(06-28-2018 02:08 PM)eastisbest Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 12:48 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 07:03 AM)Michigan Rocket Wrote:  I read somewhere that restaurants opened by Former NFL Players fail on the average of 75% of the time. Gradkowski's is no exception. Too bad.

90-95% of restaurants fail in the first year.

think about that a moment. Does that match your reality? If 10 businesses opened, you do not see nine of them in a year? 19 out of 20, gone?

Wouldn't be sustainable. At 95%, there wouldn't even be infrastructure business to support the industry. It's bad, closer to half but not 95% bad. Over five years, your 90% may be closer.

Well, unless you can show me research otherwise of course. But my number instincts say, not possible for an industry to survive at that failure rate.

90-95% is the old Am Ex #. Most of the studies quoted now are from 2008-2014 and claim 60% failure rate(usually done at Universities with Hospitality Mgt programs) with recent #'s showing a rapid rise in closings. Chipotle is latest chain to announce a large number of closings(65) with changes in markets and move to cleaner fresher meals. Large cities with sizable affluent populations are the areas where dining out is thriving.

(06-28-2018 12:48 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 07:03 AM)Michigan Rocket Wrote:  I read somewhere that restaurants opened by Former NFL Players fail on the average of 75% of the time. Gradkowski's is no exception. Too bad.

90-95% of restaurants fail in the first year.

I don't think that stat is close to being correct. Not sure where it came from (but see below), but when I looked it up before a prior post it was lower than that over a 4-5 year period from the date of opening. Here is what Forbes indicated in an article addressing that issue:

An American Express commercial even warned that 90% (ie restaurants) failed in the first year. This is, to put it simply, false.

They indicated the failure rate is more like 17% in the first year.

That is not to say the restaurant business is not highly risky. You have to plow money back into it constantly for wear and tear and to update or change the motif, work long hours and deal with various employee issues that is a total nightmare. Getting good cooks/chefs is very difficult and making sure workers show up for work and are doing drugs in the bathroom while working are among a few of the problems.

(06-28-2018 04:07 PM)MotoRocket Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 12:48 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 07:03 AM)Michigan Rocket Wrote:  I read somewhere that restaurants opened by Former NFL Players fail on the average of 75% of the time. Gradkowski's is no exception. Too bad.

90-95% of restaurants fail in the first year.

I don't think that stat is close to being correct. Not sure where it came from (but see below), but when I looked it up before a prior post it was lower than that over a 4-5 year period from the date of opening. Here is what Forbes indicated in an article addressing that issue:

An American Express commercial even warned that 90% (ie restaurants) failed in the first year. This is, to put it simply, false.

They indicated the failure rate is more like 17% in the first year.

That is not to say the restaurant business is not highly risky. You have to plow money back into it constantly for wear and tear and to update or change the motif, work long hours and deal with various employee issues that is a total nightmare. Getting good cooks/chefs is very difficult and making sure workers show up for work and are doing drugs in the bathroom while working are among a few of the problems.

If you noticed the Forbes data was from 1992 to 2014. Recently increased wages have been a big thing, but more and more people are dining at home except as I stated before in large cities with a sizable affluent population. My wife is in management with a national company that specializes in meals to be cooked at home, prepared and specialty foods. It is a big trend. Yum!

(06-28-2018 04:07 PM)MotoRocket Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 12:48 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(06-28-2018 07:03 AM)Michigan Rocket Wrote:  I read somewhere that restaurants opened by Former NFL Players fail on the average of 75% of the time. Gradkowski's is no exception. Too bad.

90-95% of restaurants fail in the first year.

I don't think that stat is close to being correct. Not sure where it came from (but see below), but when I looked it up before a prior post it was lower than that over a 4-5 year period from the date of opening. Here is what Forbes indicated in an article addressing that issue:

An American Express commercial even warned that 90% (ie restaurants) failed in the first year. This is, to put it simply, false.

They indicated the failure rate is more like 17% in the first year.

That is not to say the restaurant business is not highly risky. You have to plow money back into it constantly for wear and tear and to update or change the motif, work long hours and deal with various employee issues that is a total nightmare. Getting good cooks/chefs is very difficult and making sure workers show up for work and are doing drugs in the bathroom while working are among a few of the problems.

Making sure workers are doing drugs in the bathroom is not a big problem. It usually requires very little supervision. Just leave some blow on the sink and most workers are very good about doing it on their own.

I think the new Mancy operation coming in at the old Schorlings will be a good add for the area.

The problem with the Gateway project is that it was intended as a first phase, but subsequent phases have yet to follow so it lacks the critical mass to sustain itself

(06-29-2018 12:11 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  The problem with the Gateway project is that it was intended as a first phase, but subsequent phases have yet to follow so it lacks the critical mass to sustain itself

(06-29-2018 01:50 PM)Rocket Pirate Wrote:  

(06-29-2018 12:11 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  The problem with the Gateway project is that it was intended as a first phase, but subsequent phases have yet to follow so it lacks the critical mass to sustain itself

That may be the reason but I honestly think Grad's was doomed from conception (and staff training). I can also see the need for more synergy. I really like the Japanese place but am not likely to drive across town to fix an urge. More of an, HEY, it's just a few blocks away, when I happen to be that way.

I like the Kerrytown (Ann Arbor) or Rust Belt (Ferndale) concept for that spot. I think, and have offered before that you compete with Amazon by having what they cannot provide, store/classes. Cooking store. Cooking classes. Pottery, crafting.... diesal engine store. Cooking/Pottery, diesal repair classes. Kind of attracts people of like mind and makes it their destination. Parking lot is huge, so a great place for weekend farmers' market and maker's mart. Heck, I bet you could find ways for some of those Profs to put their tinkering talents to work.

Designed as that, it would be year round, flexible and it's really not a big leap from what they have. In a maker's mart, if a business "fails," another just fills the spot. Just needs that tweak. It's something that could grow organically, instead of "planned community" which tend to fail big time.

Now K-Town also has the nearby attraction of Zingerman's Deli. With a similar situation, Grad's might work, if they made their own stuff, did something different. Maybe Takacs or Stanley's could open a shop and... oh. Poco Loco's II. With a set-up like K-town, it would also be a better place for Mancy's than where they're putting it but maybe even Mancy's as close as it is, could fill the role of a Zingerman's.

You know I'm right, BUT no one wants to listen. Seriously, Ferndale is a good model for that Dorr-Secore-Byrndale spot. That part of Detroit, there are no mansions. It is middle class, family housing and it's booming because they've made it economical for peope to start small businesses where they can display their talents: being crafty, creative and dynamic. In other words, exactly what a University is supposed to be.

(06-29-2018 12:11 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  The problem with the Gateway project is that it was intended as a first phase, but subsequent phases have yet to follow so it lacks the critical mass to sustain itself

Disappointing that the subsequent phases have not happened. Will they ever?? Could you imagine what that area would look like with another Gateway complex? It's rather frustrating when these elaborate plans are created but never come to fruition. That area really needs continued development.

(06-29-2018 10:56 PM)inductchuck16 Wrote:  

(06-29-2018 12:11 PM)indianasniff Wrote:  The problem with the Gateway project is that it was intended as a first phase, but subsequent phases have yet to follow so it lacks the critical mass to sustain itself

Disappointing that the subsequent phases have not happened. Will they ever?? Could you imagine what that area would look like with another Gateway complex? It's rather frustrating when these elaborate plans are created but never come to fruition. That area really needs continued development.

The plans are there but UT Foundation is not going to build spaces until they have signed contracts with vendors to occupy them. Just my opinion but the westgate-Secor (to 475) rapid expansion has pretty much doomed any future widespread commerical development in additional Gateway developments