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(09-25-2018 12:42 PM)Fthechips Wrote:  

(09-25-2018 11:48 AM)DrDavis Wrote:  

Quote:Posted by brovol - Yesterday 04:13 PM


(Yesterday 04:02 PM)DrDavis Wrote:
Last week to get your revised predictions on record. I am sticking with 6-6. Hoping for better.
What is it about this team which makes you think we won't be an 8 or 9 win team? Is it player talent, coaching, the incredible high level of the MAC competition we will be facing from this point forward, or something else?

- Recent history/last years performance
- Long running history of program
- Coaching staff is unproven/my personal lack of confidence in them
- Defense inability to stop a good running team
- Remaining schedule - history against Toledo and NIU
- Our history of losing games late in the season that we should win

I tend to agree w/ this. I just don't see all that much improvement from last year. I don't think this team will win 9 or even 8 games. Probably around 6 or 7. Just seems like this team is very middle of the road. Hoping for consistent success with this program not a magical season once every 100 years. This may not happen in KB's tenure.

We played GAST better than we did Idaho. We've had 10 quarters of a decent passing game this year. Last year at this point we had 6.

Just a slight improvement there means we beat Akron, NIU and CMU last year, hence my 9-game prediction.

That's simplistic, but the passing game does look more crisp, and Reed emerging so far as a threat catching it anywhere has been nice. We do still need a go-to guy we can throw it to on third down.

(04-17-2018 09:56 AM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  8-4 feels about right.

Still feels like 8-4 (6-2) if at a minimum we play even close to our potential in conference play.

(09-25-2018 02:07 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  

(04-17-2018 09:56 AM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  8-4 feels about right.

Still feels like 8-4 (6-2) if at a minimum we play even close to our potential in conference play.

And stay healthy at key positions like OL/QB and LB.

This is how I have it.

@Miami: Slight underdogs on the road. 50/50 at best.
Eastern: EMU has simply played better than we have so far, and it seems is on the upswing. We won last year in game EMU probably still upset about. I think its an L for us.
@Bowling Green: BG hasn't been very good so far, and just lost to Miami. Anything can happen, but I think we should win. W
@CMU: CMU has been terrible. If we dont win this game we have serious problems. W
Toledo: Toledo is consistently very good, and while we have them at home, I fear we are at risk of wasting the @home opportunity. I just haven't seen enough quality football from our team against a quality opponent as good as Toledo to think, at this juncture, that we will likely win. L
Ohio: Another good team; but Ohio has played a couple tough teams and lost competitive games they probably think they should have won. Ohio usually excellent defensively, but lately they are a bit more open and polished on offense too. To me this looks like a close game, but I have it as a road loss. L
@Ball St: This should be a win. BS played Notre Dame tough, but still a struggling program. Could bite us in the rear, but I have it as a win. W
NIU: NIU has had a brutal schedule so far. It hung in against Utah, with a chance to win, and played competitively to start each game, but playing FSU, Utah, and Iowa in same season? Hard to asses what NIU will be. I still think they will be better than us, based on my current conclusions regarding our own program. L

I think that ALL of our remaining games are not only winnable, but that we SHOULD win them. I just think that we wont win the games indicated. In fact, there isnt a game left that I am certain we will win. That's true in the MAC with almost any game though. Hope I'm wrong, but time will tell.

(09-25-2018 03:03 PM)brovol Wrote:  This is how I have it.

@Miami: Slight underdogs on the road. 50/50 at best.
Eastern: EMU has simply played better than we have so far, and it seems is on the upswing. We won last year in game EMU probably still upset about. I think its an L for us.
@Bowling Green: BG hasn't been very good so far, and just lost to Miami. Anything can happen, but I think we should win. W
@CMU: CMU has been terrible. If we dont win this game we have serious problems. W
Toledo: Toledo is consistently very good, and while we have them at home, I fear we are at risk of wasting the @home opportunity. I just haven't seen enough quality football from our team against a quality opponent as good as Toledo to think, at this juncture, that we will likely win. L
Ohio: Another good team; but Ohio has played a couple tough teams and lost competitive games they probably think they should have won. Ohio usually excellent defensively, but lately they are a bit more open and polished on offense too. To me this looks like a close game, but I have it as a road loss. L
@Ball St: This should be a win. BS played Notre Dame tough, but still a struggling program. Could bite us in the rear, but I have it as a win. W
NIU: NIU has had a brutal schedule so far. It hung in against Utah, with a chance to win, and played competitively to start each game, but playing FSU, Utah, and Iowa in same season? Hard to asses what NIU will be. I still think they will be better than us, based on my current conclusions regarding our own program. L

I think that ALL of our remaining games are not only winnable, but that we SHOULD win them. I just think that we wont win the games indicated. In fact, there isnt a game left that I am certain we will win. That's true in the MAC with almost any game though. Hope I'm wrong, but time will tell.

Such a shame too, regarding all the talent we have been pushing through this program. We'll probably go 6 or 7 wins and the staff will sweep it under the rug and feed us some BS to get us excited for the next year(which will also likely be 6-7 wins). Repeat process until Lester's contract runs out. Still can't believe this University botched such a huge opportunity to take this program to the next level.

For all the talent that exists in this program there are still a couple of pretty big weaknesses particularly on the defensive side of the ball (interior DL and depth in secondary, and overall experience). Now I have said before I don't think it should be a matador unit like we saw early on and I certainly still think this is a team that should challenge for the MACC.

If the staff can get to 8 or even 7 wins though then we may have something.. Barring unusual attrition or injuries I'm not seeing where those weaknesses will exist next year. Maybe interior DL.. but if that's still the case, sorry, year 3 that's entirely on the current staff IMO given they didn't exactly have an entire roster to rebuild. Senior QB, great weapons in the backfield and out wide, and I believe there's good talent on this defense that will have some seasoning.

IMO with the way the 2019 roster is shaping up this should be a favorite for the MAC and should be able to take down a P5 given the right matchup (say, Cuse minus Dungey?) Sorry to look ahead too much.

I predict we beat Miami Saturday to go to 3-2, 1-0 - and there will be half a dozen posters on here bitching we didn't win by more, didn't play well, coaching sucked, etc.

(09-25-2018 05:20 PM)MajorHoople Wrote:  I predict we beat Miami Saturday to go to 3-2, 1-0 - and there will be half a dozen posters on here bitching we didn't win by more, didn't play well, coaching sucked, etc.

It would take us back to flecks second and third years. I bet that really bothered you too, right?

(09-25-2018 05:04 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  For all the talent that exists in this program there are still a couple of pretty big weaknesses particularly on the defensive side of the ball (interior DL and depth in secondary, and overall experience). Now I have said before I don't think it should be a matador unit like we saw early on and I certainly still think this is a team that should challenge for the MACC.

If the staff can get to 8 or even 7 wins though then we may have something.. Barring unusual attrition or injuries I'm not seeing where those weaknesses will exist next year. Maybe interior DL.. but if that's still the case, sorry, yeajr 3 that's entirely on the current staff IMO given they didn't exactly have an entire roster to rebuild. Senior QB, great weapons in the backfield and out wide, and I believe there's good talent on this defense that will have some seasoning.

IMO with the way the 2019 roster is shaping up this should be a favorite for the MAC and should be able to take down a P5 given the right matchup (say, Cuse minus Dungey?) Sorry to look ahead too much.

We have had more than good enough talent to have won the MAC last year, and to win it this year. I doubt Lester will ever have a more talented group than he did last season, and those kids experienced winning at the highest level, and knew what it took. Lester and his staff need to learn from third own mistakes, and change in order to accomplish great things here. He might have to get better people on his staff, and have the intestinal fortitude to can a buddy or two. Does anyone think the current defensive staff is as good as the staff we had from 2013-16?

I will love it if we win 9 games this season, and will eat all the crow anyone wishes to feed me if we do. But if and when we look terrible I will not be shy about saying so, nor will I apologise for it.

(09-25-2018 06:19 PM)brovol Wrote:  I doubt Lester will ever have a more talented group than he did last season.

You've said that before...... What makes you think that?

Have you been looking at the recruiting classes? Lester has so far outpaced what PJ did at this point, talent is going to continue to increase assuming we keep recruiting like we have been.

I would argue that we have a more talented team this year than we did last year. Especially if you count the players that could actually play and weren't injured.

Since 1988 - 31 completed seasons - our Broncos have finished with more than 7 wins in 8 seasons. 26% of the time. Three of those years were recently under PJ. One of them was in '97 with Lester as the QB. Two under Cubit. Two under Darnell and one under Molde.

6-2 the rest of the year is certainly possible. 5-3 with a bowl win also gets us to 8 wins. History says we have a 26% chance.

Does this team and this coaching staff have what it takes? Time will tell. I certainly hope so but would not put money on it.

(09-26-2018 08:56 AM)DrDavis Wrote:  Since 1988 - 31 completed seasons - our Broncos have finished with more than 7 wins in 8 seasons. 26% of the time. Three of those years were recently under PJ. One of them was in '97 with Lester as the QB. Two under Cubit. Two under Darnell and one under Molde.

6-2 the rest of the year is certainly possible. 5-3 with a bowl win also gets us to 8 wins. History says we have a 26% chance.

Does this team and this coaching staff have what it takes? Time will tell. I certainly hope so but would not put money on it.

If you're going back to 88 you shouldn't count 2015 as 8 wins, it should be 7. Have to compare apples to apples. Most of those teams from 88 until the mid 00s never made a bowl game and didn't have the opportunity to turn the 7-5 to an 8-5 like we did in 2015. FWIW we had 8 other teams from 88 until now that had 7 wins but didn't make a bowl.

(09-26-2018 08:24 AM)Bronc33 Wrote:  

(09-25-2018 06:19 PM)brovol Wrote:  I doubt Lester will ever have a more talented group than he did last season.

You've said that before...... What makes you think that?

Have you been looking at the recruiting classes? Lester has so far outpaced what PJ did at this point, talent is going to continue to increase assuming we keep recruiting like we have been.

I would argue that we have a more talented team this year than we did last year. Especially if you count the players that could actually play and weren't injured.

Just look at the players we lost to graduation this past off-season. Consider also that the players Lester inherited last year all had the experience of tremendous success. QB and receivers not so much, but keep in mind Lester did have Flacko when he started, but lost him. The team Lester had last year was one of the most talented in MAC history. And if you dont believe me, ask Lester himself. He said so when he got here.

And BTW, I disagree that Lester has outpaced Fleck in recruiting. I think Lester has done great with the recruiting, but by that I am referring to the one class he signed last year, as his first class consisted much of Fleck recruits left after he swiped players. But Flecks classes at WMU were higher ranked than Lester's, and were generally tops in the MAC, and among the very top in G5. Lester came close last year, but he hasn't finished #1 in the MAC. 247 had us ranked #3 in the MAC, behind Toledo and BGU for 2017 class. The 2018 class was #2 in the MAC, and currently we are #3 for the 2019 class. Flecks classes were 2014 #1, 2015 #2, but with the top player average score, and 2016 #1. Say what you want about Fleck, but the guy could recruit here. The guy is a salesman, and he used that skill to find funding for improvements to facilities, which also helped sell the program, and which Lester is benefiting from himself on the recruiting trails.

Lester inherited a team consisting of players from the top three recruiting classes in school history, all of whom experienced great success before he came, along with the addition of a transfer D-lineman who was a beast in the trenches last year. Sure, some of the players didn't end up playing. That happens with every class at every school. But a lot of them played, and indeed were good enough to get NFL opportunities. To diminish the quality of players who actually played last season for Lester is unfair and inaccurate. last years bunch was tremendously talented by MAC standards.

(09-26-2018 08:56 AM)DrDavis Wrote:  Since 1988 - 31 completed seasons - our Broncos have finished with more than 7 wins in 8 seasons. 26% of the time. Three of those years were recently under PJ. One of them was in '97 with Lester as the QB. Two under Cubit. Two under Darnell and one under Molde.

6-2 the rest of the year is certainly possible. 5-3 with a bowl win also gets us to 8 wins. History says we have a 26% chance.

Does this team and this coaching staff have what it takes? Time will tell. I certainly hope so but would not put money on it.

We were the Miami Dolphins of college football, but hopefully no longer!

Quote:Posted by Bronc33 - Today 09:02 AM


(Today 08:56 AM)DrDavis Wrote:
Since 1988 - 31 completed seasons - our Broncos have finished with more than 7 wins in 8 seasons. 26% of the time. Three of those years were recently under PJ. One of them was in '97 with Lester as the QB. Two under Cubit. Two under Darnell and one under Molde.

6-2 the rest of the year is certainly possible. 5-3 with a bowl win also gets us to 8 wins. History says we have a 26% chance.

Does this team and this coaching staff have what it takes? Time will tell. I certainly hope so but would not put money on it.
If you're going back to 88 you shouldn't count 2015 as 8 wins, it should be 7. Have to compare apples to apples. Most of those teams from 88 until the mid 00s never made a bowl game and didn't have the opportunity to turn the 7-5 to an 8-5 like we did in 2015. FWIW we had 8 other teams from 88 until now that had 7 wins but didn't make a bowl.


8 wins is the minimum this year. I think we win 9-10 including the bowl.

Bronc33 - So, are you sticking with your minimum of 8 wins with 9-10 including a bowl game? Here is your time to reconfirm or modify your prediction. Put it on the table.

7 wins

I think we go 3-5 from here on out..we haven't beaten any team with a pulse yet. Until we do, my expectations are low.

(09-26-2018 09:45 AM)DrDavis Wrote:  Bronc33 - So, are you sticking with your minimum of 8 wins with 9-10 including a bowl game?

Oh definitely! Anything less than 8 and I'll be disappointed.

(09-26-2018 09:28 AM)brovol Wrote:  And BTW, I disagree that Lester has outpaced Fleck in recruiting. I think Lester has done great with the recruiting, but by that I am referring to the one class he signed last year, as his first class consisted much of Fleck recruits left after he swiped players. But Flecks classes at WMU were higher ranked than Lester's, and were generally tops in the MAC, and among the very top in G5. Lester came close last year, but he hasn't finished #1 in the MAC. 247 had us ranked #3 in the MAC, behind Toledo and BGU for 2017 class. The 2018 class was #2 in the MAC, and currently we are #3 for the 2019 class. Flecks classes were 2014 #1, 2015 #2, but with the top player average score, and 2016 #1. Say what you want about Fleck, but the guy could recruit here. The guy is a salesman, and he used that skill to find funding for improvements to facilities, which also helped sell the program, and which Lester is benefiting from himself on the recruiting trails.

I agree that you shouldn't use 2017 as Lester had about 2 weeks to put together his class, but he did admirably considering the time crunch he had.

2018 was the best class in the history of the school by every metric. It beat out every single class the Fleck had in total points and average player rating, and was the highest average player rating in the MAC (only pointing this out because you did with one of PJs classes). Toledo also had an excellent class, and by total points we came out 2nd. But those 2 classes were the highest ever in the MAC.

WMU's highest ever recruiting classes rank as such (per 24/7):

2018 Total Points - 163.69, Average - 82.88 (Average is the highest in the history of the MAC)
2016 Total Points - 160.72, Average - 81.68
2014 Total Points - 153.42, Average - 80.51
2015 Total Points - 147.48, Average - 80.51

You are right the Fleck could recruit here, just not as well as Lester has (so far).

2016 Recruiting Class - 26 guys
Tristian Pipp Greendale,WI (Greendale) LB 6'1/210 ***
Kailen Guillory Indianapolis, IN (Ben Davis) DE 6'4/240 ***
Matt Little Evanston,IL (Evanston Township) QB 6'4/225 ***
Matt Falcon Southfield,MI (Southfield) RB 6'1/215 ***
Stefan Claiborne Clinton Township,MI (Chippewa ) DB 6'1/170 ***
Dontre Boyd Detroit,MI (Martin Luther King) DB 5'10/160 ***
Eric Rogers Warren,MI (De La Salle) LB 6'1/225 ***
Spencer Kanz Luxemburg,WI (Luxemburg-Casco) OL 6'6/275 ***
Kalebb Perry Mt. Pleasant,MI (Mt. Pleasant Senior) WR 6'2/180 ***
Emanuel Jackson Novi,MI (Novi) RB 6'0/175 ***
Ron George Pittsburgh,PA (Central Catholic) LB 6'2/200 ***
D'Wayne Eskridge Bluffton,IN (Bluffton) RB 5'10/190 ***
Brett Borske Naperville,IL (Neuqua Valley) TE 6'6/230 ***
Hunter Broersma Muskegon,MI (Mona Shores) WR 6'1/190 ***
Darece Roberson Muskegon,MI (Mona Shores) WR 5'9/160 **
Brad Tanner Romeo,MI (Romeo) WR 6'2/185 **
Mitchell Heimbuch Romeo,MI (Romeo) ATH 6'3/220 **
Jaylon Moore Detroit,MI (Voyageur Consortium) OL 6'5/260 **
Butch Hampton Piedmont,OK (Piedmont) K 6'1/170 **
Jared Culp New Carlisle,IN (New Prairie) LB 6'3/205 **
Rodney Graves Detroit,MI (Cody) WR 6'2/185 **
Mike Caliendo Brookfield,WI (Brookfield) OL 6'4/275 **
Jaylen Brown Houston,TX (Mayde Creek) DB 6'2/205 **
Mark Brooks Portland,MI (Portland) OL 6'7/260 ** Yes
Jordan Asbury Warren,MI (De La Salle) OL 6'4/280 ** Yes
Ken Aguirre Joliet,IL (Joliet Catholic) DT 6'2/290 **

Now who is left - 13 guys
Kailen Guillory Indianapolis, IN (Ben Davis) DE 6'4/240 ***
Stefan Claiborne Clinton Township,MI (Chippewa ) DB 6'1/170 ***
Spencer Kanz Luxemburg,WI (Luxemburg-Casco) OL 6'6/275 ***
Emanuel Jackson Novi,MI (Novi) RB 6'0/175 ***
D'Wayne Eskridge Bluffton,IN (Bluffton) RB 5'10/190 ***
Brett Borske Naperville,IL (Neuqua Valley) TE 6'6/230 ***
Hunter Broersma Muskegon,MI (Mona Shores) WR 6'1/190 ***
Mitchell Heimbuch Romeo,MI (Romeo) ATH 6'3/220 **
Jaylon Moore Detroit,MI (Voyageur Consortium) OL 6'5/260 **
Mike Caliendo Brookfield,WI (Brookfield) OL 6'4/275 **
Mark Brooks Portland,MI (Portland) OL 6'7/260 **
Jordan Asbury Warren,MI (De La Salle) OL 6'4/280 **
Ken Aguirre Joliet,IL (Joliet Catholic) DT 6'2/290 **

This class certainly is not having the impact we all hoped it would have when signed.