(05-18-2012 11:51 AM)Panthersville Wrote: (05-18-2012 11:46 AM)AtlantaJag Wrote: (05-17-2012 05:26 PM)arkstfan Wrote: Your comments about us desiring to be small market and not aspiring to grow are out-of-line and disrespectful to the members of this conference.
This post pretty much makes my point - you want to disparage your best options and add small markets - that is anti-growth defined.
To weigh in on this just portion of the discussion, I think that adding small markets is the SBC's best strategy. When CUSA or the Big East come hunting for programs to poach, they look for the market size, not the quality of athletic product. The best long-term strategy for the Sun Belt is to include well-run programs from small markets, like WKU for basketball or Troy for football. Those programs will have success because they have the support and leadership necessary for every successful program, regardless of their market. Their success will reflect well on the rest of the conference and help it's overall image and negotiating power without the inevitable poaching that will occur when another conference needs a new member.
So, a program with too much potential is bad, and a program that will never be attractive enough to leave is good. Again, this is the defeatist posture that will keep the SBC down. If that is what you want, then great. Just don't get upset when someone points it out.
In 1999 you would be telling us to load up on dot com stocks because the growth potential was unlimited and in spring 2008 telling us to load up on real estate because it will always outperform stocks.
The "market" madness is driven by what may very well be temporary condition in the television markets. Did you pay any attention to the vaunted Pac-12 Network? In most markets it isn't a channel on the TV, it will be part of the "on-demand" programming of TV service providers. They've already made the first leap in dealing with the next problem facing the TV industry, cord cutters. They are putting the programming on to prevent people from dumping their cable company to get internet video.
Are you familiar with the Horizon League TV network? It is an internet based network the very thing Pac-12 is trying to avoid.
Netflix has started buying original content. They are building an online subscriber based network.
ESPN3 is a money loser but they are investing huge in it because they see the direction we are headed, into a world where fewer and fewer people subscribe to cable or satellite. Congress continues to toy with the idea of requiring cable and satellite to offer ala carte programming. Industry experts estimate that if ala carte passes, ESPN will have to charge $20 to $30 a month to be viable. That's why they are trying to get in the internet arena, ESPN3 is offered on a per subscriber fee. They want to preserve the model knowing that while some people will fork out $25 a month to get ESPN, many will only do it during the season of their favorite sport and others will opt for a lower quality picture on ESPN3 that is included in their internet package.
Apple is venturing into the pay delivery of video and Google is experimenting with live content via YouTube.
In 15 years when these mega deals start expiring we may already be in an environment where sports are much more a subscriber based product. We may be in an environment where advertisers no longer believe a 30 second untargeted commercial carries much value and advertising has moved away from conventional television and is instead built around internet and mobile platforms on social networks. Google, Facebook and Twitter have the capability to track you when not on their sites and eventually will be able to highly target ads. Assuming that the 30 second TV model of advertising is the top is foolish and ignores history and current trends.
In 2027 the blockbuster deals may well be subscriber based deals for delivery via cable on-demand, internet, or mobile apps. If that is our environment Alabama, Nebraska, Texas will have to think long and hard about signing their video rights over to their conference when they can make more money selling them on their own when ad dollars no longer drive the market (keep an eye on Longhorn Net, Major League Soccer and Fox Soccer Net are already getting their feet wet in this field offering delivery via cable/satellite, internet, and apps to subscribers).
If that is our marketplace who is more valuable? SMU located in one of the nation's largest TV markets but drawing less than Arkansas State or East Carolina in one of the smaller markets but drawing more than double what SMU does? The number of people who care enough to buy a ticket is likely an outstanding indicator of how many will care enough to buy a subscription to receive the content.
Also remember the national demographics are changing. A recent poll of males age 15 to 25 found their favorite sport to be the NFL followed by soccer. The #2 spot had been held by college football. In another 10 years they are going to be much more desirable audience as they become wealthier and reaching that group of 25-35 year olds will mean moving ad dollars from college football to soccer programming.
Your whole premise of chasing markets is based on an assumption that today's 30 second ad dollar gold rush will be infinite in growth. Just as radio was an infinite growth market in 1949 and newspapers were an infinite growth market in 1925.
INTELLIGENT leadership doesn't chase fads. Dell has nearly killed itself making "me too" Apple product clones.
You look at the base fundamentals. Does this program have an established history of fielding winning teams? Does this program have an established history of taking positive corrective action when the program slips? Does the program have a demonstrated capability of selling tickets? Does the program have a demonstrated capability of raising donations and selling sponsorships?
A small market team that has those features is likely to win and have TV value (see Boise State) (see Fresno roughly the size of Little Rock) and if the nature of the athletic revenue economy changes are their fundamentals strong enough that they will be positioned to take advantage? What good will it do for SMU to be a large market if they have weak fundamentals and cannot withstand a change in the athletic economy?
What is so stupid and pig headed about your arguments is you repeat over and over your liars mantra that we are defeatist if we look at small markets. That is a lie. There is not a person I am aware of on this board who opposes a large market team for the sake of being in a large market. There are plenty of us who oppose large market teams who don't have stong fundamentals and offer nothing other than their presence in a large metro area.
There are more ways to make money than off default viewership. This year one NCAA unit was worth $258,000. WKU earned two. That is a guaranteed revenue stream of $3 million over the next six years.
Build a conference that earns 5 units per year in basketball (one Sweet 16 team and two teams losing the first round) you will generate nearly $8 million annually and have a success level that will lead to a better television contract. If you win one additional first round game per year each year you generate $9.2 million annually and have even greater TV value.
Bust the BCS it is likely next form (4 team playoff plus some bowls where you get in at #12 or #16) and you are looking at a payoff of $20 million to $30 million. Do that once every four years and it averages out to $5 million to $6 million per year.
Just play good basketball and football regardless of market size and you can generate enough income to equal the CUSA TV deal before you even get to the point of negotiating TV rights. The WAC quadrupled their TV deal just on the strength of good performances by small market Boise, small market Nevada, medium market Fresno, and almost big enough to be a medium market Honolulu.
You want only large markets. If I have to choose between schools with equal fundamentals, I'll go with the larger market. But if my choice is a program in a small market that is averaging 23,000 people a game and winning 70% of the time vs. a program that avverages 17,000 by offering a lot of 2 for 1 and $5 discount tickets and has boosters buying tickets that are never used and is winning 50% of its games, I'm taking the small market team every time.