UN and Iowa leave, then go with a regional split:

North/West: UM, MSU, Wisconsin, Minn, NW, Illinois
South/East: OSU, PSU, UM, RU, Indiana, Purdue

(08-11-2020 11:01 PM)upstatexmosquito Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:53 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  Maybe a stretch here... But thoughts on Buffalo (if they couldn't get Syracuse) and wanted someone east?

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

Academically and culturally, Buffalo is a decent fit. AAU and the de facto flagship of SUNY. Athletically, definitely not.

I have a feeling if SUNY didn’t force them to drop D1 athletics in 1970, they would’ve wound up in the Big East and who knows how their athletics would’ve developed, maybe they’d be in the ACC or B1G today, or at the very least AAC.

I've been saying the same things for years. Doubly so if the Bills hadn't gotten a stadium and had to move.

(08-12-2020 05:39 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  Even in a hypothetical world the Big 12 wouldn't take Nebraska back, at least not by themselves.

We definitely would. Round-robin in both FB and BB. But does the latter mean we need to stay at 11, or can 12 work.

(08-11-2020 10:50 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:38 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Schools I think B1G would target that decline before settling on Mizzou:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Syracuse

Syracuse *might* be shaken loose but the others will stand firm.

The first three on your list would say no for sure. After that, who knows.

What happens if the Big Ten goes to UNC and says, "Here's your offer. You have 24 hours to accept. If you don't accept, we will just keep moving down our list of ACC members until one of them says yes." The Chapel Hill decision makers would know that someone is going to leave the ACC, and why sit around and watch another school pick up that extra $25 million a year in conference money when they could do it themselves?

We're not moving to the B1G, neither will UVa nor Duke.
Maybe the Big Ten can pick off one of the schools up north.

(08-12-2020 05:16 AM)schmolik Wrote:  If Iowa leaves with Nebraska, stand pat at 12 and enjoy two fewer mouths to feed and no schools on the wrong side of the river.

Obviously there would be a ton of ACC schools that I would want. Assume none of them break the GOR.

If Nebraska only leaves, make a run at Missouri (I know they're West but they at least border the river as opposed to Nebraska). Maybe Kentucky?

Then we're down to non P5. I'd say UConn. Yes, their football sucks but who's left? Temple? Cincinnati? UConn at least brings a new market and the best academics. I would love Temple and Penn State is pretty far away from Philly (almost 200 miles between Beaver Stadium and Lincoln Financial Field).

(08-11-2020 10:39 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:35 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Missouri to the Big 10 actually makes more sense with Nebraska than without Nebraska. With Nebraska they have an old Big 8 team to partner with. They have an opportunity for Kansas/OK to join as well. Without Nebraska, I'd say that Big 10 is better off moving east and taking Syracuse. They are in the same boat as Nebraska as a former AAU, and the divisions might shift a little, but they make sense (assuming ACC schools are up for grabs). If ACC schools aren't up for grabs, maybe UConn after all? Or maybe just raid the PAC and get Washington or Oregon

Syracuse would give them clean divisions. Puts both Indiana schools in the West eliminating any need for crossovers.

The ACC has a GOR until 2037. Nobody from the ACC is going anywhere. The B12's GOR runs out with its current TV deal, in 2025 I believe. The SEC has no GOR. Thus, Missouri or a current B12 member would be the most likely replacement for Nebraska under such a hypothetical.

All of these posts ignore that every P5 conference currently has a GoR. Media has said the SEC does as well.

I think the most likely scenario, if Nebraska is kicked out, is that the Big 12 will hold at 11 and the B1G will hold at 13 until the GoR of their preferred targets expire. They'll get the other conferences to pass a championship game deregulation rule that allows for conferences to play a CCG regardless of their conference schedule approach.

But, if they do add teams for some reason, the Big 12 will add UCF or Cincinnati to pair with Nebraska. UCF is a stronger candidate based on football success and significantly larger TV market, while Cincy offers basketball success and a travel partner for WVU. Good news for UCF is that only Kansas and maybe Iowa State give a crap about MBB in the Big 12, unlike an ACC scenario, where I think Cincy would lead us for a spot. Colorado State might be a distant 3rd. I think BYU is dead-on-arrival because of their gay rights issues, which were a major roadblock back in 2015-16. Given the current social situation in the US, I doubt the Big 12 would invite criticism in that regard at all.

For the B1G, their options are more limited given what they seek in a member in terms of institutional fit with the AAU and such. Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice are the only AAU members of the G5, and they don't seem likely candidates. UConn is actually the best fit of non-P5 programs for the B1G. If I'm UConn and approached for a B1G offer, I accept and pay the Big East their $20m buyout or whatever it is that UConn agreed to. The B1G is a lot more limited in options without being able to raid another P5 than the Big 12 is.

However, we could see the B1G go with some sort of outlandish wildcard. A decade ago when Nebraska and all were going on, the B1G was rumored to have talked with Cornell and UToronto; I doubt either are realistic, but it shows that the B1G may cast a wide net. They currently have Johns Hopkins as an affiliate member, and JHU could move from D-3 to D-1 now if they were interested in doing so.

(08-12-2020 09:50 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  All of these posts ignore that every P5 conference currently has a GoR. Media has said the SEC does as well.

I think the most likely scenario, if Nebraska is kicked out, is that the Big 12 will hold at 11 and the B1G will hold at 13 until the GoR of their preferred targets expire. They'll get the other conferences to pass a championship game deregulation rule that allows for conferences to play a CCG regardless of their conference schedule approach.

But, if they do add teams for some reason, the Big 12 will add UCF or Cincinnati to pair with Nebraska. UCF is a stronger candidate based on football success and significantly larger TV market, while Cincy offers basketball success and a travel partner for WVU. Good news for UCF is that only Kansas and maybe Iowa State give a crap about MBB in the Big 12, unlike an ACC scenario, where I think Cincy would lead us for a spot. Colorado State might be a distant 3rd. I think BYU is dead-on-arrival because of their gay rights issues, which were a major roadblock back in 2015-16. Given the current social situation in the US, I doubt the Big 12 would invite criticism in that regard at all.

For the B1G, their options are more limited given what they seek in a member in terms of institutional fit with the AAU and such. Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice are the only AAU members of the G5, and they don't seem likely candidates. UConn is actually the best fit of non-P5 programs for the B1G. If I'm UConn and approached for a B1G offer, I accept and pay the Big East their $20m buyout or whatever it is that UConn agreed to. The B1G is a lot more limited in options without being able to raid another P5 than the Big 12 is.

However, we could see the B1G go with some sort of outlandish wildcard. A decade ago when Nebraska and all were going on, the B1G was rumored to have talked with Cornell and UToronto; I doubt either are realistic, but it shows that the B1G may cast a wide net. They currently have Johns Hopkins as an affiliate member, and JHU could move from D-3 to D-1 now if they were interested in doing so.

Cornell fits the academic and cultural profiles (first tier academics and land grant college) but athletics (other than hockey and lacrosse, most of the sports would be uncompetitive) and facilities (a new 50,000 seat stadium and a 10,000 capacity arena would be needed).

(08-12-2020 10:01 AM)whittx Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 09:50 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  All of these posts ignore that every P5 conference currently has a GoR. Media has said the SEC does as well.

I think the most likely scenario, if Nebraska is kicked out, is that the Big 12 will hold at 11 and the B1G will hold at 13 until the GoR of their preferred targets expire. They'll get the other conferences to pass a championship game deregulation rule that allows for conferences to play a CCG regardless of their conference schedule approach.

But, if they do add teams for some reason, the Big 12 will add UCF or Cincinnati to pair with Nebraska. UCF is a stronger candidate based on football success and significantly larger TV market, while Cincy offers basketball success and a travel partner for WVU. Good news for UCF is that only Kansas and maybe Iowa State give a crap about MBB in the Big 12, unlike an ACC scenario, where I think Cincy would lead us for a spot. Colorado State might be a distant 3rd. I think BYU is dead-on-arrival because of their gay rights issues, which were a major roadblock back in 2015-16. Given the current social situation in the US, I doubt the Big 12 would invite criticism in that regard at all.

For the B1G, their options are more limited given what they seek in a member in terms of institutional fit with the AAU and such. Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice are the only AAU members of the G5, and they don't seem likely candidates. UConn is actually the best fit of non-P5 programs for the B1G. If I'm UConn and approached for a B1G offer, I accept and pay the Big East their $20m buyout or whatever it is that UConn agreed to. The B1G is a lot more limited in options without being able to raid another P5 than the Big 12 is.

However, we could see the B1G go with some sort of outlandish wildcard. A decade ago when Nebraska and all were going on, the B1G was rumored to have talked with Cornell and UToronto; I doubt either are realistic, but it shows that the B1G may cast a wide net. They currently have Johns Hopkins as an affiliate member, and JHU could move from D-3 to D-1 now if they were interested in doing so.

Cornell fits the academic and cultural profiles (first tier academics and land grant college) but athletics (other than hockey and lacrosse, most of the sports would be uncompetitive) and facilities (a new 50,000 seat stadium and a 10,000 capacity arena would be needed).

Yeah, but there would be a transition period, and I'd expect Cornell or Johns Hopkins could identify donors to help with upgrading facilities.* Recruiting would immediately step up during a transition. Presumably they would still have to step up to FCS for 2-3 years and then to FBS, but I'd assume the B1G would get a CCG waiver during that time. By the time they actually came into the conference, I'd expect they'd have a decent level of talent and depth accumulated.

I just can't see Cornell leaving the Ivy League. As great as the B1G is academically, it isn't the Ivy League and doesn't have that sort of notoriety. JHU, on the other hand, could boost its profile as an elite international university through the B1G.

*JHU could presumably play at the Ravens' stadium until a more appropriate facility is constructed. Baltimore also has an 11,000 seat municipal arena.

Nebraska's not leaving. There were a lot of hurt feelings yesterday and some comments made before cooler heads prevailed. Kevin Warren could have stepped in and doused the fires, but he added to it with his comments.

The focus now is how to make spring ball work.

(08-12-2020 05:28 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 11:19 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  [i]

(08-11-2020 10:30 PM)Statefan Wrote:  If the B10 loses Nebraska, they might not be able to hold Penn State.

And where would Penn State go? The ACC? As I was told at an alumni gathering two years ago: “Penn State in the ACC is like a big fish surrounded by small fish.”

Unlike Nebraska, Penn State is a Big Ten school. PSU just finished a 2-2 with Pitt and it’s getting a 1-1 with West Virginia. PSU won’t give up their annual games against Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State plus exposure in the New York to Washington corridor for anything the ACC offers.

It must have been an old alumni. It’s been nearly 35 years since Penn State won a national title in anything. They’ve been Ohio State’s b itch since 1993. They haven’t beaten OSU in back to back seasons since joining The Big Ten. They have lost 7 of the last 8 to OSU.

Granted Penn State was a once proud program. For you to carry a quote from some leather helmet codger here referring to Penn State a “Big Fish” shows how out of touch you are with college football.

It’s more than college football. I know you’re an ACC fanboy so I don’t take it personally.

Put Penn State in the ACC. It’s not a fit in any shape or form. Nothing against the ACC. It’s just not a good fit for the Nittany Lions. The ACC is a good fit for the likes of Pitt, Syracuse and BC not for the Penn States of the world.

(08-12-2020 11:48 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 05:28 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 11:19 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  [i]

(08-11-2020 10:30 PM)Statefan Wrote:  If the B10 loses Nebraska, they might not be able to hold Penn State.

And where would Penn State go? The ACC? As I was told at an alumni gathering two years ago: “Penn State in the ACC is like a big fish surrounded by small fish.”

Unlike Nebraska, Penn State is a Big Ten school. PSU just finished a 2-2 with Pitt and it’s getting a 1-1 with West Virginia. PSU won’t give up their annual games against Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State plus exposure in the New York to Washington corridor for anything the ACC offers.

It must have been an old alumni. It’s been nearly 35 years since Penn State won a national title in anything. They’ve been Ohio State’s b itch since 1993. They haven’t beaten OSU in back to back seasons since joining The Big Ten. They have lost 7 of the last 8 to OSU.

Granted Penn State was a once proud program. For you to carry a quote from some leather helmet codger here referring to Penn State a “Big Fish” shows how out of touch you are with college football.

It’s more than college football. I know you’re an ACC fanboy so I don’t take it personally.

Put Penn State in the ACC. It’s not a fit in any shape or form. Nothing against the ACC. It’s just not a good fit for the Nittany Lions. The ACC is a good fit for the likes of Pitt, Syracuse and BC not for the Penn States of the world.

No... not an ACC fanboy
Some here will get a kick out of that. Knowing how critical I have been of The ACC

I happen to agree with you. Penn State is out of place in The Big Ten but would be even more so in The ACC. It is what it is because the idea of a true eastern football league is dead. The idea that the Lambert Trophy would go to the champion of a true eastern league died when PSU joined The Big Ten.

Fans of old eastern football like me know we missed an opportunity too.

ECU
For the Big 10’s new “Southern Wing”

(08-12-2020 12:02 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 11:48 AM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 05:28 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 11:19 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  [i]

(08-11-2020 10:30 PM)Statefan Wrote:  If the B10 loses Nebraska, they might not be able to hold Penn State.

And where would Penn State go? The ACC? As I was told at an alumni gathering two years ago: “Penn State in the ACC is like a big fish surrounded by small fish.”

Unlike Nebraska, Penn State is a Big Ten school. PSU just finished a 2-2 with Pitt and it’s getting a 1-1 with West Virginia. PSU won’t give up their annual games against Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State plus exposure in the New York to Washington corridor for anything the ACC offers.

It must have been an old alumni. It’s been nearly 35 years since Penn State won a national title in anything. They’ve been Ohio State’s b itch since 1993. They haven’t beaten OSU in back to back seasons since joining The Big Ten. They have lost 7 of the last 8 to OSU.

Granted Penn State was a once proud program. For you to carry a quote from some leather helmet codger here referring to Penn State a “Big Fish” shows how out of touch you are with college football.

It’s more than college football. I know you’re an ACC fanboy so I don’t take it personally.

Put Penn State in the ACC. It’s not a fit in any shape or form. Nothing against the ACC. It’s just not a good fit for the Nittany Lions. The ACC is a good fit for the likes of Pitt, Syracuse and BC not for the Penn States of the world.

No... not an ACC fanboy
Some here will get a kick out of that. Knowing how critical I have been of The ACC

I happen to agree with you. Penn State is out of place in The Big Ten but would be even more so in The ACC. It is what it is because the idea of a true eastern football league is dead. The idea that the Lambert Trophy would go to the champion of a true eastern league died when PSU joined The Big Ten.

Fans of old eastern football like me know we missed an opportunity too.

It’s a shame a true Eastern football league never materialized.

(08-12-2020 10:07 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 10:01 AM)whittx Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 09:50 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  All of these posts ignore that every P5 conference currently has a GoR. Media has said the SEC does as well.

I think the most likely scenario, if Nebraska is kicked out, is that the Big 12 will hold at 11 and the B1G will hold at 13 until the GoR of their preferred targets expire. They'll get the other conferences to pass a championship game deregulation rule that allows for conferences to play a CCG regardless of their conference schedule approach.

But, if they do add teams for some reason, the Big 12 will add UCF or Cincinnati to pair with Nebraska. UCF is a stronger candidate based on football success and significantly larger TV market, while Cincy offers basketball success and a travel partner for WVU. Good news for UCF is that only Kansas and maybe Iowa State give a crap about MBB in the Big 12, unlike an ACC scenario, where I think Cincy would lead us for a spot. Colorado State might be a distant 3rd. I think BYU is dead-on-arrival because of their gay rights issues, which were a major roadblock back in 2015-16. Given the current social situation in the US, I doubt the Big 12 would invite criticism in that regard at all.

For the B1G, their options are more limited given what they seek in a member in terms of institutional fit with the AAU and such. Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice are the only AAU members of the G5, and they don't seem likely candidates. UConn is actually the best fit of non-P5 programs for the B1G. If I'm UConn and approached for a B1G offer, I accept and pay the Big East their $20m buyout or whatever it is that UConn agreed to. The B1G is a lot more limited in options without being able to raid another P5 than the Big 12 is.

However, we could see the B1G go with some sort of outlandish wildcard. A decade ago when Nebraska and all were going on, the B1G was rumored to have talked with Cornell and UToronto; I doubt either are realistic, but it shows that the B1G may cast a wide net. They currently have Johns Hopkins as an affiliate member, and JHU could move from D-3 to D-1 now if they were interested in doing so.

Cornell fits the academic and cultural profiles (first tier academics and land grant college) but athletics (other than hockey and lacrosse, most of the sports would be uncompetitive) and facilities (a new 50,000 seat stadium and a 10,000 capacity arena would be needed).

Yeah, but there would be a transition period, and I'd expect Cornell or Johns Hopkins could identify donors to help with upgrading facilities.* Recruiting would immediately step up during a transition. Presumably they would still have to step up to FCS for 2-3 years and then to FBS, but I'd assume the B1G would get a CCG waiver during that time. By the time they actually came into the conference, I'd expect they'd have a decent level of talent and depth accumulated.

I just can't see Cornell leaving the Ivy League. As great as the B1G is academically, it isn't the Ivy League and doesn't have that sort of notoriety. JHU, on the other hand, could boost its profile as an elite international university through the B1G.

*JHU could presumably play at the Ravens' stadium until a more appropriate facility is constructed. Baltimore also has an 11,000 seat municipal arena.

Neither would I. The Ivy League gives Cornell a cache that no other Land Grant has. By joining the B1G, they become one of a like kind instead of being to sell the unique ability to get an actual Ivy League education at less than Ivy League prices (for the NY residents attending one of the 4 statutory (state) colleges at Cornell.

(08-11-2020 10:50 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:38 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Schools I think B1G would target that decline before settling on Mizzou:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Syracuse

Syracuse *might* be shaken loose but the others will stand firm.

The first three on your list would say no for sure. After that, who knows.

What happens if the Big Ten goes to UNC and says, "Here's your offer. You have 24 hours to accept. If you don't accept, we will just keep moving down our list of ACC members until one of them says yes." The Chapel Hill decision makers would know that someone is going to leave the ACC, and why sit around and watch another school pick up that extra $25 million a year in conference money when they could do it themselves?

This has always been the vulnerability of the ACC. And once the new SEC & Big 10 contracts are made effective in 2024-5 the gap only grows and grows significantly more. And to your point their leadership at their schools already know this and COVID 19 only stresses that situation more as Federal and State budgets will be stretched to the limits and funding will be hard to come by, especially with Boomers retiring and expiring, private business at an all time low, and the subsequent generations burdened by hyper inflated college education debt.

But I do think what is more likely is that the Big 10 offers both Virginia and North Carolina and makes them a sweet deal knowing they likely have to take Duke as well. There's your 16 member Big 10. If things get wild PItt could be in the mix with Virginia if North Carolina made a deal with the SEC to take N.C. State and Duke. The question would be how much does the SEC want a presence in North Carolina?

My guess is the SEC would take Clemson and Florida State and wait on Va Tech and N.C. State if that is what they wanted. Virginia Tech has more athletic upside than Virginia and N.C. State plants the flag in North Carolina with a state school.

Now if North Carolina and Duke just wanted to escape to the SEC like they were concerned about in 2010-1 then the SEC jumps on that, picks up Clemson and Florida State and still calls it a day. What's more is that from a basketball and football perspective this gives ESPN full access to the brands they want anyway.

Then the question becomes does the rebuilding Big 12 pick up Arkansas and Missouri and Notre Dame as a partial as they would be the most likely to accommodate the Irish on those terms. If these two moves seem unlikely remember their history. Broyles wanted the SEC because he believed, probably correctly, that Arkansas was about to be left out of the formation of the Big 12 which was being discussed at the time Arkansas jumped. The Hogs are accepted by all SEC schools and they have made a home here, but clearly the SEC was an escape and clearly their interests more closely ally with Texas. Missouri jumped for a chair when the music was about to stop. They have very very little history with SEC schools. Vanderbilt was the only school they had played more than 5 times when they joined the SEC (A&M excluded). If Nebraska and Colorado return to the Big 12 and Arkansas felt welcomed and the SEC could effectively grow to the East without losing revenue in the exchange then from a business perspective anything is possible. Arkansas, and Missouri very soon, will be facing the same dilemma that Nebraska faces, remain for the money and lose you historical roots and your regional appeal, or do what it is said none of can do successfully, return to home after a lifetime away. For Missouri the move is still a blip. For Arkansas it's been a long time

But as far as Big 10 backfill goes if Nebraska returns Oklahoma has zero reason to leave and a prime example as to why not to even consider it. Texas was never leaving anyway. Notre Dame will choose whatever enables their business model to continue as is and that is not the Big 10 or SEC for that matter. So the only schools vulnerable for a move would be those from the ACC, or perhaps Cal, U.C.L.A., Oregon, and Washington, in which case Colorado makes a good bridge for the Big 10. But if that is to be the case I think the Big 10 will have exhausted its efforts to break the ACC first, and quite frankly without Nebraska even Colorado is a stretch.

(08-11-2020 10:30 PM)Statefan Wrote:  If the B10 loses Nebraska, they might not be able to hold Penn State.

BINGO - and for essentially the same reason, too.

That would also leave Maryland and Rutgers on islands - and the Big Ten wondering how they ever ended up with those two!

(08-12-2020 01:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:50 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:38 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Schools I think B1G would target that decline before settling on Mizzou:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Syracuse

Syracuse *might* be shaken loose but the others will stand firm.

The first three on your list would say no for sure. After that, who knows.

What happens if the Big Ten goes to UNC and says, "Here's your offer. You have 24 hours to accept. If you don't accept, we will just keep moving down our list of ACC members until one of them says yes." The Chapel Hill decision makers would know that someone is going to leave the ACC, and why sit around and watch another school pick up that extra $25 million a year in conference money when they could do it themselves?

This has always been the vulnerability of the ACC. And once the new SEC & Big 10 contracts are made effective in 2024-5 the gap only grows and grows significantly more. And to your point their leadership at their schools already know this and COVID 19 only stresses that situation more as Federal and State budgets will be stretched to the limits and funding will be hard to come by, especially with Boomers retiring and expiring, private business at an all time low, and the subsequent generations burdened by hyper inflated college education debt.

But I do think what is more likely is that the Big 10 offers both Virginia and North Carolina and makes them a sweet deal knowing they likely have to take Duke as well. There's your 16 member Big 10. If things get wild PItt could be in the mix with Virginia if North Carolina made a deal with the SEC to take N.C. State and Duke. The question would be how much does the SEC want a presence in North Carolina?

My guess is the SEC would take Clemson and Florida State and wait on Va Tech and N.C. State if that is what they wanted. Virginia Tech has more athletic upside than Virginia and N.C. State plants the flag in North Carolina with a state school.

Now if North Carolina and Duke just wanted to escape to the SEC like they were concerned about in 2010-1 then the SEC jumps on that, picks up Clemson and Florida State and still calls it a day. What's more is that from a basketball and football perspective this gives ESPN full access to the brands they want anyway.

Then the question becomes does the rebuilding Big 12 pick up Arkansas and Missouri and Notre Dame as a partial as they would be the most likely to accommodate the Irish on those terms.

You keep staring into that busted crystal ball trying to use a worn out paradigm to predict what happens in 2037. Are you kidding me?

17 years from now... assuming no one signs a GOR extension.. if there is a such thing

Demographics aren’t with The SEC and Big Ten remaining where they are.
You white folks simply ain’t birthing enough babies..lol

And the babies you are having ain’t playing football. Most are playing that other kind of football that The SEC doesn’t even play.

I may be completely wrong but I just don’t see college football being the end all be all a decade from now. Not to mention two decades from now.

How about I bet The SEC starts playing real football, what you white folks call soccer, before the ACC’s GOR expires....

Penn St’s reason for being in the Big Ten is being with Ohio St and Michigan.

Nebraska leaving would have no impact on anything for Penn St. If anything, it could help if the replacement is an eastern school.

(08-12-2020 01:19 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-12-2020 01:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:50 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-11-2020 10:38 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Schools I think B1G would target that decline before settling on Mizzou:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Syracuse

Syracuse *might* be shaken loose but the others will stand firm.

The first three on your list would say no for sure. After that, who knows.

What happens if the Big Ten goes to UNC and says, "Here's your offer. You have 24 hours to accept. If you don't accept, we will just keep moving down our list of ACC members until one of them says yes." The Chapel Hill decision makers would know that someone is going to leave the ACC, and why sit around and watch another school pick up that extra $25 million a year in conference money when they could do it themselves?

This has always been the vulnerability of the ACC. And once the new SEC & Big 10 contracts are made effective in 2024-5 the gap only grows and grows significantly more. And to your point their leadership at their schools already know this and COVID 19 only stresses that situation more as Federal and State budgets will be stretched to the limits and funding will be hard to come by, especially with Boomers retiring and expiring, private business at an all time low, and the subsequent generations burdened by hyper inflated college education debt.

But I do think what is more likely is that the Big 10 offers both Virginia and North Carolina and makes them a sweet deal knowing they likely have to take Duke as well. There's your 16 member Big 10. If things get wild PItt could be in the mix with Virginia if North Carolina made a deal with the SEC to take N.C. State and Duke. The question would be how much does the SEC want a presence in North Carolina?

My guess is the SEC would take Clemson and Florida State and wait on Va Tech and N.C. State if that is what they wanted. Virginia Tech has more athletic upside than Virginia and N.C. State plants the flag in North Carolina with a state school.

Now if North Carolina and Duke just wanted to escape to the SEC like they were concerned about in 2010-1 then the SEC jumps on that, picks up Clemson and Florida State and still calls it a day. What's more is that from a basketball and football perspective this gives ESPN full access to the brands they want anyway.

Then the question becomes does the rebuilding Big 12 pick up Arkansas and Missouri and Notre Dame as a partial as they would be the most likely to accommodate the Irish on those terms.

You keep staring into that busted crystal ball trying to use a worn out paradigm to predict what happens in 2037. Are you kidding me?

17 years from now... assuming no one signs a GOR extension.. if there is a such thing

Demographics aren’t with The SEC and Big Ten remaining where they are.
You white folks simply ain’t birthing enough babies..lol

And the babies you are having ain’t playing football. Most are playing that other kind of football that The SEC doesn’t even play.

I may be completely wrong but I just don’t see college football being the end all be all a decade from now. Not to mention two decades from now.

How about I bet The SEC starts playing real football, what you white folks call soccer, before the ACC’s GOR expires....

Jim my crystal ball on football, as stated in posts on this board, is not much different. But the boys down here in Dixie aren't playing soccer, and I'm talking about right now and they aren't playing lacrosse either. They mostly play baseball in private organized travel leagues.

But you can bury your head in the sand on the economics if you wish but they are much more of a demonstrable factor now than they were in '92 when the ACC was 2 million ahead of the SEC in earnings, and when in 2010 the SEC was about 7 million ahead of the ACC, because in 2024 the SEC will be doubling the ACC's revenue and the Big 10 will be right there as well.

Moves won't be made for sports, but for revenue. What's going to happen to football is it will remain for the foreseeable future but it will consolidate faster and more compactly than it has already. Football is a regional sport now. It's located mostly on a line from South Carolina through Tennessee and Southward and into Texas and Oklahoma. It exists in pockets in Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania and Iowa. And that trend is only going to intensify.

So the demographics are on the side of the SEC because the schools making the most and playing the better football are primarily Deep South, even in the ACC.

What COVID is going to do is put to rest the myths surrounding a legal instrument that prior to college sports only really applied to musical artists and performers. Those are individuals, not state schools supported by state taxpayers and answerable to state legislatures. The only thing that has time honored acknowledgment by the courts are exit fees which have for the most part been limited to 1 year's full media revenue. The exorbitant exit fee and the GOR are really not legally tested. In 2010-2 the amounts involved in moves weren't enough to cover the legal costs involved. In 2024 when the remainder of the ACC contract is 13 years and the difference is 32 million a year or more rest assured somebody will finally put them to the test. The risk of legal fees running into the 10 or 15 million range will be well worth the effort when 400 million plus is on the line.

Now to your initial assessment the latent question is will people even care about sports after they have been highly politicized, overpriced, and made miserable by ESPN announcers? That may be a more viable question moving forward.