I was surprised how Nbe fans have finally recognized reality (and futility) in their reaction to Jersey Guy's column on the Nbe board.

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=618671

With the NBC Nbe tv contract now known, I think it is obvious certain situations now exist that will probably result in Cincy and UConn in C7. College sports is all about money. With C7 having a $4M per school offer on the table and with NBC making a run at FOX to get C7 and a strong indication that C7 payout could be more than $4M per school, the monies in NBE of $1.7M per Nbe school for all sports ($20M/12 Nbe schools), and the fianances are such that Cincy and UConn staying in Nbe look very, very slim.

It was thought B1G would take 2 more ACC teams, but now it looks like B1G is prepared to take four. SEC would then probably take 2. And the B12, now scared to death, might take 6 ACC schools rather than 2 or 4. In other words, there will be no ACC left. I predicted a truncated ACC, primarily eastern conference, would appear eventually but now, I don't think so as ACC will be complete ravaged.

C7 must add one school according to the FOX tv reports. But my guess is C7 hold to 8 teams for a short while to see how the situation with UConn and Cincy develop. My guess now is neither Cincy or UConn end up in a BCS conference. So what are their two choices, if they put their basketball in C7?

One option is Nbe for football only. The second guess is independence. Games against each other, plus games against BYU and Navy and Temple would provide 4 late season games. A scheduling alliance with Nbe and/or CUSA for 4 or 5 additional late season games would solve the scheduling problem. My guess is that Cincy and UConn make one of these two choices.

For Nbe, the decision would be to accept Cincy and UConn as football members only. My observation as a CUSA and B12 fan and as an observer of Nbe gyrations....is to tell Cincy and UConn no. It is all sports or nothing.

If UConn and Cincy leave, then Nbe will be down to 8/9 teams and Nbe will need 3/4 new additions, most likely add Marshall, Southern Miss, and Tulsa and basically, the old CUSA reappears. It is a dog chasing its tail. If Nbe goes beyond 12, lo and behold all the old CUSA teams are back together again.

My speculation is based on the assumption of "follow the money." And given the financial difference between C7 and Nbe, I just don't see Cincy and UConn in Nbe for the long run.

THe key will be to watch what C7 does. If it holds at 8 members for the time being, then I think C7 has its eyes on UConn and Cincy for future membership.

Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

and where will their football end up?

Independent? They're certainly not Notre Dame nor even BYU. The MAC? That will effectively kill Cincinnati football.

Tallgrass once again is twisting reality. The C7 doesn't want the league dissolved. We'd lose out on a LOT of money. Also prob see a lawsuit from the new teams in that instance. Also the C7 are not taking FBS schools. UConn is the only one we might POSSIBLY take if we decided to go down that road and that's because of shared history.

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will go with the C7 if offered. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

(02-15-2013 10:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will probably go with the C7. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

It's not inevitable at all...

A few things-
1- Cincy and UConn would be getting 2/3 of the money that the football side gets.
2- C7 isn't getting 4 million. It's closer to 3-3.33 million depending on the # of teams.
3- Cincy and UConn have to have a place for their football. It won't be the NBE.

(02-15-2013 09:51 AM)Tallgrass Wrote:  I was surprised how Nbe fans have finally recognized reality (and futility) in their reaction to Jersey Guy's column on the Nbe board.

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=618671

With the NBC Nbe tv contract now known, I think it is obvious certain situations now exist that will probably result in Cincy and UConn in C7. College sports is all about money. With C7 having a $4M per school offer on the table

$3M per school for 10 schools, $3.3M for 12

Quote:and with NBC making a run at FOX to get C7

Wrong. You're talking about the confused SI Fan-nation article that mixed up the Aresco-NBC contract with the C7, because the Aresco Big East contract has the C7 for one year. It also called the deal "lucrative"

Quote: THe key will be to watch what C7 does. If it holds at 8 members for the time being, then I think C7 has its eyes on UConn and Cincy for future membership.

Every article on the subject has Xavier and Butler as locks. And the C-7 is holding at 7 members for the time being, as we negotiate the split with Aresco.

(02-15-2013 10:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will probably go with the C7. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

It's not inevitable at all...

A few things-
1- Cincy and UConn would be getting 2/3 of the money that the football side gets.
2- C7 isn't getting 4 million. It's closer to 3-3.33 million depending on the # of teams.
3- Cincy and UConn have to have a place for their football. It won't be the NBE.

Who would we replace thier football with that would be more valuable? The nBE has zero bargaining power. cUSA, the MW, and likely the MAC would all take them. Losing them would make the other league stronger and ours weaker. We are just a nameless nonAQ league. It really doesn't matter if they are football only or not. The only loser in that scenario is the nBE. We can either lose a little or alot. We are losing basketball for sure. We are free to lose football as well if choose foolishly.

UConn is likely on the ACC's short list.

(02-15-2013 10:47 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will probably go with the C7. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

It's not inevitable at all...

A few things-
1- Cincy and UConn would be getting 2/3 of the money that the football side gets.
2- C7 isn't getting 4 million. It's closer to 3-3.33 million depending on the # of teams.
3- Cincy and UConn have to have a place for their football. It won't be the NBE.

Who would we replace thier football with that would be more valuable? The nBE has zero bargaining power. cUSA, the MW, and likely the MAC would all take them. Losing them would make the other league stronger and ours weaker. We are just a nameless nonAQ league. It really doesn't matter if they are football only or not. The only loser in that scenario is the nBE. We can either lose a little or alot. We are losing basketball for sure. We are free to lose football as well if choose foolishly.

No if they want out in basketball there is zero reason to keep them in football. Right now their instability is a big part of the reason the TV value is really really bad, so you keep the stability and lose their actual value? That makes no sense on any level. At 2 million a year it's clear no one in this league has been given any value, so if they want out they can leave. Simple as that.

(02-15-2013 10:47 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will probably go with the C7. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

It's not inevitable at all...

A few things-
1- Cincy and UConn would be getting 2/3 of the money that the football side gets.
2- C7 isn't getting 4 million. It's closer to 3-3.33 million depending on the # of teams.
3- Cincy and UConn have to have a place for their football. It won't be the NBE.

Who would we replace thier football with that would be more valuable? The nBE has zero bargaining power. cUSA, the MW, and likely the MAC would all take them. Losing them would make the other league stronger and ours weaker. We are just a nameless nonAQ league. It really doesn't matter if they are football only or not. The only loser in that scenario is the nBE. We can either lose a little or alot. We are losing basketball for sure. We are free to lose football as well if choose foolishly.

Yes, two of those three conferences would likely take Cincy and UCONN (MWC wouldn't). But that would kill their football programs and they know it. TV and attendance would be the pits (money and exposure). It's not the Big East is awesome but it is FAR better than those two alternatives. The Big East doesn't have to bend over backwards to accept football-only for those two because they know what a bind it puts those schools football programs in. I'm betting it's all-in or all-out.

But then again, Aresco is still tossing around ECU as football only to go along with Navy as football only...why not add two more and keep the beloved hybrid alive and well?

(02-15-2013 10:51 AM)jediwarrior Wrote:  UConn is likely on the ACC's short list.

Only if the ACC loses FSU and Clemson. As long as those two are in the ACC then UConn is never getting in.

(02-15-2013 10:55 AM)apex_pirate Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:47 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will probably go with the C7. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

It's not inevitable at all...

A few things-
1- Cincy and UConn would be getting 2/3 of the money that the football side gets.
2- C7 isn't getting 4 million. It's closer to 3-3.33 million depending on the # of teams.
3- Cincy and UConn have to have a place for their football. It won't be the NBE.

Who would we replace thier football with that would be more valuable? The nBE has zero bargaining power. cUSA, the MW, and likely the MAC would all take them. Losing them would make the other league stronger and ours weaker. We are just a nameless nonAQ league. It really doesn't matter if they are football only or not. The only loser in that scenario is the nBE. We can either lose a little or alot. We are losing basketball for sure. We are free to lose football as well if choose foolishly.

Yes, two of those three conferences would likely take Cincy and UCONN (MWC wouldn't). But that would kill their football programs and they know it. TV and attendance would be the pits (money and exposure). It's not the Big East is awesome but it is FAR better than those two alternatives. The Big East doesn't have to bend over backwards to accept football-only for those two because they know what a bind it puts those schools football programs in. I'm betting it's all-in or all-out.

But then again, Aresco is still tossing around ECU as football only to go along with Navy as football only...why not add two more and keep the beloved hybrid alive and well?

Aresco is a damned idiot for even considering that at this point. You guys should just stay in CUSA if he tries to pull that move.

Cincy and UConn aren't going to nuke their football programs any further by joining the MAC,CUSA or the MWC, it would be idiotic to do so over a million extra bucks.

nBE is still the best place for those football programs while they bide their time waiting for ACC invites.

(02-15-2013 10:47 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:32 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 09:53 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Exit fees and tournament credits will keep those two from moving. No need to pay two or three exit fees if the Big Ten makes a move this spring.

If the conference votes to disband, and UConn and UC would carry the votes needed, there are no exits fees for anyone. Of course that removes a large source of income, the NCAA tourney credits coming from schools that have already exited or made their intent to exit known. But it removes any exit fees for anyone...

I think that the exit fees will be much lower after 2014. Cinci and UConn will probably go with the C7. It's inevitable. Two million a year is joke when the c7 is getting 4 million.

It's not inevitable at all...

A few things-
1- Cincy and UConn would be getting 2/3 of the money that the football side gets.
2- C7 isn't getting 4 million. It's closer to 3-3.33 million depending on the # of teams.
3- Cincy and UConn have to have a place for their football. It won't be the NBE.

Who would we replace thier football with that would be more valuable? The nBE has zero bargaining power. cUSA, the MW, and likely the MAC would all take them. Losing them would make the other league stronger and ours weaker. We are just a nameless nonAQ league. It really doesn't matter if they are football only or not. The only loser in that scenario is the nBE. We can either lose a little or alot. We are losing basketball for sure. We are free to lose football as well if choose foolishly.

Those conferences may take them- but UConn or Cincy aren't going to CUSA to play football. That's just ludicrous. They won't go to the MAC- that devastates their program. The MWC maybe- but travel makes that very unlikely. So if they don't have a viable place to play outside the NBE, why make concessions you don't have to make?

Cincinnati isn't going to join the C7 unless the admins do not believe UC has a chance to get to a power conference before the realignment door closes shut. Personally I think UC will be patient and, before 2014, that invite will come...

(02-15-2013 10:55 AM)WNCOrange Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:51 AM)jediwarrior Wrote:  UConn is likely on the ACC's short list.

Only if the ACC loses FSU and Clemson. As long as those two are in the ACC then UConn is never getting in.

FSU got their UL pick last time, the Empire(UNC) will strike back this time by taking their choice of UConn.

(02-15-2013 11:07 AM)OldGoldnBlue Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:55 AM)WNCOrange Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:51 AM)jediwarrior Wrote:  UConn is likely on the ACC's short list.

Only if the ACC loses FSU and Clemson. As long as those two are in the ACC then UConn is never getting in.

FSU got their UL pick last time, the Empire(UNC) will strike back this time by taking their choice of UConn.

You do understand that it only takes a few votes to block and there were mroe than just FSU that didn't want UConn.

(02-15-2013 11:13 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 11:07 AM)OldGoldnBlue Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:55 AM)WNCOrange Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 10:51 AM)jediwarrior Wrote:  UConn is likely on the ACC's short list.

Only if the ACC loses FSU and Clemson. As long as those two are in the ACC then UConn is never getting in.

FSU got their UL pick last time, the Empire(UNC) will strike back this time by taking their choice of UConn.

You do understand that it only takes a few votes to block and there were mroe than just FSU that didn't want UConn.

Yes, and you do understand that UNC has a large amount of pull with a lot of those votes. Tobacco Road still controls that conference much like Texas still controls the Big 12. Lets not fool ourselves, Tobacco Road let FSU and Clemson have their way with the UL pick to appease them for the time being

FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and 1 other school(Syracuse or Boston College) can block any expansion. UNC couldn't do a damn thing about it.