FYI...moderator PSA...If this thread turns political, it goes bye bye. So far so good.

(06-19-2020 09:19 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  FYI...moderator PSA...If this thread turns political, it goes bye bye. So far so good.

(06-18-2020 10:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  The big problem, right now, is that the "first wave" of Covid-19 is not dissipating in the U.S. in many U.S. States. The pandemic is out of control in the U.S. right now, because such a large part of the population is not taking appropriate precautions (not wearing face masks/coverings).

In response to the current upsurge of cases, at least 10 mayors of the largest cities in Arizona have just issued orders requiring people to wear masks in indoor public spaces, as has the Governor of California. These orders were considered necessary because voluntary mask wearing has been inadequate to prevent the pandemic from continuing to rage out of control.

The requirement to wear face coverings has brought the massive epidemic in the State of New York under control. Until there is an effective vaccine, it's the only thing that can be done to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

Perhaps there could be a football season with some combination of testing, tracing, sequestering, and mask wearing. But housing athletes in dormitories with two students per room might be catastrophic, unless they wear masks inside their dorms and sleep with them on.

I don't claim to be an expert, but I'd guess New York more benefited more from heard immunity than masks.

Also the thought that we need to wait for a vaccine. That's a huge gamble. To my knowledge, there has never been a vaccine for Covid. Have you ever heard the phrase "there is no cure for the common cold"? Well the common cold is a strand of Covid.

Or maybe I haven't clue of what I'm talking about. Let's see how it plays out.

Great we can see stats on ventilators, testings, positives, deaths, hospitalization, etc by city/county.

As people are trying to understand the best course of action while we wait for a hopeful cure some months or year(s) out, would be nice to have stats shown next to the ones above by city/county, unemployment filings, businesses closed, bankruptcy, unemployment rate, city financials/lost rev, federal spending, untreated medical, etc.

Unfortunately, this isn’t going to disappear by masks, gloves, toilet paper, or staying in our homes.

(06-18-2020 06:31 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I tried to listen to the guy in the beginning because he was supposed to be a leader and a doctor and very knowledgeable. But the more he talks the more I doubt his intentions are good. It's went from "flatten the curve" to "keep everything almost completely shutdown indefinitely".

Doc Fauch is really getting on my nerves. He enjoys the limelight way too much for my liking.

(06-19-2020 11:27 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(06-18-2020 10:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  The big problem, right now, is that the "first wave" of Covid-19 is not dissipating in the U.S. in many U.S. States. The pandemic is out of control in the U.S. right now, because such a large part of the population is not taking appropriate precautions (not wearing face masks/coverings).

In response to the current upsurge of cases, at least 10 mayors of the largest cities in Arizona have just issued orders requiring people to wear masks in indoor public spaces, as has the Governor of California. These orders were considered necessary because voluntary mask wearing has been inadequate to prevent the pandemic from continuing to rage out of control.

The requirement to wear face coverings has brought the massive epidemic in the State of New York under control. Until there is an effective vaccine, it's the only thing that can be done to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

Perhaps there could be a football season with some combination of testing, tracing, sequestering, and mask wearing. But housing athletes in dormitories with two students per room might be catastrophic, unless they wear masks inside their dorms and sleep with them on.

I don't claim to be an expert, but I'd guess New York more benefited more from heard immunity than masks.

Also the thought that we need to wait for a vaccine. That's a huge gamble. To my knowledge, there has never been a vaccine for Covid. Have you ever heard the phrase "there is no cure for the common cold"? Well the common cold is a strand of Covid.

Or maybe I haven't clue of what I'm talking about. Let's see how it plays out.

The phrase "no cure for common cold" doesn't say anything about our ability to find a cure - and more about where researchers want to spend their time and limited funding imo. First, RNA viruses mutate like crazy - see the yearly guess for the flu vaccine. So a vaccine for this year's common cold, even if you could develop it that fast, likely would be ineffective next year. Second, a common cold is a minor inconvenience - unlike covid-19 or even the flu. Why spend all that time and money?

(06-18-2020 06:31 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I tried to listen to the guy in the beginning because he was supposed to be a leader and a doctor and very knowledgeable. But the more he talks the more I doubt his intentions are good. It's went from "flatten the curve" to "keep everything almost completely shutdown indefinitely".

Because you didn't flatten the curve...

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(06-18-2020 06:40 PM)PirateJP Wrote:  

(06-18-2020 06:31 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I tried to listen to the guy in the beginning because he was supposed to be a leader and a doctor and very knowledgeable. But the more he talks the more I doubt his intentions are good. It's went from "flatten the curve" to "keep everything almost completely shutdown indefinitely".

That’s how it starts with guys like him, see how much you can get away with (and for the most part the country was very understanding), but then they move the goal posts, and that’s when people start to get angry. But I’ll leave the political discussion to the spin room.

I'll just offer that South Korea with 50M has 12k and 280 deaths. That's not political, that's just not being dumb.

I mean that's roughly the same as Nevada or Arkansas or Kentucky.

But sure blame people who actually have spent 40 or 50 years studying diseases exactly like this one.

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(06-19-2020 12:09 PM)smu89 Wrote:  Great we can see stats on ventilators, testings, positives, deaths, hospitalization, etc by city/county.

As people are trying to understand the best course of action while we wait for a hopeful cure some months or year(s) out, would be nice to have stats shown next to the ones above by city/county, unemployment filings, businesses closed, bankruptcy, unemployment rate, city financials/lost rev, federal spending, untreated medical, etc.

It's definitely a rock/hard place thing, and it (like too many other things) has become too political. However you want to slice it, the number of deaths and the incidence of death is up. The best way to examine this without any inference is to look at these statistics from the state of Michigan, which tracks deaths by month:

https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/pha/osr/Pro...Counts.asp

Here are the total deaths in Michigan between January and May (since June's not done yet) by year:

2016 = 40,441
2017 = 41,707
2018 = 42,480
2019 = 40,935
2020 = 47,725

mean for 2016-2019 = 41,391 (rounded slightly up)

Increase in total death rate in Michigan in 2020 = 1.138x

While I can't find the total number of deaths in the US in 2019, I did find that that number in 2017 was 2,813,503. Using that increase factor we just calculated for Michigan (which, I grant you isn't a guarantee that it would be the same across all states, but it's not an unreasonable assumption) that would mean that we could expect 388,263 (rounded slightly down) more people to die this year (eerily similar to the total number of US deaths in WW2, which is 416,800). Even if you only ascribe roughly 2/3 of that to COVID, that's more than a quarter of a million US deaths to the disease. Just saying "oh well, them's the breaks, we need the economy to remain strong" is easy for you to say if you or a loved one isn't in that quarter million of people. So I don't disagree that those numbers should all be used, but saving a strong economy when it comes at a literal cost of human life is a craven philosophy, in my opinion.

Quote:Unfortunately, this isn’t going to disappear by masks, gloves, toilet paper, or staying in our homes.

Sadly, this is incorrect. If the world had effectively locked down for 2 weeks (the amount of time it takes for the virus to incubate) and then treated those who were infected, it would have been gone. The only way for it to propagate is through contact. But nobody had the stomach for it, and now the genie's out of the bottle. But it is true, masks, gloves and staying in our homes could have made it disappear. We just have way too many stubborn MF's who refuse to be told what to do.

USFFan

(06-18-2020 06:31 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I tried to listen to the guy in the beginning because he was supposed to be a leader and a doctor and very knowledgeable. But the more he talks the more I doubt his intentions are good. It's went from "flatten the curve" to "keep everything almost completely shutdown indefinitely".

So I fully understand the other side of this argument. It's pretty transparent. The mayor in Jaws pretty much sums it up. I'm going to downplay/ignore this so we actually make some money over 4th of July. Say it was a barracuda.

What I don't get is, what is everyone assuming Fauci's intentions/angle/motivation, or all of the medical community that agrees with him for that matter? Doctors/dentists/etc are losing business during this too. Why would they exaggerate the scale of the pandemic?

(06-19-2020 08:24 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  We all already know that this whole thing is hanging by the thread. Do the football dance and hope for the best.

(06-19-2020 01:01 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(06-18-2020 06:31 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I tried to listen to the guy in the beginning because he was supposed to be a leader and a doctor and very knowledgeable. But the more he talks the more I doubt his intentions are good. It's went from "flatten the curve" to "keep everything almost completely shutdown indefinitely".

So I fully understand the other side of this argument. It's pretty transparent. The mayor in Jaws pretty much sums it up. I'm going to downplay/ignore this so we actually make some money over 4th of July. Say it was a barracuda.

What I don't get is, what is everyone assuming Fauci's intentions/angle/motivation, or all of the medical community that agrees with him for that matter? Doctors/dentists/etc are losing business during this too. Why would they exaggerate the scale of the pandemic?

I doubt the entire medical community agrees with him on everything. I know there's been faulty data at times which makes you question their/his decision making. And then the fact that he's been in government for decades makes me a little suspicious of what he's all about.

Fauci doesn't know football.

I'm really sick of this guy.

(06-19-2020 01:01 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(06-18-2020 06:31 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  I tried to listen to the guy in the beginning because he was supposed to be a leader and a doctor and very knowledgeable. But the more he talks the more I doubt his intentions are good. It's went from "flatten the curve" to "keep everything almost completely shutdown indefinitely".

So I fully understand the other side of this argument. It's pretty transparent. The mayor in Jaws pretty much sums it up. I'm going to downplay/ignore this so we actually make some money over 4th of July. Say it was a barracuda.

What I don't get is, what is everyone assuming Fauci's intentions/angle/motivation, or all of the medical community that agrees with him for that matter? Doctors/dentists/etc are losing business during this too. Why would they exaggerate the scale of the pandemic?

Lol

Mayor in Jaws is the perfect analogy

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(06-19-2020 11:27 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(06-18-2020 10:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  The big problem, right now, is that the "first wave" of Covid-19 is not dissipating in the U.S. in many U.S. States. The pandemic is out of control in the U.S. right now, because such a large part of the population is not taking appropriate precautions (not wearing face masks/coverings).

In response to the current upsurge of cases, at least 10 mayors of the largest cities in Arizona have just issued orders requiring people to wear masks in indoor public spaces, as has the Governor of California. These orders were considered necessary because voluntary mask wearing has been inadequate to prevent the pandemic from continuing to rage out of control.

The requirement to wear face coverings has brought the massive epidemic in the State of New York under control. Until there is an effective vaccine, it's the only thing that can be done to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

Perhaps there could be a football season with some combination of testing, tracing, sequestering, and mask wearing. But housing athletes in dormitories with two students per room might be catastrophic, unless they wear masks inside their dorms and sleep with them on.

I don't claim to be an expert, but I'd guess New York more benefited more from heard immunity than masks.

Also the thought that we need to wait for a vaccine. That's a huge gamble. To my knowledge, there has never been a vaccine for Covid. Have you ever heard the phrase "there is no cure for the common cold"? Well the common cold is a strand of Covid.

Or maybe I haven't clue of what I'm talking about. Let's see how it plays out.

There has never been a vaccine for a coronavirus. I think it is very likely we will just have to learn to live with it as a threat.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-...r/12146616

(06-19-2020 12:57 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(06-19-2020 12:09 PM)smu89 Wrote:  Great we can see stats on ventilators, testings, positives, deaths, hospitalization, etc by city/county.

As people are trying to understand the best course of action while we wait for a hopeful cure some months or year(s) out, would be nice to have stats shown next to the ones above by city/county, unemployment filings, businesses closed, bankruptcy, unemployment rate, city financials/lost rev, federal spending, untreated medical, etc.

It's definitely a rock/hard place thing, and it (like too many other things) has become too political. However you want to slice it, the number of deaths and the incidence of death is up. The best way to examine this without any inference is to look at these statistics from the state of Michigan, which tracks deaths by month:

https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/pha/osr/Pro...Counts.asp

Here are the total deaths in Michigan between January and May (since June's not done yet) by year:

2016 = 40,441
2017 = 41,707
2018 = 42,480
2019 = 40,935
2020 = 47,725

mean for 2016-2019 = 41,391 (rounded slightly up)

Increase in total death rate in Michigan in 2020 = 1.138x

While I can't find the total number of deaths in the US in 2019, I did find that that number in 2017 was 2,813,503. Using that increase factor we just calculated for Michigan (which, I grant you isn't a guarantee that it would be the same across all states, but it's not an unreasonable assumption) that would mean that we could expect 388,263 (rounded slightly down) more people to die this year (eerily similar to the total number of US deaths in WW2, which is 416,800). Even if you only ascribe roughly 2/3 of that to COVID, that's more than a quarter of a million US deaths to the disease. Just saying "oh well, them's the breaks, we need the economy to remain strong" is easy for you to say if you or a loved one isn't in that quarter million of people. So I don't disagree that those numbers should all be used, but saving a strong economy when it comes at a literal cost of human life is a craven philosophy, in my opinion.

Quote:Unfortunately, this isn’t going to disappear by masks, gloves, toilet paper, or staying in our homes.

Sadly, this is incorrect. If the world had effectively locked down for 2 weeks (the amount of time it takes for the virus to incubate) and then treated those who were infected, it would have been gone. The only way for it to propagate is through contact. But nobody had the stomach for it, and now the genie's out of the bottle. But it is true, masks, gloves and staying in our homes could have made it disappear. We just have way too many stubborn MF's who refuse to be told what to do.

USFFan

Yeah. It could go away IF the whole world coordinated and 100% honored a 2 week lockdown.

No food pick-up or delivery, no medical,
no babies being delivered, two weeks at bernies (for anyones body / death), etc, etc.

Fantasy land.

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(06-18-2020 06:00 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

It's happening, the money for football is huge, larger than any other sports...

(06-18-2020 07:52 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Who appointed Fauci god ?

The guy hasn't been close to right on anything he's said. He just like hearing himself talk and grabbing his 15 minutes of fame.

^^^ THIS ^^^

Did he ever acknowledge the possibility of a treatment or cure? I've never head him say anything positive.

At lest Dr. Deborah Birx acknowledges that they have tasked members of the HIV Task Force to help, Dr. Fauci is all doom and gloom, guess every argument needs one of those.