(11-30-2019 11:27 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  What were the A-10's NET/RPI numbers last year? That league is trending downward.

The A-10 is not trending downward this season.

Here are some data points to make this crystal clear:


The A-10 is ranked well ahead of the AAC (#7 vs #10) in the current RPI conference rankings, mid-way through out-of-conference play, with only ~5-6 remaining regular season OOC games, on average.

Further:

There are more (3 vs 2) A-10 than AAC teams in ESPN's BPI top 50.


If this trend continues through December, the A-10 might end up being considered one of this season's "major 7 conferences."


Seven A-10 teams are currently ranked in the top 100 RPI rankings, and an 8th A-10 team is ranked #102.

In contrast, only 5 AAC teams are ranked #102 or higher:

A-10: #16, #29, #40, #55, #57, #72, #100, #102
AAC: #17, #33, #50, #62, #74, #113, #152, #163

The A-10 and AAC have 7 and 8 teams in the BPI top 100, respectively.

The W-L records of the upper-tier A-10 teams are on par with the AAC's.

Top 8 W-L records of top 8 A-10 and AAC teams:

....A-10.......................AAC
Duquesne 6-0............SMU 7-0
George Mason 8-1......Memphis 6-1
Richmond 6-1............Wichita St. 6-1
St. Louis 6-1..............Tulsa 6-1
Dayton 5-1................Tulane 5-1
VCU 6-2....................Temple 5-1
Rhode Island 5-2........Cincy 5-2
LaSalle 4-2................UConn 4-2

NOTE: The A-10 SOS rankings are higher than are the AAC's

I don't really know what to tell people who think this league needs a football add over basketball. With the UConn departure, the league shed a bad football program and lost a good basketball brand. Basketball is where the league lost value, period. That's what needs to be addressed. And unlike football, there are a dozen or more suitable programs that add sustainable value.

I'm taking VCU 10 times out of 10. Neither St. Louis nor Dayton fit the league's culture. Getting a respected public in a decent sized urban area is much more valuable than bringing on Catholic schools. I'd even take Rhody over St. Louis.

Time to revisit an AAC-A10 challenge? I know many will say it’s beneath us. I say lets prove it on the court.

(12-01-2019 06:58 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  Time to revisit an AAC-A10 challenge? I know many will say it’s beneath us. I say lets prove it on the court.

The A10 already has a challenge with the MWC. But maybe Aresco can get a deal where the bottom 3 A10 teams not chosen to participate can play AAC schools!

(12-01-2019 07:31 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 06:58 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  Time to revisit an AAC-A10 challenge? I know many will say it’s beneath us. I say lets prove it on the court.

The A10 already has a challenge with the MWC. But maybe Aresco can get a deal where the bottom 3 A10 teams not chosen to participate can play AAC schools!

We certainly have a bottom three to match.

(12-01-2019 07:31 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 06:58 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  Time to revisit an AAC-A10 challenge? I know many will say it’s beneath us. I say lets prove it on the court.

The A10 already has a challenge with the MWC. But maybe Aresco can get a deal where the bottom 3 A10 teams not chosen to participate can play AAC schools!

while meant as an insult I wouldn't mind adding the ACC school not participating in the ACC/B1G Challenge to the list.

Maybe a Challenge with the conference with Gonzaga, St. Mary’s and I think BYU is also there.

I always thought some kind of modified AAC/A10/WCC challenge would be good for all the parties involved. The WCC definitely could use solid programs visiting their gyms (they'd kill for a Wichita State or Houston to be playing games at USF or Loyola), and the AAC and A10 would get consistent games with Gonzaga and St. Mary's. Match teams up based on NET rankings from the previous year and rotate home courts.

Add Dayton for all sports to replace UConn, you end up with...

Dayton Basketball: 23 KenPom
UConn Basketball: 53 KenPom

Dayton Football: 205 Sagarin
UConn Football: 180 Sagarin

That's not even bad, considering Dayton is not millions in debt. A basketball focused team to replace a basketball focused team is the right move in my opinion.

(12-01-2019 02:10 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 11:27 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  What were the A-10's NET/RPI numbers last year? That league is trending downward.

The A-10 is not trending downward this season.

Here are some data points to make this crystal clear:


The A-10 is ranked well ahead of the AAC (#7 vs #10) in the current RPI conference rankings, mid-way through out-of-conference play, with only ~5-6 remaining regular season OOC games, on average.

Further:

There are more (3 vs 2) A-10 than AAC teams in ESPN's BPI top 50.


If this trend continues through December, the A-10 might end up being considered one of this season's "major 7 conferences."


Seven A-10 teams are currently ranked in the top 100 RPI rankings, and an 8th A-10 team is ranked #102.

In contrast, only 5 AAC teams are ranked #102 or higher:

A-10: #16, #29, #40, #55, #57, #72, #100, #102
AAC: #17, #33, #50, #62, #74, #113, #152, #163

The A-10 and AAC have 7 and 8 teams in the BPI top 100, respectively.

The W-L records of the upper-tier A-10 teams are on par with the AAC's.

Top 8 W-L records of top 8 A-10 and AAC teams:

....A-10.......................AAC
Duquesne 6-0............SMU 7-0
George Mason 8-1......Memphis 6-1
Richmond 6-1............Wichita St. 6-1
St. Louis 6-1..............Tulsa 6-1
Dayton 5-1................Tulane 5-1
VCU 6-2....................Temple 5-1
Rhode Island 5-2........Cincy 5-2
LaSalle 4-2................UConn 4-2

NOTE: The A-10 SOS rankings are higher than are the AAC's

lol rpi

Dayton is in the highest/best conference affiliation they'll ever get. They ain't going to the NBE and they ain't coming here. They are maxed out.

VCU would be the only team that any makes any sort of rational sense if they wanna add a 12th team for olympic sports.

(12-03-2019 02:22 PM)FadedCrown Wrote:  Add Dayton for all sports to replace UConn, you end up with...

Dayton Basketball: 23 KenPom
UConn Basketball: 53 KenPom

Dayton Football: 205 Sagarin
UConn Football: 180 Sagarin

That's not even bad, considering Dayton is not millions in debt. A basketball focused team to replace a basketball focused team is the right move in my opinion.

I would take Dayton as a basketball member but not as a football member. Would ESPN want them however? It would not be a bad idea if Aresco ask his friends at ESPN that question. There is a chance UC would object. Dayton is only 50 miles from UC and the two schools are not that friendly. They do not play each other if they can avoid it.

(12-03-2019 02:22 PM)FadedCrown Wrote:  Add Dayton for all sports to replace UConn, you end up with...

Dayton Basketball: 23 KenPom
UConn Basketball: 53 KenPom

Dayton Football: 205 Sagarin
UConn Football: 180 Sagarin

That's not even bad, considering Dayton is not millions in debt. A basketball focused team to replace a basketball focused team is the right move in my opinion.

Excuse me Mr. but Wichita would still be rottin in the Valley if it weren't for UCONN spearheading their addition.

Sooooooooooooooooo ungrateful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(12-03-2019 03:00 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  Dayton is in the highest/best conference affiliation they'll ever get. They ain't going to the NBE and they ain't coming here. They are maxed out.

VCU would be the only team that any makes any sort of rational sense if they wanna add a 12th team for olympic sports.

Dayton's issue is almost entirely with location: Xavier wouldn't let them into the Big East and I doubt that Cincinnati would want them in the AAC. (The fans might be cool with it, but history says that the powers that be will always work to block regional competition if at all possible.) It's too bad because Dayton has a great program with one of the best fan bases in college basketball.

I agree that VCU would fit in very well with the AAC.

FWIW, I think too many G5 fans seriously underestimate the value of basketball for expansion purposes. While basketball doesn't really matter with respect to P5 expansion, it can make quite a bit a difference at the G5 level. NCAA Tournament revenue sharing can have a significantly greater impact on the bottom line of G5 athletic department than CFP money (particularly when you consider the significantly higher expenses that come with the football program compared to basketball). I understand the attempt at the "P6" branding that Aresco has made for AAC football, but the reality is that the AAC won't ever be treated as a football power conference (and to the extent that it could ever actually reach that point, its most valuable pieces will most likely be picked off just like the old Big East football league and the SWC before that). The power structure in football is simply designed to handle around 65 schools - any more than that and the powers that be will break up a conference for parts as opposed to letting that entire conference into the power ranks.

For all of the conference realignment moves over the past 2 decades, the *overall* power structure has largely remained the same. In 1996 (the first year of the BCS system), there were 63 schools in the then-6 power conferences plus Notre Dame. Today, there are 65 schools in the 5 power conferences plus ND. The net change over that entire period was Louisville, Utah and TCU (who used to be in the power structure in the SWC) moving up and Temple moving down. So, as much as the conference compositions might have changed, we still have basically the same power schools today as we did over 2 decades ago. Anyone that thinks that's going to suddenly change and they're going to let 10-plus more schools into that power structure is chasing fool's gold. Maybe a couple of more individual *schools* will get into the power structure (e.g. the Big 12 decides to add 2 schools), but we certainly won't see an entire conference added.

On the other hand, no one would bat at an eye at including the AAC in a "P7" for basketball (the P5 plus the Big East and AAC). Basketball power is significantly more meritocratic than football power (which is based more on branding, prestige and other off-the-field factors) and that's a reasonably attainable position for the AAC. Frankly, the AAC has the leverage to create a killer basketball conference if it wanted to do so - they could effectively add anyone in the Eastern and Central Time Zones outside of the P5 and Big East. The AAC has much more control over its own destiny in basketball compared to football.

(12-03-2019 04:50 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 02:22 PM)FadedCrown Wrote:  Add Dayton for all sports to replace UConn, you end up with...

Dayton Basketball: 23 KenPom
UConn Basketball: 53 KenPom

Dayton Football: 205 Sagarin
UConn Football: 180 Sagarin

That's not even bad, considering Dayton is not millions in debt. A basketball focused team to replace a basketball focused team is the right move in my opinion.

Excuse me Mr. but Wichita would still be rottin in the Valley if it weren't for UCONN spearheading their addition.

Sooooooooooooooooo ungrateful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah I am really grateful for being in a conference that's basically a ticking time bomb.

Still better than the Valley.

(12-04-2019 10:40 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 03:00 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  Dayton is in the highest/best conference affiliation they'll ever get. They ain't going to the NBE and they ain't coming here. They are maxed out.

VCU would be the only team that any makes any sort of rational sense if they wanna add a 12th team for olympic sports.

Dayton's issue is almost entirely with location: Xavier wouldn't let them into the Big East and I doubt that Cincinnati would want them in the AAC. (The fans might be cool with it, but history says that the powers that be will always work to block regional competition if at all possible.) It's too bad because Dayton has a great program with one of the best fan bases in college basketball.

I agree that VCU would fit in very well with the AAC.

FWIW, I think too many G5 fans seriously underestimate the value of basketball for expansion purposes. While basketball doesn't really matter with respect to P5 expansion, it can make quite a bit a difference at the G5 level. NCAA Tournament revenue sharing can have a significantly greater impact on the bottom line of G5 athletic department than CFP money (particularly when you consider the significantly higher expenses that come with the football program compared to basketball). I understand the attempt at the "P6" branding that Aresco has made for AAC football, but the reality is that the AAC won't ever be treated as a football power conference (and to the extent that it could ever actually reach that point, its most valuable pieces will most likely be picked off just like the old Big East football league and the SWC before that). The power structure in football is simply designed to handle around 65 schools - any more than that and the powers that be will break up a conference for parts as opposed to letting that entire conference into the power ranks.

For all of the conference realignment moves over the past 2 decades, the *overall* power structure has largely remained the same. In 1996 (the first year of the BCS system), there were 63 schools in the then-6 power conferences plus Notre Dame. Today, there are 65 schools in the 5 power conferences plus ND. The net change over that entire period was Louisville, Utah and TCU (who used to be in the power structure in the SWC) moving up and Temple moving down. So, as much as the conference compositions might have changed, we still have basically the same power schools today as we did over 2 decades ago. Anyone that thinks that's going to suddenly change and they're going to let 10-plus more schools into that power structure is chasing fool's gold. Maybe a couple of more individual *schools* will get into the power structure (e.g. the Big 12 decides to add 2 schools), but we certainly won't see an entire conference added.

On the other hand, no one would bat at an eye at including the AAC in a "P7" for basketball (the P5 plus the Big East and AAC). Basketball power is significantly more meritocratic than football power (which is based more on branding, prestige and other off-the-field factors) and that's a reasonably attainable position for the AAC. Frankly, the AAC has the leverage to create a killer basketball conference if it wanted to do so - they could effectively add anyone in the Eastern and Central Time Zones outside of the P5 and Big East. The AAC has much more control over its own destiny in basketball compared to football.

If you will notice---those two concepts---picking off the most valuable members of a lesser conference and holding P5 membership at around 65 dont work well together. What we currently have is a somewhat unique situation that has not existed over the preceding 2-3 decades of the college football TV era. In the recent past, the conferences had room to grow and pay within those conferences was not as it now. Today, a G5 school can be worth 20 million a year in media value---a very "P5 worthy value"---yet adding such a school would actually DECREASE the average payout of the existing members of any current P5 school.

That situation has created a landscape where a conference can actually grow and develop P5 worthy membership without being poached. It will take years for a conference to develop organically to anything close to the P5 level---but I actually think that might be possible in the 2020's. I dont think it was in 1990's, 2000's or 2010's.

(11-26-2019 10:20 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I'd prefer St Louis.

St Louis can't touch Dayton's support. Dayton averages like 12k fans. They are the obvious next Witchita State to pair with Army.

Dayton is a good and consistent program. The A10 would miss them and their extremely passionate fanbase.

That said I don't think they'll be invited to another conference. Their desired conference is likely the Big East though.

Longest thread for an idea that will NEVER happen. We arent adding a team that would compete with Cinci. We arent adding teams that have overlapping markets. This was the dumbest of ideas five pages ago and here we are.

Can anyone explain to me why Western Kentucky is not a mentioned option on here?