RE: CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
Thursday morning 10 a.m EST update:
There are now 68,000+ cases in the U.S. It appears that the U.S. may soon have more covid-19 cases than any other nation, due to the fact that we haven't been able to restrict the rate of transmission as much as the other nations have.
It has turned into a true national emergency - - not just a "state of emergency," but a major cause of death. We haven't seen anything like this since perhaps the polio epidemic of the 1950s.
However, while this is beyond most people's imagination and truly catastrophic to the nation in many ways, at least we can take some comfort from the fact that the number of cases appears unlikely to double from 46,000 ~midnight Monday to 92,000 by midnight tonight.
Why is that important?
Because the only way the American pandemic can be brought under control is by cutting the rate at which the number of cases double.
Mid-to-late last week, it was doubling every two days. Then the doubling time increased to roughly 2 1/2 days (from Friday midnight (19,200+ cases to Monday pm (44,000" cases).
Late Saturday evening, there were about 26,000 cases. This doubled in just under 3 days to ~54,000 cases by Tuesday ~ midnight.
That, in itself, was tremendously important news.
Now, we're looking at the probability that (unless 20,000 more Americans develop covid-19 by midnight Thursday, the doubling rate will drop below 3 days for the first time during the epidemic.
Why is it important for the doubling rate to drop to once every three days?
Because almost all of the nations with the most covid-19 cases have observed a significant continuing drop in the doubling rate once the doubling rate dropped to once every three days.
This is what they call "flattening the curve." This is how the curve is flattened - by cutting the doubling rate.
But it is going to take some time to get where we need to go. Our next goal is to cut the doubling rate to once every four days. The only way to do this is to continue the social distancing and restrictions for a while longer, until some of the treatment breakthroughs and possible immunization methods (e.g., "monoclonal antibodies") that we're hoping for begin to come on line.
Now - we have to face some tough news. The number of cases increased by about 14,000 over the period between 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. EDT. At that pace, the net number of cases from 10 pm Wed. to midnight Thursday is likely to be somewhere between 28,000 and 32,000 cases over that 24 hour period (10pm to 10a.m.), which will set a new record, and cause cause the total # of U.S. cases to increase to somewhere between 82,000 and 88,000 cases between 10 pm. and midnight tonight (Thursday).
The only solace we can take from this is that the social distancing, restrictions, and other preventive efforts has helped to prevent the number of cases from doubling from late Monday's total of 44,000 U.S. cases. The rate of transmission has not sped up - - it has slowed down slightly - - only the number of cases has sped up - - not the rate of transmission, and so progress is being made in that respect.
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A few other notes to be aware of:
1. The U.S. will probably have the most covid-19 cases of any nation in the world by tomorrow or Saturday. As happy as we can justifiably be that the growth curve has begun to slow, our nation hasn't yet done nearly enough. We lag almost every other major nation in the number of persons tested for the virus. Hopefully, this will change soon. We're also going to have to mount an emergency effort to treat all the affected patients. It's not an exaggeration to say that we haven't had a national emergency like this since World War II, or the Great Depression, or the Polio Epidemic, as noted above.
2. Can we be sure that the doubling rate will continue to drop in the days ahead?
Unfortunately, not. The best news came Wednesday midnight (last night), with reports of 54,000 to 55,000 total U.S. cases.
At that pace, it appeared possible for it to require more than 3 days for the number of Sunday cases on Sunday to double from ~35,000 to ~70,000 cases.
Right now, due to the shocking news of 13,000 new cases overnight, all we have managed at this point today is to keep the doubling rate from exceeding a doubling every 2.5 days.
What's so shocking about the 13,000 cases in a 12 hour period? First, most of the cases have typically been reported between noon and midnight. Second, the average number of new U.S. cases per day was averaging about 9,000 cases over the past few days. So the 13,000 new cases was completely unexpected, and makes the picture appear a lot more challenging than it did at this time yesterday.
Q. What could account for this incredible overnight surge?
A. Two major factors are involved:
One is that a lot more cases are being detected now, to to increased testing. In other words, all the numbers that have been reported up until now were significantly underestimating the actual number of cases, and we're just starting to discover how many more cases there actually are.
The other is that, in a lot of parts of the country, restrictive methods are not being implemented. A lot of States have resisted quarantines and restrictions on movement and commerce, and large numbers of Americans have failed to do social distancing or to follow other crucial precautions
Q: Where do things seem to be heading with this new information?
A: First, it's not as clear as it seemed last night that the doubling rate will remain at one doubling every three days, unless this surge in cases is a one of a kind event.
The Monday midnight to Thursday midnight data show that the number of cases on Monday (which may have been 45,000 or 46,000 cases based on newer information) may come much closer than expected to doubling by Thursday midnight.
If the number of cases is ballooning out of all proportion today, it's possible that we could have 90,000 cases by midnight Thursday, and in that case, then yes, the 45,000 or 46,000 Monday cases will have doubled by midnight Thursday.
Q: What would the next mile-markers be?
A: We would be looking at the Tuesday midnight - Friday (3/27) midnight window. There were around 55,000 cases on Tuesday. There would need to be 110,000 cases by midnight tomorrow (Friday) in order for the total number of cases to double by then. If the number falls below 110,000 cases by Friday midnight, then we will have seen a bit more progress in slowing the doubling rate.
If the number of cases detected is actually rising at the pace of 25,000 - 30,000 new cases from midnight to midnight today, then it would become our expectation that there will be at least 110,000 total cases on midnight tomorrow (Friday), indeed, possibly 120,000 cases or more by then.
There were 13,000 new U.S. cases during the quietest 12 hour period. If that holds up for the next 36 hours, there would be about 40,000 new cases, plus the close to 70,000 current cases. That would be 110,000 cases right there.
Q: So we're in a mostly bad news situation due to the unexpectedly massive overnight surge in cases, which has suddenly kicked the number of new U.S. cases up from ~9,000 per day for the past few days to ~13,000 in half a day today (i.e., 26,000+ from midnight last night to midnight tonight)?
A: Correct. That's what it looks like right now, unless there has been a huge number of false positive tests for the covid-19 virus, which seems very unlikely.
Q: But it is still possible that the doubling rate might still be able to gradually slow down, despite this information?
A: We would be very fortunate at this point if the number of Tuesday cases takes a full 72 hours to double by Friday midnight (from 55,000 to 110,000).
However, if the number of U.S. cases is not too much greater than 120,000 by midnight tomorrow (Fri.), we may still be able to slow the doubling rate down with intensive precautions and restrictions over the next few days and the next week.
What the nation's people and leaders are doing right now will determine whether this pandemic skyrockets and goes completely out of control, or whether we're able to put a lid on it.
We won't be able to put the lid on as easily next week, if the doubling rate shoots back up to once every two days, or worse.
But we won't give up, regardless. And as frightening as all this is, the virus is not as lethal as the bubonic plague or the black death. The worst case scenario would be that (with a current mortality rate apparently in the 2% range. more than a million Americans might be at risk for mortality from this disease, and that's what we've got to fight against, because when the number is potentially that large, it will end up having tragic consequences for most of us - our friends, co-workers, family members, neighbors, etc.
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Any other useful information - - anything to lift our spirits?
Yes. Of two kinds.
I. The curves for most of the world's nation have begun to flatten out (doubling rate going from 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 days, etc.), and in some nations, have flattened out almost completely.
This suggests that there are limiting factors at work. These are likely to include increasing efforts of every kind, and highly restrictive temporary public policies, such as quarantining and sheltering in place as the virus becomes more and more threatening.
In addition, the persons most likely to be infected are the ones who are infected. The virus is limited to infecting persons who are out in public, who spend a lot of time in close proximity to others without wearing any kind of protective gear (face mask, etc.), and who aren't taking any precautions at all. A lot of those people are going to be put out of circulation by the disease, and the rest will be less likely to contract the virus.
Another factor is that some nations have been found effective ways of treating the covid-19 virus. China, in particular, has been very open about its policy of providing drugs that have been found to be effective in relieving covid-19 symptoms and helping people to recover before becoming critically ill. The U.S. was a little late in the game, due to the restrictive policies of the F.D.A., but the F.D.A. has started to loosen up some of its rigid requirements for drug testing due to the medical emergency (they did the same for the initial HIV/AIDS emergency).
Last, but not least (actually the most important factor) is that, of the 70,000 Americans who now have covid-19, about 12,000 have had it for a week, and many of those are either starting to recover or will soon be recovering.
One week from now, that number will likely rise to 40,000 Americans who will be at least at the mid-point of their illness or starting to recover. Within two weeks, that number will likely rise to all at least 60,000 Americans who currently have covid-19.
That is actually the biggest factor that causes the longer-term flattening of the covid-19 growth curve. Well over 90% of cases recover within 2-3 weeks.
So, if we can keep the doubling rate down to once every three (rather than two) days over the week or ten days, the thousands of people who recover from covid-19 will begin to subtract sizable numbers from the total number of cases with each passing day.
It becomes a numbers game. If we have 110,000 or 120,000 cases Friday midnight, then we might be lucky to have "only" 220,000 to 240,000 current + new cases by midnight on Monday, and to have "only" ~ half a million cases a week from today (next Thursday, midnight). That's what the numbers will be if we succeed at keeping the doubling rate to "only" once every three days.
The next step at that pace would be 1 million infected Americans by a week from this coming Monday (at midnight). Only then will the expected 20,000 or 30,000 recovered cases begin to put a dent in the total number of cases.
But if we could improve the doubling rate to once every four days, as it appeared we could do only 14 or 15 hours ago, then we wouldn't get to a quarter million cases until this coming Tuesday, and wouldn't get to half million until a week from tomorrow, and once it gets to doubling only once every four days, it becomes possible to increase the doubling time to once every five days. If so, we might be able to keep the American pandemic from infecting a million Americans within the next 10 days.
It's a numbers game and it's also a time game. We need to increase the doubling time, and we need to battle against the clock for masks and protective gear and enough medicines and ventilators to treat everyone who gets the illness. We need everybody to pitch in.
But there is hope. This can be done.
Frankly, it's probably too late to stop the disease from infecting a million Americans. The way it's been spreading in this day alone, it may be too late to stop it from infecting 10 million Americans this year, or even over the Summer. Some way that every American will probably get either covid-19 or a mutated covid-20 next Fall or Winter, or a covid-21 the following year.
But with every passing week and month, the supplies of the drugs that can treat the disease effectively will become more and more widely available, and more and more people will be able to start taking them when only mildly ill. There are a number of manufacturers cranking out the most common drugs now (chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine). Bayer Pharmaceuticals just shipped at least a million of the pills to the U.S. and more are on the way. It seems likely that anyone who needs those drugs will be able to get them by June or July, if not sooner.
Other drugs are also showing considerable promise in their clinical trials and in their compassionate use across the nation, as they become available.
It's probably not too over-optimistic to hope that covid-19 will become much less of a mortality risk by mid-Summer, though some persons may not be able to take them due to pregnancy, drug interactions, or medical complications.
If the mortality risk today is as high as 3%, possibly higher depending on availability of ventilators and drugs to treat them (1,000 U.S. deaths out of yesterday's 50,000 cases), it may hover at about that level or worsen over the next few weeks if medical resources, ventilators, & drug supplies are consumed by a million new patients.
However, at some point in the next 2-3 weeks, the doubling rate should improve significantly, unless the U.S. is completely atypical. If we can get the doubling rate down to only once per week soon enough (within the next two weeks), we could bring this pandemic under control, and then, at first thousands, and then tens of thousands, and probably hundreds of thousands of Americans will begin to recover. At that point, the curve will get markedly flatter and at a much faster pace, because the doubling rate will be increased both due to fewer new cases and to massive numbers of former cases that will no longer be affected.
That may seem a rosy scenario, but Americans are a tough breed. We've gotten through economic depressions, massive recessions, a cold war with nukes pointed at us for decades, at least one hot war every decade, HIV/AIDS, ebola, and scores of other contagious diseases from polio to yellow fever, rising gun violence, hate crime, civil unrest, and various appalling failures by national and state leaders. We'll get through this, like we got through the others. But this time, we're all going to have to do our part.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 11:30 AM by jedclampett.)
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CV19 Impact on the new Media deal with ESPN?
