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Right now I think I agree with both opinions of the outlook for this team. I think we're going to have a talented roster, but there's going to be a lot of new pieces that need to learn to play together if we're going to have a good team. We're going heavy JUCO this year with at least 4 JUCO commits. How those guys transition will be a big factor.

For a while now my theory has been that wings are the best players to try to get from the JUCO ranks. At PG you generally want to groom guys in the system before handing them the PG keys. So relying on a 2 year guy at PG is a risky idea. As for post players part of the issue with being a MAC school is guys over 6'7"ish don't generally fall to the MAC unless they have obvious flaws. Meaning they need time to develop before they're big contributors. Also, the normal skill set for a wing can fit in easier as they usually have the ability to shoot, create their own offense, and are not relied on to create for others as much. Not to mention, there are simply a lot more 6'3" - 6'5" guys in the world that effectively can shoot and slash than there are true PG's or polished 6'9" guys.

So if you want to go JUCO for posts you're likely talking undersized posts or projects and you don't look to JUCO for a project. So my personal opinion on building a team is try to build around 4 year PG's and posts and look to JUCO for your wings.

In my boredom I decided to look at how we've fared dipping into the JUCO ranks over the years in the different positions. I arbitrarily chose to go back to 07/08. To measure if a player was successful I'm using "Win Shares". For something like this WS is better than PER or WS/40 because WS accumulate the more you play, so it kind of gives you a view of how effective the guy is combined with how much he's playing. For example, Castillo was 8th on our team in WS/40 and 4th in PER, but he was clearly a miss. WS is like WAR in baseball.

Also, for this, I'm considering each individual year of each player that came from a JUCO. So for example, Frederick had a WS of 0.5 his first season, I'd call that a miss. His second year he had a solid 1.9 when he was a solid contributor. Additionally, players positions could change one year to another. For example, Williams first year he was primarily a wing but this last year he was primarily a PG.

We'll call any season with a WS at or over 1 a success and any season with a WS below 1 a failure.

Point Guards: Name, Class, WS
- Al Fisher, SR, 3.7
- Antonio Williams, SR, 3.3
- Al Fisher, SR, 3.1
- Michael Porrini, JR, 3.1
- Kevin Zabo, SR, 2.6
- Michael Porrini, SR, 2.4
- Kevin Zabo, JR, 1.1

Wings: Name, Class, WS
- Chris Evans, SR, 5.5
- Deon Edwin, SR, 4.1
- Troy Simons, SR, 4.0 (wasn't sure if I should count him since he was a transfer to us, but he did come out of JUCO originally)
- Carlton Guyton, JR, 3.6
- Antonio Williams, JR, 3.5
- Chris Evans, JR, 3.5
- Carlton Guyton, JR, 2.2
- Tyree Evans, SR, 2.1
- Tyree Evans, JR, 2.0
- Deon Edwin, JR, 1.8
- CJ Williamson, SR, 1.6
- Rashad Woods, JR, 1.6
- CJ Williamson, JR, 1.0
- Gary Ackbar, JR, 0.5
- Jerrel DeBerry, JR, 0.4
- Ian Pinckney, SO, 0.1
- Rashad Woods, SR, 0.1
- Devin Carter, SO, 0.0

Posts: Name, Class, WS
- Anthony Simpson, SR, 3.7
- Anthony Simpson, JR, 3.0
- Adonis De La Rosa, JR, 2.7
- Justin Manns, JR, 2.4
- Frank Henry Ala, SR, 2.3
- Akiean Frederick, SR, 1.9
- Darren Goodson, JR, 1.7
- Justin Manns, SR, 1.7
- Melvin Tabb, JR, 1.3
- Darren Goodson, SR, 0.9
- Adonis De La Rosa, SO, 0.6
- Akiean Frederick, JR, 0.5
- Frank Henry Ala, JR, 0.4
- Marvin Jones, JR, 0.3
- Anyeuri Castillo, JR, 0.2
- Leo Edwards, JR, 0.1
- Melvin Tabb, SR, 0.1
- Deandre Nealy, JR, 0.1
- Jonathan Nwankwo, JR, 0.0
- Greg Avila, JR, 0.0
- Gabe Garcia, JR, -0.1

So since the 07/08 season JUCO players have taken 46 of the 169 scholarships.

Of those 46...

7 played PG, all of them resulted in successful seasons for a 100% hit rate. The average WS was 2.76. In total this is 3.5 recruits over 13 years. All stayed through their Sr season.

18 played the wing. 13 of those 18 were successful seasons for a 72.2 hit rate. The average WS was 2.09. In total this is 11.5 recruits over 13 years. 4 eventually left the team.

21 played in the post. 9 of the 21 were successful seasons for a 42.9 hit rate. The average WS was 1.13. In total this is 14 recruits over 13 years. 9 eventually left the team.

My conclusion would be that PG's coming from JUCO are actually more successful than I expected, but the number is pretty low so that tells me that coaches are uneasy about giving a 2 year player the keys. Wings have been very very successful and one of those 5 misses (Devin Carter) wasn't actually a miss we just didn't play him. He turned out to be a damn good player. Posts from the JUCO ranks have been a total crap shoot so that confirms what I was expecting that relying on JUCO for post players is not wise. 9 of the 14 JUCO post recruits weren't on the team by the end of their Sr year.

What does this mean? Eh, I don't know... nothing? But hey, we got 3 guards coming in from JUCO. Likely 1 PG and 2 Wings. So based on this we should feel confident that at least two of those three should have successful seasons for us next year. And O'Neal needs hit campus ready to work because history is stacked against him.

(04-16-2020 05:21 PM)anti-zip Wrote:  Right now I think I agree with both opinions of the outlook for this team. I think we're going to have a talented roster, but there's going to be a lot of new pieces that need to learn to play together if we're going to have a good team. We're going heavy JUCO this year with at least 4 JUCO commits. How those guys transition will be a big factor.

For a while now my theory has been that wings are the best players to try to get from the JUCO ranks. At PG you generally want to groom guys in the system before handing them the PG keys. So relying on a 2 year guy at PG is a risky idea. As for post players part of the issue with being a MAC school is guys over 6'7"ish don't generally fall to the MAC unless they have obvious flaws. Meaning they need time to develop before they're big contributors. Also, the normal skill set for a wing can fit in easier as they usually have the ability to shoot, create their own offense, and are not relied on to create for others as much. Not to mention, there are simply a lot more 6'3" - 6'5" guys in the world that effectively can shoot and slash than there are true PG's or polished 6'9" guys.

So if you want to go JUCO for posts you're likely talking undersized posts or projects and you don't look to JUCO for a project. So my personal opinion on building a team is try to build around 4 year PG's and posts and look to JUCO for your wings.

In my boredom I decided to look at how we've fared dipping into the JUCO ranks over the years in the different positions. I arbitrarily chose to go back to 07/08. To measure if a player was successful I'm using "Win Shares". For something like this WS is better than PER or WS/40 because WS accumulate the more you play, so it kind of gives you a view of how effective the guy is combined with how much he's playing. For example, Castillo was 8th on our team in WS/40 and 4th in PER, but he was clearly a miss. WS is like WAR in baseball.

Also, for this, I'm considering each individual year of each player that came from a JUCO. So for example, Frederick had a WS of 0.5 his first season, I'd call that a miss. His second year he had a solid 1.9 when he was a solid contributor. Additionally, players positions could change one year to another. For example, Williams first year he was primarily a wing but this last year he was primarily a PG.

We'll call any season with a WS at or over 1 a success and any season with a WS below 1 a failure.

Point Guards: Name, Class, WS
- Al Fisher, SR, 3.7
- Antonio Williams, SR, 3.3
- Al Fisher, SR, 3.1
- Michael Porrini, JR, 3.1
- Kevin Zabo, SR, 2.6
- Michael Porrini, SR, 2.4
- Kevin Zabo, JR, 1.1

Wings: Name, Class, WS
- Chris Evans, SR, 5.5
- Deon Edwin, SR, 4.1
- Troy Simons, SR, 4.0 (wasn't sure if I should count him since he was a transfer to us, but he did come out of JUCO originally)
- Carlton Guyton, JR, 3.6
- Antonio Williams, JR, 3.5
- Chris Evans, JR, 3.5
- Carlton Guyton, JR, 2.2
- Tyree Evans, SR, 2.1
- Tyree Evans, JR, 2.0
- Deon Edwin, JR, 1.8
- CJ Williamson, SR, 1.6
- Rashad Woods, JR, 1.6
- CJ Williamson, JR, 1.0
- Gary Ackbar, JR, 0.5
- Jerrel DeBerry, JR, 0.4
- Ian Pinckney, SO, 0.1
- Rashad Woods, SR, 0.1
- Devin Carter, SO, 0.0

Posts: Name, Class, WS
- Anthony Simpson, SR, 3.7
- Anthony Simpson, JR, 3.0
- Adonis De La Rosa, JR, 2.7
- Justin Manns, JR, 2.4
- Frank Henry Ala, SR, 2.3
- Akiean Frederick, SR, 1.9
- Darren Goodson, JR, 1.7
- Justin Manns, SR, 1.7
- Melvin Tabb, JR, 1.3
- Darren Goodson, SR, 0.9
- Adonis De La Rosa, SO, 0.6
- Akiean Frederick, JR, 0.5
- Frank Henry Ala, JR, 0.4
- Marvin Jones, JR, 0.3
- Anyeuri Castillo, JR, 0.2
- Leo Edwards, JR, 0.1
- Melvin Tabb, SR, 0.1
- Deandre Nealy, JR, 0.1
- Jonathan Nwankwo, JR, 0.0
- Greg Avila, JR, 0.0
- Gabe Garcia, JR, -0.1

So since the 07/08 season JUCO players have taken 46 of the 169 scholarships.

Of those 46...

7 played PG, all of them resulted in successful seasons for a 100% hit rate. The average WS was 2.76. In total this is 3.5 recruits over 13 years. All stayed through their Sr season.

18 played the wing. 13 of those 18 were successful seasons for a 72.2 hit rate. The average WS was 2.09. In total this is 11.5 recruits over 13 years. 4 eventually left the team.

21 played in the post. 9 of the 21 were successful seasons for a 42.9 hit rate. The average WS was 1.13. In total this is 14 recruits over 13 years. 9 eventually left the team.

My conclusion would be that PG's coming from JUCO are actually more successful than I expected, but the number is pretty low so that tells me that coaches are uneasy about giving a 2 year player the keys. Wings have been very very successful and one of those 5 misses (Devin Carter) wasn't actually a miss we just didn't play him. He turned out to be a damn good player. Posts from the JUCO ranks have been a total crap shoot so that confirms what I was expecting that relying on JUCO for post players is not wise. 9 of the 14 JUCO post recruits weren't on the team by the end of their Sr year.

What does this mean? Eh, I don't know... nothing? But hey, we got 3 guards coming in from JUCO. Likely 1 PG and 2 Wings. So based on this we should feel confident that at least two of those three should have successful seasons for us next year. And O'Neal needs hit campus ready to work because history is stacked against him.

Well done!!

One thing to check in the future (particularly w/post players) is to see how many of them actually began their careers as D1 players. While they obviously had issues at their first stop, they also (1) were qualifiers out of high school, (2) had a year of D1 education and (3) a year of exposure and D1 coaching.

Porrini, Al Fisher, Chris Evans, Zabo, De La Rosa, Tabb are a few who come to mind that fit this profile. I think this enhances a players chance for success out of juco over some others.

I know I used to think that players with D1 experience logically will translate from JUCO to D1 better, some recent examples have made me second guess that so I agree, that is an interesting topic.

I looked back at the players I mentioned, this is what I found.

JUCO players who had D1 experience before Kent:
- Simons (again, not sure he counts), 2.1 WS at N. Mexico as a JR.
- Williamson, -0.1 WS at Tx Tech as a FR.
- Zabo, 0.2 WS at San Diego St as a FR.
- Edwin, 0.2 WS at S Miss as a FR.
- Edwards, 0.2 WS at LA Tech as a FR.
- Tabb, -0.1 WS at Wake Forest as a FR.
- C Evans, 0.7 WS at Coastal Carolina as a FR.
- Porrini, 0.3 WS at Western Carolina as a FR.
- Fisher, 0.3 WS at Siena as a FR.
- Woods, 0.1 WS at DePaul as a FR.

Players that started at a D1 school but never played.
- De La Rosa, St Johns
- Nwankwo, VCU

Out of this group I would say Simons, Williamson, Zabo, Edwin, Evans, Porrini, ADR, and Fisher were all successful here. Woods, Edwards, Tabb,and Nwankwo were not. So we're hitting 67% on those guys.

Of the post players though we're 25% so at least for us prior D1 experience for a post isn't an indicator they'll be successful. Of all the post players from my last post I'd say 6 of the 14 were successful here so we're actually hitting on a better percent on JUCO guys without D1 experience.

For non post players I'd say 7 of the 8 with prior D1 experience I'd classify as successful recruits for us. Of all the non post players from my previous post I'd say 10 of 15 were successful meaning only 3 (Guyton, Williams, and Evans) out of 7 (the other 4 are DeBerry, Ackbar, Pinckney, and Carter) of the guys with no D1 experience were successful. So for perimeter players it does look like having prior D1 experience has yielded better results.

None of our current JUCO recruits have prior D1 experience for what that's worth.

Some other examples of regular transfers with prior D1 experience that didn't work out.
- Kain Harris, 0.5 and 0.4 WS as a FR and SO at Tulane.
- Taishaun Johnson, 0.7 and 0.1 WS as a FR and SO at S. Alabama.

Welcome Justyn Hamilton, transfer from Temple, 6'10". That is the last of the scholarships.

https://twitter.com/jham21__?lang=en

Another comment on our JUCO recruits. Here's the top 100 JUCO rankings for this year.

https://www.jucorecruiting.com/2020-juni...gs-top-100

Smith is 35th, Jacobs is 66th, and Jordan is 79th. O'Neal is honorable mention.

The highest ranked MAC recruit at this point is #31 Seth Millner going to Toledo. Smith is 2nd among MAC recruits.

Our old friend Deandre Gholston is one spot ahead spot ahead of Smith.

The #1 player played with Jacobs at Indian Hills and 3 more of Jacobs teammates are ranked ahead of him as well. Smith has a teammate ranked 23rd.

They've been doing these rankings since 2017 and the Kent recruits ranked as follows.
2019 - Castillo 65th
2018 - Ahmed Ali - 55th, Nuga unranked
2017 - Simons 21st

(04-17-2020 12:45 PM)anti-zip Wrote:  Another comment on our JUCO recruits. Here's the top 100 JUCO rankings for this year.

https://www.jucorecruiting.com/2020-juni...gs-top-100

Smith is 35th, Jacobs is 66th, and Jordan is 79th. O'Neal is honorable mention.

The highest ranked MAC recruit at this point is #31 Seth Millner going to Toledo. Smith is 2nd among MAC recruits.

Our old friend Deandre Gholston is one spot ahead spot ahead of Smith.

The #1 player played with Jacobs at Indian Hills and 3 more of Jacobs teammates are ranked ahead of him as well. Smith has a teammate ranked 23rd.

They've been doing these rankings since 2017 and the Kent recruits ranked as follows.
2019 - Castillo 65th
2018 - Ahmed Ali - 55th, Nuga unranked
2017 - Simons 21st

IIR ... Jordan was inside the Top 35 before the season started and he suffered a back injury. Checking his stats, outside of PPG this season, his percentages remained really good as well as his a/to, his rpg and apg.

If he reverts to something close to his freshman ppg (18 ppg???) then Senderoff might have himself a shooting gallery.

Also, other than Jacobs, all these guards a top level FT shooters as well, which can never be underrated.

Right now it seems like the key juco for Kent looks to be O'Neal. Hopefully he is no worse and hopefully better than Goodson, and certainly nothing close to Tabb.

(04-17-2020 12:39 PM)GoFlashes8 Wrote:  Welcome Justyn Hamilton, transfer from Temple, 6'10". That is the last of the scholarships.

https://twitter.com/jham21__?lang=en

Three-star recruit out of high school, but his stats are not impressive.

https://temple-news.com/temple-mens-bask...-transfer/

(04-17-2020 01:30 PM)cschierh Wrote:  

(04-17-2020 12:39 PM)GoFlashes8 Wrote:  Welcome Justyn Hamilton, transfer from Temple, 6'10". That is the last of the scholarships.

https://twitter.com/jham21__?lang=en

Three-star recruit out of high school, but his stats are not impressive.

https://temple-news.com/temple-mens-bask...-transfer/

Big guy for the rotation

(04-17-2020 01:30 PM)cschierh Wrote:  

(04-17-2020 12:39 PM)GoFlashes8 Wrote:  Welcome Justyn Hamilton, transfer from Temple, 6'10". That is the last of the scholarships.

https://twitter.com/jham21__?lang=en

Three-star recruit out of high school, but his stats are not impressive.

https://temple-news.com/temple-mens-bask...-transfer/

Looks like he's got rare size and mobility for the MAC. Based on his numbers and the fact that Beck and Pippen are Srs I think a redshirt year would be the best thing for him. Which he'll have assuming there's not a waiver or a rule change.

(04-17-2020 01:43 PM)anti-zip Wrote:  

(04-17-2020 01:30 PM)cschierh Wrote:  

(04-17-2020 12:39 PM)GoFlashes8 Wrote:  Welcome Justyn Hamilton, transfer from Temple, 6'10". That is the last of the scholarships.

https://twitter.com/jham21__?lang=en

Three-star recruit out of high school, but his stats are not impressive.

https://temple-news.com/temple-mens-bask...-transfer/

Looks like he's got rare size and mobility for the MAC. Based on his numbers and the face that Beck and Pippen are Srs I think a redshirt year would be the best thing for him. Which he'll have assuming there's not a waiver or a rule change.

If he's a Justin Manns-type, should be good for quality minutes.

Plus the one highlight was shooting a three.

(04-17-2020 01:43 PM)anti-zip Wrote:  

(04-17-2020 01:30 PM)cschierh Wrote:  

(04-17-2020 12:39 PM)GoFlashes8 Wrote:  Welcome Justyn Hamilton, transfer from Temple, 6'10". That is the last of the scholarships.

https://twitter.com/jham21__?lang=en

Three-star recruit out of high school, but his stats are not impressive.

https://temple-news.com/temple-mens-bask...-transfer/

Looks like he's got rare size and mobility for the MAC. Based on his numbers and the fact that Beck and Pippen are Srs I think a redshirt year would be the best thing for him. Which he'll have assuming there's not a waiver or a rule change.

or play him and redshirt Bainbridge and or kalin.

Cleveland, you couldn't be more right about FT shooting. If my memory serves me well, the Flashes winning percentage this past season was pretty good when they shot a decent percentage.

I don't know how well Hamilton will play, but a player his height can always come in handy.

His value may come more as a practice player. We have him for 2 years in that role. It is hard to duplicate height even in practices and we will certainly play against that size at some time down the road. Looks like sit a year to get a year.

Rob's been pretty successful with the sit a year get a year guys. Simons and Pollard were the previous two. Hopefully Nuga keeps that trend going. We've had much more luck going that route than grad transfers or sit a year get two in recent memory. Galal Cancer and Craig Brown being the grad transfers and Harris and Johnson being the two year transfers. It makes sense. If you have to commit two years to get one year from a guy the level of player available will be higher than guys you can commit 1 for 1 or 3 for 2. You pay more for less time you should get more in that time.

Beck is the rare 2 for 2 D1 transfer. Mixed bag so far, but I think he'll play an important role next year.

Also, I agree on the practice aspect of this addition. That makes him more valuable in his redshirt year than typical redshirts.

(04-17-2020 04:59 PM)anti-zip Wrote:  Rob's been pretty successful with the sit a year get a year guys. Simons and Pollard were the previous two. Hopefully Nuga keeps that trend going. We've had much more luck going that route than grad transfers or sit a year get two in recent memory. Galal Cancer and Craig Brown being the grad transfers and Harris and Johnson being the two year transfers. It makes sense. If you have to commit two years to get one year from a guy the level of player available will be higher than guys you can commit 1 for 1 or 3 for 2. You pay more for less time you should get more in that time.

Beck is the rare 2 for 2 D1 transfer. Mixed bag so far, but I think he'll play an important role next year.

Also, I agree on the practice aspect of this addition. That makes him more valuable in his redshirt year than typical redshirts.

Usually, when teams redshirt one guy they often redshirt two ... Davis might be the perfect No. 2 as the staff takes a year to figure out just what position he'll be most successful in.

I think what set Duling behind (then out) was Kent trying to figure out where to play him as a true freshman, then being forced to play him in the post as a sophomore. He never had that year to grow and fjnd his niche. So it was never clear if he was really any good or not.

Davis has some of the same Duling characteristics, primarily an undersized but physical baseline player in high school who should transition to the perimeter. Although I must say, based on highlights, Davis seems more offensively advanced.

Not sure I agree that if a team redshirts one guy they usually redshirt two. At this point only way we redshirt two is if we choose to redshirt a second one. Looking back over the last few years Hernandez is the only guy we've voluntarily redshirted in a while. I think before Hernandez the most recent was in 2015-2016 we redshirted Hurley and Alonzo Walker. Voluntarily redshirting is much less common now because of the 5th year transfer option. The idea that the NCAA might allow everyone to transfer without sitting out once could put an end to that though, we'll see.

At any rate, if we do voluntarily redshirt anyone next year we should all feel very good about the new guys coming in. We're only returning 27.4% of our minutes played last year. So if the coaches feel comfortable enough with the team to voluntarily limit themselves to 11 scholarship players before the season starts then they're seeing a lot of good things in preseason.

Anthony Roberts latches on with St Bonaventure.

I just dont get it with the Bonnies. He could have built a legacy here.

It's a step up but not a big one. Might get a little more exposure but probably not that much. In terms of playing time it's probably a good landing spot for him. Here's an interesting question though, does he view them as a stepping stone too? Sit a year, play a year, then test the grad transfer waters if he plays well.