(07-01-2018 01:39 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It has been my contention since the start of this thread a few years ago that ESPN would utilize the SEC as a safety net for ACC product they wanted to keep.

However, now that the market model is not the driving pay model, but rather content, I believe who they might choose to save to gut the ACC of value might be different.

I don't think ultimately they would care about Virginia. What of sports value is there? They might want to save Virginia Tech but look at their WSJ valuation numbers as compared to other Big 12 and ACC properties.

I do believe that ESPN would love to salvage UNC and Duke for hoops value and they would certainly bolster Kentucky's value and vice versa. Florida State and Clemson would be effectively gutting the football content of the ACC and then multiplying their value by placing them in the SEC where they immediately multiply the nation's must see TV.

I don't think they would care to hold onto Pitt, Syracuse and B.C. and therefore they may be willing to simply let N.D. slide. Louisville will find a home elsewhere and Kentucky doesn't want them.

Georgia Tech barely carries 50% of Atlanta. Georgia carries 85% of the state. N.C. State could be a price for landing UNC and Duke. Toss in Miami to keep the Big 10 out of Florida and there's your new 6.

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Miami, Clemson and Florida State.

So if 20 is your game those may be the schools.

But if Texas wants not to move, since OU couldn't take OSU with them to the Big 10 I think that whole deal fails.

I think the Big 10 moves on Northeastern Consolidation and that they take Virginia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pitt and possibly B.C. but more for hockey than football.

Boston College, Maryland, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

That potentially sets up a quarter final round of Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin.

That's a sound alignment for the Big 10.

The SEC can work one too!

Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina

Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

That's a really strong SEC set up.

Clemson, anyone from the Atlantic South, Alabama, L.S.U./A&M sets up a really sound quarter final for the SEC.

I think that SEC lineup gives ESPN the very best of the ACC with SEC content values.

Louisville joins the Big 12 and Georgia Tech joins the AAC. Wake is out.

Cincinnati, Brigham Young and Colorado State join the Big 12 with Louisville.

That puts them at 14 and expands them into Kentucky, Ohio, Colorado and Utah for the conversion of the LHN to a network. Maybe they add the Florida twins for market to make 16.

At that point the PAC 12 might take the best four from the MWC and call it a day.

Now the P4 stands at 72.

If ESPN can hold Texas in place with Oklahoma and they buyout the FOX share of the Big 12 and convert the LHN then they hold 30 to 36 of the best product in the Southeast and Southwest and might even be able to work toward a league.

Why do this? They aren't risking Texas and OU and they are protecting the best value of the ACC. For them that's a big win win while shedding most of the lesser value product of the ACC.

I think that's a solid 20.

I'm not so sure ESPN would abandon the VA schools though. There tend to be some good rates of college football consumption in that market even if the quality of content is not always top notch. Virginia Tech especially is a program with pretty good potential. They've come a long way in the last 30 years. Put a bunch of other solid programs on their schedule and I think their value increases.

UVA will probably never have a great football program, but the 2 schools together pull a lot of numbers between DC and the other cities in VA.

Georgia Tech is a weaker brand although they have history with the old core of the SEC so between that and proximity, I think most of their match-ups would garner good fan interest. Actually, I could see the B1G making a play for them even though the geography would be odd to say the least. The Big 12 might be interested at the very least. How many other options would that league have? And what happens if the GA Legislature steps in?

The whole thing would be a little bit of a quandary. I could see the B1G taking Syracuse and Boston College because of the access to new markets. Neither addition would be ideal though since they're both private. Notre Dame is a no-brainer, but I'm not sure Pittsburgh gives them anything. It's a middling brand in a pro sports town located in a state owned by Penn State. The B1G might very well be interested in both VA schools although they would crave access to NC as well.

Louisville would be a better fit in the Big 12. I think the same for Pittsburgh.

I think you could squeeze 10 into the SEC if you fudged a little bit. The dynamics might make ESPN interested in altering their valuations. Would it be worth it to them to protect 10 ACC schools? I think that would be the pivotal question.