(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

What if the unaffiliated voter lived on the western outskirts of Wallace?

Tom, my wife (female) has a Masters degree... she doesn't go to church, and lived in Winston-Salem...(city of 200,000 with 3 colleges) and we mailed our absentee ballots for Trump 3 days ago. I think your generalizations are wrong, and woefully ignorant.

(10-25-2016 11:59 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Tom, my wife (female) has a Masters degree... she doesn't go to church, and lived in Winston-Salem...(city of 200,000 with 3 colleges) and we mailed our absentee ballots for Trump 3 days ago. I think your generalizations are wrong, and woefully ignorant.

I'm not saying that DJT will get NONE of the educated, non-evangelical, white, female vote. Never said that. And lets face facts...you're really, really, really conservative (at least in your presence in here). While its possible your wife was a swing voter, its not likely. I know people from Harvard voting for DJT. But its not the most likely outcome for such a person.

But I should have added....SINGLE women into that category.

I have a Daughter that's single, She won't vote for either of them. I work with several single Women, They are about evenly split on the voting agenda. Not all Single Women are on board with the Liberal DNC agenda of abortion on demand either. Not all single women are worried about LGBT issues as well as Environmental issues. Everyone is different and see things differently . The DNC tries to force Their agendas down peoples throats and they have those that are willing to submit to Them. That's fine for Them but not for others.

(10-25-2016 12:20 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  I have a Daughter that's single, She won't vote for either of them. I work with several single Women, They are about evenly split on the voting agenda. Not all Single Women are on board with the Liberal DNC agenda of abortion on demand either. Not all single women are worried about LGBT issues as well as Environmental issues. Everyone is different and see things differently . The DNC tries to force Their agendas down peoples throats and they have those that are willing to submit to Them. That's fine for Them but not for others.

Yes, there will be some percentage of single, college aged, white, non-religious, females voting for Trump.

My guess is that if she's a young voter that wants abortion illegal, doesn't support some environmental laws, doesn't care about GOP attempts to marginalize LGBT persons, and is completely hostile towards the word, liberal, then she might not be really a swing voter in this election.

And where do your coworkers live? If its suburban Louisville, then that's not going to be a surprise.

(10-24-2016 11:05 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

It would be interesting to see a gender/racial/urban, rural background of unaffiliated, democrat, and GOP registration. You could the use trends that have developed so far to get a feel for how those voters are breaking

So far, in person early voting

53 % urban, (54% Democrats, 25 % Unaffiliated, 21% Republican)
21 % suburban (40 % Democrats, 25 % unaffiliated, 35% Republican)
26 % rural (49% Democrats, 22 % Unaffiliated, 29% Republican)

57 % are not native North Carolinians

56 % are female (49 % are Democrats, 28% are Republicans, 22% are unaffiliated)

African American voting is running between 24-36% of the overall vote each day.

(10-25-2016 11:59 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Tom, my wife (female) has a Masters degree... she doesn't go to church, and lived in Winston-Salem...(city of 200,000 with 3 colleges) and we mailed our absentee ballots for Trump 3 days ago. I think your generalizations are wrong, and woefully ignorant.

It's amazing that when people start to dislike generalizations.

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

I agree and disagree with you on this one tom.

I've been saying many times "the size of a rally doesn't matter", every time I saw someone post about how many people attended these rallies.

That being said, I do disagree with you on the fact that these aren't swing voters. I look back to McCain/Palin ticket in particular. The reason that McCain did get such large rallies was that he added Palin (considered an outsider to the ticket). Look at McCain's rallies before she was added to the ticket..the numbers were VERY lackluster.

But the VP choice, rarely if ever changes a voting stance. So those people who came out to see Palin at the rallies were likely not going to vote for McCain anyway.

Romney on the other hand was a total cluster**** on the voters, because all estimates say that if the rally support numbers had gone to vote, Romney would have taken 2012 and we wouldn't even be talking about Trump this year.

In this case, it's the top of the ticket they're going to come see. So I do expect the numbers to go in Trump's favor for who does show up at the polls.

Will it be enough to say change the numbers itself on election day? That's the ultimate question.

(10-25-2016 10:41 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:33 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 09:03 PM)Claw Wrote:  Why in the world would unaffiliated voters show up for Clinton?

It is obvious they will break for Trump.

Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

I gotta disagree with ya Tom. Some of those at Trump ralleys may have voted, begrudgingly, for McCain and Romney, but they would not have supported him like they have Trump. Many stayed at home as they just did not care about the 08 and 12 candidates and knew they were a lost cause. Early voting in NC is being dominated by unaffilaiteds. What is the makeup of these unaffiliateds? African American vote is down which is unsuprising and not good news for HRC

Not really. 47% of the early vote as of today is from registered Democrats. 24% of it is registered unaffiliated.

(10-26-2016 04:46 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 10:41 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:33 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:01 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Actually it isn't obvious. Or even that likely. Most unaffiliated voters actually lean towards one party or another. In a swing state like NC, its just as likely that they split pretty much down the middle. Or along cultural/ethnic lines.

If the unaffiliated voter is a white non-college degreed male living in Gastonia or Lumberton...then sure, he's probably breaking for DJT. If that unaffiliated voter is female, has a college degree, doesn't go to church more than once a month, lives in Asheville, CLT, RDU, or Greensboro...then she's probably breaking for HRC.

That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

I gotta disagree with ya Tom. Some of those at Trump ralleys may have voted, begrudgingly, for McCain and Romney, but they would not have supported him like they have Trump. Many stayed at home as they just did not care about the 08 and 12 candidates and knew they were a lost cause. Early voting in NC is being dominated by unaffilaiteds. What is the makeup of these unaffiliateds? African American vote is down which is unsuprising and not good news for HRC

Not really. 47% of the early vote as of today is from registered Democrats. 24% of it is registered unaffiliated.

Fair enough. I should have said early voting is being dominated by the double digit increase in unaffiliated voters while Dem and GOP voting have both declined from the previous cycle by a notable margin

(10-26-2016 09:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-26-2016 04:46 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 10:41 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-24-2016 11:33 PM)Claw Wrote:  That sounds good, but when one candidate is drawing crowds 100 times larger than the other, it isn't hard to predict how the unaffiliated are swinging.

The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

I gotta disagree with ya Tom. Some of those at Trump ralleys may have voted, begrudgingly, for McCain and Romney, but they would not have supported him like they have Trump. Many stayed at home as they just did not care about the 08 and 12 candidates and knew they were a lost cause. Early voting in NC is being dominated by unaffilaiteds. What is the makeup of these unaffiliateds? African American vote is down which is unsuprising and not good news for HRC

Not really. 47% of the early vote as of today is from registered Democrats. 24% of it is registered unaffiliated.

Fair enough. I should have said early voting is being dominated by the double digit increase in unaffiliated voters while Dem and GOP voting have both declined from the previous cycle by a notable margin

Unaffiliated voters are significant but I wouldn't use the term dominate to describe it. Twice as many Democrats have voted than unaffiliated.

(10-27-2016 05:53 AM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(10-26-2016 09:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-26-2016 04:46 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 10:41 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-25-2016 12:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The problem DJT has is that those crowds aren't swing voters, for the most part. These are the same people who showed up in 2008 for McCain, in 2012 for Romney and McCrory. These are the kind of people who listen to AM radio and read Breitbart.

There's a difference between unaffiliated voters and SWING voters. The people at a DJT rally in North Carolina haven't been swing voters in a long time.

I have no desire to attend a HRC rally. I went to one last year and it was insanely boring. Doesn't mean that I'm not voting for her (I actually already have). DJT's rallies, for his supporters, are much more entertaining. All red meat. All geared towards his base.

With all this noise in here about the USC Poll and rally size, you guys missed two polls today that were better news for your side. The Monmouth Poll in North Carolina and the Survey USA Poll in Duluth's CD in Minnesota. Unfortunately for your side, there were two awful polls out of Nevada today today.

I gotta disagree with ya Tom. Some of those at Trump ralleys may have voted, begrudgingly, for McCain and Romney, but they would not have supported him like they have Trump. Many stayed at home as they just did not care about the 08 and 12 candidates and knew they were a lost cause. Early voting in NC is being dominated by unaffilaiteds. What is the makeup of these unaffiliateds? African American vote is down which is unsuprising and not good news for HRC

Not really. 47% of the early vote as of today is from registered Democrats. 24% of it is registered unaffiliated.

Fair enough. I should have said early voting is being dominated by the double digit increase in unaffiliated voters while Dem and GOP voting have both declined from the previous cycle by a notable margin

Unaffiliated voters are significant but I wouldn't use the term dominate to describe it. Twice as many Democrats have voted than unaffiliated.

True but they did in 2012 too and howd that turn out. % wide dems and GOP early voting is down while unaffiliated voting is way up. If unaffiliated voters are disproportionately while and male, which is what I believe statistics show than the early vote is a very good thing for Trump compared to 2012