(08-29-2011 11:00 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: I think we can look at it this way. Is there any CUSA program that the Belt wouldn't love to have as a SBC member.
UAB doesn't bring much in football. Marshall not so much either. UTEP is too far away to get too excited about. Memphis and Tulane blow chunks as far as football goes. Rice as well.
But having said that. Even though Memphis and Tulane might finish at the bottom of the Belt, they have loooooong histories and above average facilities for the 'Belt.
I couldn't concieve the 'Belt turning down any CUSA member.
That's because it's a better conference pretty much across the board. The school's have better academic reputations, bigger endowments, more name recognition, and they're marginally better in most sports and much better in a few others, even baseball(probably our best sport) is a little bit better in CUSA(they typically rank 1-2 spots ahead of us in conference RPI). It's not that they're waaaay ahead of us in any sport(aside from MBB anyhow) it's the sum of all the small advantages they have over us. There's only a handful of schools who wouldn't have led the Sun Belt in attendance last year, they're bottom feeders attendance is just a little bit worse than our best.
I would gladly take any member of CUSA, the only one I'd even hesitate on would be UTEP and that's only out of geographic considerations.
Now of course in the scenario that they are raided, it would, in theory be possible for us to attempt a power move, but it could backfire on us and rather than us taking two CUSA members, they just take WAC or FCS members and while they're now a bit weaker than they were before, they're still the better conference by virtue of the fact that the core of their conference still has those advantages(endowment, academics, football average attendance, MBB, etc.) and every Sun Belt member who refused the invite is left kicking themselves.
You just have to ask yourself, what's better for
your program...
Staying in the same poorly regarded(although improving) conference that would improve a bit more by adding a few former CUSA members and watching FCS/WAC teams fill out CUSA and probably the conferences be on near equal footing...
or
Joining a freshly raided CUSA with the other fellow "stars" of your conference. Taking with you, most of what made the Sun Belt good, and joining the remainder of a conference that's stronger than what's left of the conference you just left behind.
Do this little exercise, pick who you consider to be the top 4 most attractive potential conference mates in CUSA, be it for overall strength of their program or an individual sport that's important to you, be it because they are an instate program that you'd love to start a rivalry with, or be it some other factor(or combination of factors), just your top 4.
For me:
1) Memphis
2) Southern Miss
3) East Carolina
4) Central Florida
Now pick your top three conference mates and/or any FCS schools you'd take with you if it were up to you, again whatever schools you choose for whatever reasons you decide is your business, just pick them...
For me
1) Western Kentucky
2) South Alabama
3) One of FAU/FIU
Now take away your favorite member of CUSA and put yourself in their place and ask yourself what looks better, your program with the other 11 CUSA schools, or your program in the Sun Belt plus your two favorite CUSA members, also compare you plus the other 11 CUSA members to you in the Sun Belt as it exists today, because that's the comparison that really matters in the event that CUSA balks at our power play and backfills with La Tech and FCS schools. You can continue the exercise on down the line, does you and your top choice to come with you to CUSA look better than you in the current Sun Belt?
See at the end of the day CUSA is still in the position of power, unless we sign something legally binding to deter us from defecting(i.e. large exit fees) CUSA will know that we won't turn them down if for no other reason than the fear that one of our conference mates won't honor the agreement. How bad would it suck to turn down an invite banking on the fact that everyone else took the agreement seriously only to have a few of your conference mates bail? CUSA will know this and use it as leverage, furthermore, it's unlikely our members will be willing to sign up for large exit fees from fear that our power play does backfire and CUSA backfills without us rather than us poaching two of their members. CUSA will know this and use it as leverage. The only way for our power play to have any hope of working is if we all sign the exit fees and we'll all only sign the exit fees if we're sincerely okay with the chance of the backfire and us not being able to grab two members, thus only closing the gap between us and CUSA, not necessarily taking over...and at the end of the day, I just don't think we'll be okay with that. It's just not the smartest move to back yourself into a corner like that.