andybible1995
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RE: Alternate History and Future College Sports Realignment Scenarios
(05-08-2022 04:29 PM)andybible1995 Wrote: (05-07-2022 09:06 PM)BePcr07 Wrote: (05-07-2022 11:45 AM)andybible1995 Wrote: (08-04-2017 04:27 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: While I have nothing against the AAC, its formation/continuation did cause a cascade of realignment that resulted in an almost complete membership turnover of CUSA and the Sun Belt. Could the creation of the AAC have been averted? Perhaps the announced exodus of WVU, Pitt, and Syracuse is somehow delayed by about a year, by which point Rutgers and Louisville would have secured future homes in the Big Ten and ACC, respectively. By then you'd have at least 75% of the 16 members potentially in favor of dissolving the conference, assuming at least 7 of the 8 Catholic non-football schools are fine with starting up a new "Big East" as in our timeline. Only UConn, Cincy, USF, and possibly ND would be opposed. This could prevent financial penalties for the departing schools, though the legal details are beyond me, and I'm sure some hush money is exchanged in any case. In theory, UConn, Cincy, and USF could still start up a new conference, but I think it would have been a lot harder to do so. Maybe instead they join CUSA or go football independent. Notre Dame likely half-commits to the ACC as in our timeline.
Alternately, perhaps the restocking Big 12 is in a more expansive mood, taking on Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to WVU. Pitt and Syracuse are still bound for the ACC, and Rutgers for the Big Ten. With Louisville taken, the ACC probably taps UConn to replace outgoing Maryland. This leaves USF as the only football member of the Big East. The non-football schools vote to drop football from the conference. USF football is picked up by CUSA. Notre Dame makes the same deal with the ACC as it did in our timeline.
In either scenario, CUSA doesn't lose any members and potentially gains at least one Big East survivor. This means no need to prey on the Sun Belt, which in turn has less need to draw additional members from FCS. The WAC is also given a reprieve, but I still think they'll end up dropping football due to having too few members.
Assuming the latter of the two scenarios above takes place, here's how the FBS might look by 2018.
ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Connecticut, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
NFB: Notre Dame
Big 12
North: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Pac-12
North: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Utah
SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
FBS Independent
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Louisiana Tech* (WAC), New Mexico State* (WAC), Notre Dame* (ACC), Texas State* (WAC)
CUSA
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Memphis, South Florida* (Big East), Southern Miss, UAB
West: Houston, Navy* (Patriot), Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP
MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan
MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii* (Big West), Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV
Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, North Texas, UTSA* (WAC)
NFB: Little Rock
* = football only (primary conference)
Any thoughts?
I use this scenario a lot when I play NCAA Football 14. I think it's the most realistic lineup that would exist today should the AAC had not come to fruition. However, there's a few changes to this that I would make.
C-USA would add USF as a full member, and they may have chosen LA Tech over Navy as a full member as well. Texas State would be added as a full member over UTSA since the Sunbelt added them in reality when the WAC collapsed. They also might have been more strict on their full membership and UALR might have been forced to leave either for the Southland or the OVC.
I'm not sure what happens to UTSA. Either they go the independent route in the FBS and stay in the WAC with NMSU, or they drop back down to the Southland.
It would also be interesting to see what happens with this lineup should Texas and Oklahoma still move to the SEC. Who would the Big 12 add as their replacements?
I think Houston and Central Florida still get in the XII. CUSA would sit at 12.
XII
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, TCU, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech
I figured as much. The Big 12 would add two teams from a combination of Houston, Memphis, SMU, UCF, and USF. Houston and UCF would be the two teams added from that combination as they would be the strongest candidates from this group of 5 teams.
Alternatively, the Big 12 could go with this division lineup:
North: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
I wanted to add this as well. Would USC and UCLA still leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten in this universe? If so, would the Pac-12 be able to set their differences aside and added BYU to the fold? Would they be able to add another member to the fold, say San Diego State? Or, would they be the only Power 5 conference that operates with less than 12 members?
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2022 09:58 AM by andybible1995.)
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