(03-08-2020 12:07 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote: With all the Test kits being shipped all over the country the number of cases will rapidly increase as more people will be tested.
So what you're saying is we weren't prepared, and we're about to find all of the cases we should have known about.
You got that from that post? No, it will actually show the true death rate is much lower than the reported 3+% that is currently reported.
It will be closer to the less than 1 % that the common flu yields today. That leaves the questions, have we not been prepared for the 25K to 75K deaths per year for the common flu all these years?
Yeah, China is for-sure over-reporting the death rate of this.
You must be tired because this repose makes no sense. I asked about the 25K to 75K deaths every year in the US, nothing to do with China.
(03-08-2020 12:22 AM)canewton Wrote: No one is arguing about easy solutions or one-stop solutions. You created that after you retreated from your travel ban lies. Thanks for finally being honest.
Actually you just lied what I said. Here's the entire post -->
"The president did, for that region of danger, early on. It helped but can't/didn't stop them all. Why do you think airline stocks have plummeted? In many cases self travel bans by many concerned US citizens.".
I said, self travel bans. Tell me where the lie is. Are you trying to say I lied about people NOT doing self travel bans. I know people who said that they will not travel to China. Prove me wrong!
(03-07-2020 11:40 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote: The president banned some travel to China and the airlines canceled flights to most of the rest of China(...)
As I've shown, you can still buy tickets to and from the affected areas no problem. There are no bans.
(03-08-2020 12:07 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote: With all the Test kits being shipped all over the country the number of cases will rapidly increase as more people will be tested.
So what you're saying is we weren't prepared, and we're about to find all of the cases we should have known about.
You got that from that post? No, it will actually show the true death rate is much lower than the reported 3+% that is currently reported.
It will be closer to the less than 1 % that the common flu yields today. That leaves the questions, have we not been prepared for the 25K to 75K deaths per year for the common flu all these years?
Yeah, China is for-sure over-reporting the death rate of this.
You must be tired because this repose makes no sense. I asked about the 25K to 75K deaths every year in the US, nothing to do with China.
The 3+% reported is largely due to the deaths related to coronavirus in China.
(03-08-2020 12:22 AM)canewton Wrote: No one is arguing about easy solutions or one-stop solutions. You created that after you retreated from your travel ban lies. Thanks for finally being honest.
Actually you just lied what I said. Here's the entire post -->
"The president did, for that region of danger, early on. It helped but can't/didn't stop them all. Why do you think airline stocks have plummeted? In many cases self travel bans by many concerned US citizens.".
I said, self travel bans. Tell me where the lie is. Are you trying to say I lied about people NOT doing self travel bans. I know people who said that they will not travel to China. Prove me wrong!
(03-07-2020 11:40 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote: The president banned some travel to China and the airlines canceled flights to most of the rest of China(...)
As I've shown, you can still buy tickets to and from the affected areas no problem. There are no bans.
Total Ban will never happen, business must be conducted and I suspect that inspections will increase for all arriving passengers.
(03-08-2020 12:11 AM)canewton Wrote: So what you're saying is we weren't prepared, and we're about to find all of the cases we should have known about.
You got that from that post? No, it will actually show the true death rate is much lower than the reported 3+% that is currently reported.
It will be closer to the less than 1 % that the common flu yields today. That leaves the questions, have we not been prepared for the 25K to 75K deaths per year for the common flu all these years?
Yeah, China is for-sure over-reporting the death rate of this.
You must be tired because this repose makes no sense. I asked about the 25K to 75K deaths every year in the US, nothing to do with China.
The 3+% reported is largely due to the deaths related to coronavirus in China.
Let me get this straight. You're complaining that we haven't tested everyone, yet you believe that China has tested all 1.4 billion of their citizens and their numbers are gold? I know they had a head start on us since they didn't tell us about the virus for a couple of months after they first found out about it, but that's pretty quick to test 1.4 billion people.
(03-08-2020 12:21 AM)sfink16 Wrote: You got that from that post? No, it will actually show the true death rate is much lower than the reported 3+% that is currently reported.
It will be closer to the less than 1 % that the common flu yields today. That leaves the questions, have we not been prepared for the 25K to 75K deaths per year for the common flu all these years?
Yeah, China is for-sure over-reporting the death rate of this.
You must be tired because this repose makes no sense. I asked about the 25K to 75K deaths every year in the US, nothing to do with China.
The 3+% reported is largely due to the deaths related to coronavirus in China.
Let me get this straight. You're complaining that we haven't tested everyone, yet you believe that China has tested all 1.4 billion of their citizens and their numbers are gold? I know they had a head start on us since they didn't tell us about the virus for a couple of months after they first found out about it, but that's pretty quick to test 1.4 billion people.
Do we test every single american for influenza infection to publish the 'less than 1% yield' you posted above?
(03-08-2020 12:24 AM)canewton Wrote: Yeah, China is for-sure over-reporting the death rate of this.
You must be tired because this repose makes no sense. I asked about the 25K to 75K deaths every year in the US, nothing to do with China.
The 3+% reported is largely due to the deaths related to coronavirus in China.
Let me get this straight. You're complaining that we haven't tested everyone, yet you believe that China has tested all 1.4 billion of their citizens and their numbers are gold? I know they had a head start on us since they didn't tell us about the virus for a couple of months after they first found out about it, but that's pretty quick to test 1.4 billion people.
Do we test every single american for influenza infection to publish the 'less than 1% yield' you posted above?
That's my point, the percentages are of those confirmed cases. The problem with coronavirus is that we don't know the numbers yet. As confirmed cases go up, the death rate will go down.
My other point to counter your (cheap shot) point about preparedness is, and you still haven't answered, have we not been prepared for the 25K to 75K death each year from the common flu? The answer is, Yes, as best we can we were prepared.
This new strain is much newer and will take time just like all new strains like H1N1 (Swine Flu), SARS, etc. took time.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2020 12:56 AM by sfink16.)
(03-07-2020 03:15 PM)PirateJP Wrote: Don’t buy in to the media hype, be cautious yes, but don’t buy into the panic the media is spreading.
Somewhere around 3,000 dead in 3 months isn’t hype.
How many do you think have died from the flu in 3 months?
North Carolina has had 26 flu deaths in the last 2 weeks.
The flu has like a 0.1% death rate. This $hit has a death rate around 3.4%. The 34 year old doctor that first sounded the alarm in China died I believe as well. This isn't just an old person concern or some hoax unfortunatly.
The media and goverment should alerting the population with facts, not this mixed messaging crap we are getting and we should have already had millions of test like some of these other countries had developed so we really know how bad it is.
I certainly hope it turns out to be overblown but this should concern everyone.
You don't just build a hospital in 6 days and spray streets like this for nothing IMO and seeing stuff like that is what concerns me of how bad it could get.
The serious complication rate is in the 10-15% range and the R naught is in the 2-4 range.
Folks, China doesn’t restrict 700,000,000 people and shut down its industry for the flu. Pay attention.
The only reason the case numbers are so low in the US is because we simply aren’t testing.
I’ve noticed that even in places like Dayton Ohio, the grocery stores show evidence of hoarding.
Downplay it if you want, but Id rather be safe than sorry.
Hand washing is more effective than using hand sanitizer and yet there is a nationwide shortage of hand sanitizer.
Quote:Catherine Belling, an associate professor of medical education at Northwestern University, likened such purchases (e.g., hand sanitizer)to how consumers might react to news of a zombie apocalypse.
“You do what you can,” she said. “It might not make a lot of sense, but it provides a feeling of at least doing something.”
Quote:Yale’s Dhar said it’s important to many consumers to maintain a feeling of being in control of their lives. The impulse to hoard reflects that.
“When people feel they do not have control over a risk, the emotional response is even more amplified,” Dhar said.
(03-07-2020 07:08 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Working in international relations I'll say this.....the Chinese government is comprised of a shady group of people. There's a ton of back and forth to how severe this 5hing actually is, as well as lasting effects. My best guess is it will die down around the same time flu season does, likely with fewer deaths.
The flu typically dies down as it warms up but this virus doesn’t seem to have those characteristics. I hope this is wrong but I have seen firsthand a ton of business cancellations associated with travel and conferences.
Hell, with as much as I have been working I’m all for a 14 day self quarantine.
(03-08-2020 12:04 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote: I see a huge surge in cases over the next 2-3 months and then huge drops and eventually a vaccine within 6 months which will eventually help the common cold as well.
It's the same virus just a different/new strain.
The top medical people believe a vaccine won’t be ready until a year at the earliest. This includes Dr. Fauci.
I can’t wait to revisit this thread in May when we should be peaking here in the States. As for Late August early September when football season begins, I think it will be done.
(03-07-2020 03:15 PM)PirateJP Wrote: Don’t buy in to the media hype, be cautious yes, but don’t buy into the panic the media is spreading.
How is this the media's fault? I understand that some folks like to make the media out to be the "enemy of the ppl" but the lack of a coherent message from the top and flat out mismanagement is what is creating the "hype" nobody in charge can get their story right. For example, POTUS says that a vaccine is around the corner ...when in reality it is likely a year out IF EVERYTHING goes right.
Leadership matters here but when those in charge can articulate a consistent and trustworthy message it makes it difficult for the rest of the country they are supposed to lead to make informed decisions, i.e. cancel sporting events.
(03-08-2020 12:04 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote: I see a huge surge in cases over the next 2-3 months and then huge drops and eventually a vaccine within 6 months which will eventually help the common cold as well.
It's the same virus just a different/new strain.
There is not going to be a vaccine a couple months...contrary to what the administration says.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2020 11:18 PM by CyberBull.)
(03-08-2020 12:04 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote: I see a huge surge in cases over the next 2-3 months and then huge drops and eventually a vaccine within 6 months which will eventually help the common cold as well.
It's the same virus just a different/new strain.
The top medical people believe a vaccine won’t be ready until a year at the earliest. This includes Dr. Fauci.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Unfortunately, some people don't believe in science and would rather believe so called experts who keep repeating that the vaccine is a few months away.
BTW, last year the administration either did away or almost completely gutted pathogen surveillance program outposts across the globe. The few millions they "saved" was lost in afew days as the virus for some reason caught the US by surprise, which is odd b/c China has been reporting on the situation since December.
The real concern here is that we don't know a whole bunch about this virus. We know that the %incidence is higher than flu...and waiting to see what happens next. However, if this was more deadly threat....this country would have been woefully unprepared and the lack of honest and coherent messaging by the govt...especially the White House....is inexcusable.
Quick note - I am being critical of the administration b/c they are in charge.
However, instead of blaming the media...the biggest problem right now is the partisan bickering.
It gets in the way of getting things done. This is similar to what happened during the Zika virus outbreak a few years ago. Dems/Rep bickered for almost 7 months about funding related to drug pricing and border wall funding. For politicians on both sides...they see the opportunity for political points. For the rest of.... zika, covid-19 and other diseases don't care if you are Red or Blue. Last time I checked both Republicans and Democrats die of cancer.
(03-08-2020 10:49 PM)TheEndIsNigh Wrote: I can’t wait to revisit this thread in May when we should be peaking here in the States. As for Late August early September when football season begins, I think it will be done.
It will live on in the South American winter, then make its place among the other corona viruses that visit us on a yearly basis.
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