The Sun Belt is currently the #1 conference based on RPI. Can we finish #1 and get the top payout? Perhaps if Coastal gets the NY6 bowl and others finish strong?

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_conf.html

Lol if that happened, not only would we never get our money, the P5 would separate the next day

(12-03-2020 07:12 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Lol if that happened, not only would we never get our money, the P5 would separate the next day

I mean #1 G5, not overall. If anything, that should make the P5 feel better since we had the best P5 wins.

(12-03-2020 07:17 PM)Appvette Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 07:12 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  Lol if that happened, not only would we never get our money, the P5 would separate the next day

I mean #1 G5, not overall. If anything, that should make the P5 feel better since we had the best P5 wins.

Ah my mistake

That would be great. We need Coastal to beat BYU and good wins for bowls(if we have them)

I guess it depends on what metric the CFP uses. I don't really know how they determine that. Sagarin seems to be pretty well accepted among most people.

Realtime RPI:
#1 - SBC
#2 - American
#3 - Mountain West
#4 - MAC
#5 - CUSA

Sagarin Ratings:
#1 - American
#2 - SBC
#3 - Mountain West
#4 - MAC
#5 - CUSA

(12-03-2020 11:47 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  I guess it depends on what metric the CFP uses. I don't really know how they determine that. Sagarin seems to be pretty well accepted among most people.

Realtime RPI:
#1 - SBC
#2 - American
#3 - Mountain West
#4 - MAC
#5 - CUSA

Sagarin Ratings:
#1 - American
#2 - SBC
#3 - Mountain West
#4 - MAC
#5 - CUSA

3rd, 4th, and 5th spot looks unanimous.

Computer rankings are really tricky with so few non-conference games and a lot of them will be weighting previous years results at least some. No way around that. I don't think we're going to be ahead of the AAC or behind the MAC or CUSA in any reputable ranking system, so the big question is who is #2.

We're slightly behind the MWC in the Massey Composite, ahead of them in Sagarin (not by much).

Here's the F+ rankings for both leagues:
20. Coastal Carolina
25. App State
31. Louisiana
34. Boise State
53. San Diego St
70. Air Force
73. Nevada
74. Georgia Southern
77. Wyoming
79. San Jose St
85. Troy
87. Georgia State
89. Fresno State
99. Hawaii
100. Colorado State
103. Arkansas State
107. South Alabama
108. Texas State
116. Utah State
119. New Mexico
122. UNLV
124. ULM

That's an average of 76 for us, 86 for the MWC.

As a supporter of the stAte program, I am so sad to see this. I'm used to us being at the top of any list of contributors in these rating lists I see every year. The natives are very restless because of this but I regret to say I don't see any groundswell of change coming from our administration.

(12-04-2020 09:52 AM)sdcritter Wrote:  As a supporter of the stAte program, I am so sad to see this. I'm used to us being at the top of any list of contributors in these rating lists I see every year. The natives are very restless because of this but I regret to say I don't see any groundswell of change coming from our administration.

Next year...

Looks to me like the SBC needs internal realignment... perhaps I’d feel differently if App and The Cajuns were to be swap divisions... automatic shoe in for conf champ game.....

(12-04-2020 11:32 AM)AppYosef Wrote:  Looks to me like the SBC needs internal realignment... perhaps I’d feel differently if App and The Cajuns were to be swap divisions... automatic shoe in for conf champ game.....

the tide is changing. in 2-3 years the west will look much stronger. the league will balance itself out in time.

(12-04-2020 11:38 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(12-04-2020 11:32 AM)AppYosef Wrote:  Looks to me like the SBC needs internal realignment... perhaps I’d feel differently if App and The Cajuns were to be swap divisions... automatic shoe in for conf champ game.....

the tide is changing. in 2-3 years the west will look much stronger. the league will balance itself out in time.

Let's not forget... the West is 2-0 versus the Big XII this year.

(12-03-2020 11:47 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  I guess it depends on what metric the CFP uses. I don't really know how they determine that. Sagarin seems to be pretty well accepted among most people.

Realtime RPI:
#1 - SBC
#2 - American
#3 - Mountain West
#4 - MAC
#5 - CUSA

Sagarin Ratings:
#1 - American
#2 - SBC
#3 - Mountain West
#4 - MAC
#5 - CUSA

Good point on Sagarin being reversed. It looks close enough to me that whichever conference finishes strongest will take it. Amazing that SBC has gone from bottom dweller to having a chance at #1 in just a few years.

(12-04-2020 11:38 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(12-04-2020 11:32 AM)AppYosef Wrote:  Looks to me like the SBC needs internal realignment... perhaps I’d feel differently if App and The Cajuns were to be swap divisions... automatic shoe in for conf champ game.....

the tide is changing. in 2-3 years the west will look much stronger. the league will balance itself out in time.

In what way is it changing? Seems to be trending down if anything.

(12-03-2020 07:03 PM)Appvette Wrote:  The Sun Belt is currently the #1 conference based on RPI. Can we finish #1 and get the top payout? Perhaps if Coastal gets the NY6 bowl and others finish strong?

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_conf.html

I believe, RPI conference rankings are heavily dependent on out of conference play. Although AAC is 12-6 ooc, those three Sun Belt over BigXII wins look good, really good to such a system.

However, reports since 2014 have been that the non-contract-bowl-conference performance shares are based on compiling the six BCS computer rankings: Anderson&Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe.

Wolfe has no ratings posted, awaiting sufficient inter-connectedness of results.

Using the other five, the average of average rankings is:

AAC: 58.6
SunBelt: 74.92
mwc: 81.99
CUSA: 88.62
MAC: 94.24

A lot of variability among the five given the different games played overall and the relative lack of out-of-conference. Sagarin skews this a little more, too, because the FCS are interspersed, and I just wasn't going to go back and figure out why each school over 130 was. Taking out Sagarin doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps (AAC is farther ahead of SunBelt, than SunBelt is of mwc).
AAC tiebreakers, when they get past CFP rankings to compilation of computer rankings use only A&H, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. Without Wolfe, that's only averaging three - as with removing Sagarin, doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps. Barring upheaval, Cincinnati to the NY6 means AAC will get about $5million more than SunBelt, and SunBelt will get about $1.4million more than mwc.

(12-04-2020 07:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 07:03 PM)Appvette Wrote:  The Sun Belt is currently the #1 conference based on RPI. Can we finish #1 and get the top payout? Perhaps if Coastal gets the NY6 bowl and others finish strong?

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_conf.html

I believe, RPI conference rankings are heavily dependent on out of conference play. Although AAC is 12-6 ooc, those three Sun Belt over BigXII wins look good, really good to such a system.

However, reports since 2014 have been that the non-contract-bowl-conference performance shares are based on compiling the six BCS computer rankings: Anderson&Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe.

Wolfe has no ratings posted, awaiting sufficient inter-connectedness of results.

Using the other five, the average of average rankings is:

AAC: 58.6
SunBelt: 74.92
mwc: 81.99
CUSA: 88.62
MAC: 94.24

A lot of variability among the five given the different games played overall and the relative lack of out-of-conference. Sagarin skews this a little more, too, because the FCS are interspersed, and I just wasn't going to go back and figure out why each school over 130 was. Taking out Sagarin doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps (AAC is farther ahead of SunBelt, than SunBelt is of mwc).
AAC tiebreakers, when they get past CFP rankings to compilation of computer rankings use only A&H, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. Without Wolfe, that's only averaging three - as with removing Sagarin, doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps. Barring upheaval, Cincinnati to the NY6 means AAC will get about $5million more than SunBelt, and SunBelt will get about $1.4million more than mwc.

Thanks for the info! I'll admit that I'll be happy with #2 given where SBC was 5 years ago.

But wouldn't the gap be even greater? Roughly $4m for NY6 and $3m+ for being #1

(12-04-2020 08:09 PM)Appvette Wrote:  

(12-04-2020 07:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 07:03 PM)Appvette Wrote:  The Sun Belt is currently the #1 conference based on RPI. Can we finish #1 and get the top payout? Perhaps if Coastal gets the NY6 bowl and others finish strong?

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_conf.html

I believe, RPI conference rankings are heavily dependent on out of conference play. Although AAC is 12-6 ooc, those three Sun Belt over BigXII wins look good, really good to such a system.

However, reports since 2014 have been that the non-contract-bowl-conference performance shares are based on compiling the six BCS computer rankings: Anderson&Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe.

Wolfe has no ratings posted, awaiting sufficient inter-connectedness of results.

Using the other five, the average of average rankings is:

AAC: 58.6
SunBelt: 74.92
mwc: 81.99
CUSA: 88.62
MAC: 94.24

A lot of variability among the five given the different games played overall and the relative lack of out-of-conference. Sagarin skews this a little more, too, because the FCS are interspersed, and I just wasn't going to go back and figure out why each school over 130 was. Taking out Sagarin doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps (AAC is farther ahead of SunBelt, than SunBelt is of mwc).
AAC tiebreakers, when they get past CFP rankings to compilation of computer rankings use only A&H, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. Without Wolfe, that's only averaging three - as with removing Sagarin, doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps. Barring upheaval, Cincinnati to the NY6 means AAC will get about $5million more than SunBelt, and SunBelt will get about $1.4million more than mwc.

Thanks for the info! I'll admit that I'll be happy with #2 given where SBC was 5 years ago.

But wouldn't the gap be even greater? Roughly $4m for NY6 and $3m+ for being #1

Reverse engineering the NCAA publishing CFP Revenue Distributions the last several years available...

Total to the group of five non-contract-bowl-conferences about $91M
The NY6 bid actually gets $4M to the conference and $2M+ for team expenses, distributed to the conference (I don't know if they have to itemize that for reimbursement, or what...and then I didn't mention it, sorry for shortcut).
Base is around $12.6M each conference.
Performance shares come to $1.4M+ each - 1 share to fifth place, 2 to fourth, 3 to third, 4 to second, 5 to first.

So in the 2018-19 year (2018 season), AAC got the NY6 bid but was second best for four shares -- $12.6M + $6.2M + $5.9M = $24.5M
mwc got 5 shares -- $12.6M + $7.35M= $20M
SunBelt was third for three shares -- 12.6M + $4,41 = $17M
That's all at https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champio...bution.pdf


In the 2017-18 year (2017 season), AAC got the NY6 bid and first overall for five shares total $25.6M.
mwc no bid, second overall was at $18.2M
SunBelt that year was fifth overall, base plus one share for $14M

NCAA has yet to post last year's distribution - it's been between April-July until this year. This frustrates me.

(12-04-2020 08:45 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-04-2020 08:09 PM)Appvette Wrote:  

(12-04-2020 07:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 07:03 PM)Appvette Wrote:  The Sun Belt is currently the #1 conference based on RPI. Can we finish #1 and get the top payout? Perhaps if Coastal gets the NY6 bowl and others finish strong?

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_conf.html

I believe, RPI conference rankings are heavily dependent on out of conference play. Although AAC is 12-6 ooc, those three Sun Belt over BigXII wins look good, really good to such a system.

However, reports since 2014 have been that the non-contract-bowl-conference performance shares are based on compiling the six BCS computer rankings: Anderson&Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe.

Wolfe has no ratings posted, awaiting sufficient inter-connectedness of results.

Using the other five, the average of average rankings is:

AAC: 58.6
SunBelt: 74.92
mwc: 81.99
CUSA: 88.62
MAC: 94.24

A lot of variability among the five given the different games played overall and the relative lack of out-of-conference. Sagarin skews this a little more, too, because the FCS are interspersed, and I just wasn't going to go back and figure out why each school over 130 was. Taking out Sagarin doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps (AAC is farther ahead of SunBelt, than SunBelt is of mwc).
AAC tiebreakers, when they get past CFP rankings to compilation of computer rankings use only A&H, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. Without Wolfe, that's only averaging three - as with removing Sagarin, doesn't change the overall order or the magnitude of the gaps. Barring upheaval, Cincinnati to the NY6 means AAC will get about $5million more than SunBelt, and SunBelt will get about $1.4million more than mwc.

Thanks for the info! I'll admit that I'll be happy with #2 given where SBC was 5 years ago.

But wouldn't the gap be even greater? Roughly $4m for NY6 and $3m+ for being #1

Reverse engineering the NCAA publishing CFP Revenue Distributions the last several years available...

Total to the group of five non-contract-bowl-conferences about $91M
The NY6 bid actually gets $4M to the conference and $2M+ for team expenses, distributed to the conference (I don't know if they have to itemize that for reimbursement, or what...and then I didn't mention it, sorry for shortcut).
Base is around $12.6M each conference.
Performance shares come to $1.4M+ each - 1 share to fifth place, 2 to fourth, 3 to third, 4 to second, 5 to first.

So in the 2018-19 year (2018 season), AAC got the NY6 bid but was second best for four shares -- $12.6M + $6.2M + $5.9M = $24.5M
mwc got 5 shares -- $12.6M + $7.35M= $20M
SunBelt was third for three shares -- 12.6M + $4,41 = $17M
That's all at https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champio...bution.pdf


In the 2017-18 year (2017 season), AAC got the NY6 bid and first overall for five shares total $25.6M.
mwc no bid, second overall was at $18.2M
SunBelt that year was fifth overall, base plus one share for $14M

NCAA has yet to post last year's distribution - it's been between April-July until this year. This frustrates me.

Ahhh, that $2m in expenses for NY6 was the part I was missing. Thanks!

Coastal will have their hands full today. BYU is top 5 kind of good.