Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

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(10-24-2016 08:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

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This info is from August. While it is interesting a lot has happened politically since August so unless there is a more current version of the same data I don't think they are numbers are terribly relevant.

(10-24-2016 08:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

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AA vote isn't down 25% compared to 2012. Democrats voting absentee (mail in and in person after three days is nearly double that of Republicans and Unaffiliated combined. 217k to 233k

(10-24-2016 08:23 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

This info is from August. While it is interesting a lot has happened politically since August so unless there is a more current version of the same data I don't think they are numbers are terribly relevant.

You have anything more recent? You think a lot of Hillary voters have switched to unaffiliated since then? I doubt it.

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(10-24-2016 08:25 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:23 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

This info is from August. While it is interesting a lot has happened politically since August so unless there is a more current version of the same data I don't think they are numbers are terribly relevant.

You have anything more recent? You think a lot of Hillary voters have switched to unaffiliated since then? I doubt it.

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The big poll ends in two weeks. There has been a lot of fodder and mud hoisted at and from both sides. It is really hard to predict how that might affect unaffiliated voters.

(10-24-2016 08:25 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:23 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

This info is from August. While it is interesting a lot has happened politically since August so unless there is a more current version of the same data I don't think they are numbers are terribly relevant.

You have anything more recent? You think a lot of Hillary voters have switched to unaffiliated since then? I doubt it.

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oldnorthstatepolitics.com has plenty of info about the early voting.

Also, always take Civitas polling with a grain of salt. This is part of the Art Pope machine which is very agenda driven.

(10-24-2016 08:41 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:25 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:23 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 08:00 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Much talk about the 'unaffiliated voter' - note: Most are Trump voters, he has a 10 point lead over Hillary in many catagories, and 45% had made their minds by August. Most appear to be a form of 'broken glass' Republicans ...

Link to Poll. https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/upl...liated.pdf

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

Hillary has to be wetting her depends. Or piss bag.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

This info is from August. While it is interesting a lot has happened politically since August so unless there is a more current version of the same data I don't think they are numbers are terribly relevant.

You have anything more recent? You think a lot of Hillary voters have switched to unaffiliated since then? I doubt it.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

oldnorthstatepolitics.com has plenty of info about the early voting.

Also, always take Civitas polling with a grain of salt. This is part of the Art Pope machine which is very agenda driven.

Should I wait for an NBC poll?

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

Lol

Unaffiliated voting has skyrocketed since early voting began. Both Dem and GOP early voting numbers are down. How these unaffiliated voters are swinging is the big question. I have my hunch but no way to know for certain

While NC remains a concern, especially with the Monmouth Polls out today.....

Civitas is a partisan operator. IIRC, they're pretty much Art Pope's pocket pollsters.

Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

It would be interesting to see a gender/racial/urban, rural background of unaffiliated, democrat, and GOP registration. You could the use trends that have developed so far to get a feel for how those voters are breaking

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

(10-24-2016 11:33 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

Tom, wake up. Most Americans can't stand Hillary. There is Zero love for Her. The party....Maybe but NOT Hillary. Even if She wins She already has the lowest ratings ever for a POTUS. It will be a very Ugly 4 years if She lasts that long without getting impeached like Her husband. What a Team !

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:33 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

Nevada will go Trump. All the casino workers they bus around to vote Democrat know whose name is own those towers. It won't be within 5 points.

(10-24-2016 11:05 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

It would be interesting to see a gender/racial/urban, rural background of unaffiliated, democrat, and GOP registration. You could the use trends that have developed so far to get a feel for how those voters are breaking

Well, early voting in general:

Unaffiliate vote +30% in NC so far - 85% white, 50% male/50% female; AA vote is ~25% below 2012 as well. Ds running -10% in early voting. Rs -5%.

So the answer is unaffiliated is disproportionately white and male.

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:33 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

I gotta disagree with ya Tom. Some of those at Trump ralleys may have voted, begrudgingly, for McCain and Romney, but they would not have supported him like they have Trump. Many stayed at home as they just did not care about the 08 and 12 candidates and knew they were a lost cause. Early voting in NC is being dominated by unaffilaiteds. What is the makeup of these unaffiliateds? African American vote is down which is unsuprising and not good news for HRC

People keep thinking these Trump supporters are dyed in the wool GOPers. They have not been paying much attention.