(06-10-2016 07:37 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: JRSec,
In your "expansion by the numbers 2015" you posted revenue and attendance numbers for SEC and expansion candidates. You pointed to Texas, OK, FSU and ND as schools that help us improve.
Since these are two of the criteria you mentioned, what would you say would be SEC-like numbers or minimum needing for entry into SEC, especially if we need to go to 18 or 20 and need more than OK/FSU?
Is there a weight involved? Like is revenue more important since joining the SEC and football success can improve attendance? I'm looking at schools like Virginia and especially Duke whose revenue is below SEC average but still substantial, but have middling (UVA) and bad (Duke) attendance numbers.
Using your criteria, I'm not sure a home run candidate exists, who can mark all four boxes in terms of great TV get, huge revenue and attendance numbers, and an academic stud. Settling for a "threw star school" won't necessarily be a bad thing.
You use the mean of each category. For instance if the mean on attendance last year was 78,000 you look for schools in that category that meet or exceed that mean.
If the mean athletic department revenue was 107 million (and it was close to that) then you look for schools that if they had had an SEC share of TV revenue last year instead of that of the conference they were in, would have met, or exceeded that mean. I think the mean at the time Missouri entered for stadium capacity was around 72,000. A&M's addition has bumped that up now. Also Vandy is the literally the boat anchor in that regard. I would think the fewest we could handle in a stadium capacity would be in the 60,000 range with promises of expansion. The fourth metric is harder to find. What is the % of a national market that the school you are considering received in their televised games? What is the % of a regional market that the school you are considering received for their televised games?
So,
1. Average attendance: Priority level medium / (Travel crowd size important).
Virginia Tech & N.C. State (66,000 & 60,000) Iowa State & Oklahoma (66,000 & 75,000) Oklahoma & Iowa State actually travel better.
2. Gross revenue: Priority level high. (lesser targets must meet the mean)
Oklahoma top 7 nationally, Oklahoma State could come close to the mean. N.C. State and Virginia Tech nowhere close.
3. % of market pulled: Priority level high (Brands a big plus)
Virginia Tech decent regionally. N.C. State not. Oklahoma a big plus. Iowa State not.
4. Academic credentials: Meet or exceed the mean for lower priority targets. Be near the mean for high priority targets (brands). Virginia Tech & N.C. State a plus. Oklahoma near the mean. Oklahoma State near the mean depending upon the rating service, but meets or exceeds the mean in none of them.
Those are some examples considering a pair.
Florida State and Clemson both either at or exceeding the mean in academics. Average attendance 80,000 for Clemson above 72,000 for F.S.U. (needs to expand).
Both could be near the mean with SEC revenue. Both travel very well. Florida State has solid national numbers and Clemson is beginning to have a national recognition and are very strong regionally.
Texas and N.D. meet or exceed all expectations except for collegiality.
BTW: Kansas football attendance & following: horrid
West Virginia attendance in the 60,000 range, does not meet the mean on revenue, is nowhere near the metrics on academics, has a decent following in parts of surrounding regions, but not nationally. Doesn't offer required requisite sports.