(05-05-2020 07:29 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 02:57 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(05-04-2020 05:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  With the onset of the reality of living with COVID 19 dynamics may change. If we do emphasize playing a more local schedule, if the SEC's new contract does put it in the upper 60 million per school in payout range, and if ESPN and Texas continue their standoff on Horn movement, then the fortunes of the present ACC might indeed change again.

What we know:

1. Texas prefers to keep things together in the Big 12 and prefers keeping Oklahoma close. In the new dynamic travel to Big 10 or PAC destinations seems even more unrealistic than they did in December of 2019.

2. ESPN has shown no indication of being willing to let Texas go.

3. The Big 10 renews their contract in 2024 and will likely be making within the range of the new SEC contract.

4. The ACC is still stuck until 2037 with an inferior media payout and the ACCN couldn't have gotten off to a worse start amid the virus outbreak. Still it will likely earn them enough to stay ahead of the PAC but behind the Big 12 in payouts.

5. ESPN really doesn't want to place large states solidly in the hands of a particular conference and prefers to be able to access very large markets through multiple conferences under their control. It is their way of trying in multiple regions to the largest markets.

So in light of these considerations lets assume that ESPN at least has doubts about the ability of the ACC to maximize their investment and that they are faced now with a Texas which will dig its heels in about staying put more than ever considering the new reality and its issues with travel

How do you accommodate UT's wishes, maximize revenues without conceding control of large market states to one conference, and increase your inventory? Well first you look at which properties within each conference are the value bringers, particularly in football.

The Big 12 has two top 7 programs. The ACC has 1 and that one is there in part due to the buyout of Fisher's contract and large one time donations. Beyond that they have one other top 20 program. The SEC has 6 of the top 12 programs in the nation. We aren't hurting. The Big 10 has 4 of the top 12. The PAC has 1 in the top 20 and in the new reality they are as isolated as ever.

ESPN pays Texas 15 million a year on average to hold onto them. How can they continue to do that without having them playing more brands that can multiply their value? They can't. Something has to give.

It won't be the SEC which is the most valuable college sports product available to the networks. It likely won't be Texas whose only reasonable destination is the SEC, and then likely with Oklahoma, which would totally tilt the value table of the P5.

If keeping things relatively local is important, if balance in value and competition is preferred, and if profits from existing rights are to be maximized what can accomplish all of these objectives?

Well the weakest link in the ACC. They have valuable parts but don't function particularly well as a whole.

These in ascending order are the least valuable programs as a football product in the ACC:
1. Duke $67,505,331
2. Wake Forest $76,590,240
3. Boston College $81,051,159
4. Pittsburgh $112,942,437
5. Syracuse $121,057,725
6. Virginia $134,926,313

The ACC Average Value is $169,926,416 so all of these schools are below the ACC's average value and are dragging down the overall value of the other schools.

In the SEC the two lowest valuations are those of Vanderbilt $81,494,537 and Missouri $122,333,162.

These 6 schools are at or above the value levels of the schools in the Big 12 not named Texas and Oklahoma:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. Virginia Tech
4. Georgia Tech
5. Miami
6. N.C. State
7. Louisville

So if you are ESPN you have these strong personalities to deal with in the ACC: North Carolina, Virginia, and Duke all with stellar academic ability, long standing basketball clout, strong political ties, but little baseline football values.

You have the schools listed above with little value to either the Big 10 or SEC but which had their greatest value when part of the old Big East: Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse.

You also have the Research Triangle relationships that the State of North Carolina will want to keep together.

So lets start with the enhancement of the Big 12:

The product which adds value to there conference would be:
Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, and sans N.C. State which needs to stay with Duke and North Carolina, Louisville.

The Big 12 if it is in ESPN's hands could be enhanced in value and branding this way:
Iowa State, Louisville, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Baylor, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would love to have a presence in North Carolina, but they would love 3 schools from North Carolina. But they would love to improve both their hoops and academic profile. But how do you fit in 3 schools?

1. Vanderbilt the least valuable SEC product and one facing space problems on campus, and which doesn't have a desire to go all in with football agrees to become the first SEC partial. This opens room for Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State.

2. Duke agrees to become the partial for football, Vanderbilt remains as is and North Carolina and N.C. State join in full.

So the SEC might look like this:
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Tennessee
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
*Vanderbilt or Duke as a partial

Now for the cost of this move:

ESPN gives up the pursuit of Notre Dame in order to get and keep all of Texas and Oklahoma. They only really lose 5 games every two years from the Irish so this is a no brainer. Virginia is a high profile top flite academic stalwart. The Big 10 would love a presence in that state and have always coveted Notre Dame who takes double the money with the breakup of the ACC which was going to be inevitable at some point in the future due to the disparity of revenue.

The rest:
Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse rejoin the Big East in all sports but Football where they join UConn as Northeastern independents. Wake either joins them, or works out a deal as a partial with the SEC.

The Big 10 becomes this:
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia
Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Rutgers
Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin
Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern

The PAC remains as is.

If Notre Dame balks and seeks to remain a partial perhaps they do so in the Big 12. In that case Missouri joins Virginia in the Big 10. Virginia Tech takes Missouri's place in the SEC and B.Y.U. joins the Big 12. The divisions wouldn't be as clean but the moves still work.

SEC:
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Big 10:
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern

Big 12:
Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, West Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Brigham Young, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
* Notre Dame as a partial

Working with the NC schools is what makes this possibility so interesting. They have a desire to stay together, but a divergence in priority.

I could see Vanderbilt either dropping football or completely de-emphasizing it. Wake Forest is in that boat too. If the Research Triangle wants to move here in unison then Wake might as well stick with them. If Vandy is interested too then that evens the numbers.

Here's the deal, if you have Kansas and Missouri head to the Big 10 so the SEC can take in Va Tech for the markets and a solid sports school, and if Vanderbilt and Wake were willing to be partials then this would work quite nicely:

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M
*Vanderbilt, *Wake Forest

But to make it work without issue Vandy and Wake would have to agree to 1/2 voting status. There's no way the SEC agrees to let UNC bring a voting block which with just North Carolina school support could block the rest the of the conference wanting to accomplish something. That's one thing that has plagued the ACC.

Carolina's perk is getting to include all of their buds.

I've always liked Virginia Tech although if we're taking the NC 4 then I would just assume not allow anyone to leave from the West because those schools would have no motivation to side with UNC. The Mid-Atlantic schools might have more of an affinity.

Or we could do this...

Add the Research Triangle...add Wake Forest as a partial. Move Vanderbilt to partial membership.

Then...

Add Tulane and Tulsa as partials. They would probably be perfectly happy with a few guaranteed football games and SEC membership in the other sports. There's a chance Vandy and Wake might not drop football, but just de-emphasize it if they could still play a few conference mates every year.