(08-21-2014 09:56 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 08:12 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(08-20-2014 08:22 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The false assumption of this whole thread is that 1 and only 1 G5 champ will be chosen to play in one of the 12 CFP bowl slots.

Has any undefeated G5 school finished anything less than Top 12 in the rankings? An undefeated G5 will always be in a CFP bowl.

No G5 has ever finished a regular season 13-0 before so what Marshall is attempting to do would break a lot of ground and offset the weak non-conference scheduling for this year.

If an AAC school also goes 13-0 this year then they'll probably be ranked somewhere in the Top 6 contending for a playoff bid where Marshall would be around Top 8 or 9. Marshall will be #8 or #9 not because they deserve to be ranked that high but because they won 13 regular season games.

2010 Boise State and that's off the top of my head.

Edit: it was 2009

Utah 2008 (They were in the MWC then)
TCU 2010
Hawaii 2007

Hawaii 2007 (12-0 regular season)
TCU 2010 (12-0 regular season)
Utah 2008 (12-0 regular season)

I asked for 13-0 regular seasons. Boise State did it in 2008 and finished the regular season #6 in the polls on a WAC schedule.

Nobody to date that has gone 13-0 during the regular season has finished worse than #6 in the polls. If Marshall has the fortune of going undefeated they'll be ranked at least in the Top 10.

(08-21-2014 03:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Hawaii 2007 (12-0 regular season)
TCU 2010 (12-0 regular season)
Utah 2008 (12-0 regular season)

I am thinking they did it without looking, and going by the fact that teams who play @ Hawaii can play an extra game, so they thought that Hawaii probably played an extra game the year they went undefeated, and were thinking that with Hawaii in the MWC now, that Utah and TCU probably played @ Hawaii, even though they were in the WAC then.

(08-21-2014 03:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  No G5 has ever finished a regular season 13-0 before so what Marshall is attempting to do would break a lot of ground and offset the weak non-conference scheduling for this year.

However Boise State DID finish the regular season 13-0 in 2009. They played at Hawaii, as compared to Marshall potentially winning a CCG (which in this case, I am not sure is even a better opponent). Which goes against your original statement. Granted they did finish in the top 5, which was the point you later amended it to,

(08-21-2014 03:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 09:56 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 08:12 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(08-20-2014 08:22 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The false assumption of this whole thread is that 1 and only 1 G5 champ will be chosen to play in one of the 12 CFP bowl slots.

Has any undefeated G5 school finished anything less than Top 12 in the rankings? An undefeated G5 will always be in a CFP bowl.

No G5 has ever finished a regular season 13-0 before so what Marshall is attempting to do would break a lot of ground and offset the weak non-conference scheduling for this year.

If an AAC school also goes 13-0 this year then they'll probably be ranked somewhere in the Top 6 contending for a playoff bid where Marshall would be around Top 8 or 9. Marshall will be #8 or #9 not because they deserve to be ranked that high but because they won 13 regular season games.

2010 Boise State and that's off the top of my head.

Edit: it was 2009

Utah 2008 (They were in the MWC then)
TCU 2010
Hawaii 2007

Hawaii 2007 (12-0 regular season)
TCU 2010 (12-0 regular season)
Utah 2008 (12-0 regular season)

I asked for 13-0 regular seasons. Boise State did it in 2008 and finished the regular season #6 in the polls on a WAC schedule.

Nobody to date that has gone 13-0 during the regular season has finished worse than #6 in the polls. If Marshall has the fortune of going undefeated they'll be ranked at least in the Top 10.

Kittonhead speaks truth.

And the 13th game, if they win the east, will be paired against the champ of the (projected) stronger western division. If they can get past Rice in the regular season, they might get to host senior-laden UTSA or resurgent UNT for the conference championship. One of those might wind up as top 25 contenders in their own right.

Bottom line for ANY G5 team this year (at least in the top 3 G5 conferences): run the table and you are (almost certainly) in the access bowl. If nobody goes unbeaten then that's when SoS and the "eye tests" will start to come into play.

(08-21-2014 03:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 09:56 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 08:12 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  

(08-20-2014 08:22 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The false assumption of this whole thread is that 1 and only 1 G5 champ will be chosen to play in one of the 12 CFP bowl slots.

Has any undefeated G5 school finished anything less than Top 12 in the rankings? An undefeated G5 will always be in a CFP bowl.

No G5 has ever finished a regular season 13-0 before so what Marshall is attempting to do would break a lot of ground and offset the weak non-conference scheduling for this year.

If an AAC school also goes 13-0 this year then they'll probably be ranked somewhere in the Top 6 contending for a playoff bid where Marshall would be around Top 8 or 9. Marshall will be #8 or #9 not because they deserve to be ranked that high but because they won 13 regular season games.

2010 Boise State and that's off the top of my head.

Edit: it was 2009

Utah 2008 (They were in the MWC then)
TCU 2010
Hawaii 2007

Hawaii 2007 (12-0 regular season)
TCU 2010 (12-0 regular season)
Utah 2008 (12-0 regular season)

I asked for 13-0 regular seasons. Boise State did it in 2008 and finished the regular season #6 in the polls on a WAC schedule.

Nobody to date that has gone 13-0 during the regular season has finished worse than #6 in the polls. If Marshall has the fortune of going undefeated they'll be ranked at least in the Top 10.

13-0 for the CUSA champion would mean that the champion won the championship game. Hawaii, TCU and Utah didn't play in conferences that had the championship game during those years.

Lest we forget 12-0 (regular season) UH who did not get past USM in the conference champ game in '11.

In the question as stated, I would definitely take an undefeated Marshall FOR the G5 bid over a two-loss AAC champion.

I guess I might take an undefeated Marshall over an undefeated Sunbelt champion, but given their SOS, it would be hard to take them over an undefeated champion from most of the Go5.

Undefeated Marshall over a one-loss MWC or AAC schools is tricky, I'd need to know the details of the loss. UC, UCF, ECU and Houston all have at least a shot in the American. If UC beats OSU and Miami(FL), but stumbles against one of their conference rivals, they might get a "P5 beater" halo effect. Similarly if ECU beats two out of three of South Carolina, North Carolina and VTech and runs the conference table. Or if UCF beats South Carolina after losing a nail biter to Penn State. But if its Houston, I think that a loss on their schedule would put them behind an undefeated Marshall.


Note that the question is for the automatic Go5 spot, so speculation about multiple Go5 bids to Access Bowls are beside the point ... if an undefeated MWC school took the guaranteed spots and an undefeated Marshall took an at-large spot, that's still the MWC school being picked for "the G5 bid".

(08-21-2014 02:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(08-20-2014 10:34 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(08-20-2014 08:22 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The false assumption of this whole thread is that 1 and only 1 G5 champ will be chosen to play in one of the 12 CFP bowl slots.

Has any undefeated G5 school finished anything less than Top 12 in the rankings? An undefeated G5 will always be in a CFP bowl.

No G5 has ever finished a regular season 13-0 before so what Marshall is attempting to do would break a lot of ground and offset the weak non-conference scheduling for this year.

If an AAC school also goes 13-0 this year then they'll probably be ranked somewhere in the Top 6 contending for a playoff bid where Marshall would be around Top 8 or 9. Marshall will be #8 or #9 not because they deserve to be ranked that high but because they won 13 regular season games.

Your post seems like it should make sense but your forgetting something. There is no longer a computer element to pluff up bad schedules.

You really think that the computer averages, which will still be published and cited, mysteriously no longer matter? I can almost guarantee that someone will still publish a ranking similar tot he BCS, using the same components, and that will be what the public sees. And that includes the committee. Further, since the BCS will no longer govern it, margin of victory will likely return to some of those computer rankings, changing some dynamics. And unless I misunderstood you, if anything generally the computers knocked down G5 teams due to SOS (although nearer the end of the year they prop them back up because they favor undefeated). Not sure how even if computers were out, that would hurt an undefeated Marshall.

(08-21-2014 01:13 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 11:47 AM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 11:13 AM)Underdog Wrote:  

(08-21-2014 11:09 AM)MUHERD76 Wrote:  Sucks but it is what it is.

Which team replaced Louisville on Marshall's schedule?

It was such a last minute move that we had no choice but have to go the FCS route and add Rhode Island. Otherwise we wouldnt even have had an FCS team on the schedule.

Did Marshall try to get a P5 school to drop a FCS opponent or did it try to add a better FCS school like North Dakota St? Marshall knew what was expected this season from its football program and that the very weak sos could cost it a spot in a major bowl. Marshall's only chance is to put up eye-poping scores on every opponent and hope that the AAC, MWC, and MAC champs have multiple losses.....

The problem they had is when the ND/ACC item came into play, Louisville was assigned a road game at Notre Dame. That gave UofL only five home games, as road games with Marshall and FIU were already on the books. Since Louisville likes playing FIu in Florida during the years they don't play in Florida (was used to mirror the USF games) the goal was to keep the FIU game since Miami and FSU play Louisville at home, and move the Marshall game back one year. Since the game was @ Marshall, they needed to replace Louisville with a home game. That late, an FCS opponent was likely the only option.

Wasn't great for Louisville either. Having to move the game back likely cost Louisville being able to play Cincinnati, since moving this game back meant another home game for 2015 was needed, a slot Cincinnati didn't have. So a home and home was signed with Houston, who was able to play at PJCS in 2015. Not to say that Marshall owes anyone anything, but they should be thankful that ton Jurich refuses to treat other teams like that, and did not opt to buy out of the game. I am not saying he should have (I don't like that either) but it really would have been a lot easier for him to do so, but he never wanted to do that. Many other AD's probably would have just written a check and never made the return trip (especially after Marshall won the first game at PJCS, which is when teams decide to cancel the series) so the series with Cincinnati could continue.

Thanks for the info about the Louisville & Marshall situation....

(08-19-2014 03:39 PM)goofus Wrote:  Undefeated Marshall gets in over any 1 loss G5 team. Only exception is if the 1 loss is to a top 5 team or to a P5 conference champion.

I can't tell if the above-comment is being offered as a personal opinion of which team the Selection Committee ought to choose under the given circumstances, or a prediction of which team the Committee would choose under those circumstances. If it was merely opinion, then fair enough. But if it's a prediction, then it's just absurd. Any (100% chance) champion of AAC or MWC with only one loss would be selected ahead of undefeated Marshall. Most (60-70% chance) champions of AAC or MWC with only two losses would be chosen ahead of undefeated Marshall. And a few (10-15% chance) champions of AAC or MWC with only three losses would be taken ahead of undefeated Marshall.

This is no reflection on the overall strength of Marshall's team, nor on Marshall's league (C-USA). It's just a reflection on the amazingly weak schedule Marshall plays this season.

(08-23-2014 05:47 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  This is no reflection on the overall strength of Marshall's team, nor on Marshall's league (C-USA). It's just a reflection on the amazingly weak schedule Marshall plays this season.

It is partly a reflection on C-USA ... Conference schedule alone ensures that an AAC school has a tougher schedule than the one that Marshall plays. If you have a champion from the AAC conference that has also beaten two P5 schools, even if it suffered a loss along somewhere along the way, it seems unlikely that Marshal would have a shot unless it totally obliterates a CUSA West division champion in the Championship game that has come in undefeated off a tougher schedule than Marshall's.

Given the different conference rankings and SOS, Marshall has to hope the AAC champ has at least 2 losses (or 1 really bad loss); otherwise, they have no chance of getting the Access Bowl bid.

(08-26-2014 01:23 PM)mac6115cd Wrote:  Given the different conference rankings and SOS, Marshall has to hope the AAC champ has at least 2 losses (or 1 really bad loss); otherwise, they have no chance of getting the Access Bowl bid.

It is worth pointing out, while not a G5 team last year, UCF had about the best season from a schedule/ production standpoint one could have from a G5 conference with one loss, this upcoming season. And they were 15th in both human polls and the BCS entering the bowl season. That was with a win @ Penn State, a close loss to a then top 15 South Carolina, and a conference win over a then top ten Louisville team on the road, on a schedule with no FCS schools on it. And they only finished 15th. To compare the previous year Northern Illinois finished the regular season at 16 in the human polls with no remotely close win to what UCF had or near as good a loss. They had the same number of losses as UCF, with a much worse SOS, and ended up ranked nearly the same. Every single undefeated team since 1998, regardless of conference, has finished much higher than that, with all finishing the regular season in the top 10, regardless of SOS.
Going all the way back to Boise St from 2002-2004 before anyone nationally had heard of them, to Miami (OH) and Boise St both being top 15 in 2003 with one loss, all the way back to Tulane in 1998 (from CUSA no less, albeit different membership but others may not pay tha much attention), to Marshall itself back in 1998 being ranked number 11 entering the bowl season (they did beat Clemson and Temple that year from BCS conferences, but the two combined to go 8-15).

That is quite a precedent that suggests that even with a shit schedule, Marshall if they are undefeated would be at the top of the list. And while some may think the polls don't matter because there is a committee, just remember than nearly every set of human rankings that are released each year, have near identical results. To assume that a group that gets together to discuss, will have a drastically different result than every other subset of voters, is not rational.

If Marshall goes undefeated, and is the only undefeated team, I don't think it really matters what anyone else does. Marshall will be a top ten or eleven team, and the others won't, and I think the sentiment will be to give them the nod.

Some interesting points by adcorbett.

My hunch is that Marshall will not be undefeated as of December 7. But it would be an interesting experiment to see what would happen if they are undefeated, and if the champions of AAC, MAC, MWC, and SBC are not undefeated.

If -- repeating, IF -- Marshall's schedule turns out to be as bad as most people think it is going to be, then I think Marshall will be viewed as roughly equivalent to a champion of AAC or MWC with 2 losses, and as roughly equivalent to a champion of MAC or SBC with one loss. I really believe that Any champion from AAC or MWC with just one loss will be selected ahead of undefeated-Marshall, and if SBC or MAC has an undefeated champion, then that team would also be selected ahead of undefeated-Marshall.

Where it gets tricky is if Marshall is 13-0 while (just for examples) Fresno State is 11-2, or UCF is 10-2. At that point, I hope and believe the Selection Committee would carefully scrutinize the results of the eligible teams. There's no way to project how that would turn out ahead of time.

(08-26-2014 01:43 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(08-26-2014 01:23 PM)mac6115cd Wrote:  Given the different conference rankings and SOS, Marshall has to hope the AAC champ has at least 2 losses (or 1 really bad loss); otherwise, they have no chance of getting the Access Bowl bid.

It is worth pointing out, while not a G5 team last year, UCF had about the best season from a schedule/ production standpoint one could have from a G5 conference with one loss, this past upcoming season. And they were 15th in both human polls and the BCS entering the bowl season. That was with a win @ Penn State, a close loss to a then top 15 South Carolina, and a conference win over a then top ten Louisville team on the road, on a schedule with no FCS schools on it. And they only finished 15th. To compare the previous year Northern Illinois finished the regular season at 16 in the human polls with no remotely close win to what UCF had or near as good a loss. They had the same number of losses as UCF, with a much worse SOS, and ended up ranked nearly the same. Every single undefeated team since 1998, regardless of conference, has finished much higher than that, with all finishing the regular season in the top 10, regardless of SOS.
Going all the way back to Boise St from 2002-2004 before anyone nationally had heard of them, to Miami (OH) and Boise St both being top 15 in 2003 with one loss, all the way back to Tulane in 1998 (from CUSA no less, albeit different membership but others may not pay tha much attention), to Marshall itself back in 1998 being ranked number 11 entering the bowl season (they did beat Clemson and Temple that year from BCS conferences, but the two combined to go 8-15).

That is quite a precedent that suggests that even with a shit schedule, Marshall if they are undefeated would be at the top of the list. And while some may think the polls don't matter because there is a committee, just remember than nearly every set of human rankings that are released each year, have near identical results. To assume that a group that gets together to discuss, will have a drastically different result than every other subset of voters, is not rational.

If Marshall goes undefeated, and is the only undefeated team, I don't think it really matters what anyone else does. Marshall will be a top ten or eleven team, and the others won't, and I think the sentiment will be to give them the nod.

The whole issue goes back to strength of schedule. If what you are saying has any legs, then why are the P5 leagues pushing the strength of schedule issue by only wanting to play other P5 teams?

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/college-f...api_public

Just from comments that I have read; it sounds like the football selection committee intends to the apply the same thought process that the NCAA basketball selection committee uses. The NCAA basketball selection committee frowns upon teams scheduling cupcakes; so it would stand to reason that the NCAA football selection committee would frown upon it too. Hell the NCAA basketball selection committee left SMU out of the NCAA tournament last year, because SMU supposedly played a soft OOC basketball schedule; and that was even though SMU was ranked 25th in the nation at the time of the exclusion. So if the football selection committee is anything like the basketball selection committee then an undefeated Marshall is likely to be SOL unless the AAC or MWC champions have 2 or more losses.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_...r-rankings

(08-26-2014 04:07 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  The whole issue goes back to strength of schedule. If what you are saying has any legs, then why are the P5 leagues pushing the strength of schedule issue by only wanting to play other P5 teams?

SOS is not new. In fact it used to be the single biggest component of the BCS criteria up until about 2003 or 2004 - it was 1/3 of the actual BCS formula, a major part of the computer formulas, and weighed by many voters. This is nothing new. But at the end of the day

(08-26-2014 04:07 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Just from comments that I have read; it sounds like the football selection committee intends to the apply the same thought process that the NCAA basketball selection committee uses. The NCAA basketball selection committee frowns upon teams scheduling cupcakes; so it would stand to reason that the NCAA football selection committee would frown upon it too.

By and large, NCAA seeding also mimicks the AP and coach's polls. There are exceptions and variances, but by and large, after everything else is included, it still is weighed.

The thing people forget is human polls have ALWAYS weighed SOS too. It just doesn't always matter. Undefeated almost always wins out. I mean you are talking about these undefeated teams being ranked higher than BCS teams with two losses (pre-bowl). I mean seriously in 2011 Boise St with one loss was ranked ahead of two Big Ten teams (Wisc and Mich)an SEC team, and an ACC team with two losses. In 2010 with one loss they finished ranked ahead of LSU, Virginia Tech, Mizzou, and OKSt who had two losses. In 2009 TCU finished undefeated ahead of a BCS league champion who was undefeated and ahead of a Florida team who's only loss was in the SEC CCG, with Boise also finishing ahead of EVERY two loss team. Going further back, Utah and Boise ST finished undefeated in 2008, ahead of every 2 loss BCS team granted there was a short supply that year). Hawaii is the only undefeated team to not finish in front of every 2 loss team, and that was during the season where 9 of the top 12 teams all had at least two losses. Boise St's first BCS run did feature them being undefeated and ranked behind a two 2 loss BCS conference champions, back when they had a Marshall'esque schedule, but even they finished ahead of 2 loss Auburn, ND, WVU, Va Tech, Rutgers, and ACC Champ Wake.

The point being, in the last 6 years no two loss power conference teams are finishing ahead of G5 teams who go undefeated. In most cases not even a lot of the one loss teams aren't. Also not listed in these are the numerous other G5 teams who often had much better SOS's than those early Boise, Utah, and Hawaii teams, all who finished DISTANTLY behind the undefeated teams. Because I am just pointing out how many power conference teams finished behind them.
Using this historical perspective, where is the justification for another team who has been classified in the same category (Gang of Five), to have two more losses than an undefeated Marshall, and still get the nod? When teams in a protected class do not even appear to get that luxury?

It just doesn't make sense.