(08-13-2014 07:34 AM)CatMom Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 05:31 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 06:17 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  For what it is worth, Montana State was only a 10.5 point dog @ SMU last year in the game they led in very late.

So the line is NOT unreasonable. I think there are so many questions about A-State. This is the first time we've lost a Coach, a QB, and A Defensive Coordinator all at the same time, and with the late loss of center Giddens, who knows. We are probably going to have 4 freshman linemen in the 2 deep - two on each side of the ball.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see that line bet up past 10 as high as 14 closer to game time.



stAte had Ryan Aplin when we faced UCA last in 2011, and we opened up a 17 point favorite and the line went to 20.5. UCA's QB was out and we pulled away and won 53-24.
The week before that UCA took La Tech to the wire in Ruston ( OT if I recall ) in a game in which they were 17 point dogs.

I don't think it went to OT, but we were lucky to get out of that game with a win. FCS teams beat FBS teams every year. It isn't at all unusual. FCS teams usually enter those games with something to prove while the FBS team is looking ahead. That is always a mistake. Ask Michigan.

Um, Yeah....it went into OT tied 42-42 and Tech won by 6, 48-42. A little research helps.

My bad. I should've researched it. UCA has always played extremely well against us. Former Tech assistant coach Clint Conque was UCA's head coach at the time and he brought his team into Ruston ready to play. We were very lucky to get a win that night.

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:53 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Ga Southern will not be suddenly better than last year's team simply because we are now FBS.

Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:53 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Ga Southern will not be suddenly better than last year's team simply because we are now FBS.

Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

Exactly, we've been recruiting as a D1 since 1992. It would make logical sense that we should expect ourselves to be able to comfortably beat an FCS school.

It doesn't always happen, but generally speaking, we've had access to a higher level of recruit that Montana State hasn't for the last 20 years.

GS wont experience those advantages in just their first year of FBS. And for people that point out they may be decent this year, keep in mind that of the teams they play this year, Four of those have been recruiting at the FBS level for two or three seasons or even less. Two more won a combined 3 games last year.

Of their conference games, only Troy and ULM have been established at the D1 level for at least a 5 years, and put out decent teams last season.

(08-14-2014 01:28 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:53 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Ga Southern will not be suddenly better than last year's team simply because we are now FBS.

Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

Exactly, we've been recruiting as a D1 since 1992. It would make logical sense that we should expect ourselves to be able to comfortably beat an FCS school.

It doesn't always happen, but generally speaking, we've had access to a higher level of recruit that Montana State hasn't for the last 20 years.

GS wont experience those advantages in just their first year of FBS. And for people that point out they may be decent this year, keep in mind that of the teams they play this year, Four of those have been recruiting at the FBS level for two or three seasons or even less. Two more won a combined 3 games last year.

Of their conference games, only Troy and ULM have been established at the D1 level for at least a 5 years, and put out decent teams last season.

FYI, all FCS schools that were playing in 1992 have been too! FBS and FCS are both considered D1. That always annoyed me when we were FCS.

(08-14-2014 07:36 AM)eaglemachine Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 01:28 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

Exactly, we've been recruiting as a D1 since 1992. It would make logical sense that we should expect ourselves to be able to comfortably beat an FCS school.

It doesn't always happen, but generally speaking, we've had access to a higher level of recruit that Montana State hasn't for the last 20 years.

GS wont experience those advantages in just their first year of FBS. And for people that point out they may be decent this year, keep in mind that of the teams they play this year, Four of those have been recruiting at the FBS level for two or three seasons or even less. Two more won a combined 3 games last year.

Of their conference games, only Troy and ULM have been established at the D1 level for at least a 5 years, and put out decent teams last season.

FYI, all FCS schools that were playing in 1992 have been too! FBS and FCS are both considered D1. That always annoyed me when we were FCS.

I dare say nobody here doesn't understand what he means......

(08-13-2014 08:51 AM)CatMom Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 08:45 AM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  If Montana State has lost a lot from last year, and is still ranked in the preseason polls.....we'd better be ready.

That isn't Montana State that is ranked in the poll posted here...it's MONTANA!!

Someone posted that Montana State is ranked #18 in the FCS top 25. I think that's what he was referring to.

For one game, especially at the beginning of the season the difference isn't as profound. A ball bouncing their way a couple times can keep a good FCS team in the game.

(08-14-2014 07:36 AM)eaglemachine Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 01:28 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

Exactly, we've been recruiting as a D1 since 1992. It would make logical sense that we should expect ourselves to be able to comfortably beat an FCS school.

It doesn't always happen, but generally speaking, we've had access to a higher level of recruit that Montana State hasn't for the last 20 years.

GS wont experience those advantages in just their first year of FBS. And for people that point out they may be decent this year, keep in mind that of the teams they play this year, Four of those have been recruiting at the FBS level for two or three seasons or even less. Two more won a combined 3 games last year.

Of their conference games, only Troy and ULM have been established at the D1 level for at least a 5 years, and put out decent teams last season.

FYI, all FCS schools that were playing in 1992 have been too! FBS and FCS are both considered D1. That always annoyed me when we were FCS.

In the 90's, when we first moved up, it was Division 1 and 1-AA. Hence my reference.

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:53 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Ga Southern will not be suddenly better than last year's team simply because we are now FBS.

Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

1) I said top 15 FCS teams are on par with bottom 30 FBS teams even with the scholarship disadvantage. Mont St is ~#17 in fcs and Ark St is better than a bottom 30 FBS team and at home, thus the 8 point line.

2) Ga Southern is a top 5 or better FCS program over the last 4 years. Thus, even though in 2014 we receive little benefit from being FBS (1 recruiting class, all 2014 starters are FCS signees), I doubt we will be an underdog more than 10 points in any SBC game. Now next year and the year after, being FBS will have a significant impact and I would expect us to be much better. But remember, we came in the SBC as a top 5 FCS program which is as good or better than probably the bottom 40 of FBS.

3) "Vegas doesn't lie." The 8 point line for the Ark St Mont St game is at that for a reason. If you think it is way off, throw a couple grand on it and take their money.

You also have to remember that Vegas is looking for your money. Whether a team wins or loses isn't their concern. The point spread shifts based on the amount of money being wagered. If it is extremely lopsided, then the payouts shift to even out the spread. They may not know what to put out at first, but when the money starts coming in that stAte beats the spread, the number will shift to a larger spread to even out the betting.

If I were in Vegas, I'd put money on GS to cover the spread in the NCST game. and a some for the win too (just being a homer on that bet).

(08-14-2014 08:48 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  In the 90's, when we first moved up, it was Division 1 and 1-AA. Hence my reference.

Technically no, it was 1-A and 1-AA, both were considered Division 1 by the NCAA.

(08-14-2014 08:16 AM)WhitetailWizard Wrote:  I dare say nobody here doesn't understand what he means......

Yes, and this proves how badly we all need football ASAP.

(08-14-2014 11:05 AM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:53 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Ga Southern will not be suddenly better than last year's team simply because we are now FBS.

Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

1) I said top 15 FCS teams are on par with bottom 30 FBS teams even with the scholarship disadvantage. Mont St is ~#17 in fcs and Ark St is better than a bottom 30 FBS team and at home, thus the 8 point line.

2) Ga Southern is a top 5 or better FCS program over the last 4 years. Thus, even though in 2014 we receive little benefit from being FBS (1 recruiting class, all 2014 starters are FCS signees), I doubt we will be an underdog more than 10 points in any SBC game. Now next year and the year after, being FBS will have a significant impact and I would expect us to be much better. But remember, we came in the SBC as a top 5 FCS program which is as good or better than probably the bottom 40 of FBS.

3) "Vegas doesn't lie." The 8 point line for the Ark St Mont St game is at that for a reason. If you think it is way off, throw a couple grand on it and take their money.

Amazing how much you've missed the point once again(I don't know why I'm ever surprised by you anymore).

How did any of that have anything to do with what I said?

I gave up a long time ago on FBS/FCS comparisons with you, it's not worth the time or effort, suffice to say we have different views on the matter.

But again, my contention was simply with your broken logic. The FBS label doing nothing for GS after one year has zero to do with the Arkansas State vs Montana St game, as you are comparing one program against itself from one year to the next and trying to use that as a basis of comparison for two different programs, one an established FBS program, the other an established FCS program. Do you not see the complete breakdown in logic there? They are two entirely different scenarios.

The funny thing is I wasn't even commenting on the line, I never said Arkansas State should blow them out, I simply said they should expect to be better. I know very little about Arkansas State this year and even less about Montana State. The way Arkansas State has looked the past few years, I have a hard time believing any FCS team is going to play a one possession game with the Red Wolves in Jonesboro, but I also never would have expected them to lose to Memphis last season.

I don't bet on college sports, at least not a couple of grand in a game between two schools I know very little about, especially in a season opener. To further complicate things it's FBS vs FCS, Arkansas State will and should expect to be the better team on the field and they travel to Tennessee the next week, I expect their preference will be to play as vanilla on both sides of the ball as possible. Montana State may prove to be a challenge and cause Arkansas State to dig a little deeper, or Arkansas State could play fairly vanilla and lead by two to three possessions through most the game only to see Montana State end up covering in garbage time.

Point being, I have no interest in wagering a couple hundred(let alone a couple grand) on a game like this, but I'll indulge you to the extent to tell you that my gut(no real research) tells me Arkansas State covers but doesn't blow them out. 10-17 point victory.

(08-14-2014 12:02 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 08:48 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  In the 90's, when we first moved up, it was Division 1 and 1-AA. Hence my reference.

Technically no, it was 1-A and 1-AA, both were considered Division 1 by the NCAA.

It's still a technicality, call it FBS/FCS 1A/1AA or whatever else you want, the original post was acknowledging that Arkansas State has been recruiting at a higher classification(with all the inherent advantages) for two plus decades, not to degrade Montana State. The fact that 1A and 1AA were both technically division 1 doesn't alter the fact that Arkansas State is, and has been, recruiting at a higher classification.

(08-14-2014 02:04 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:02 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 08:48 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  In the 90's, when we first moved up, it was Division 1 and 1-AA. Hence my reference.

Technically no, it was 1-A and 1-AA, both were considered Division 1 by the NCAA.

It's still a technicality, call it FBS/FCS 1A/1AA or whatever else you want, the original post was acknowledging that Arkansas State has been recruiting at a higher classification(with all the inherent advantages) for two plus decades, not to degrade Montana State. The fact that 1A and 1AA were both technically division 1 doesn't alter the fact that Arkansas State is, and has been, recruiting at a higher classification.

That is why I said technically he was wrong, keep up.

(08-14-2014 01:58 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 11:05 AM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 12:43 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  Not remotely analogous as we aren't talking about a program that just transitioned(or currently transitioning) like GS.

We're talking about one program that has been FBS for decades compared to a FCS program.

What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

1) I said top 15 FCS teams are on par with bottom 30 FBS teams even with the scholarship disadvantage. Mont St is ~#17 in fcs and Ark St is better than a bottom 30 FBS team and at home, thus the 8 point line.

2) Ga Southern is a top 5 or better FCS program over the last 4 years. Thus, even though in 2014 we receive little benefit from being FBS (1 recruiting class, all 2014 starters are FCS signees), I doubt we will be an underdog more than 10 points in any SBC game. Now next year and the year after, being FBS will have a significant impact and I would expect us to be much better. But remember, we came in the SBC as a top 5 FCS program which is as good or better than probably the bottom 40 of FBS.

3) "Vegas doesn't lie." The 8 point line for the Ark St Mont St game is at that for a reason. If you think it is way off, throw a couple grand on it and take their money.

Amazing how much you've missed the point once again(I don't know why I'm ever surprised by you anymore).

How did any of that have anything to do with what I said?

I gave up a long time ago on FBS/FCS comparisons with you, it's not worth the time or effort, suffice to say we have different views on the matter.

But again, my contention was simply with your broken logic. The FBS label doing nothing for GS after one year has zero to do with the Arkansas State vs Montana St game, as you are comparing one program against itself from one year to the next and trying to use that as a basis of comparison for two different programs, one an established FBS program, the other an established FCS program. Do you not see the complete breakdown in logic there? They are two entirely different scenarios.

The funny thing is I wasn't even commenting on the line, I never said Arkansas State should blow them out, I simply said they should expect to be better. I know very little about Arkansas State this year and even less about Montana State. The way Arkansas State has looked the past few years, I have a hard time believing any FCS team is going to play a one possession game with the Red Wolves in Jonesboro, but I also never would have expected them to lose to Memphis last season.

I don't bet on college sports, at least not a couple of grand in a game between two schools I know very little about, especially in a season opener. To further complicate things it's FBS vs FCS, Arkansas State will and should expect to be the better team on the field and they travel to Tennessee the next week, I expect their preference will be to play as vanilla on both sides of the ball as possible. Montana State may prove to be a challenge and cause Arkansas State to dig a little deeper, or Arkansas State could play fairly vanilla and lead by two to three possessions through most the game only to see Montana State end up covering in garbage time.

Point being, I have no interest in wagering a couple hundred(let alone a couple grand) on a game like this, but I'll indulge you to the extent to tell you that my gut(no real research) tells me Arkansas State covers but doesn't blow them out. 10-17 point victory.

Let me break it down and simplify it for you.

Some SBC fans are shocked the line for the Mont St vs Ark st game is only 8 and seem to think it should be in the 15 plus range. I don't think 8 is unreasonable because there isn't a significant gap between a top 15 FCS program and the bottom 30 FBS programs. To further prove this point, I am speculating that the Ga Southern vs Sun Belt team lines in 2014 will all be well under 10 points. Yes, we are FBS transitional, but other than one recruiting class we are essentially a FCS program as all of our starters were recruited when we were FCS. The only FBS benefit this year is more freshman which isn't a huge help. Thus, like the Mont St vs Ark St game, the Ga Southern lines will be close.

With that said, I hope Ark St blows them out.

(08-14-2014 05:28 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  Let me break it down and simplify it for you.

Some SBC fans are shocked the line for the Mont St vs Ark st game is only 8 and seem to think it should be in the 15 plus range. I don't think 8 is unreasonable because there isn't a significant gap between a top 15 FCS program and the bottom 30 FBS programs. To further prove this point, I am speculating that the Ga Southern vs Sun Belt team lines in 2014 will all be well under 10 points. Yes, we are FBS transitional, but other than one recruiting class we are essentially a FCS program as all of our starters were recruited when we were FCS. The only FBS benefit this year is more freshman which isn't a huge help. Thus, like the Mont St vs Ark St game, the Ga Southern lines will be close.

With that said, I hope Ark St blows them out.

I can see the connection you are drawing, but again, I was never suggesting the line was incorrect. Just pointing out your "FBS label won't make us better in one year" argument had nothing to do with the Montana St/stAte game itself.

One distinction I will make between your SBC games and the Montana St/stAte gameis that their game being a season opener, the depth disadvantage won't play as big a factor as each SBC game will for you guys as the season goes on. Montana State gets the one out of the way and then plays the rest of the way with the same scholarship numbers.

Following your logic, which I don't agree with entirely but is reasonably sound, I'd agree that there probably isn't a team on your conference slate that you'd be more than a ~10 point dog in a similar situation, but the depth disadvantagewill have a cumulative effect on your team, I'm not suggesting your first few conference games will be less than ten point spreads and by season's end you'll be three touchdown dogs, but as the season goes on some of the spreads will be different than they might have been had they been played in September.

(08-14-2014 05:28 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 01:58 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 11:05 AM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(08-14-2014 12:11 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:57 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  What has Ga Southern really gained since leaving FCS? One recruiting class and I don't see freshman making that big of an impact this year. Also, all of our projected starters were signees when we were FCS. So my point is that we are essentially a FCS program going against a FBS schedule, and I doubt we will be more than a 10 point underdog in any SBC game. So I think it is comparable to Montana St vs Ark St.

You miss the point, nothing new there though...

Your original point was that Arkansas State shouldn't expect to be better purely by virtue of being FBS and Montana State being FCS, you then gave support to your argument by pointing out that GS isn't going to be magically better this year vs last year simply by the label FBS. This is broken logic.

There are advantages to being FBS, you can recruit better players, this is not to say that 100% of FBS players are better than 100% of FCS players, but nonetheless, being FBS opens doors that never would have opened at the FCS level, you still have to sign them, but you have more opportunities for higher caliber recruits. And of course, the big one, added depth. You may not believe 2014 GS will be much better than 2013 GS, but surely you believe that 2023 GS will be better than 2013 GS.

This is the flaw in your logic, the FBS label won't make GS better in one year, but it will in the long run, and yes FBS programs should in general expect to be better than FCS programs, obviously it isn't always the case, but it is far more often than not.

So again, the FBS label isn't going to automatically make a program better in their first year of transition, but Arkansas State who's been FBS more than two decades has every reason to expect to be better than any FCS program.

1) I said top 15 FCS teams are on par with bottom 30 FBS teams even with the scholarship disadvantage. Mont St is ~#17 in fcs and Ark St is better than a bottom 30 FBS team and at home, thus the 8 point line.

2) Ga Southern is a top 5 or better FCS program over the last 4 years. Thus, even though in 2014 we receive little benefit from being FBS (1 recruiting class, all 2014 starters are FCS signees), I doubt we will be an underdog more than 10 points in any SBC game. Now next year and the year after, being FBS will have a significant impact and I would expect us to be much better. But remember, we came in the SBC as a top 5 FCS program which is as good or better than probably the bottom 40 of FBS.

3) "Vegas doesn't lie." The 8 point line for the Ark St Mont St game is at that for a reason. If you think it is way off, throw a couple grand on it and take their money.

Amazing how much you've missed the point once again(I don't know why I'm ever surprised by you anymore).

How did any of that have anything to do with what I said?

I gave up a long time ago on FBS/FCS comparisons with you, it's not worth the time or effort, suffice to say we have different views on the matter.

But again, my contention was simply with your broken logic. The FBS label doing nothing for GS after one year has zero to do with the Arkansas State vs Montana St game, as you are comparing one program against itself from one year to the next and trying to use that as a basis of comparison for two different programs, one an established FBS program, the other an established FCS program. Do you not see the complete breakdown in logic there? They are two entirely different scenarios.

The funny thing is I wasn't even commenting on the line, I never said Arkansas State should blow them out, I simply said they should expect to be better. I know very little about Arkansas State this year and even less about Montana State. The way Arkansas State has looked the past few years, I have a hard time believing any FCS team is going to play a one possession game with the Red Wolves in Jonesboro, but I also never would have expected them to lose to Memphis last season.

I don't bet on college sports, at least not a couple of grand in a game between two schools I know very little about, especially in a season opener. To further complicate things it's FBS vs FCS, Arkansas State will and should expect to be the better team on the field and they travel to Tennessee the next week, I expect their preference will be to play as vanilla on both sides of the ball as possible. Montana State may prove to be a challenge and cause Arkansas State to dig a little deeper, or Arkansas State could play fairly vanilla and lead by two to three possessions through most the game only to see Montana State end up covering in garbage time.

Point being, I have no interest in wagering a couple hundred(let alone a couple grand) on a game like this, but I'll indulge you to the extent to tell you that my gut(no real research) tells me Arkansas State covers but doesn't blow them out. 10-17 point victory.

Let me break it down and simplify it for you.

Some SBC fans are shocked the line for the Mont St vs Ark st game is only 8 and seem to think it should be in the 15 plus range. I don't think 8 is unreasonable because there isn't a significant gap between a top 15 FCS program and the bottom 30 FBS programs. To further prove this point, I am speculating that the Ga Southern vs Sun Belt team lines in 2014 will all be well under 10 points. Yes, we are FBS transitional, but other than one recruiting class we are essentially a FCS program as all of our starters were recruited when we were FCS. The only FBS benefit this year is more freshman which isn't a huge help. Thus, like the Mont St vs Ark St game, the Ga Southern lines will be close.

With that said, I hope Ark St blows them out.

I think we should be about 3 TD's better than Montana State, based on what I've read up on them.

Hence why I think the line is a bit unreasonable. Its an overseas booking site, so its not a major deal, but I would favor us by at least 10 points over every FCS Team not based in North Dakota if we were to play them.

Before anyone says anything. This is not me being cocky. This is based on what little knowledge I have of FCS, and what I know about our team. Its also taking into account that Montana State will likely be starting a True Freshman at QB.

(08-14-2014 07:05 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  I think we should be about 3 TD's better than Montana State, based on what I've read up on them.

Hence why I think the line is a bit unreasonable. Its an overseas booking site, so its not a major deal, but I would favor us by at least 10 points over every FCS Team not based in North Dakota if we were to play them.

Before anyone says anything. This is not me being cocky. This is based on what little knowledge I have of FCS, and what I know about our team. Its also taking into account that Montana State will likely be starting a True Freshman at QB.

What's the weather like there at this time of year....hot & humid?

Many years ago the Cajuns loved to bring in teams from the west coast for those Sept OOC meetings. They'd come out gangbusters but by the 3rd quarter their tongues would be hanging out.