(11-09-2018 10:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 08:43 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  There is another scenario/scenarios that I have not seen mentioned so far this time through this discussion...wait until the Big XII/ACC brakes up/is broken up and seek to affiliate with the leftovers. By far this is superior to Independence or dropping down to a Horizon/Summit/DIII. Problem is, we stink worse than ever almost across the board (WBB not withstanding currently) and really hurting our consideration for even this possibility.

The other option is AAC, to re-affiliate with the likes of UH/SMU/Tulane/Tulsa...who left us and don't have much compelling reason to look back at us.

That SEC bid/non-bid along with Arkansas back in the day is the thing I always think of during these threads and it really disappoints me and colors my view of the school as a whole, academics notwithstanding, and even then.

My only problem with this is that we'd once again be at the mercy of others. I think we need to be proactive, not reactive. Make a good guess as to the losers in the Big12/ACC break-up and start playing them in every sport... even if we lose... even if it costs us money... Pay the money it takes to be competitive with them in Olympic sports and develop ties. The value of a Rice education for non-rev sports with little or no path to the pros should REALLY set us apart from g5... and this is really where I am disappointed in JK and company... including the BOT.

With the relative value of a Rice scholarship vis a vis CUSA and g5, we should be able to get GREAT players in every non-rev sport. If we aren't, it's because we aren't casting a broad enough net and/or aren't selling our product very well. No, we won't get EVERY great player, but we should be getting much more than 'our fair share'. I don't care if it costs us $1mm more to do this.... I think the value of having our name mentioned at the NCAAs or in the Olympics 1/5th as often as Stanford and Oregon are would be worth it.

Word.


But we just lost our tie to Kansas, for instance. I agree, we would do well to be proactive with this next realignment. At least try to act like we belong with some of these guys. Kansas, K-Stste, Iowa State, and some of the ACC leftovers (who would you guess will be left in those conferences?) would be a sight better for us than MTSU, WKu, NTx, et al.

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)I45owl Wrote:  Houston is an easier ask for opponents, but games at Rice Stadium may become very scarce if Rice plays as an independent.

Are you thinking a LOT more scarce? I think we'd still have at least 5 home games. With only about 10,000 seats paid what difference does it make? Especially if we now control our broadcasts.

Navy and Army have both come to us. Most ex CUSA schools would still come. We might have to replace ODU or FIU with UL for a home/home, but so what?

(11-09-2018 11:00 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Word.


But we just lost our tie to Kansas, for instance. I agree, we would do well to be proactive with this next realignment. At least try to act like we belong with some of these guys. Kansas, K-Stste, Iowa State, and some of the ACC leftovers (who would you guess will be left in those conferences?) would be a sight better for us than MTSU, WKu, NTx, et al.

My guess would be pretty uninformed and I fear it would be used by some to somehow try and invalidate the postulate... but I'll go ahead.

In the ACC, I'd say Wake, Miami, Maybe BC. Duke probably survives on basketball until Coach K retires anyway
In the B12 I'd say Baylor, Tech, TCU, Kansas ? I don't know if Basketball still saves Kansas

We lost our Kansas tie for football, but I don't think football is the entre.

Let me give you an example... Interestingly, NMSU was the Equestrian national champ in 2016 and Fresno in 2017. SMU is #2, Baylor, TCU is #6, SweetBriar, South Carolina, Georgia, Fresno, A&M, OSU and Auburn all compete with each other this season. I'd sure love to have their ADs on our campus every so often.

I may be reading it wrong but I think the Big12 has 7 schools that play softball... that means they have an opening and lots of games to fill.

Apparently 9 Big12 schools play volleyball, but 10 play football. Ok State doesn't seem to play? Could we be volleyball conference mates with the Big12?

(11-07-2018 06:27 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-07-2018 05:22 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  No, it was not covered by the McKinsey study, which is now long obsolete as the NCAA landscape has changed so much over the last 15 years. Any study would need to not only look into the viability and potential benefits of going independent in football, but also look at the likely impact on all the other sports (including the viability of finding an accepting conference affiliation). Personally, I don't think it's doable, but I'd be amenable for the undertaking of a study.

This is an excellent point - McKinsey is dated and rather obsolete.

A new study would need to re-examine the options including,
1. FBS (current)
2. FBS as independent
3. FCS
4. D1 but dropping football
5. Divison 3/Dropping everything

I never got through the McKinsey study, but did it address the endemic culture of corruption among peer institutions?

The Conference change and experience over the last 15 years changes things a lot, but just The Rice Investment makes a massive change in how the study may play out if they updated it. My guess is the results would be a lot different.

(11-09-2018 11:52 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)I45owl Wrote:  Houston is an easier ask for opponents, but games at Rice Stadium may become very scarce if Rice plays as an independent.

Are you thinking a LOT more scarce? I think we'd still have at least 5 home games. With only about 10,000 seats paid what difference does it make? Especially if we now control our broadcasts.

Navy and Army have both come to us. Most ex CUSA schools would still come. We might have to replace ODU or FIU with UL for a home/home, but so what?

I think the schedule in Houston would look something like this at Rice Stadium: UH (0.5), Academies (1.0), G5 (1.0), FCS (1.0) ... 3.5 total
and at Reliant: Big12 (2*0.33), P5 (2*0.33) ... 1.33 total
And Robertson: UH (0.5)
Houston Total: 5.33
Outside Houston: Academies (1.0), G5 (1.0), Big 12/P5 (4*0.66)
Outside Houston: 4.66

IMHO, that's the best case for Rice as an independent. It would give reasonable revenue, but not a great path to a bowl game unless Rice performs a lot better.

(11-09-2018 03:37 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I don't really understand how going 1-11 as an independent is better than going 1-11 as a member of CUSA.
That's the real problem. We've got to get better--and a lot better--on the field before any of this matters.

If it would be easier to recruit to a 1-11 team that plays a schedule at 3-4 G5 schools plus a couple of academies, and the remainder local Texas schools, then presumably you could get to be a 4-6 to 6-4 team faster that way than you might be able to in CUSA.

(11-10-2018 04:10 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 03:37 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I don't really understand how going 1-11 as an independent is better than going 1-11 as a member of CUSA.
That's the real problem. We've got to get better--and a lot better--on the field before any of this matters.

If it would be easier to recruit to a 1-11 team that plays a schedule at 3-4 G5 schools plus a couple of academies, and the remainder local Texas schools, then presumably you could get to be a 4-6 to 6-4 team faster that way than you might be able to in CUSA.

I think all of these independent scenarios are assuming a schedule that we can't do. Notre Dame is probably the most appealing independent in the country, and they choose to get 3 games a year out of a scheduling arrangement with the ACC. I'd like to think those scheduling scenarios are possible. But I don't.

(11-07-2018 06:26 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  but going forward they are less likely to schedule them now that the P5's have exempted them from the restrictions on G5 scheduling.

I'm having trouble parsing this even presuming that they/them/them all refer to BYU. I'm not aware of what G5 restriction you're referring to?

(11-08-2018 11:41 AM)Pimpa Wrote:  Can't tell me that at least half of the SWC that we played towards the end of the conference's existence were "academic peers". I think the academic peers argument is a good one, but I also think geographic proximity plays a large role as well. Since it is looking less and less likely that we will be able to get into a conference with those other schools, that is why some would consider independence the means to that end.

In that comparison, the worst rated schools of the SWC were probably better academic schools than the highest rated schools in CUSA.

(11-10-2018 08:39 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-07-2018 06:26 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  but going forward they are less likely to schedule them now that the P5's have exempted them from the restrictions on G5 scheduling.

I'm having trouble parsing this even presuming that they/them/them all refer to BYU. I'm not aware of what G5 restriction you're referring to?

I can't remember the details, but the P5 conferences agreed that their schools need to have a maximum of X number of games against G5/FCS schools per year.

(11-10-2018 03:48 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 11:52 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(11-08-2018 01:25 PM)I45owl Wrote:  Houston is an easier ask for opponents, but games at Rice Stadium may become very scarce if Rice plays as an independent.

Are you thinking a LOT more scarce? I think we'd still have at least 5 home games. With only about 10,000 seats paid what difference does it make? Especially if we now control our broadcasts.

Navy and Army have both come to us. Most ex CUSA schools would still come. We might have to replace ODU or FIU with UL for a home/home, but so what?

I think the schedule in Houston would look something like this at Rice Stadium: UH (0.5), Academies (1.0), G5 (1.0), FCS (1.0) ... 3.5 total
and at Reliant: Big12 (2*0.33), P5 (2*0.33) ... 1.33 total
And Robertson: UH (0.5)
Houston Total: 5.33
Outside Houston: Academies (1.0), G5 (1.0), Big 12/P5 (4*0.66)
Outside Houston: 4.66

IMHO, that's the best case for Rice as an independent. It would give reasonable revenue, but not a great path to a bowl game unless Rice performs a lot better.

Why would we only get 1 g5 school? Haven't we already decided that NMSU and Liberty would likely play us? You don't think UTSA, UNT, UTEP, La Tech, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV would do some rotating home and home's?

As to revenue... I think what you've described would be vastly more than we currently get.... or than we have recently anyway

(11-10-2018 04:10 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-09-2018 03:37 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I don't really understand how going 1-11 as an independent is better than going 1-11 as a member of CUSA.
That's the real problem. We've got to get better--and a lot better--on the field before any of this matters.

If it would be easier to recruit to a 1-11 team that plays a schedule at 3-4 G5 schools plus a couple of academies, and the remainder local Texas schools, then presumably you could get to be a 4-6 to 6-4 team faster that way than you might be able to in CUSA.

I agree that we have to be a lot better... It's controlling the message as to why I'd consider independence... and I don't think recruits would care about the difference between going 1-11 against this years schedule and any of the ones we've described. If they haven't bought in to Rice, they aren't coming based on whom we play.

Quote:I think all of these independent scenarios are assuming a schedule that we can't do. Notre Dame is probably the most appealing independent in the country, and they choose to get 3 games a year out of a scheduling arrangement with the ACC. I'd like to think those scheduling scenarios are possible. But I don't.

I think many CUSA schools would make that same ACC arrangement.

(11-10-2018 09:57 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

Quote:I think all of these independent scenarios are assuming a schedule that we can't do. Notre Dame is probably the most appealing independent in the country, and they choose to get 3 games a year out of a scheduling arrangement with the ACC. I'd like to think those scheduling scenarios are possible. But I don't.

I think many CUSA schools would make that same ACC arrangement.

No, they wouldn't. Because the ACC wouldn't make it. It takes two to tango--and to contract.

for more comparison:


Liberty Flames
IA FBS | 4-5

Passing Yards
19th
323.9 PYPG

Rushing Yards
168th
153.5 RYPG

Total Yards Per Game
31st
477.4 YPG

Sat, Sep 1 vs Old Dominion W 52 - 10
Sat, Sep 8 @ Army L 38 - 14
Bye Week
Sat, Sep 22 vs North Texas L 47 - 7
Sat, Sep 29 @ New Mexico W 52 - 43
Sat, Oct 6 @ N. Mex. St. L 49 - 41
Sat, Oct 13 vs Troy W 22 - 16
Sat, Oct 20 vs Idaho St. W 48 - 41
Sat, Nov 3 @ UMass L 62 - 59
Sat, Nov 10 @ Virginia L 45 - 24
Date Home/Away Opponent Time
Sat, Nov 17 @ Auburn 4:00 PM EST
SECN
Sat, Nov 24 vs N. Mex. St. 2:00 PM EST
ESP3
Sat, Dec 1 vs Norfolk St. 2:00 PM EST
ESP3

(11-10-2018 10:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(11-10-2018 09:57 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

Quote:I think all of these independent scenarios are assuming a schedule that we can't do. Notre Dame is probably the most appealing independent in the country, and they choose to get 3 games a year out of a scheduling arrangement with the ACC. I'd like to think those scheduling scenarios are possible. But I don't.

I think many CUSA schools would make that same ACC arrangement.

No, they wouldn't. Because the ACC wouldn't make it. It takes two to tango--and to contract.

But remember the triggering factor for Notre Dame getting to the ACC was the breakup of the Big East with the football teams that formed the AAC. Notre Dame felt it needed to find a better home for its non-football programs than what was left in the Big East, and the ACC drove a hard bargain (5 football games per year, not 3 - unless that 3 was a reference to the number of away games). If the P4 ever happens, then Notre Dame will finally be forced to join the ACC, but until then, this will probably continue.

But in this case, it took the ACC wanting to do it. It does take 2 to tango. There isn't another team outside the P5 that could drive that bargain - and probably most in the P5 probably couldn't drive it, either.

The one lesson in this is probably this - make your non-football teams worth adding, and maybe an independence route can work, if you can find a decent conference to take you as a non-football member. Rice is a long way from even that.

(11-11-2018 08:50 AM)gsloth Wrote:  The one lesson in this is probably this - make your non-football teams worth adding, and maybe an independence route can work, if you can find a decent conference to take you as a non-football member. Rice is a long way from even that.

Concur. We don't have enough to offer to make independence work. Other than ND, BYU, and the service academies, nobody has the kind of national brand to make it work. And 2 of the 3 service academies have given it up, and Notre Dame is fairly close to being a member of the ACC.

I'm guessing the independents other than ND, BYU, and Army see it as a temporary state. I expect the rest to find conference homes as fast as they can. And I'm not sure that even those three will stay independent forever.

Sorry I wasn't clear....

What I meant was that I think lots of CUSA schools, specifically UTEP, UTSA and UNT along with likely La Tech would be willing to schedule regular home and homes with us.

We're close... We're not a threat to recruit most of their players.. it's an extra trip to a hotbed of recruiting and alumni for them (without extra cost)... and at least at the moment, they have a decent shot at a win.

There may be years when the schedules don't align, but I don't see a problem getting 4-6 g5 home and homes... so I see at least 1/2 and as many as 1.5 more than I-45 was talking about... respectfully

(11-11-2018 02:34 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Sorry I wasn't clear....
What I meant was that I think lots of CUSA schools, specifically UTEP, UTSA and UNT along with likely La Tech would be willing to schedule regular home and homes with us.
We're close... We're not a threat to recruit most of their players.. it's an extra trip to a hotbed of recruiting and alumni for them (without extra cost)... and at least at the moment, they have a decent shot at a win.
There may be years when the schedules don't align, but I don't see a problem getting 4-6 g5 home and homes... so I see at least 1/2 and as many as 1.5 more than I-45 was talking about... respectfully

Problem is, when you are in a conference, unless it has an odd number of teams, you are pretty much playing a conference schedule throughout October and November. We could probably easily get 12 games in September, but I don't think that's what we want to do. The SEC teams all play a weak sister in the penultimate week of the regular season to get a break before their rivalry games (Alabama-Auburn, Mississippi-Mississippi State, LSU-aTm, Georgia-Georgia Tech, South Carolina-Clemson, Tennessee-Vanderbilt, Florida-Florida State, Missouri-Arkansas, Kentucky-Louisville) so that's another 14 we could schedule if we could get them all in one day. But in between, I think we'd be doing a lot of home-and-homes with NMSU and Liberty to get a schedule.

And again, without a conference for our non-revenue sports, we'd be in a world of hurt with them. Besides that, if the problem is our lack of "peer-ness" with the CUSA schools, I'm not sure what going independent and then scheduling them accomplishes.

Another problem is, this independence scheme has to work, because what is the next step if it doesn't? Reapplying to conferences.

(11-11-2018 04:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Problem is, when you are in a conference, unless it has an odd number of teams, you are pretty much playing a conference schedule throughout October and November. We could probably easily get 12 games in September, but I don't think that's what we want to do. The SEC teams all play a weak sister in the penultimate week of the regular season to get a break before their rivalry games (Alabama-Auburn, Mississippi-Mississippi State, LSU-aTm, Georgia-Georgia Tech, South Carolina-Clemson, Tennessee-Vanderbilt, Florida-Florida State, Missouri-Arkansas, Kentucky-Louisville) so that's another 14 we could schedule if we could get them all in one day. But in between, I think we'd be doing a lot of home-and-homes with NMSU and Liberty to get a schedule.

And again, without a conference for our non-revenue sports, we'd be in a world of hurt with them. Besides that, if the problem is our lack of "peer-ness" with the CUSA schools, I'm not sure what going independent and then scheduling them accomplishes.

Why would we be in a world of hurt with non-revs? Baseball and Basketball, maybe... but non revs have all sorts of quirks... see the Big12 missing a WVB team... SEC missing a men's swimming team... that create opportunities for alignment. We may have to add or change some sports, but these are not as big an ask as it is to 'buy' our way into a p5 conference otherwise. Just about any sport we want to play outside of the big3 is represented in this and nearby states at big schools but not every school. That's opportunity

Also, LSU had an opening in November to play us. Just this coming weekend, Alabama plays Citadel ODU plays VMI, UNC plays WCU, Umass plays Auburn, Liberty plays Ga, So Car plays Chattanooga, NMSU plays BYU... That's just this week and only the games I THINK aren't conference games. Washington and Arizona were both off last week.

I'm not saying it will be easy... but that's 15 other teams with holes in their schedules in November. Yes, it gets tougher later in November.....

but consider that we're playing 13 games this year, and the weekend AFTER this one is our last game of the year.... and iirc, NMSU and Liberty play 'again' weekend after next

So how are we any worse off?

(11-11-2018 04:48 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Another problem is, this independence scheme has to work, because what is the next step if it doesn't? Reapplying to conferences.

This is a 'playing not to lose' attitude. I understand it, but it also is why we are where we are. We should be applying to other conferences NOW... and should continue doing so if we go independent. That's actually specifically why I want to dump CUSA...

1) control our message and define our brand ourselves, which is a highly academic school that values 'the whole' person.
2) market SPECIFICALLY to our message and brand and not as part of a 'We are CUSA' message, which negates our biggest asset
3) create tertiary alliances with these 'better' conferences through non-rev sports and try and leverage that along with THEIR academic sides (because I am pretty sure that 95+% of p5 schools are vastly superior academically to the rest of CUSA, and many are comparable to us)


Because the option is to stay here and try and be at the top of CUSA and earn our way ATHLETICALLY into one of those conferences... Something we've been failing to do now for 30 years and 3-4 conference versions and I don't see that changing without SOME kind of significant action.

Our other options best I can tell are try and outspend g5. We're in the top quartile I believe now and it's not working or to catch lightening in a bottle not once, but multiple times in a row with coaches.

(11-11-2018 06:52 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Why would we be in a world of hurt with non-revs? Baseball and Basketball, maybe... but non revs have all sorts of quirks... see the Big12 missing a WVB team... SEC missing a men's swimming team... that create opportunities for alignment. We may have to add or change some sports, but these are not as big an ask as it is to 'buy' our way into a p5 conference otherwise. Just about any sport we want to play outside of the big3 is represented in this and nearby states at big schools but not every school. That's opportunity

If we could join those leagues it might work. But I'm not sure playing every sport in a different league is a great idea. And the bigger problem is that we aren't really good enough in any of those sports to attract interest now.

Quote:Also, LSU had an opening in November to play us. Just this coming weekend, Alabama plays Citadel ODU plays VMI, UNC plays WCU, Umass plays Auburn, Liberty plays Ga, So Car plays Chattanooga, NMSU plays BYU... That's just this week and only the games I THINK aren't conference games. Washington and Arizona were both off last week.

This is that penultimate weekend I was talking about where we could probably get 14 games. I think you just named most of them. But not on other weekends in November or in October.

Quote:I'm not saying it will be easy... but that's 15 other teams with holes in their schedules in November. Yes, it gets tougher later in November.....
but consider that we're playing 13 games this year, and the weekend AFTER this one is our last game of the year.... and iirc, NMSU and Liberty play 'again' weekend after next
So how are we any worse off?

As I've said, that's 15 teams with a hole on the same weekend. We can only play one of them, and that leave 3-4 more weekends in November and 4-5 in October, where there are far fewer opportunities. And we're not the only ones wanting those slots.

(11-11-2018 07:02 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  If we could join those leagues it might work. But I'm not sure playing every sport in a different league is a great idea. And the bigger problem is that we aren't really good enough in any of those sports to attract interest now.

I can't remember the specifics, but UT does sailing in a league other than the B12 and Fla State in WLAX and others.

Is this ideal? Of course not... and it needs to be investigated... I'm just saying we can't summarily dismiss it.

Quote:As I've said, that's 15 teams with a hole on the same weekend. We can only play one of them, and that leave 3-4 more weekends in November and 4-5 in October, where there are far fewer opportunities. And we're not the only ones wanting those slots.

[/quote]

All I did was select this year... I didn't cherry pick... We play 13 games this year and are done in just 2 weekends. October has tons of bye weeks and non-conference games... and as you note, we only need one of them. Last weekend had 2 byes in the top 25 and I'm sure many non-conference games as well. I'll look if I need to, but do I really? This weekend there are 16. To think there would be 16 week 10 and none week 9 seems unlikely... and if it is? SO what? Take a bye week the first weekend of November and another in October. The final weekend Liberty and NMSU play each other for the second time, so we play one one week, and one the next. That puts us a week beyond this years schedule... potentially 14 games.... AND we had a bye week in September THIS year??

We could have had 3 bye weeks and STILL get 12 games.

I understand what you're saying... but the idea that it 'can't be done' is demonstrably untrue. There are a significant number of unusual pairings and bye weeks all year long.