(11-21-2014 09:19 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I agree with you on the PAC academics. There are not enough good candidates in the west to be that picky about it. I think they eventually bend a lot on that, just like the ACC eventually did to add UL.

I first suggested a 3 x 20 model a little over 2 years ago. It was the PAC dilemma that necessitated it. They have no viable expansion candidates outside of B.Y.U. So where do you go? The SEC wanted markets in Texas and on the East coast. The Big 10 wanted them down the populated Eastern seaboard as well. So the lack of candidates for the PAC coupled with the two strongest conferences' desires indicated (as has realignment) that two conferences were on the menu, not just the weaker of the two.

Then watching ESPN shore up former Big East schools, pool them in the ACC which happens to be the only conference whose rights are 100% owned by 1 network, and then watch the Mouse sign sweetheart deals with Texas and Kansas and it was clear, at least to me, what they were doing. They were sewing up all of the future realignment commodities so that they could leverage them to their advantage when they brokered out the final realignment. The vast majority of that property is tied up until 2021-2025, and Texas until 2031. That tells me that most of the major realignment will likely occur prior to the midpoint of those contracts. The longer ESPN waits after that the less leverage they will have. And by sewing up the Horns for a decade longer they keep the biggest bull from busting up their china shop.

If the PAC sells a percentage of their network to help with distribution and ESPN gets that action then Texas and 7 others to the PAC would accomplish 2 things for ESPN. It gives them access to the PAC property for many years to come, and it forces the Big 10 and SEC to expand out of the ACC, and guess who owns all of that? Both the Big 10 and SEC would have jumped all over Oklahoma and Texas and probably Kansas as well. Somewhat sated and bulked up they would have been less likely to take the requisite number of ACC schools necessary to dissolve that conference. But, that isn't an issue if the bulk of the Big 12 moves West.

The SEC can't cry and moan because ESPN gave them a Western boundary and two large markets in Missouri and Texas A&M. And that boundary is very clear. Delany can't gripe much either. He got Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland, a western football brand, an eastern football brand, and two great markets. If the Big 10 renews its ESPN T1 contract then the table is set for a 3 x 20. The Carolina and Virginia markets are divided between the two best drawing conferences. Brands from the Northeast and New England consolidate the Big 10's markets and brands from the South consolidate the SEC and both sets of schools are worth more in their new conference homes because their added content and the better utilization of their markets. Just as surely as a Texas based conference was no longer the best utilization of properties and markets so too is the North Carolina based conference. Only with the Carolina based conference, the main emphasis is not even the most profitable sport. I don't think it an accident that sins in the closet at Chapel Hill are only being aired at such a crucial point. It's like having the goods on a politician. If he or she does your bidding you hold that leverage in reserve. If they rebel against your influence you use it to remind them who it is that is really in control. That heat, plus their disparate cultures in the ACC, are the detonator and combustibles necessary to blow them apart. Anyway that's the way I see it. And as a corporate for profit business ESPN will act in its self interest. It's going to be fun to watch how it all plays out. We'll see.