With Louisville's loss last night, the following scenario could befall the Orange Bowl. Let's make these assumptions:

Alabama/Oregon play for the national title.
Ohio State and Stanford play in the Rose Bowl.
Baylor wins the Big 12 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl.
LSU gets selected for the Sugar Bowl.
Clemson wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl.

That leaves 3 slots left (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar).

One slot will be taken by the AAC champ and let's assume for now that's UCF. The other two slots will be at large. Let's assume one will go to Fresno State (due to possibly being ranked ahead of an AQ champ) the other goes to FSU.

Orange Bowl gets the first selection this year. Who do they take? Rematch with FSU or do they take UCF. UCF will help fill the stadium but it will be horrible for TV. If today's game is close between the FSU/Clem, would people want to see a rematch? Would the OB want a rematch?

One problem with your theory. Florida State is winning today and Winston takes another huge step forward towards seeing another freshman win the Heisman and for the second year in a row.


In terms of your talk about UCF. I think it will depend upon the rest of the season for UCF. UCF isn't Northern Illinois. So far this UCF team looks very impressive against strong competition. Their win against Louisville makes it a different conversation already.

I think a Clemson vs UCF match up would be a good one.

I think a Florida State vs UCF match up is a great one for everyone in the country other than the Big Three schools down in Florida. I would definitely be pulling for UCF in that one. I think that match up can easily be marketed for TV and not just for folks in Florida. It is David vs Goliath in terms of those programs.

Edit: Oh yeah, one more problem. UCLA is beating Stanford today too.

(10-19-2013 08:20 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  With Louisville's loss last night, the following scenario could befall the Orange Bowl. Let's make these assumptions:

Alabama/Oregon play for the national title.
Ohio State and Stanford play in the Rose Bowl.
Baylor wins the Big 12 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl.
LSU gets selected for the Sugar Bowl.
Clemson wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl.

That leaves 3 slots left (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar).

One slot will be taken by the AAC champ and let's assume for now that's UCF. The other two slots will be at large. Let's assume one will go to Fresno State (due to possibly being ranked ahead of an AQ champ) the other goes to FSU.

Orange Bowl gets the first selection this year. Who do they take? Rematch with FSU or do they take UCF. UCF will help fill the stadium but it will be horrible for TV. If today's game is close between the FSU/Clem, would people want to see a rematch? Would the OB want a rematch?

I wouldn't worry about this crap until the end of the season. L'Ville was bound to go down. They have a good team but they only played Rutgers up until last night with a weak schedule prior to them. Wouldn't be surprised to see them loose again either after watching that game last night. By the way I think UCF has a darn good team this year too. They have a quality win over Penn St who beat Michigan. South Carolina was happy to get out of Florida with a squeaker for a win too. As far as the other conferences with their unbeaten's and one loss teams there will be more big time defeats and bombshells as they play each other too. Like I said its too early to worry about the bowl crap yet so enjoy the season and let it play out.

The American is wide open right now. Too early to predict their champ.

(10-19-2013 09:11 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One problem with your theory. Florida State is winning today and Winston takes another huge step forward towards seeing another freshman win the Heisman and for the second year in a row.


In terms of your talk about UCF. I think it will depend upon the rest of the season for UCF. UCF isn't Northern Illinois. So far this UCF team looks very impressive against strong competition. Their win against Louisville makes it a different conversation already.

I think a Clemson vs UCF match up would be a good one.

I think a Florida State vs UCF match up is a great one for everyone in the country other than the Big Three schools down in Florida. I would definitely be pulling for UCF in that one. I think that match up can easily be marketed for TV and not just for folks in Florida. It is David vs Goliath in terms of those programs.

Edit: Oh yeah, one more problem. UCLA is beating Stanford today too.

I can see UCLA beating Stanford and FSU beating Clemson today. That wouldn't be a surprise to most of us.

So if FSU beats Clemson today, who do they lose to? An undefeated FSU may be playing for the national title.

(10-19-2013 09:23 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:11 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One problem with your theory. Florida State is winning today and Winston takes another huge step forward towards seeing another freshman win the Heisman and for the second year in a row.


In terms of your talk about UCF. I think it will depend upon the rest of the season for UCF. UCF isn't Northern Illinois. So far this UCF team looks very impressive against strong competition. Their win against Louisville makes it a different conversation already.

I think a Clemson vs UCF match up would be a good one.

I think a Florida State vs UCF match up is a great one for everyone in the country other than the Big Three schools down in Florida. I would definitely be pulling for UCF in that one. I think that match up can easily be marketed for TV and not just for folks in Florida. It is David vs Goliath in terms of those programs.

Edit: Oh yeah, one more problem. UCLA is beating Stanford today too.

I can see UCLA beating Stanford and FSU beating Clemson today. That wouldn't be a surprise to most of us.

So if FSU beats Clemson today, who do they lose to? An undefeated FSU may be playing for the national title.

Very true, FSU could possibly oust Oregon if they both end up undefeated but I think the PAC this year has the SoS to help Oregon edge out FSU if Oregon wins out. That is a true toss up but if Clemson wins over FSU in this game then don't they have the same chance? Hell, Clemson is ranked #3 right now right behind Oregon.

Oregon is only playing Washington State today. If both teams win then we could see Clemson pass up Oregon in the standings. If FSU wins, do they jump three spots to pass up Oregon? I don't think it is very likely that Ohio State loses. I think FSU will pass them up with a win for sure but do they get the votes to pass up both Ohio State and Oregon if both schools also win?

I think Clemson has the better chance. Florida State's game against Florida isn't going to mean as much as it usually does as Florida is not likely to still be ranked when that time comes.

(10-19-2013 08:20 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  With Louisville's loss last night, the following scenario could befall the Orange Bowl. Let's make these assumptions:

Alabama/Oregon play for the national title.
Ohio State and Stanford play in the Rose Bowl.
Baylor wins the Big 12 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl.
LSU gets selected for the Sugar Bowl.
Clemson wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl.

That leaves 3 slots left (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar).

One slot will be taken by the AAC champ and let's assume for now that's UCF. The other two slots will be at large. Let's assume one will go to Fresno State (due to possibly being ranked ahead of an AQ champ) the other goes to FSU.

Orange Bowl gets the first selection this year. Who do they take? Rematch with FSU or do they take UCF. UCF will help fill the stadium but it will be horrible for TV. If today's game is close between the FSU/Clem, would people want to see a rematch? Would the OB want a rematch?

Your scenario seems very unlikely, because there doesn't seem to be a good reason as to why the last slot must go to FSU. The only way that happens is if (a) Fresno and UCF are in the top 14, which is very unlikely, and (b) the PAC and SEC have 4 more teams ranked in the top 14 as well, also unlikely. That's the only way we can force the choices you want us to make.

But anyway, going with your assumptions, it's a no-brainer: The Orange takes FSU, simply because in the entire history of the BCS, no bowl has ever willingly taken a Big East (now AAC) team over any team from any other conference. FSU is a big name-brand and UCF isn't. Sure, the prospect of a rematch could be a drawback, but that will be swamped by the huge disparity in brand-name recognition between FSU and UCF.

So the Orange re-matches Clemson vs FSU, the Sugar then takes UCF, and the Fiesta is stuck with Fresno.

(10-19-2013 09:32 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:23 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:11 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One problem with your theory. Florida State is winning today and Winston takes another huge step forward towards seeing another freshman win the Heisman and for the second year in a row.


In terms of your talk about UCF. I think it will depend upon the rest of the season for UCF. UCF isn't Northern Illinois. So far this UCF team looks very impressive against strong competition. Their win against Louisville makes it a different conversation already.

I think a Clemson vs UCF match up would be a good one.

I think a Florida State vs UCF match up is a great one for everyone in the country other than the Big Three schools down in Florida. I would definitely be pulling for UCF in that one. I think that match up can easily be marketed for TV and not just for folks in Florida. It is David vs Goliath in terms of those programs.

Edit: Oh yeah, one more problem. UCLA is beating Stanford today too.

I can see UCLA beating Stanford and FSU beating Clemson today. That wouldn't be a surprise to most of us.

So if FSU beats Clemson today, who do they lose to? An undefeated FSU may be playing for the national title.

Very true, FSU could possibly oust Oregon if they both end up undefeated but I think the PAC this year has the SoS to help Oregon edge out FSU if Oregon wins out. That is a true toss up but if Clemson wins over FSU in this game then don't they have the same chance? Hell, Clemson is ranked #3 right now right behind Oregon.

Oregon is only playing Washington State today. If both teams win then we could see Clemson pass up Oregon in the standings. If FSU wins, do they jump three spots to pass up Oregon? I don't think it is very likely that Ohio State loses. I think FSU will pass them up with a win for sure but do they get the votes to pass up both Ohio State and Oregon if both schools also win?

I think Clemson has the better chance. Florida State's game against Florida isn't going to mean as much as it usually does as Florida is not likely to still be ranked when that time comes.

If FSU wins today...they still get top 10 Miami in two weeks...then at Florida which will still mean something because it's on the road..then most likely a rematch with Miami or VT in the ACCCG. Ohio State can't match that in the polls or computers. Passing Oregon would be interesting because they've been impressive. FSU may have to hope they struggle a little bit even in victory.

(10-19-2013 09:39 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:32 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:23 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:11 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One problem with your theory. Florida State is winning today and Winston takes another huge step forward towards seeing another freshman win the Heisman and for the second year in a row.


In terms of your talk about UCF. I think it will depend upon the rest of the season for UCF. UCF isn't Northern Illinois. So far this UCF team looks very impressive against strong competition. Their win against Louisville makes it a different conversation already.

I think a Clemson vs UCF match up would be a good one.

I think a Florida State vs UCF match up is a great one for everyone in the country other than the Big Three schools down in Florida. I would definitely be pulling for UCF in that one. I think that match up can easily be marketed for TV and not just for folks in Florida. It is David vs Goliath in terms of those programs.

Edit: Oh yeah, one more problem. UCLA is beating Stanford today too.

I can see UCLA beating Stanford and FSU beating Clemson today. That wouldn't be a surprise to most of us.

So if FSU beats Clemson today, who do they lose to? An undefeated FSU may be playing for the national title.

Very true, FSU could possibly oust Oregon if they both end up undefeated but I think the PAC this year has the SoS to help Oregon edge out FSU if Oregon wins out. That is a true toss up but if Clemson wins over FSU in this game then don't they have the same chance? Hell, Clemson is ranked #3 right now right behind Oregon.

Oregon is only playing Washington State today. If both teams win then we could see Clemson pass up Oregon in the standings. If FSU wins, do they jump three spots to pass up Oregon? I don't think it is very likely that Ohio State loses. I think FSU will pass them up with a win for sure but do they get the votes to pass up both Ohio State and Oregon if both schools also win?

I think Clemson has the better chance. Florida State's game against Florida isn't going to mean as much as it usually does as Florida is not likely to still be ranked when that time comes.

If FSU wins today...they still get top 10 Miami in two weeks...then at Florida which will still mean something because it's on the road..then most likely a rematch with Miami or VT in the ACCCG. Ohio State can't match that in the polls or computers. Passing Oregon would be interesting because they've been impressive. FSU may have to hope they struggle a little bit even in victory.

Ahh yes, that's right about Miami. Does Clemson have any more big games this year?

I'm sorry but can a BCS bowl take two teams from the same conference? Yes, I know the National Title game had that but can a normal BCS bowl do that? Also would it? The Orange would know it would get a ton of fans to come on down. Especially if it's against FSU. Two Florida schools would guarantee a sell out. The fan bases might not slug out the money to see a rematch, especially if they just spent a bunch of money to go see a CCG.

Lets also not forget that Miami could find itself in the Orange Bowl as the ACC champ. Thats one scenario that I could see play out where two teams from the same conference are chosen.

FSU beats Miami in the reg season.
Miami beats FSU in the ACC CCG.
FSU vs Miami in the Orange Bowl.

(10-19-2013 09:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:20 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  With Louisville's loss last night, the following scenario could befall the Orange Bowl. Let's make these assumptions:

Alabama/Oregon play for the national title.
Ohio State and Stanford play in the Rose Bowl.
Baylor wins the Big 12 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl.
LSU gets selected for the Sugar Bowl.
Clemson wins the ACC and goes to the Orange Bowl.

That leaves 3 slots left (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar).

One slot will be taken by the AAC champ and let's assume for now that's UCF. The other two slots will be at large. Let's assume one will go to Fresno State (due to possibly being ranked ahead of an AQ champ) the other goes to FSU.

Orange Bowl gets the first selection this year. Who do they take? Rematch with FSU or do they take UCF. UCF will help fill the stadium but it will be horrible for TV. If today's game is close between the FSU/Clem, would people want to see a rematch? Would the OB want a rematch?

Your scenario seems very unlikely, because there doesn't seem to be a good reason as to why the last slot must go to FSU. The only way that happens is if (a) Fresno and UCF are in the top 14, which is very unlikely, and (b) the PAC and SEC have 4 more teams ranked in the top 14 as well, also unlikely. That's the only way we can force the choices you want us to make.

But anyway, going with your assumptions, it's a no-brainer: The Orange takes FSU, simply because in the entire history of the BCS, no bowl has ever willingly taken a Big East (now AAC) team over any team from any other conference. FSU is a big name-brand and UCF isn't. Sure, the prospect of a rematch could be a drawback, but that will be swamped by the huge disparity in brand-name recognition between FSU and UCF.

So the Orange re-matches Clemson vs FSU, the Sugar then takes UCF, and the Fiesta is stuck with Fresno.

UCF gets an autobid for being the AAC champ. If Fresno State finishes ahead of UCF and if they are in the top 16, they get a bid as well. That's what the rule stipulates. That can very much happen. As for FSU, any bowl would be happy to take the Seminoles. That's without question.

(10-19-2013 09:41 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:39 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:32 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:23 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:11 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One problem with your theory. Florida State is winning today and Winston takes another huge step forward towards seeing another freshman win the Heisman and for the second year in a row.


In terms of your talk about UCF. I think it will depend upon the rest of the season for UCF. UCF isn't Northern Illinois. So far this UCF team looks very impressive against strong competition. Their win against Louisville makes it a different conversation already.

I think a Clemson vs UCF match up would be a good one.

I think a Florida State vs UCF match up is a great one for everyone in the country other than the Big Three schools down in Florida. I would definitely be pulling for UCF in that one. I think that match up can easily be marketed for TV and not just for folks in Florida. It is David vs Goliath in terms of those programs.

Edit: Oh yeah, one more problem. UCLA is beating Stanford today too.

I can see UCLA beating Stanford and FSU beating Clemson today. That wouldn't be a surprise to most of us.

So if FSU beats Clemson today, who do they lose to? An undefeated FSU may be playing for the national title.

Very true, FSU could possibly oust Oregon if they both end up undefeated but I think the PAC this year has the SoS to help Oregon edge out FSU if Oregon wins out. That is a true toss up but if Clemson wins over FSU in this game then don't they have the same chance? Hell, Clemson is ranked #3 right now right behind Oregon.

Oregon is only playing Washington State today. If both teams win then we could see Clemson pass up Oregon in the standings. If FSU wins, do they jump three spots to pass up Oregon? I don't think it is very likely that Ohio State loses. I think FSU will pass them up with a win for sure but do they get the votes to pass up both Ohio State and Oregon if both schools also win?

I think Clemson has the better chance. Florida State's game against Florida isn't going to mean as much as it usually does as Florida is not likely to still be ranked when that time comes.

If FSU wins today...they still get top 10 Miami in two weeks...then at Florida which will still mean something because it's on the road..then most likely a rematch with Miami or VT in the ACCCG. Ohio State can't match that in the polls or computers. Passing Oregon would be interesting because they've been impressive. FSU may have to hope they struggle a little bit even in victory.

Ahh yes, that's right about Miami. Does Clemson have any more big games this year?

South Carolina which is a big one.

(10-19-2013 09:20 AM)jnewyouth Wrote:  The American is wide open right now. Too early to predict their champ.

Don't be so sure of that. UCF's only loss is to South Carolina, and they just took down Louisville at Louisville. IMO they've already played their toughest games. It's all downhill from here for UCF, since they play Houston and Rutgers at home, and their other games (UConn, @Temple, USF, and @SMU) should pose no problem...

Houston still has to play @Rutgers, USF, @UCF, @Louisville, Cincy, and SMU at home.
Cincinnati finishes the season today against UConn, @Memphis, SMU, @Rutgers, @Houston, and at home against Louisville.
Rutgers plays Houston today, Temple, and Cincy at home, @UCF, @UConn, and USF at home.

IMO I'd have to give UCF the edge, since all their tough remaining games are at home, and UCF would have to stumble twice to give Louisville the bid. They have the tie breaker on the head to head...

It's not a problem for the Orange.
This is the selection order this year:
1-2 to Title game.
SEC champ to Sugar
ACC champ to Orange
Big 10 champ to Rose
Pac-12 champ to Rose
Big XII champ to Fiesta

If Alabama is #1 and Oregon is #2 then the remaining slots are filled with champs and then Sugar will select a team to replace Alabama, followed by the Rose who will select a team to replace Oregon. They may select any nine win team rated in the top 14 as long as they don't select a 3rd team from a conference or they can select a non-AQ champ rated 12 or better or 16 or better if one of the 5 AQ champs is rated 13-16 if it is rated higher than an AQ.

After Sugar and Fiesta make their replacement picks, the regular picks begin.
Orange will select first and can select any top 14 or remaining auto qualifier they like as long as it isn't the third team from a league.

Sugar selects next.
If this scenario were to play out with Fresno 15 and UCF 16 and Orange does not select either team the Sugar MUST select either UCF or Fresno.

Fiesta has the final selection and if there is an auto qualifier remaining (either Fresno or UCF in this hypo), Fiesta takes the one left.

I doubt it'd happen, but the loser of Clemson/Florida State could play in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would have the first replacement pick for losing the #1 team (Alabama), then the Rose for the #2 team (Oregon).

BCS Title Game: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Oregon

Rose: #4 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Orange: #3 Clemson (ACC champ)
Fiesta: Baylor (Big 12 champ)

Replacement picks:
Sugar - South Carolina
Rose - UCLA

Normal picks:

Orange - UCF (AQ-AAC champ)
Sugar - Florida State
Fiesta - Fresno State (AQ for being ranked in Top 12, or Top 16 and ahead of an AQ champion)

There is also the possibility of a Clemson-South Carolina rematch - if the Sugar Bowl takes Florida State it could be a very real possibility. The BCS needs at least 3 SEC teams in the Top 12 or for Missouri to finish 12-1 to dodge that bullet.

Right now South Carolina is getting a whoopin at the hands of the Volunteers. If they lose this game then they are going to drop quite a bit from #11.

Keep in mind the ACC now owns the Orange Bowl.

Normally there would not be an ACC rematch but given that the ACC now owns the bowl game a rematch between a 12-1 or 13-0 Clemson team versus a 11-1 FSU game would probably happen and fill the Orange Bowl. Miami does not have the QB to make a national championship run - they would have to beat FSU twice or FSU and Clemson and VT. That's just not going to happen.

However, a lot of this is predicated on FSU not choking to what will be an inferior Florida team and Clemson not choking to what seems will be an overmatched SC team.

(10-19-2013 12:28 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I doubt it'd happen, but the loser of Clemson/Florida State could play in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would have the first replacement pick for losing the #1 team (Alabama), then the Rose for the #2 team (Oregon).

BCS Title Game: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Oregon

Rose: #4 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Orange: #3 Clemson (ACC champ)
Fiesta: Baylor (Big 12 champ)

Replacement picks:
Sugar - South Carolina
Rose - UCLA

Normal picks:

Orange - UCF (AQ-AAC champ)
Sugar - Florida State
Fiesta - Fresno State (AQ for being ranked in Top 12, or Top 16 and ahead of an AQ champion)

There is also the possibility of a Clemson-South Carolina rematch - if the Sugar Bowl takes Florida State it could be a very real possibility. The BCS needs at least 3 SEC teams in the Top 12 or for Missouri to finish 12-1 to dodge that bullet.

If there's a one loss Pac12 team, you can forget about anyone else getting a Rose Bowl bid, whether they deserve it or not. Tradition trumps all out west...

UCF appears to be the team to beat in the AAC. If they win out, I don't see Fresno State being ranked ahead of UCF.

Cincinnati doesn't play UCF this year, which seems like a failure in the scheduling process.

(10-19-2013 12:58 PM)back2vinyl Wrote:  UCF appears to be the team to beat in the AAC. If they win out, I don't see Fresno State being ranked ahead of UCF.

Cincinnati doesn't play UCF this year, which seems like a failure in the scheduling process.

It's using an 8 game schedule with a 10 team conference...