(11-13-2016 02:21 PM)Usajags Wrote: I'm assuming someone still believes we will beat Presbyterian and NMSU and there won't be 80 bowl eligible teams.
Assumption one, we beat Presbyterian at home. USA isn't as bad as you think they are, and Presbyterian is terrible. Much worse than Nicholls. Presbyterian owns a win over a (lower scholarship) Campbell team and a terrible Monmouth team at home. They also have a blowout loss to a middling Division II team. They have a horrible time scoring points. In most of their games, they've scored less than 7 points. We should beat Presbyterian. Losing to Presbyterian would be the same level of an upset as Nicholls beating Georgia.
Assumption two, we beat NMSU at home. NMSU is a far better team than Presbyterian. But they are literally the worst team on defense on the road in FBS. We will be the easiest road team they will face, but we should be favored heavily. NMSU also has nothing to play for while USA likely will be in a do or die game for their bowl lives on Senior Day at home. We blew it last year (barely) vs App, but NMSU isn't as good as App. We could lose, but we should be favored.
Assumption three. less than 79 teams qualify conventionally. Army is also a likely 6-6 qualifier with 2 FCS losses. Army would be picked ahead of USA. So the real number is 79 or less qualifying conventionally. This is the weakest assumption at this point. I have 77 teams qualifying conventionally. Here are the teams already not eliminated that I see NOT making it. ULL, ULM, Ga Southern, one of (TCU/Tech), one of (USM/UNT), one of (UTSA/Charlotte), SMU, Cincy, Duke, Syracuse, BC, Notre Dame, two from (Ole Miss/Miss St/Vandy), Cal, UCLA, UNLV, two from (Ball St/CMU/Akron/MiamiOH). This is reasonably shaky, but unless three of these get in, USA would be a must take at 6-6.
