Big 10:
Gross Total Revenue: $2,097,282,913
Average Per School: $149,805,922
Total Attendance: 924,870
Average Attendance: 66,062
Adjusted for Their Recent 4 Additions:
Total Attendance: 1,148,733
Average: 63,819




SEC:
Gross Total Revenue: $2,172,457,645
Average Per School: $155,175,546
Total Attendance: 1,071,596


Average Attendance: 76,543
Adjusted for Additions:
Total: 1,255,673
Average: 78,480

If you account for the difference in the Big 10 and SEC's projected income for 2024, and account for the difference in the ACC's last reported gross revenue (2021-22) which schools would come in above those conferences' average payouts if they joined?

Big 10 estimated payout 80 million.
SEC estimated payout 75 million.
ACC payout in 2022: 39.97 million

Big 10 estimated for 2024 80 million - 39.97 million = 40.03 plus ACC revenue for 2022.

SEC estimated for 2024 75 million - 39.97 million = 35.03 plus ACC revenue for 2022

These schools would exceed the average Big 10 value if the media rights money variance is adjusted to Big 10 levels:
ACC:
1. Florida State
2. Duke (virtually a wash)

Big 12:
None

PAC 12:
None remaining. Oregon missed by $10,000,000.


These schools would exceed the average SEC revenue if the media money revenue level was adjusted to SEC levels.

ACC:
1. Florida State

Big 12:
None

PAC 12:
None

The other schools are below the adjusted average for revenue production in the Big 10 and in the SEC.


Other factors for the Big 10 to consider if making additions: New Market exceeding 5 million in population. AAU membership:
1. Miami or Florida State 22 million
2. North Carolina 11 million
Georgia Tech 11 million
4 Virginia 9 million

Other factors for the SEC: New Markets / Large Market Defense
1. Florida State and/or Miami
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia or Virginia Tech
4. Georgia Tech (maybe)
5. Kansas (possibly)


Consensus for the Big 10:
1. Florida State
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Georgia Tech
5. Duke
6. Miami

Consensus for the SEC:
1. Florida State
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia / Virginia Tech
4. Kansas
5. Miami
6. Georgia Tech
7. Possibly Clemson or Duke

*Bolded would earn a full share on strength of revenue production alone.
**Underlined would earn possibly a full share for market value plus earning potential based upon branding.


These are based upon earnings, new markets, and branding. The WSJ valuations which are strong indicators of the ability of a school to economically impact its region are not part of this.

It should be interesting to all that Florida State is the only addition which can pay its way into either conferences. Duke potentially offers the Big 10 a pro rata addition. The rest seems to come down to markets, for both the SEC and Big 10, as well as ESPN and FOX.