(03-10-2019 03:40 PM)Tribal Wrote: - 1 on anything related to firing the only good coach we've had in my lifetime.
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I'll balance this out with a +1.
The only "good" coach we've had hasn't won 20 D-I games in a season (the only games that count - not non-scholly, D-III, etc.) but once in his W&M career (09-10). Better teams have their coaches hired away and teams as bad as us usually fire their coaches. All of this talk about he's "well-respected in the industry" pretty much means that he's a nice guy who has an okay program. If he were actually thought that highly of (as some coaching genius merely shackled by his program and resources), then some other school would have at the very least
interviewed him for a move up. It's been 16 years, they know what he's capable of doing with a program. What he's capable of doing with a program is 226-268 (131-169) with remarkable talent for the school and conference such as MT and NK (and these records include the inflation from the basically exhibition games against Goucher, Washington Adventist, etc.). Lest we all think that that's only the first few years, he's 139-144 in the last nine years, since his one campaign that topped 20 real wins. And that's against a weaker CAA (no VCU, Mason, etc.).
We play in a conference with about 10 teams (a few more in a particular year back during conference shuffling, but that's about right). Just with back of the napkin numbers, in 16 years, 32 teams have made the conference title game. That means we should see a single average team having made the title game 3.2 times and won it 1.6 times. We don't quite hit even those middle of the road marks.
Additionally, there seems to be some attribution to Tony of player development. I don’t see it. What many people consider player development is merely a player getting bigger, taller, and more used to D-I basketball over a few years of weightlifting and playing D-I ball. That would happen under any coach at any Division I school in the country. What they don’t get better at is playing defense, passes, decision making, etc. That’s the type of player development that is attributable to a coach and that I don’t see. Just because a player’s scoring goes up because other players have graduated doesn’t mean the coach has “developed” him.
What’s the downside of moving on? Missing the NCAA tournament? The rest of the country doesn’t care if W&M goes 17-13 and misses the tournament or 13-17 and misses the tournament. They ultimately become the same thing. What you do have, though, is the possibility of getting someone in there who makes the tournament. If the next guy can’t get it done, then you look again. After 16 years of under .500 ball, I think we’ve established that it’s time to give someone else a chance to go for it.
It seems like most on this board are content with W&M trotting out "a nice little program" that has a winning record almost half the time. I understand that many posters have been run off both here and the old CAA Talk boards for expressing any opinion questioning Tony, but the fact that he's a nice guy has bought him 16 years.. Simply because a previous coach was horrid doesn't mean we should settle for simply below average at this point. Tony is a good guy. The program is no longer a laughing stock. Those are low bars for someone who has been here for that long.
Edit to add: I'm not sure we even want to get into his propensity for ignoring an entire half of the game of basketball (defense) most years.