(03-26-2020 03:38 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  This will be over by mid-April

Look for the end of May to the end of June for that kind of news... California, Nevada and some of the other SANCTUARY states ot west have yet to get going.

... and I do believe that sanctuary states/cities will get hit the hardest simply due to the higher % of the population that can't afford to stay home without a paycheck.

.

Based on the most recent data, there is now increasing evidence that, while the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases has continued to rise steadily, the rate of increase has begun to show a gradual slowing trend over the past week.

The estimates in the graph below are based on the U.S. Covid-19 prevalence reports from the graph titled "Total confirmed COVID-19 cases" at this website:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total...ountry=USA

.
The trend toward an increase in the time required for the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double continued through Sunday (3/30/20) at midnight.

It took approximately 3.74 days for the number of U.S. cases on Wednesday (3/26) midnight to double. The doubling took place on Sunday (3/30) evening:

Wednesday: 69,194 U.S. cases

Sunday (3/30, estimated by midnight): 143,025 U.S. cases

============================================

Here is the estimated trend in doubling times, indicating that the amount of time for the number of U.S. cases to double has increased significantly since 3/30/20:

ESTIMATED U.S. COVID-19 DOUBLING TIMES
FROM BASELINE DATA ON 3/20 - 3/28/20

5.6
5.5.(preliminary, based on only 48 hours of data)........(~5.46 days).*
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5.(preliminary, based on 72 hours of data).....(~4.52 days).*
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7...................................................(~3.74 days).*
3.6
3.5
3.4 ........................................(~3.35 days).*
3.3
3.2..................................(3.2 days).*
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8......................(~2.8 days).*
2.7...........(~2.7 days).*
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2 days.*........* (~2.2 days; no change in doubling rate)
2.0

..........3/20....3/21....3/22....3/23....3/24....3/25....3/26....3/27....3/28
NOTE: The dates 3/20-3/28 are the "baseline" or starting point comparison dates.


This chart shows the approximate (estimated) number of days that it took the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double from each date (including the baseline dates 3/20/20 through 3/28/20).


============================================

NOTE: The estimates vary, depending on whether they were based on 72 or 96 hours of data. The estimates for 3/27 and 3/28/20 are preliminary and subject to revision and should be recomputed when 96 hours of follow-up data are available.

============================================

While these findings are somewhat preliminary, and while further data will be required to confirm this trend, this evidence suggests that the U.S. growth curve trajectory may be slowing gradually, as it has slowed in other nations, such as South Korea, China, and Italy.

However, most recent data points in the graph are preliminary estimates, and it is not yet possible to predict whether the signs of a flattening trend in the growth rate will continue to be observed in the coming days. It is possible that the growth curve could go through another surge upwards, could flatten out more rapidly, could speed up and slow down over the coming weeks, or could remain approximately as it is.

============================================


If confirmed, this will be very good news, because if the doubling rate had not increased, there could have been as many as 3 million U.S. cases of Covid-19 by Sunday, April 12th.

If the average doubling rate was approximately 4 days on March 28th at approximately 9-10 p.m., when there were ~100,000 U.S. cases, and if that 4 day doubling rate were to continue through April 12th, there would be approximately 1.6 million U.S. cases by midnight on Sunday, April 12th.

If there were to have been a 3-day doubling rate throughout that time, there would be approximately 3.2 M cases by midnight on April 12th, and if there were to have been a 5-day doubling rate throughout that time, there would be approximately 800,000 cases on midnight of April 11th.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Importantly, if the trend in the data toward a flatter and flatter growth curve trajectory is confirmed - and if it continues - it may be possible for the doubling rate to increase to 7 days, and for the rate of increase to approach an asymptote (leveling off) within the next 2-3 weeks.

Data from all the nations that have reported Covid-19 prevalence rates suggest that, with systematic precautions (social distancing, minimizing time outside the home, etc.), the overall prevalence rate may also approach an asymptote within the next 2-3 weeks.

If the growth curve trajectory continues to slow, and if our nation follows a similar "flattening trend" in the total number of cases, there might be a total of somewhere between 500,000 and 1 million U.S. cases from mid-April and perhaps into May.

We will soon begin to have many thousands and then tens of thousands of Americans who have recovered from Covid-19. By mid-April, 150,000 Americans may have recovered from the disease, and 95% of the Americans with Covid-19 are likely to recover by May 1st. At that point, or possibly sooner, the total prevalence of Covid-19 in the U.S. may begin to decline considerably, but only if the number of new cases is more than offset by the number of recovered cases.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Example: If there should be 1,000,000 U.S. cases on a given date in late April, and if the doubling time is more than 1 week at that time, and if the Covid-19 recovery rate in the U.S. per week is close to 50% of all Covid-19 cases (or about 500,000 recovered cases) at that time, then at that point, there will be ~ one recovered case for every new case, and the growth curve in the total number of cases could then, potentially, be flattened. There would still be 1,000,000 cases in this example, but the total prevalence might not increase beyond that.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The next phase, beyond flattening the growth curve trajectory, would be for the number of new cases per day to be surpassed by the number of recovered cases per day. At that point, the total U.S. prevalence of Covid-19 would begin to decline. The rate and extent of the decline would depend on the ratio of the number of recovered cases to the number of new cases, and this would be determined by the effectiveness of prevention efforts and what is hoped will be the increased effectiveness of medical treatments as the supply of effective anti-Covid-19 drugs increases and is distributed to a higher and higher % of affected cases.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NOTE:

The estimates in the graph above are based on the daily Covid-19 prevalence reports from a graph titled "Total confirmed COVID-19 cases" at this website:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total...ountry=USA

The last two data points have been revised at least once after initially being published. Thus, there has been some variability in the reports, due to the fact that it has taken a couple of days to upwardly-revise the most recent prevalence numbers.

(03-30-2020 03:33 AM)smu89 Wrote:  Some results are mentioned:

Renowned epidemiologist Dr. Didier Raoult was able to repeat his findings from a previous study. Dr. Raoult administered hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to 80 patients and observed improvement in EVERY CASE except for a very sick 86-year-old with an advanced form of coronavirus infection.

On Saturday Dr. Vladimir Zelenko reported that he has now successfully treated 699 COVID-19 patients in New York for the coronavirus. Dr. Zelenko reported 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate.

Yes, but that is what is known as "anecdotal evidence". Those are not double-blind clinical studies.

Look, I really hope there is a preexisting drug that is effective. And I don't disagree with using a drug in the field that has shown that it might work and that has been proven safe when used as indicated - provided that it does not create shortages for those using the drug for its approved purpose (i.e. Lupus). But we all need to be careful of overly simplistic, pie-in-the-sky answers as a political substitute for the need for a concerted effort AT ALL LEVELS to produce tests, ventilators and protective equipment on a massive scale.

Personally, I listen to Fauci and other infectious disease experts like Scott Gottlieb of the AEI.

(03-30-2020 11:32 AM)Enriquillo Wrote:  

(03-30-2020 03:33 AM)smu89 Wrote:  Some results are mentioned:

Renowned epidemiologist Dr. Didier Raoult was able to repeat his findings from a previous study. Dr. Raoult administered hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to 80 patients and observed improvement in EVERY CASE except for a very sick 86-year-old with an advanced form of coronavirus infection.

On Saturday Dr. Vladimir Zelenko reported that he has now successfully treated 699 COVID-19 patients in New York for the coronavirus. Dr. Zelenko reported 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate.

Yes, but that is what is known as "anecdotal evidence". Those are not double-blind clinical studies.

Personally, I listen to Fauci and other infectious disease experts like Scott Gottlieb of the AEI.

Let's clarify this point:

Dr. Fauci was mistaken, if he has described the two clinical trials by Dr. Raoult and the verification study by Dr. Zelenko as being "anecdotal.".

It is not even clear that he has read those reports or scrutinized their findings in detail. When he used the term "anecdotal," he may not have been aware that these were clinical trials, or he may have been referring only to Dr. Raoult's initial study, which had a small sample size.

Dr. Fauci first described the early data as "anecdotal" over a week ago, when the findings of these studies had not been disseminated or were hard to find.

Moreover, whatever the opinions of Dr. Fauci and Gottlieb are, they nothing more than that: Opinions of two experts in the field.

It is customary, in all science, including medical research, for there to be varying interpretations of data. Every scientists is trained to be skeptical of the way other scientists interpret any set of data, no matter what title or government position they may hold.

In fact, that's what science itself is - - the systematic examination of data from researchers who postulate various hypotheses that are subjected to examination. A key to the progress of medical research and all science is to subject the results of studies to replication (i.e., verification in further studies).

.

To be more accurate, Fauci should simply have stated that the findings of this or any other clinical trial may or may not be replicated. They may or may not stand the test of the time. But they are not "anecdotal."

An anecdotal finding in medical science typically refers to a single case report, or a number of case reports. A controlled clinical trial is not a case report, but a study approved by an institutional review board in which the patients are randomly selected into treatment and comparison groups, with their outcomes undergoing carefully statistical comparison.

Not only has Dr. Raoult reported the findings of one study, but it appears that he has also reported the findings of a replication study that appear to have broadly verified the findings of the initial clinical trial.

Furthermore, Dr. Zelenko has independently verified the findings of Dr. Raoult in a major replication study with a sample of 699 patients.

Certainly, it will be of interest to see whether future clinical trials will yield additional findings fully or partially replicating these three sets of findings.

However, this does not mean that either the findings of Dr. Raoult's first clinical trial, nor those of his replication study, nor those of Dr. Zelenko's huge replication study (all of which were clinical trials) can be accurately described in any way as being merely "anecdotal."

I'm re-posting this graph, which I put a couple of hours into preparing earlier today, to make sure that people don't miss the chance to look over the findings, which appear to suggest encouraging progress this week toward slowing the growth trajectory of Covid-19 in the U.S.

============================================

Here is the estimated trend in doubling times, indicating that the amount of time for the number of U.S. cases to double has increased significantly since 3/30/20:

ESTIMATED U.S. COVID-19 DOUBLING TIMES
FROM BASELINE DATA ON 3/20 - 3/28/20

5.6
5.5.(preliminary, based on only 48 hours of data)........(~5.46 days).*
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5.(preliminary, based on 72 hours of data).....(~4.52 days).*
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7...................................................(~3.74 days).*
3.6
3.5
3.4 ........................................(~3.35 days).*
3.3
3.2..................................(3.2 days).*
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8......................(~2.8 days).*
2.7...........(~2.7 days).*
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2 days.*........* (~2.2 days; no change in doubling rate)
2.0

..........3/20....3/21....3/22....3/23....3/24....3/25....3/26....3/27....3/28
NOTE: The dates 3/20-3/28 are the "baseline" or starting point comparison dates.


This chart shows the approximate (estimated) number of days that it took the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double from each date (including the baseline dates 3/20/20 through 3/28/20).


============================================

Data obtained from:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total...ountry=USA

============================================

More information pertaining to this graph and the broader context and implications are discussed in a previous post above.

.

============================================


For those that are more interested in viewing the data on both the growth in the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases and the trend toward a flattening of the U.S. growth curve, there are two excellent graphs showing those trends at this website:


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/...-hong-kong

(03-30-2020 11:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  However, this does not mean that either the findings of Dr. Raoult's first clinical trial, nor those of his replication study, nor those of Dr. Zelenko's huge replication study (all of which were clinical trials) can be accurately described in any way as being merely "anecdotal."[/size]

Jed,

Please see this article and let me know if you share my concern about spreading false hope of a quick miracle cure when the country needs to be fully activated towards the fabrication of ventilators, tests and personal protective equipment. The article notes the lack of true randomized studies. Stat News: What We Don't Know

(03-30-2020 01:07 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  

(03-30-2020 11:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  However, this does not mean that either the findings of Dr. Raoult's first clinical trial, nor those of his replication study, nor those of Dr. Zelenko's huge replication study (all of which were clinical trials) can be accurately described in any way as being merely "anecdotal."[/size]

Jed,

Please see this article and let me know if you share my concern about spreading false hope of a quick miracle cure when the country needs to be fully activated towards the fabrication of ventilators, tests and personal protective equipment. The article notes the lack of true randomized studies. Stat News: What We Don't Know

Enriquillo,

I don't doubt that your intentions are the very best, but I hope you will try to consider the possibility that there are other concerns that are equally or more important at this time.

I do not share your concern about spreading false hope of a quick miracle cure when "the country needs to be..."

No one has promised a miracle cure. Various labs have been conducting research, and hundreds of patients with Covid-19 in the U.S. and elsewhere are being treated on a compassionate care basis, in an effort to keep them from dying.

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine have been adopted by a number of nations that have been persuaded by the evidence from clinical trials that some have described as "anecdotal."

============================================

News flash: This just in:

FDA OK's Addition To Stockpile Of Malaria Drugs For COVID-19

March 30, 20204:39 PM ET

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823987540/fda-oks-addition-to-stockpile-of-malaria-drugs-for-covid-19

============================================

If you are so concerned about raising hopes for a "miracle cure" that you would prefer that we don't allow drugs that aren't yet FDA-approved to be used an emergency to try to save hundreds of Americans lives, well, your concerns and the views of those who share your concerns are not going to prevent these drugs from being administered. The decision has already been made, and many countries in the world are already administering these drugs, despite the objections about "anecdotal" findings.

Before you get too upset about the fact that I have some concerns that are entirely different from yours - let me please make it clear what I consider a balanced perspective is as to how the crisis should be dealt with, one of the best things to do is watch NY Governor Cuomo's detailed press conferences on the subject.

If you've followed his press conferences, or if you check them out, I think you'll realize that I am not saying we shouldn't hesitate to act, or that we shouldn't be concerned. What I am saying is that we also need to do what we can to prepare to lay the groundwork for the economy that will come after the crisis is brought under control, and that part of this effort involves treating patients on a "compassionate care" basis with drug treatments that may work.

This isn't a simple matter of one of us being "right" and the other being "wrong" about these things. We each have legitimate concerns.

BTW, if you somehow think that I'm overly cheerful and too unconcerned about the risks of ignoring the crisis, how do you explain the fact that I've been putting a lot of hours into tracking the developments and analyzing data and reporting the findings?

I am probably at least as concerned as you are, but I know that we also have to keep things in perspective and remember that people are dying every day of other diseases, that all kinds of illnesses are not being adequately treated due to the stay at home orders. A lot of people with severe mental health problems can't visit their therapists. A lot of families that are cooped up together are suffering from abusive interactions. Many people already on the brink of homelessness may not be able to avoid it now.

Does that mean we should stop doing our utmost to prevent the Covid-19 pandemic from afflicting 330 more Americans? Of course not, but what it does mean is that perhaps we should be exploring ways to help Americans to function in the world when the worst of the crisis has passed. For example:

1) Every American should have a supply of effective face masks and latex-type gloves. We should get used to wearing them when we do have to leave our homes, and we should accept the fact that, when people do start going back to work, they should wear masks on public transportation, at the office, and everywhere they go, probably through most of the Summer.

2) Unless and until evidence surfaces that they have no value as treatments for Covid-19, enough of the chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine should be manufactured to provide a sufficient supply to treat every American man, woman, and child who is able to take them without medical complications (excepting pregnant women and those with various other conditions). These are not "miracle cures," but when we have enough of them to treat everyone, we will be able to restrict the number of needless deaths that are caused by not having sufficient supplies on hand.

(I just finished writing this - basically hoping we would stockpile a huge supply of these drugs - about 5 minutes before this story broke:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...r-covid-19

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The rest of the paragraphs that I have been drafting in response to your post is just an elaboration on these points, so I'll print it in small text for those not interested:


The country is already pretty darn "activated," freaked out and upset about the health crisis. Yes, there are some who continue to deny, dawdle, and delay, but for the rest of us to try to browbeat and shame them or harp on the point ad nauseum is probably going to backfire.

If you don't think that the maximum efforts are already being made to get the ventilators, masks, and protective equipment manufactured, perhaps you haven't been paying close enough attention. I'm as critical as anyone else is about how slow and inefficient the White House response was for the first few weeks, but at this point, they're talking about literally forcing GM to manufacture ventilators and shutting down whole regions, if not the entire country for another month.

My concerns are the exact opposite of yours. I am criticizing Dr. Fauci's view that the clinical trials that have been done are "anecdotal." His words are being used by some to limit the availability of drugs like chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine that may have the potential to save lives.

The data from those studies are not "anecdotal." Fauci is simply wrong about that. Every study has its limitations, but being "anecdotal" is not one of the limitations of the studies mentioned.

My argument is that there are a lot of other threats to life and well-being that are not being dealt with during this crisis. At some point,

Are you a scientist? If you are, how familiar are you with the specific studies that have been conducted, including the clinical trials with these drugs that have been conducted in China (one Chinese clinical trial had 130 patients).

Are you a medical researcher? If you are, how do you respond to the point that failing to treat patients, even with drugs that are prescribed on a "compassionate care" or "off label" basis may cause far more adverse events than treating patients with drugs that are thought to have an effect?

Are you opposed to the current practice of treating some American patients who would otherwise die from Covid-19 with the drug currently in Phase 3 clinical trials known as remdesivir on a compassionate care basis (essentially a waiver allowing it to be dispensed although not yet FDA-approved)?

Are you opposed to the idea of dispensing drugs not yet FDA-approved in other emergency pandemic situations? If so, do you now object to the fact that FDA-approved drugs were administered to terminally-ill patients in the early days of the HIV/AIDS crisis in the 1980s?

You seem to be hinting that anyone who's trying to focus on the few bits of good news need to shut up and freak about the crisis even more than we already have. If that's your view, in a nutshell, I simply disagree.

My argument is that we need to remain calm and focus on what we can do, rather than worrying to such an extent that we all become over-"activated" and paralyzed as a result, or that people start to become suicidal or depressed, or start abusing their kids, their wives, their elders, etc.

This is probably becoming a mental health crisis as much as it is a physical health crisis, and I am very concerned about the mental and emotional issues that have gotten very little attention during this crisis, as well as the many people with other physical illnesses who can't get the prescriptions and treatments they need because all the doctor's offices are shut down for weeks.

If you read what I have written carefully, I have made it clear that all of the computations that I have done have been with the best available data. I've printed the links to the sources so others can check my work.

I'm also trying to point out that our society can pay an excessive price and take excessive risk for other adverse outcomes if we focus all of our attention on one illness, to the exclusion of all else.

For example, if all global drug production for all illnesses in the world were to be stopped, due to "stay at home" orders everywhere in the world, we would run out of drugs, and there could be millions of deaths caused not by Covid-19, but by the failure to manufacture drugs to prevent all the other diseases.

(03-30-2020 09:13 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  

(03-26-2020 03:38 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  This will be over by mid-April

Look for the end of May to the end of June for that kind of news... California, Nevada and some of the other SANCTUARY states ot west have yet to get going.

... and I do believe that sanctuary states/cities will get hit the hardest simply due to the higher % of the population that can't afford to stay home without a paycheck.

Ok, end-of-April, max. Folks stir-crazy already.

(03-30-2020 11:32 AM)Enriquillo Wrote:  

(03-30-2020 03:33 AM)smu89 Wrote:  Some results are mentioned:

Renowned epidemiologist Dr. Didier Raoult was able to repeat his findings from a previous study. Dr. Raoult administered hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to 80 patients and observed improvement in EVERY CASE except for a very sick 86-year-old with an advanced form of coronavirus infection.

On Saturday Dr. Vladimir Zelenko reported that he has now successfully treated 699 COVID-19 patients in New York for the coronavirus. Dr. Zelenko reported 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate.

Yes, but that is what is known as "anecdotal evidence". Those are not double-blind clinical studies.

Look, I really hope there is a preexisting drug that is effective. And I don't disagree with using a drug in the field that has shown that it might work and that has been proven safe when used as indicated - provided that it does not create shortages for those using the drug for its approved purpose (i.e. Lupus). But we all need to be careful of overly simplistic, pie-in-the-sky answers as a political substitute for the need for a concerted effort AT ALL LEVELS to produce tests, ventilators and protective equipment on a massive scale.

Personally, I listen to Fauci and other infectious disease experts like Scott Gottlieb of the AEI.

Just sharing what is out th ere. No "political substitute" or mention of who we should listen to...but thanks for the added helpful commentary


Seems all options / needs are being pursued ASAP.

Great American companies and Americans coming together to win the war.

Stay safe and lets all win and help others in countries that need help.




Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

(03-30-2020 05:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(03-30-2020 01:07 PM)Enriquillo Wrote:  

(03-30-2020 11:58 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  However, this does not mean that either the findings of Dr. Raoult's first clinical trial, nor those of his replication study, nor those of Dr. Zelenko's huge replication study (all of which were clinical trials) can be accurately described in any way as being merely "anecdotal."[/size]

Jed,

Please see this article and let me know if you share my concern about spreading false hope of a quick miracle cure when the country needs to be fully activated towards the fabrication of ventilators, tests and personal protective equipment. The article notes the lack of true randomized studies. Stat News: What We Don't Know

Enriquillo,

I don't doubt that your intentions are the very best, but I hope you will try to consider the possibility that there are other concerns that are equally or more important at this time..............................

[/size].

Jed,

A lot to unpack there, so I didn't even quote it.

To be clear, I am not against the use of hydroxychloroquine and support the idea that it be quickly manufactured and stockpiled. That's what you do in a war - you build things you think you might need even if they don't turn out as planned. But its efficacy has not been proven (parse the word "proven" if you must), so I don't like the way it is held up by politicians, and accepted by many, as THE solution.

And speaking of war, during the Battle of Britain Churchill did not brag about some new weapon that would win the war for the British. He laid it out to his people straight. He didn't deflect blame to anyone. They loved and respected him for it. My how times have changed.

You can say that all aspects of production (ventilators, tests, PPE) are now in full capacity. Maybe. Maybe not. But it took too long! The USA is now the hottest infection spot in the industrialized world, and is far from reaching its peak. And the only way we get back to work in the near-term, short of an unexpected cure or treatment, is an adequate supply of tests and PPE. I truly hope we get there soon.

I might be headed to NY. Wish me luck.
Strictly from a Spiritual perspective. You're damn right I told Satan he can kiss some American Ass and he's going to like it!
If he thinks he knows what Hell is then he's never faced an American Christian. Snipers aren't to play games with. Come get you some.

I'll take my Glock. It has a solid relationship with my Faith. In case you forget the natural order of things.

The drugs in question are not a Miracle cure, but no doubt shows real promise. If as expected it improves outcomes, maybe you can drop death rates from 1.5 to 2% down to the .5 to .75% range. That would be a huge change. A bug 5x as bad as the common flu is a different animal than one 10 to 15 times worse. If and it is a big If, we can make it to summer, break its back for a few months, We buy the time needed to get ready for next fall/winter. By then masks, ventilators, shields, will not be the problem it is today. All this political garbage, is just that garbage. I don't like tons of what Trump has done, But will give him a solid B on his handling of this. And I like even less of what the Dem leadership has done, But I will give them a B- as well. They fight they disagree, both seek advantage, but in the end are mostly doing what they feel needs to be done.

(03-30-2020 11:32 AM)Enriquillo Wrote:  

(03-30-2020 03:33 AM)smu89 Wrote:  Some results are mentioned:

Renowned epidemiologist Dr. Didier Raoult was able to repeat his findings from a previous study. Dr. Raoult administered hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to 80 patients and observed improvement in EVERY CASE except for a very sick 86-year-old with an advanced form of coronavirus infection.

On Saturday Dr. Vladimir Zelenko reported that he has now successfully treated 699 COVID-19 patients in New York for the coronavirus. Dr. Zelenko reported 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate.

Yes, but that is what is known as "anecdotal evidence". Those are not double-blind clinical studies.

Look, I really hope there is a preexisting drug that is effective. And I don't disagree with using a drug in the field that has shown that it might work and that has been proven safe when used as indicated - provided that it does not create shortages for those using the drug for its approved purpose (i.e. Lupus). But we all need to be careful of overly simplistic, pie-in-the-sky answers as a political substitute for the need for a concerted effort AT ALL LEVELS to produce tests, ventilators and protective equipment on a massive scale.

Personally, I listen to Fauci and other infectious disease experts like Scott Gottlieb of the AEI.

Being a CRO labs guy, small silver lining in this whole thing is hearing things like "double-blind" and "ELISA" being regularly thrown around on mainstream news and, who'da thunk it, sports message boards.

Totally geeking out right now.

This seems like the appropriate place to drop this potential harbinger of things to come...

USFFan

(03-30-2020 03:33 AM)smu89 Wrote:  Some results are mentioned:

Renowned epidemiologist Dr. Didier Raoult 

Maybe "infamous" would be a better word to describe him...

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/ar...-dr-raoult

Includes a fair amount of evidence that he's not only a pretty odious person (who's ALREADY written a book to profit from this outbreak), but that his lab has a history of what can charitably be described as sloppy or dubious practices that resulted in him being banned from publishing his work in any American Society of Microbiology journals for a time.

Not saying he's wrong about this (though I don't subscribe to the idea of the FDA moving away from their clinical trial regulations, mostly because it sets an awful precedent that will be used in the future for less noble reasons), but saying that perhaps we should at least not buy everything that comes out of his mouth...

USFFan

(03-31-2020 12:33 AM)I_LUV_MEMPHISTIGERS Wrote:  I might be headed to NY. Wish me luck.
Strictly from a Spiritual perspective. You're damn right I told Satan he can kiss some American Ass and he's going to like it!
If he thinks he knows what Hell is then he's never faced an American Christian. Snipers aren't to play games with. Come get you some.

I'll take my Glock. It has a solid relationship with my Faith. In case you forget the natural order of things.

Avoid it if you can, people still bump into you at the supermarket and in general disregard the 6' separation suggestions, regardless of what any of the New Yorky politicians say.

I came across this article today about the work of Dr. Zelenko, which was described as a successful Covid-19 clinical trial in an earlier post.

What the article makes clear is that Zelenko's work, while highly encouraging and of great interest, was not a clinical trial, per se, but rather an extensive summary of case report data with systematic data collection.

Nevertheless, his reports indicating that his 3-drug combination treatment was associated with a restoration of normal breathing "within 3-4 hours," with only 4 patients being hospitalizations and no deaths suggest that this drug combination may have considerable potential.


https://techstartups.com/2020/03/31/dr-v...ts-100-su/

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko provides important update on three drug regimen of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Azithromycin (Z-Pak) he used to effectively treat 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success [UPDATE 3]



Last week, we updated you about the good news that came out of New York City after Dr. Vladimir Zelenko reported that he treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak. As mainstream media continues to downplay the positive effect of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak in the treatment of coronavirus patients, we have been doing our best to get the words out there and hopefully save many lives.

In a new video post, Dr. Vladimir Zelenko provides important update regarding the treatment regimen. He’s also sounded warning about shortage of the Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak. He’s asking people to donate drugs (not money) to give to patients in New York. To date, Dr. Zelenko has treated 350 COVID-19 patients using, Hydroxychloroquine 200mg 2x daily, Azithromycin 500mg 1x daily, Zinc Sulfate 220mg 1x daily.

Dr. Zelenko said there is 100% recovery rate with normal breathing restored within 3-4 hours and no intubation. Dr. Zelenko is one of the doctors in front line of New York City treating COVID-19 patients with anti-malaria drugs.

Here is the outcome data since 3/18/20 – 3/26/20

1. 669 patients seen in my Monroe, NY practice with either test proven or clinically diagnosed corona infection
2. zero deaths
3. zeo intubations
4. 4 hospitalizations for pneumonia – patients are on iv antibiotics and improving
5. Dr Zelenko statistics – 699 cases / 0 deaths = 0% death rate

Patients treated with three drug regimen

1- hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2- azithromycin 500mg once a day for five days
3- zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for five days

Here’s Dr. Zelenko’s advice: TREAT AS EARLY AND AS AGGRESSIVELY AS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTPATIENT SETTING

============================================

Here is the estimated trend in doubling times, indicating that the amount of time for the number of U.S. cases to double has increased significantly since 3/30/20:

ESTIMATED U.S. COVID-19 DOUBLING TIMES
FROM BASELINE DATA ON 3/20 - 3/28/20

7.0 days
6.9
6.8
6.7.(preliminary: based on 48 hours of data)...............(~6.68 days).*
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0 days
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5.(based on 72 hours of data)......................(~5.48 days).*
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0 days
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5.(based on 96 hours of data)..............(~4.53 days).*
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0 days
3.9
3.8
3.7............................................(~3.74 days).*
3.6
3.5
3.4 ..................................(~3.35 days).*
3.3
3.2.............................(3.2 days).*
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8.................(~2.8 days).*
2.7.......(~2.7 days).*
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2 days*.......* (~2.2 days; no change in doubling rate)
2.0

........3/20...3/21...3/22...3/23...3/24...3/25...3/26...3/27...3/28...3/29
NOTE: The dates 3/20-3/28 are the "baseline" or starting point comparison dates.


This chart shows the approximate (estimated) number of days that it took the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double from each date (including the baseline dates 3/20/20 through 3/29/20).


============================================

These findings suggest that the time required for the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases to double (i.e., the "doubling time") has continued to increase.

The estimate based on the number of U.S. cases at midnight Sunday, March 31st, would be approximately 498,660 by midnight on Sunday, April 12th.

That is a major improvement over the estimates over the past several days, based on the faster doubling rates that had been observed earlier. At those earlier doubling times, the estimates based on the data from preceding days suggested that there could be ~800,000 to ~1.6 million or more U.S. cases by midnight on April 12th.

The number of new cases, which had soared from ~10,000 to 20,000+ over a 5 day period has shown signs of stabilizing - at least temporarily - in the 20,000 range over the past three days. This finding is consistent with the recently observed increase in the estimated Covid-19 doubling time in the U.S.

While the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases continues to grow, the most recent data suggest that the rate of growth (i.e., the doubling rate) appears to be showing an increasing trend toward flattening, as has been seen in every other nation in the world to date. There is a figure showing this tendency toward a flattening trend, across the nations of the world:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/...-hong-kong

The slope of the curve in the graph on the vox.com website is steeper than the graph prepared for the AAC message board, because it is a lagging indicator. The AAC message board graph is more of a leading indicator that focuses not on the number of cases, but on the rate of change in the U.S. Covid-19 doubling rate.


The next challenge will be to increase the doubling time still further (e.g., from one week to two weeks). At the present rate of improvement in doubling times, this could occur as early as April 7th, and certainly by April 12th.

At that point, the increasing number of "recovered Covid-19 cases" will begin to cut the rate of growth in # of U.S. cases quite subtantially.

Example:

If it takes two weeks for an estimated ~500,000 U.S. cases on April 12th to double, that would result in an additional ~500 million U.S. cases by midnight on April 24th.

However, because over 90% of the U.S. cases are expected to recover within two weeks, ~450,000 of the predicted U.S. cases would be expected to recover by midnight on April 24th. If 95% of the U.S. cases recover within two weeks, ~475,000 would be expected to recover

What that would mean is that the total number of U.S. Covid-19 cases on April 24th (an estimated new ~500,000 U.S. cases since April 12th, plus ~50,000 U.S. cases that haven't yet fully recovered) would only be approximately ~525,000 or ~550,000 - - not ~1 million.

If these estimates turn out to be correct, and if the Covid-19 doubling time continues from an estimated one week to two weeks, they suggest the possibility that the total number of U.S. cases might flatten out at ~525,000 to 550,000 cases by midnight on April 24th.

The actual numbers might be somewhat higher or lower, depending on how long it takes for us to bring the raw doubling rate (i.e., the doubling rate, not including recovered cases) down to two weeks.

The next step forward would be to begin to cut the total number of U.S. cases. This would require increasing the raw Covid-19 doubling time (e.g., from 2 to 3 weeks). If it were to take 3 weeks for another 525,000 Americans to develop Covid-19 (by mid-May), that would be long enough for all of the 525,000 Americans with the disease on April 24th to have recovered, and would also be long enough for 1/3 of the Americans with the disease on May 1st to recover.

Thus, in this example, the estimated number of U.S. cases by mid-May would be cut from ~550,000 to ~367,000. Three weeks after that, all of those cases would have recovered, and the total # of U.S. cases in early June would be cut from ~367,000 to ~246,000.

As optimistic as these projections may seem, the U.S. pandemic could be brought under control more quickly, still, if/when it takes less than 2 weeks for most Americans to recover from Covid-19. Based on preliminary findings in clinical settings, the time required for most Americans to recover from Covid-19 may soon begin to diminish as more and more doses of drugs such as hydroxychloroquine are shipped to the U.S. and made available to patients.

"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) today accepted 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate donated by Sandoz, the Novartis generics and biosimilars division, and one million doses of chloroquine phosphate donated by Bayer Pharmaceuticals, for possible use in treating patients hospitalized with COVID-19 or for use in clinical trials. These and other companies may donate additional doses, and companies have ramped up production to provide additional supplies of the medication to the commercial market."

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/2...ients.html

============================================

Data obtained from:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total...ountry=USA

Additional data obtained from:

https://www.thecut.com/2020/03/which-sta...-risk.html

============================================

Governor Cuomo's news conferences on the Covid-19 epidemic have been particularly informative.

You can find today's press conference here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIhRM9pnH40

---------------------

The Governor announced that the current projections are that the "apex" of the epidemic (the date of the maximum number of Covid-19 cases) in the State of NY may occur within the next 2-3 weeks.

These numbers are broadly consistent with the estimates presented in the graph presented in the prior post, above, which suggest that, based on the most recent data, the apex in the U.S. as a whole might occur a few days after April 24th.

However, it should be noted that it is possible that the efforts that have been slowing the rate of increase in the number of cases more and more with each passing day may have a greater and greater effect in the coming days.

It should also be noted that, with over 30,000,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine having been shipped to the U.S. government this week, and with millions more doses being produced for shipment to pharmacies throughout the U.S., more and more Americans are going to be able to get access to treatment, and at an earlier stage in the illness.

The chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine drugs are now being administered more and more routinely in the nation's hospitals, as a life-saving measure. It's not yet known what the overall impact will be, but there is some evidence suggesting that some patients with the disease may recover more quickly after receiving the medications.

Reducing the number of new Covid-19 cases and improving the speed of recovery in more and more U.S. cases could potentially make the "apex" come sooner and with a maximum number below what it would be if the apex comes on April 24th.

Another potential:

https://www.fox4news.com/news/fort-worth...ors-plasma

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