(11-03-2014 02:43 PM)bobcat09 Wrote: Well the conferences are starting to shape up with teams punching tickets.
As of 11/3/14, 45 teams are bowl eligible (not including GaSo), 23 5-win teams and 18 4-win teams.... at this point there are realistically 86 bowl eligible teams or teams bidding for a bowl (eliminating all 3-win or fewer teams).
http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings
AAC
1, five 5-win teams
East Carolina
ACC
7, one 5-win, four 4-win teams
Florida St
BC
Duke
Clemson
Louisville
GT
Miami
Big 12
5, one 5-win, one 4-win teams
K State
TCU
Baylor
W Virginia
Oklahoma
Big 10
7, one 5-win, three 4-win teams
Michigan St
Ohio St
Maryland
Nebraska
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Independents
1, one 5-win, one 4-win teams
Notre Dame
CUSA
2, four 5-win teams
Marshall
La Tech
MAC
3, two 5-win, two 4-win teams
West Mich
N Illinois
Cent Mich
Mountain West
5, two 4-win teams
Nevada
Col St
Utah St
Boise St
Air Force
Pac-12
6, two 5-win, one 4-win
Oregon
Az State
USC
Arizona
UCLA
Utah
SEC
8, with one 5 win team, four 4-win teams
Georgia
Mizzou
Miss St
Ole Miss
Bama
Auburn
LSU
A&M
Sunbelt
1*, with four 5-win teams,
GaSo - if no others are available
This where the ESPN rankings fail because a lot of these teams with 4 and 5 wins are actually unlikely to get eligible.
Here is what I see:
AAC: All 5 win teams will reach eligibility, with Temple looking at probably needing to win at Tulane to ensure that happens.
AAC will place 6 bowl teams for 5 slots. Backups are Liberty and Independence: Assuming SEC shorts Liberty as expected, they'll go there.
ACC: NC State is pretty much set to get 6 wins. 4 win teams Pitt, UNC, VTU, and Virginia are harder to read. Pitt still plays UNC, and VT still plays Virginia. UNC also plays VT. Odds are some of those teams wont get 6 wins. I think they get 10. Depending on playoff participants, that likely leaves St Pete and Independence Open
Big 10 is a mess: Penn State looks good at 4-4 with Indiana, Illinois, and Temple still on the schedule. Rutgers at 5-4 must win at Indiana in all likelihood. Northwestern is 50/50. 3-5 with Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois still left. They must beat all three to get eligible.
Probably 10 teams. That fills their requirements with no extras (I don't see more than 1 Contract team.) If Northwestern drops one of the three I mentioned, they short Heart of Dallas for Texas State to fill.
Big 12: 5-4 Oklahoma State and 4-5 Texas are the best bets. OSU still has two sure losses on the schedule, and Texas has 2 likely losses as well Texas plays at Oklahoma State still. If OSU wins, Big 12 fills all their slots, if Texas wins both finish 5-7 and they short Liberty or Cactus. (will not fill Armed Forces backup either way)
CUSA: Team to watch is WKU. All the 5 win teams are going to be eligible provided a massive upset doesn't occur, however WKU at 3-5 still has games left against UTSA, Army, and UTEP at home. If they win all three, they hit 7 and fil all 6 bowls and the Independence backup. If WKU drops one, they leave I Bowl open. Now, this is assuming Marshall goes to the access bowl, if they don't, things get screwy.
MAC: They'll hit at least 7 teams. 8 if Ball State knocks off NIU and UMass at home. We need Ball State to lose. MAC will not have a backup available in all likelihood, so they'll have 2 extras, maybe three.
MWC: 4 in. Utah State hits 6 likely this week to make it 5. Key is SDSU. They have Idaho and San Jose left as likely wins. if our friends the Vandals pull off an upset this week, SDSU has to beat Air Force to get 6, leaving the MWC an opening. Otherwise, they fill all their slots with no extras or any to fill backups.
PAC 12: Likely to get at least 8. Key is Stanford: They are expected to beat Utah and Cal to hit 7 wins. If they beat Utah and lose to Cal, Cal gets eligible and Pac 12 has an extra. Otherwise, since Oregon likely makes the playoff, they hit all their slots with no extras
SEC: Lots of 4 win teams: Arkansas probably doesn't hit 6. Kentucky has to beat Tennessee to hit 6, otherwise they miss out, but that probably makes UT eligible anyway. South Carolina misses out if they lose to Florida. If SEC sends 20 million to access bowls as expected, they short Independence and Liberty at least
SBC: We al know our scenarios
Independents: Notre Dame and BYU are in. Navy at 4-5 is key. With Army a likely win, they must lose to Georgia SOuthern and South Alabama to miss a bowl. That one result could be the difference in Georgia Southern making a bowl or not. If they don't hit 6, they don't cover Poinsettia, which the MAC backs up.
/
Each Projected Bowl Eligible Teams Projected Record
