(03-16-2019 10:13 PM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  

(03-16-2019 02:50 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:45 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'm 99% confident that Buffalo will beat CMU and 65% confident that BG will beat NIU. This means I'm placing a MAC East vs. MAC East title game at an 82% chance of occurring.

I'm not sure the probs were correct but now they are 100%.

I got about 64%. The probability of a joint event (UB winning .and. BG winning) = prob of UB winning (supposedly 99%) x prob of BG winning (supposedly 65%).

.99 x .65 = .64.

20 - 20 hindsight = 100% probs.

How can one assign any accurate probability of victory to an event with as many variables as a basketball game? I think only those who inhabit Maddawg’s world think that can be done. That word “supposedly” looms large in any attempt at statistical analysis.

You are correct. They are not (usually) calculated using defined metrics, e.g., based on 50 occurences of a semi-final between a #1 and a #4, the #1 won X% of the times. Ditto for #2 vs. whatever.

In these cases, someone ends up with their subjective guess as to what the probability would be.

I would have made UB say an 85% chance of beating CMU.

I would have made BG say 60% chance of beating NIU.

Purely subjective.

As far as the NCAAs, we have a lot of data. #1 has played #16 4 times per tourney for how many years (since the tourney was expanded to 64 or more teams)?

So #16 over #1 has occurred 1 time in over 100 tries, hence the odds of it happening should be say less than 1%.

We can calculate odds for #15 over #2, 14 over #3, etc.

As we close in on their NCAA Tourney game, it's a good time to reflect that in Buffalo's first five years in the MAC (1998-2003) their overall record was 31-112. It was a disaster. This year alone UB is 31-3. What a season.

(03-20-2019 10:50 AM)zrb2 Wrote:  As we close in on their NCAA Tourney game, it's a good time to reflect that in Buffalo's first five years in the MAC (1998-2003) their overall record was 31-112. It was a disaster. This year alone UB is 31-3. What a season.

Interesting take ...

https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2019/03...e-mac.html

(03-20-2019 11:09 AM)cleveland Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 10:50 AM)zrb2 Wrote:  As we close in on their NCAA Tourney game, it's a good time to reflect that in Buffalo's first five years in the MAC (1998-2003) their overall record was 31-112. It was a disaster. This year alone UB is 31-3. What a season.

Interesting take ...

https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2019/03...e-mac.html

two points of correction in his article:

- second paragraph, first sentence: the word should be "an" not "and"
- Ohio has an Elite Eight appearance, too (sure it's 1964 but it still counts)

A typical Alexander article. He brought up some interesting talking points, but I found the substance of the article itself to be pretty lacking. Is he proposing that Akron should spend more money on its basketball program when it's currently facing a 15 million/year budget deficit and has declining enrollment?

(03-20-2019 11:54 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  A typical Alexander article. He brought up some interesting talking points, but I found the substance of the article itself to be pretty lacking. Is he proposing that Akron should spend more money on its basketball program when it's currently facing a 15 million/year budget deficit and has declining enrollment?

Seems to be laying out what it's going to take to be competitive with Buffalo ... regardless of program.

(03-20-2019 11:33 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 11:09 AM)cleveland Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 10:50 AM)zrb2 Wrote:  As we close in on their NCAA Tourney game, it's a good time to reflect that in Buffalo's first five years in the MAC (1998-2003) their overall record was 31-112. It was a disaster. This year alone UB is 31-3. What a season.

Interesting take ...

https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2019/03...e-mac.html

two points of correction in his article:

- second paragraph, first sentence: the word should be "an" not "and"
- Ohio has an Elite Eight appearance, too (sure it's 1964 but it still counts)

These are my two big takeaways: (Copied them verbatim):

"Second, Buffalo seems to understand MAC-level football has an unbreakable ceiling. Basketball is where the school’s growth and brand identity can be expanded to be on par with state power Syracuse.

Third, Buffalo is a professional sports town, but has no professional basketball. Oats’ salary reflects Buffalo’s growth in attendance, which should only improve as time goes on. Once the Bulls start bringing in quality non-conference opponents it will only get better. And because UB plays Division I football, the chance to bring in those opponents will increase."

********************

Simply put, UB might be the most financially stable of the MAC schools (they seem, to me, more like a flagship university than a MAC school) and is perfectly willing to invest money in basketball.

If they draw 6K to a game and other schools less than 2,500 who will have the bucks to spend on coaches' salaries and game guarantees like them???

If Oats can do it in 2019-2 he'll have a power house there. He does lose a lot of talent though after this season.

It's great to see the U at Buffalo spending money and investing in hoops while the program is in this golden era (men's and women's). This season it feels like the wall has finally been broken down when it comes to interest/attendance from the average Buffalo sports fan- who is unaffiliated with the University. They filled up Alumni Arena even when the students were on breaks. The local media (TV, radio and print) have been all over the Bulls story this season. Will it remain that way when the program(s) take a step back while attempting to reload? We shall see. Also on deck this spring, UB is opening a new $20M indoor field-house. It will put football amenities on par with the other cold weather FBS programs. They used to have to take a bus to Orchard park, 18 miles away to practice indoors. No more. They can practice indoors on campus in a beautiful facility.

(03-20-2019 01:11 PM)zrb2 Wrote:  It's great to see the U at Buffalo spending money and investing in hoops while the program is in this golden era (men's and women's). This season it feels like the wall has finally been broken down when it comes to interest/attendance from the average Buffalo sports fan- who is unaffiliated with the University. They filled up Alumni Arena even when the students were on breaks. The local media (TV, radio and print) have been all over the Bulls story this season. Will it remain that way when the program(s) take a step back while attempting to reload? We shall see. Also on deck this spring, UB is opening a new $20M indoor field-house. It will put football amenities on par with the other cold weather FBS programs. They used to have to take a bus to Orchard park, 18 miles away to practice indoors. No more. They can practice indoors on campus in a beautiful facility.

Congrats to UB. They are doing everything right and having good fortune.

Should be interesting to see if the Bulls can be a long-term MBB power like other upstart mid-majors have done. UB has the good fortune of producing a lot of income from their MBB team, not to mention donations.

http://www.ubbulls.com/tickets/basketball/index

Ive got the Bulls with a 13 percent chance to get to the Elite 8 this year. These metrics are totally in love with UVA and Gonzaga, probably a little excessively, but I think you would have to be crazy to not have UVA or Gonzaga as your national champ this year. One time that I have as 4th most likely to win the national championship is 3 seed Houston. Another team that might be worth placing a wager on is Wofford, 4% of playing in national title game as a 7 seed.

http://godawgz.com/tourneyproj.html

(03-20-2019 12:41 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 11:33 AM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 11:09 AM)cleveland Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 10:50 AM)zrb2 Wrote:  As we close in on their NCAA Tourney game, it's a good time to reflect that in Buffalo's first five years in the MAC (1998-2003) their overall record was 31-112. It was a disaster. This year alone UB is 31-3. What a season.

Interesting take ...

https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2019/03...e-mac.html

two points of correction in his article:

- second paragraph, first sentence: the word should be "an" not "and"
- Ohio has an Elite Eight appearance, too (sure it's 1964 but it still counts)

These are my two big takeaways: (Copied them verbatim):

"Second, Buffalo seems to understand MAC-level football has an unbreakable ceiling. Basketball is where the school’s growth and brand identity can be expanded to be on par with state power Syracuse.

Third, Buffalo is a professional sports town, but has no professional basketball. Oats’ salary reflects Buffalo’s growth in attendance, which should only improve as time goes on. Once the Bulls start bringing in quality non-conference opponents it will only get better. And because UB plays Division I football, the chance to bring in those opponents will increase."

********************

Simply put, UB might be the most financially stable of the MAC schools (they seem, to me, more like a flagship university than a MAC school) and is perfectly willing to invest money in basketball.

If they draw 6K to a game and other schools less than 2,500 who will have the bucks to spend on coaches' salaries and game guarantees like them???

If Oats can do it in 2019-2 he'll have a power house there. He does lose a lot of talent though after this season.

I bet they jump ship to the AAC.

Seeing a lot of people with UB beating Michigan.

Also, is UMASS ever planning on going dancing again?????

(03-20-2019 06:04 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Seeing a lot of people with UB beating Michigan.

Also, is UMASS ever planning on going dancing again?????

Texas Tech game worries me for UB, that's a tough matchup.

(03-20-2019 06:04 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Also, is UMASS ever planning on going dancing again?????

Its a football school now....

(03-20-2019 08:33 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 06:04 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Seeing a lot of people with UB beating Michigan.

Also, is UMASS ever planning on going dancing again?????

Texas Tech game worries me for UB, that's a tough matchup.

UB gets TT on 2 day turnaround which helps.

(03-20-2019 10:58 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 08:33 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 06:04 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Seeing a lot of people with UB beating Michigan.

Also, is UMASS ever planning on going dancing again?????

Texas Tech game worries me for UB, that's a tough matchup.

UB gets TT on 2 day turnaround which helps.

Arizona State but your point is well taken. I do not know how 11 seeds fair coming back after playing two days earlier.

I believe ASU played Friday March 15 and then last night and then plays again Friday.

That sounds good but I think they may have too much travel - Las Vegas to Phoenix to Dayton to Tulsa all in 8 days.

Will ASU has tired legs????

It's a strange feeling to be favored in an NCAA Tourney game and expected to win. It's nice to get ASU coming off a play-in game and having to travel. On the flip side ASU may have shaken off the tournament nerves last night and UB will need to deal with that quickly and play their A game. We'll see how it goes. I'm going to try and not panic if ASU looks like the looser team early and leads through the first half.

The at-large play-in opponents have actually done quite well in the round of 64. I went ahead and looked backed to 2014 and the 11 seed has won 5 out of the 10 games. History suggests an 11 seed should only have a 37.5% chance of beating a 6. The play-in opponents are outperforming those numbers.

I've heard that some actually view the play-in game as an advantage, not disadvantage. The 11 seed already has a game on the big stage under their belt so will come out loose instead of coming out looking like a deer in headlights. Also, having a week off can make some teams rusty.

2018
Syracuse

2017
USC

2016
Wichita State

2015
Dayton

2014
Tennessee

(03-21-2019 08:09 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  The at-large play-in opponents have actually done quite well in the round of 64. I went ahead and looked backed to 2014 and the 11 seed has won 5 out of the 10 games. History suggests an 11 seed should only have a 37.5% chance of beating a 6. The play-in opponents are outperforming those numbers.

I've heard that some actually view the play-in game as an advantage, not disadvantage. The 11 seed already has a game on the big stage under their belt so will come out loose instead of coming out looking like a deer in headlights. Also, having a week off can make some teams rusty.

2018
Syracuse

2017
USC

2016
Wichita State

2015
Dayton

2014
Tennessee

Yep, as soon as I saw the bracket, I didn't like that Buffalo's opponent was the "play-in" 11th seed.

(03-20-2019 10:56 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-20-2019 06:04 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Also, is UMASS ever planning on going dancing again?????

Its a football school now....

It's now a hockey school.

Good luck to Buffalo on their dance.
Regard returning since the 2014 one and done. It will be a while as the new coach has fired all his assistants and 7 players once again have left the program.