SEC tops conference listposted: Wednesday, May 17, 2006
Iknow there's no sure way to determine the pecking order of all the I-A conferences, especially as there are always so many changes from what we expect to what actually transpires during the season. Case in point: Last season, Tennessee and Texas A&M stunk and West Virginia and Central Florida shined. Regardless, I'm sticking to my proverbial guns for this week's list: Best conferences.
My ranking system: I've projected every team in the conference as heavyweight (a top-15 type team); cruiserweights (15-25); light heavyweights (25-40); middleweights (40-75); lightweights (75-100) or flyweights (beyond 100). Heavyweights count for six points, cruiserweights get five, light heavies get four and so on. Again, this is based on my expectations for 2006, not strictly off '05. For instance, Wisconsin beat Auburn in the Capital One Bowl, 24-10, but I'm much more enthusiastic about the Tigers' prospects this season than I am the Badgers'.
1. SEC (Team Rating Average: 4.17): Four heavyweights (LSU, Auburn, Georgia and Florida), and that doesn't account for Tennessee, which I have as a cruiserweight, along with Alabama -- although I have a hard time believing the Vols still don't have the stuff of a heavyweight. (Note to my legion of Anti-Fulmer readers: That was not an invitation for you to chime in to the mailbag with your best one-liner. Honest.) Anyhow, I also bumped Arkansas up to a light heavyweight thanks to all the young talent that started to emerge late last season. Sidney Rice's presence notwithstanding, I'm not totally sold on South Carolina this season and decided against putting it as a cruiserweight.
The good: The league is loaded with a handful of tailbacks with first-round talent, led by Auburn's Kenny Irons.
The bad: The SEC still gets dogged for soft out-of-conference scheduling, but the league does have games against Michigan, Cal, USC, WV and FSU. Also, anyone who's critical of the scheduling needs to look at what the Gators have ahead of them. They play Tennessee, Auburn and Florida State on the road, Georgia in Jacksonville, and Alabama, LSU and South Carolina in Gainesville. I don't care if they also had games against Brown and Marist worked in there, that's a brutal slate.
2. Big Ten (Team Rating Average: 4.09): The resurgence of Penn State gives the league four bona fide powerhouses (with OSU, Michigan and Iowa). I think Wisconsin might take a little step back this season, and Purdue should be a little better. Michigan State (I'm giving the Spartans light heavyweight status this season primarily because Drew Stanton is so tough) might be the only program more inconsistent than NC State.
The good: Forget the 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust. This is a quarterbacks league now. The Big Ten returns five QBs among the nation's top 22 in passing efficiency: OSU's Troy Smith (fourth); MSU's Stanton (10th); Wisky's John Stocco (14th); Iowa's Drew Tate (21st) and Minnesota's Bryan Cupito (22nd). And don't forget Michigan's Chad Henne, a guy who started the '05 season touted as an eventual No. 1 pick. I'm expecting Henne to shine in '06. QBs who are that good in their first year as starters, especially as true freshmen, don't stink.
The bad: Expect even more points because the league lost a ton of stars on defense. Ron Zook and Terry Hoeppner are just beginning to wrestle with major rebuilding projects.
3. ACC (Team Rating Average: 4.00): Yes, the league cranked out way more first-rounders than any other league -- and that's emblematic of the ACC's profile right now: More potential than production. NC State had three first-rounders and won six games. FSU had four (although CB Antonio Cromartie didn't play in '05), and the Noles lost five games. The perception is that most people just don't fear the league's heavyweights (Miami, FSU and Virginia Tech) anymore, and there's some merit to that. All three are still very dangerous and, when they get motivated, could thump anyone, but all of them -- especially Miami and FSU -- have gotten pretty used to losing to average teams. Georgia Tech's blistering at the hands of the Mountain West's Utah, by four TDs in the bowl game, wasn't a great thing for the league, either.
The good: Led by Clemson's Gaines Adams, the ACC still has a lot of defenders who have NFL scouts salivating.
The bad: Maybe all the stud defenders have scared off all the big-play guys because once again, the league has very little star power on offense. The closest to established top quarterbacks are Miami's Kyle Wright and FSU's Drew Weatherford, both of whom are looking for breakout years, and the league's marquee guy is Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson, who is coming off a disastrous bowl loss in which he was completely stifled by Utah's Eric Weddle, the MWC's best defender. Maybe that's why the league's heavyweights don't seem that, well, heavy anymore.
4. Big 12 (Team Rating Average: 3.83): The Big 12 is coming off a great bowl season. Texas knocked off USC. Young OU beat a one-loss Oregon team, and Nebraska beat Michigan. All good stuff. I think OU is poised for a big bounce-back, and Texas, even without Vince Young, is still loaded. If A&M hadn't taken two steps back last season, I think you would've been able to make a case for the Big 12 as the second-best league, but the Aggies' D was a complete mess. Maybe the 4-2-5 will be the answer. I have them as a light heavyweight -- the same as Iowa State, which I hear many people are high on. I don't feel that way because the Cyclones' road schedule is nasty. I wouldn't be shocked if they went 0-for-5, losing at Texas, OU, Iowa, K-State and Colorado. At best, I think they will come out of that at 2-3.
The good: Looking for big, athletic receivers? Try this conference. The Big 12 has five supersized wideouts who could be first-day picks: Iowa State's Todd Blythe; Texas Tech's Jarrett Hicks and Joel Filani; Texas' Limas Sweed; and OU's rising star Malcolm Kelly. Also, the Mike Leach offense is coming to Baylor. That should be interesting to watch, although I still have the Bears as a lightweight.
The bad: Almost everywhere you look, you have teams breaking in new starting QBs. Most notably: Texas; plus A&M, Tech, Mizzou and CU.
5. Pac-10 (Team Rating Average: 3.80): Turbulence or not, USC still has enough All-American talent to consistently be a top-five program. I'm high on ASU and bumped the Sun Devils up to heavyweight status. It came down to either them or Cal, and I like the ASU QB situation much better. I like 'Zona too, but there are too many lightweights in the mix right now with Washington, Washington State, Oregon State and Stanford all struggling.
The biggest thing hurting the perception of the Pac-10 nationally is that the top dog, USC, always seems to be flying solo. A couple of years ago, Cal was a very good one-loss team. People out west felt as though Cal got screwed when Texas got the BCS bid over the Bears, who promptly went out and gave up a ton of points to Texas Tech and lost. A similar situation happened last season to one-loss Oregon, which lost to Oklahoma in a low-scoring game. It almost invalidates those teams the next year -- and the conference to a certain extent --because most people need to see it to believe it. The thinking is "Oh, that's just another puffed-up Pac-10 team." I'm not sure it's fair, but it is what it is. The Ducks do get another big shot to give the conference a major boost if they can beat OU at Autzen Stadium on Sept. 16.
The good: The Pac-10 teams have no qualms about playing anyone, it seems. Also, the league has a ton of talented young defensive players who played a lot last year.
The bad: The two most polished QBs in the league play for the same team (ASU). Everywhere else, except perhaps Arizona and Washington State, has pretty big questions at QB. (And I know guys such as Oregon's Dennis Dixon, USC's J.D. Booty and a handful of others are considered elite prospects, but if you haven't established yourself as a starter and won consistently, you can be considered an issue.)
6. Big East (Team Rating Average: 3.38): Thanks to the rapid rise of West Virginia and Louisville, you can't call this league a laughingstock. Those two are legit heavyweights right now. The feisty Mountaineers got everyone's attention when they slammed UGA in the Sugar Bowl.
Louisville is likely to be favored when the Cards host former Big East icon Miami in September. How ironic is that? Plus, Rutgers added some respectability, hanging with ASU in the Sun Devils' backyard in a shootout, and South Florida continues to get better.
The good: Laugh all you want, but only the Big Ten might have as good a top trio of quarterbacks as this supposed basketball conference, with
WVU's Pat White, Louisville's Brian Brohm and
Pitt's Tyler Palko all deserving praise.
The bad: Syracuse and
Pitt, two programs that had been very good in recent years, are mediocre right now. And that's actually being kind. Truth be told, at this juncture, 'Cuse can't see mediocre with a telescope.
7. MWC (Team Rating Average: 3.22): I think this is the most underrated league in the country. TCU added a lot to the conference, and my hunch is that BYU is starting to come back. If Chuck Long can awaken SD State (lightweight) and all those transfers can boost UNLV (flyweight), then those two programs should be much better.
The good: The upstart Horned Frogs (11-1 in 2005) are not only talented but young and experienced and talented. They can make a big statement for the league early when they go to Baylor and get Texas Tech in Fort Worth in September.
The bad: Two of the league's top coaches, Colorado State's Sonny Lubick and Air Force's Fisher DeBerry are getting up in age.
8. WAC (Team Rating Average: 2.89): I have Fresno as a cruiserweight, with Boise, Nevada and Hawaii as light heavies. The league's top half has reshuffled nicely, but ? the bottom of the league is downright Sun Belt-esque, though.
The good: With the recent additions of Dennis Erickson and Hal Mumme, even the bad WAC teams will be entertaining.
The bad: Boise's horrible start and Fresno's horrible finish last season torpedoed a lot of the credibility the league's top teams had built up.
9. MAC (Team Rating Average: 2.67): I gave Miami (Ohio), NIU and Toledo light heavyweight tags, but overall, it seemed like a lot of flyweights and lightweights.
The good: Northern Illinois' Garrett Wolfe is as good as it gets pound-for-pound and will have a shot to prove it when NIU opens at Ohio State. Last year, he dazzled in road games at Michigan and Northwestern by rushing for 393 yards while averaging 8 yards per rush.
The bad: The league's run of stud QBs appears to have hit a bit of a dry spell this year.
10. Conference USA (Team Rating Average: 2.50): Central Florida is a rising star, and gritty George O'Leary is a great fit there and can make this program the league's centerpiece. The departure of DeAngelo Williams drops Memphis from light heavyweight to lightweight.
The good: Old hands O'Leary and Mike Price infused the league with some big-time style points.
The bad: The league's best offensive talent, Marshall TB Ahmad Bradshaw, is coming off a rocky offseason.
11. Sun Belt (Team Rating Average: 1.38): With the smallest budgets and the toughest recruiting situations, the Sun Belt probably doesn't have one team that would be considered among the top 100 in I-A. To be fair, there is some talent in the league, it's just that there is such a dramatic drop-off in the depth at each program, compared with the other conferences, that it's virtually impossible for these guys to compete with the rest of major college football on even a semiconsistent basis.
The good: It's the most unpredictable league race in I-A college football, and North Texas RB Jamario Thomas, the 2004 rushing king, is back and healthy.
The bad: The league might be an underdog in every out-of-conference game its teams have against I-A competition. Best shot to avoid the 0-for-the-season: East Michigan at UL-Lafayette, SMU at North Texas or Army at Arkansas State.
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