(07-01-2018 12:12 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-30-2018 08:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-30-2018 08:14 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-30-2018 06:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  **********************************************************************

Well in light of the most recent economic data, and due to the growing disparity between the total revenue of the ACC and SEC (approaching 43 million per school on average) and that between the ACC and Big 10 (approaching 27 million per school on average), I thought maybe it might be fun during the slow times to resurrect this thread.

For those new to the thread refer to the following data when making posts so that the information we are working with is current:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-852566.html

I think about it this way...

Who wants out of the ACC? Well, Maryland and Florida State were the ones that didn't agree to raising the exit fee a few years ago.

Now obviously FSU signed the GOR, but their President at the time might very well have been disinterested in their long term future or afraid to make any bold decisions if he wasn't going to be around long enough to see it through. That and ESPN would have raised hell if we took them.

How about this?

Take Florida State and West Virginia.

The ACC gets Texas and a friend. Notre Dame goes all in.

The B1G gets Oklahoma and Kansas

Everybody should be happy.

That's pretty solid. How about this.

The SEC adds Florida State and T.C.U. doubling down in their largest two markets with quality sports additions for the big 3 sports.

West Virginia takes F.S.U.'s place in the ACC and renews rivalries with Virginia Tech, Miami, Pitt, and Syracuse. Texas joins as a partial only for football and parks their non revenue sports in the AAC (ESPN owned) where their non revs raise the TV payouts for the AAC.

The Big 10 gets Kansas and Oklahoma and the Sooners depart into the North and diminish.

The PAC if it wants central time zone slots can pick up a presence in 4 states with Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.

********************************************************************

But I go back to thinking about what actually may transpire if the revenue of the ACC remains so very behind everyone else who is nearby them.

Virginia, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and N.C. State to the Big 10.

North Carolina, Duke, Florida State and Clemson to the SEC.

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse join Iowa State and West Virginia in the Big 12 North.

Georgia Tech and Miami join the Big 12 south with the 4 Texas Schools. The travel isn't an issue because both are air travel hubs.

Colorado State and Brigham Young join the Big 12 Central with Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

The PAC if it wishes to expand can take the best of the MWC.

SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Big 10:

Maryland, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Big 12:

Boston College, Iowa State, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Colorado State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Baylor, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

I think if we were taking more than 2 from the East then we might as well go to 20. There's a lot of options and a lot of rivalries to maintain.

But...

I don't know that the Big 12 will survive even if the ACC goes away. I could still see Oklahoma bolting for the Big Ten even if they can secure a couple of pieces from the ACC region. Texas could still go to the PAC or maybe even choose the SEC if the money is big enough.

If the ACC revenues don't get a serious boost within the next few years then certain schools will clamor to get out and ESPN may accommodate by helping them into the SEC.

I think ESPN's preference, however, would be to keep the ACC viable which is why I suggested moving Texas in while allowing only Florida State to leave. That way, the network has control over at least 2 leagues with disparate priorities and contract schedules. Put the best products from the ACC into the SEC and ESPN loses some leverage at the negotiating table.

I think what could light a fire under ESPN and make them alter their priorities is if there was a realistic chance of losing some of those schools to the Big Ten. All of a sudden, now it's a matter of preservation rather than maximizing profit.

I don't think ESPN would try to lure the B1G back into the fold with the promise of some key additions from the ACC. For one, the B1G would never allow the bulk of their quality content to remain with one network. They seem to have developed a disdain for ESPN's M.O. Second, even if the B1G gave a more favorable contract to ESPN there's no guarantee it would last. The very next contract could see the B1G abandon ESPN altogether and the network would have lost some valuable content for their trouble. It's a very risky proposition to trade properties for short term contracts.

I think this possibility would lead ESPN to try to move as many strong properties into the SEC as would be viable. I'm not even sure it would be a money question at that point. If the SEC received other perks for taking in a few extra schools then perhaps it would be worth expanding beyond 20. Or perhaps ESPN would offer a large number of schools as a package deal. The SEC might have to take them all in order to get the type of raise they desire.

I do like the SEC's positioning though.

It has been my contention since the start of this thread a few years ago that ESPN would utilize the SEC as a safety net for ACC product they wanted to keep.

However, now that the market model is not the driving pay model, but rather content, I believe who they might choose to save to gut the ACC of value might be different.

I don't think ultimately they would care about Virginia. What of sports value is there? They might want to save Virginia Tech but look at their WSJ valuation numbers as compared to other Big 12 and ACC properties.

I do believe that ESPN would love to salvage UNC and Duke for hoops value and they would certainly bolster Kentucky's value and vice versa. Florida State and Clemson would be effectively gutting the football content of the ACC and then multiplying their value by placing them in the SEC where they immediately multiply the nation's must see TV.

I don't think they would care to hold onto Pitt, Syracuse and B.C. and therefore they may be willing to simply let N.D. slide. Louisville will find a home elsewhere and Kentucky doesn't want them.

Georgia Tech barely carries 50% of Atlanta. Georgia carries 85% of the state. N.C. State could be a price for landing UNC and Duke. Toss in Miami to keep the Big 10 out of Florida and there's your new 6.

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Miami, Clemson and Florida State.

So if 20 is your game those may be the schools.

But if Texas wants not to move, since OU couldn't take OSU with them to the Big 10 I think that whole deal fails.

I think the Big 10 moves on Northeastern Consolidation and that they take Virginia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pitt and possibly B.C. but more for hockey than football.

Boston College, Maryland, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

That potentially sets up a quarter final round of Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin.

That's a sound alignment for the Big 10.

The SEC can work one too!

Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina

Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

That's a really strong SEC set up.

Clemson, anyone from the Atlantic South, Alabama, L.S.U./A&M sets up a really sound quarter final for the SEC.

I think that SEC lineup gives ESPN the very best of the ACC with SEC content values.

Louisville joins the Big 12 and Georgia Tech joins the AAC. Wake is out.

Cincinnati, Brigham Young and Colorado State join the Big 12 with Louisville.

That puts them at 14 and expands them into Kentucky, Ohio, Colorado and Utah for the conversion of the LHN to a network. Maybe they add the Florida twins for market to make 16.

At that point the PAC 12 might take the best four from the MWC and call it a day.

Now the P4 stands at 72.

If ESPN can hold Texas in place with Oklahoma and they buyout the FOX share of the Big 12 and convert the LHN then they hold 30 to 36 of the best product in the Southeast and Southwest and might even be able to work toward a league.

Why do this? They aren't risking Texas and OU and they are protecting the best value of the ACC. For them that's a big win win while shedding most of the lesser value product of the ACC.