http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/02/news/com.../index.htm

Battered auto sales show improvement
U.S. automakers report falling vehicle sales in May that, while still weak, give the industry a glimmer of hope.

By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: June 2, 2009: 3:26 PM ET

The best deals now from GM and Chrysler

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite unprecedented turmoil in the auto industry General Motors, Chrysler LLC and Ford Motors all reported auto sales that, while still anemic, were much better than expected.

GM and Chrysler both said they believe their market share increased, and Ford Motor Co. estimated that its May sales helped it to climb to its highest market share in three years.

In their monthly reports all the major automakers said that they believed economic conditions were improving and that auto sales have largely bottomed out.

"Consumer confidence, a key factor in car buying, rose in May by the most in six years and is now at a level not seen since last September," said Michelle Krebs, of Edmunds.com. "This good news couldn't come soon enough for the auto industry, and the benefits are already coming in for most automakers."

Still, a Ford executive said it expected a bumpy recovery.

0:00 /02:48GM CEO: We will get through this
"This is still a very fragile industry," said Ken Czubay, Ford's vice president of sales, on a conference call with reporters. "It won't be a straight line up from here to the end of the year."

From early tallies, it appears that the auto industry's May sales, as a whole, beat analyst forecasts. Edmunds.com expected industry-wide sales in May to have fallen 36.1% from May 2008, which would be slightly worse than April's 34% year-over-year drop.

General Motors: GM (GMGMQ) said total car and light truck sales fell 29% compared to a year earlier. That was a much narrower decline than the Edmunds.com analysts' forecast of a 36.9% drop and better than the 33% retreat in April.

"May results really do reflect consumer confidence about GM's long term viability across the globe,"said Mike DiGiovanni, head of market research at GM. "May was a good sign, because of all the press we've had to deal with, and the positive sales results give us a good foundation to build on as we reinvent the company."

The May numbers were unadjusted for the extra day this year.

Its four brands which will be dropped in a restructuring of the company - Pontiac, Saturn, Saab and Hummer - each reported much bigger sales declines than GM's overall drop, the worst being a 63.5% plunge in Saab sales.

GM announced Tuesday it sold its Hummer line to an undisclosed company. A person with knowledge of the deal told CNNMoney.com GM will sell Hummer to Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Company Ltd. in China.

When it emerges from bankruptcy, GM is expected to continue with its four core brands, Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac. Collectively, those brands' sales were up 18% from April to May, compared to 11% month-over-month increase company-wide.

After it drops four of its brands, GM acknowledged that it will likely lose a sliver of its market share. But the company said it believes it will be able to make up some of the lost share with its core brands.

Chrysler: Chrysler, which entered bankruptcy on April 30, also reported better than expected sales in May.

Sales tumbled 47% from May 2008, better than the 53.9% drop forecasted by analysts. Like its rivals, Chrysler also reported the best retail sales of 2009.

"We are pleased that consumers responded to Chrysler's reorganization by purchasing our products," said Jim Press, Chrysler president, in a statement. "The uncertainty that has been surrounding Chrysler for the last few months is coming to an end, and a vibrant, new company is beginning to take shape."

Ford: Ford Motor Co. reported Tuesday its U.S. auto sales were the highest since July 2008, even as sales fell 24.3% from last year.

Ford (F, Fortune 500)'s year-over-year sales drop was a narrower than analysts' forecast of a 28.5% drop and much improved over the 32% retreat in April.

Despite flailing competitors, the company said it believed the sales improvement from April to May had more to do with increasing consumer demand than turmoil at GM and Chrysler. Accordingly, Ford said it will begin to raise its production as the company sees sales beginning to pick up.

Though Ford's car models fell by 25.5%, sales of its mid-sized Fusion model were actually up 9.4% last month, the only Ford brand model that rose from last year. Crossover SUV sales dropped 9%, and traditional SUV sales tanked 37.4%. Overall, Ford truck sales fell 23.4%.

Toyota: Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp. said its May sales tanked 40.7% from May 2008, slightly worse than analysts' expectation of a 40.6% decline.

Ford's domestic brands outpaced Toyota's ™ for the second straight month, making it the second-largest automaker in terms of monthly U.S. sales behind GM.

Still, Toyota, like Ford and GM, reported its highest monthly sales total of 2009. The company cited a "big jump" in consumer confidence in May for the improved month-over-month results.

"We're encouraged that consumers are beginning to return to showrooms and that the industry continues to show signs of stabilization," "said Don Esmond, Toyota's senior vice president of automotive operations, in a statement.

Also Tuesday, rival Japanese automaker Nissan reported May sales fell 33.1%, better than the 35.1% analysts expected. And Honda Motor Co. (HMC) reported sales dropped 41.5% in May, slightly worse than the 39.3% forecasted by analysts.

Wow, how desperate do you have to be to consider a 30% drop in sales a positive sign?

How gullible do you have to be to consider such an analysis useful?

Even during the Great Depression there were upticks. We've dropped 50% but the last month we're up 7%! Time to buy before .... we plummet another 20% ....

(06-03-2009 04:42 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even during the Great Depression there were upticks. We've dropped 50% but the last month we're up 7%! Time to buy before .... we plummet another 20% ....

True, but were there industrial upticks? The upticks you're speaking of were in the stock market.

No one knows if we've bottomed out yet or not, but the evidence is encouraging that perhaps we have found the bottom.

Aside from the handfuls of bitter partisans here and in pockets around the country, most of America can't wait for things to turn around. I personally think that even if we have hit the bottom, recovery is going to be slow, and of the "2 steps forward, 1 step back" variety, for years. But I'll take that over further cratering.

(05-29-2009 05:50 PM)Rebel Wrote:  

(05-29-2009 03:48 PM)Artifice Wrote:  Stocks: Best 3-month run since '07

Right now we're working on "talk on the street" and confidence levels. If you think you've seen the worst, just wait until Obama's fiscal policies.......are actually IMPLEMENTED. Then, it's not gonna f'n matter a hill of beans about someone's opinion or confidence levels. If they're broke, they're f'n broke.

if Hyper-Inflation comes, it'll start to show its ugly head later this year(Over a year behind and for different reasons than what the Peter Schiffs were predicting a year ago, when they were 180 Degrees wrong). Anyway, if that comes, the DOW will inflate some too. Won't be real gains of course, but it really depends on the insane Budget and Obama being able to borrow the money or if he's forced to Monetize the Debt or raise Interest Rates through the roof to payoff his leftwing Special Interest groups.


The media's current narrative is to start claiming the economy is better because the Bad numbers now aren't that bad once you compare it to the previous numbers, never mind they are horrendous still.

btw, artface use to claim to be a "Fiscal Conservative" to bash bush, now though an apologist for the most extreme Fiscal Liberal we've ever had as POTUS, the messiah of course.

(06-03-2009 09:43 AM)GGniner Wrote:  btw, artface use to claim to be a "Fiscal Conservative" to bash bush, now though an apologist for the most extreme Fiscal Liberal we've ever had as POTUS, the messiah of course.

Is that really the best you've got?

(06-03-2009 08:07 AM)Artifice Wrote:  

(06-03-2009 04:42 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even during the Great Depression there were upticks. We've dropped 50% but the last month we're up 7%! Time to buy before .... we plummet another 20% ....

True, but were there industrial upticks? The upticks you're speaking of were in the stock market.

The durable goods uptick was not as pronounced as they wanted to make it. Much of April's orders came from Mar. You could even make a case that that in itself is a cause for concern. Inventories have been stretched and are continuing to be stretched.

Nevertheless, while this increased orders is a good sign, it's likely to be related to the stimulus package. It's pretty unclear if that will be sustained.

Moreover the GM and Chrysler restructuring WILL have an effect on their suppliers. That has slowed things down, and will continue to do so.

Quote:No one knows if we've bottomed out yet or not, but the evidence is encouraging that perhaps we have found the bottom.

I don't believe that's the case. Most indicators are still down, they may not be as down as expected. I know math isn't your strong suit, but a true bottom has a first derivative that yields a slope of zero. Having huge drops in sales of, is not a zero slope.

Quote:Aside from the handfuls of bitter partisans here and in pockets around the country, most of America can't wait for things to turn around.

They most certainly can wait, and will wait. Reality is like that. I'm sure most Americans want things to get better, but then again most want to win the lottery too.

I realize that virtually all politicians pander to their consitutents by promising them what they want, but that doesn't make it so.

Job market shows signs of improvement
Reports show narrower decline in private-sector job losses and slight drop in announced job cuts.
By Jessica Dickler and Catherine Clifford, CNNMoney.com staff writers
Last Updated: June 3, 2009: 8:53 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The pace of U.S. job losses -- while still fairly strong -- may be abating, according to a couple of reports released Wednesday.

Automatic Data Processing, a payroll-processing firm, said private-sector employers cut 532,000 jobs in May, a 2.4% improvement from the revised 545,000 drop in April.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a more modest loss of 525,000 jobs last month. ADP originally reported a loss of 491,000 private-sector jobs in April.

ADP said that despite recent signs of a burgeoning recovery, employers will likely continue to cut jobs for the next couple of months, but not as quickly as in the past six months.

"It's quite likely that employment has another million or million and a quarter to fall," said Joel Prakken, an ADP spokesman and chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.

Large businesses, those with 500 or more workers, shed 100,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with between 50 and 499 workers, chopped 223,000 workers. And small-businesses, those with less than 50 workers, shed 209,000 jobs.

The manufacturing and financial sectors were hard hit last month, according to the report. In its 39th consecutive monthly decline, the manufacturing sector lost 149,000 jobs. The financial sector lost 32,000 jobs in its 18th consecutive monthly decline.

"This was a weak report with the weakness widespread," Prakken said. However, "maybe we're starting to see some moderation in these job losses."

"The free fall in the economy is likely over," he said.

The report is based on anonymous payroll data that represents 400,000 of ADP's 500,000 domestic business clients and about 24 million employees across a broad range of industries.

Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of job cuts announced in May fell for the fourth straight month.

Challenger said job cut announcements by U.S. employers totaled 111,182 in May, an improvement of 16% from April's 132,590 cuts. It was the lowest total since last September, according to Challenger, but the May figure was still 7.4% higher than job cuts announced in the same month a year ago.

As states struggle with rising deficits, the government/non-profit sector was hit the hardest for the third month in a row, Challenger said, with 22,317 announced job cuts in May. The computer sector had the second highest tally of planned cuts, followed by the chemical and automotive industries.

While job cut totals have steadily fallen since January, growing unemployment is still a major concern.

"This decline in job cuts could be short-lived," John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a statement.

"The second quarter is typically the lowest quarter of the year when it comes to job cuts. Corporate downsizing may continue to remain slow during the summer months, but if the past is any indication, we could see the pace accelerate again in the latter half of the third quarter through the end of the year," he said.

Employers have announced 822,282 job cuts so far this year. That is more than double the 394,193 job cuts announced through this point of 2008, Challenger said.

The reports pave the way for the government's monthly jobs report due Friday. The Labor Department report is expected to show that the economy shed 550,000 jobs in May, slightly more than the 539,000 reported for April, according to a consensus estimate of economists complied by Briefing.com. The unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 9.2% from 8.9%

Pace is the important factor to monitor here. I think John Challenger makes a good point about seasonal slowness potentially showing a blip. But if the pace ends up being down again next quarter, then that will be good news, as jobs are a trailing statistic.

Still a long way to go before an upturn though. Have to arrest the loss pace first. Holding out hope for good news in Q4.

(06-03-2009 10:43 AM)Artifice Wrote:  Holding out hope for good news in Q4.

Must be a Browns fan.

And here I was thinking the updates to this thread would be Bernanke sweating in front of Congress, hinting that the printing presses are about to overheat. I believe his exact words were to the effect of the current US annual budget deficit being of serious jeopardy to the fiscal stability of the country.

(06-03-2009 08:07 AM)Artifice Wrote:  

(06-03-2009 04:42 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even during the Great Depression there were upticks. We've dropped 50% but the last month we're up 7%! Time to buy before .... we plummet another 20% ....

True, but were there industrial upticks? The upticks you're speaking of were in the stock market.

No one knows if we've bottomed out yet or not, but the evidence is encouraging that perhaps we have found the bottom.

Aside from the handfuls of bitter partisans here and in pockets around the country, most of America can't wait for things to turn around. I personally think that even if we have hit the bottom, recovery is going to be slow, and of the "2 steps forward, 1 step back" variety, for years. But I'll take that over further cratering.

Bernanke today should have not just shredded your hope ... but stomped on it, poured gasoline on it, set fire to it, then dropped a daisy cutter on it.

(06-03-2009 08:07 AM)Artifice Wrote:  Aside from the handfuls of bitter partisans here and in pockets around the country, most of America can't wait for things to turn around. I personally think that even if we have hit the bottom, recovery is going to be slow, and of the "2 steps forward, 1 step back" variety, for years. But I'll take that over further cratering.

If I thought that was where we are headed, I'd be okay with it. I think we are much more likely to have "1 step forward, 2 steps backward" at best, and massive further cratering at worst. I don't think we're anywhere near what the bottom is going to be. I expect the Dow to work slowly upward until about the end of the summer; then I expect a free-fall, and I expect the rest of the economic indicators to follow suit.

I still expect 20%-50% inflation, coupled with 20 to 50 million unemployed, once the full impact of the Obama "stimulus" is felt, probably starting sometime in the 2011-2013 time frame. And once we get there, I expect it to be steady state for 10+ years. As far as the Dow, I would expect the low in the 3800-4000 range.

I can't wait for things to turn around. I just think the wait got a lot longer because of what Shrub did about it, and it's getting far longer now that the Obamacrats are in charge. I don't want to see things fail, but I think that's the way we're being pushed.

After further review
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/20...nomy_N.htm

Quote:Orders for costly durable goods — items like cars and refrigerators intended to last three years or more — were slightly revised downwards to show an increase of 1.7% in April instead of the 1.9% rise previously reported. That followed a 2.2% decline in March.

Things keep getting worser after each revision. All that optimism seems to be the only product that manufacturers can sell...for the moment.

(06-03-2009 01:34 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(06-03-2009 08:07 AM)Artifice Wrote:  

(06-03-2009 04:42 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Even during the Great Depression there were upticks. We've dropped 50% but the last month we're up 7%! Time to buy before .... we plummet another 20% ....

True, but were there industrial upticks? The upticks you're speaking of were in the stock market.

No one knows if we've bottomed out yet or not, but the evidence is encouraging that perhaps we have found the bottom.

Aside from the handfuls of bitter partisans here and in pockets around the country, most of America can't wait for things to turn around. I personally think that even if we have hit the bottom, recovery is going to be slow, and of the "2 steps forward, 1 step back" variety, for years. But I'll take that over further cratering.

Bernanke today should have not just shredded your hope ... but stomped on it, poured gasoline on it, set fire to it, then dropped a daisy cutter on it.

Havent read/seen his take yet. Peter Orszag's discussions on the issue have been on point IMO.

(06-03-2009 02:07 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(06-03-2009 08:07 AM)Artifice Wrote:  Aside from the handfuls of bitter partisans here and in pockets around the country, most of America can't wait for things to turn around. I personally think that even if we have hit the bottom, recovery is going to be slow, and of the "2 steps forward, 1 step back" variety, for years. But I'll take that over further cratering.

If I thought that was where we are headed, I'd be okay with it. I think we are much more likely to have "1 step forward, 2 steps backward" at best, and massive further cratering at worst. I don't think we're anywhere near what the bottom is going to be. I expect the Dow to work slowly upward until about the end of the summer; then I expect a free-fall, and I expect the rest of the economic indicators to follow suit.

I still expect 20%-50% inflation, coupled with 20 to 50 million unemployed, once the full impact of the Obama "stimulus" is felt, probably starting sometime in the 2011-2013 time frame. And once we get there, I expect it to be steady state for 10+ years. As far as the Dow, I would expect the low in the 3800-4000 range.

I can't wait for things to turn around. I just think the wait got a lot longer because of what Shrub did about it, and it's getting far longer now that the Obamacrats are in charge. I don't want to see things fail, but I think that's the way we're being pushed.

This is where you and I part ways. I'm not being insulting, but you go ideologue here and I don't buy the arguments. I can't say where it's going to go any better than you can, but the cheerleading for it to fail, by the group I mentioned, just because we have a Democrat President who inherited this mess is pathetic. That's not to say i include you in that group, but damn, you are pessimistic man. I can pretty safely argue that you are taking the worst conceivable case scenario as the most likely.

I just want to know what we, as a nation, "win" if the Obama adminsitrations efforts to correct the recession/depression fail? A bunch of backslapping from a handful of bitter ideologues who are conveniently ignoring the fact that we've been on this slide for years? That the last adminsitration/political party couldn't fix it either and proposed the same type of solution?

(06-03-2009 03:15 PM)Artifice Wrote:  This is where you and I part ways. I'm not being insulting, but you go ideologue here and I don't buy the arguments. I can't say where it's going to go any better than you can, but the cheerleading for it to fail, by the group I mentioned, just because we have a Democrat President who inherited this mess is pathetic. That's not to say i include you in that group, but damn, you are pessimistic man. I can pretty safely argue that you are taking the worst conceivable case scenario as the most likely.
I just want to know what we, as a nation, "win" if the Obama adminsitrations efforts to correct the recession/depression fail? A bunch of backslapping from a handful of bitter ideologues who are conveniently ignoring the fact that we've been on this slide for years? That the last adminsitration/political party couldn't fix it either and proposed the same type of solution?

I am somewhat insulted by the insinuation that I am "going ideologue," but given that your comments are far tamer than a lot of what goes on here, I can live with it.

This is not ideologue at all, at least not in a republican/democrat partisan sense. I really, truly, sincerely believe that the policies being followed by this administration are so misguided that what you call the "worst conceivable" outcome will be the inevitable result. I have an undergraduate degree in economics, a master's degree in accounting, a law degree, and 35+ years of experience in the "real world," and there is absolutely nothing in any of that which would lead me to believe that this approach will work.

For the record, and perhaps this will dispel some of the ideologue insinuation, I agree with you that the last administration/political party proposed some similar types of solutions and those didn't work either. I think if you go to the trouble, you'll find plenty of contemporaneous posts from me attacking the same approach when it was theirs.

I think both political parties have it wrong. That's one of the reasons why I'm so pessimistic is that I think we'll simply posture and argue from partisan positions for years, rather than actually solving anything. I thought Ross Perot probably understood what was happening better than anyone (although I think his opposition to NAFTA was based more on personal wealth concerns than on sound policy principles). That was 1992, and obviously if Perot was talking about it then, then this is not a recent development (as you note). Unfortunately, little or nothing has been done to address the issues he raised then; for a really scary read, find one of his books and look at what he saw versus where we are today. As far as partisanship goes, since Perot's days we've had a republican president with a republican congress, a republican president with a democrat congress, a democrat president with a democrat congress, and a democrat president with a republican congress--and none of them have gotten anything done to reverse the slide. I thought the republican Contract with America was a good document, and obviously so did most Americans. Unfortunately, instead of following what they ran on, the republicans took on a mission to outdo the democrat abuses and excesses of power.

I'm pretty tired of both political parties. Unless the republicans give up their far right excesses, or the democrats give up their far left excesses, or somebody actually learns how to compromise, we're in for a long hard time. How long and hard? I've stated my beliefs already.

I don't see us as a nation winning anything if Obama's efforts fail. I see us losing big time if that happens. Unfortunately, I just do not see any way that it will do anything but fail.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance declined for the first time since January, and the number of initial claims fell slightly, according to government data released Thursday.

"The downshift in claims continues but progress is painfully slow," wrote Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, in a research note.

The government said 6,735,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended May 23, the most recent data available. That's a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,750,000.

The continuing claims total last declined in the week ended Jan. 3 -- a week that included the New Year's holiday. Continuing claims had hit record highs for 17 straight weeks.

The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 6,687,500, an increase of 88,750 from the week prior.

Initial claims: There were 621,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended May 30, down from an upwardly revised 625,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said. The week included the Memorial Day holiday.

Economists expected 620,000 new claims, according to a consensus survey by Briefing.com.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims was 631,250, up 4,000 from the previous week.

Claims had risen quickly since Lehman Brothers failed in September, Shepherdson noted, writing that a return to the "pre-Lehman level of 450,000 or so still seems a story for next year rather than this year."

"Feeble green shoots" in other areas of the economy "don't stop companies laying off staff, still less actually starting to hire again," he added.

State highs and lows: The largest increases for the week ended May 23, the most recent data available, were in Illinois, with 3,881; Iowa, at 2,312; South Carolina, with 1,792; Texas, at 1,548; and Wisconsin, 1,464. Those spikes were likely due to layoffs in the service and manufacturing industries, among others, the report said.

By contrast, seven states reported claims decreased by more than 1,000. North Carolina reported 3,952 fewer claims, which a state-supplied comment attributed to fewer layoffs in the construction, furniture, and transportation industries.

The national unemployment rate was 8.9% in April. A new nationwide report, for May, comes out Friday.

Wal-Mart: We're hiring 22,000

World's biggest retailer expects to add more than 1,000 jobs at new stores in several states - including California, Florida and Michigan - this year

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said Thursday that it expects to hire more than 22,000 people to staff its new or expanded domestic stores this year.

"During this difficult economic time, we're proud to be able to create quality jobs for thousands of Americans this year," Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman of Wal-Mart U.S., said in a statement.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), the world's largest retailer, had previously announced it would open 142 to 157 stores new or expanded stores in 2009, which is fewer than the total number of its new or expanded stores in 2008. The company did not specify how many stores it opened last year.

Wal-Mart added 33,000 jobs in the United States last year, according to the annual report released in April.

The company said it will add 1,000 or more workers in each of 8 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, South Carolina, Utah and Virginia.

The retailer said the new hires will fill positions across its business units, including cashiers and sales associates, as well as pharmacists, human resource managers and customer service associates.

The discounter said benefits, including health plans that offer customized health coverage options, will be offered to its full and part-time workers.

Wal-Mart is the largest private-sector employer in the United States with a workforce of 1.45 million. Its total worldwide workforce is more than 2 million.

WalMart doesn't surprise me. I think retail may actually do okay, at least in the short run. Manufacturing is where I see problems. When the full brunt of Obamanomics is in place, the USA is going to be a particularly unattractive place to make anything, except for a limited number of products intended solely for the US consumer market. You wouldn't want to make anything for export, and if you have overseas operations you won't want your headquarters to be here. If anyone can explain how that won't be an economic disaster, I'd like to hear it.