(09-05-2014 06:17 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(09-05-2014 03:29 AM)JRsec Wrote:  I think disparity in income is the new carrot with which to entice the final moves. We'll see.

Possibly, but since the ACC is owned by ESPN, the Mouse might feel inclined to keep the ACC within range of the SEC and B1G just on general principle. Its a move not without precedent as intervention from FOX and the WWL is the sole reason why the B12 still exists. I'm sure ESPN knows better than us any SEC---> ACC movement would bring into question the latter's stability and it is doubtful that ESPN could find a home for all 14 schools. And lets face it, an ACC addition only benefits to SEC in areas that are ancillary to play on the field.

If any conference is going away its definitely going to be the B12. Less members to disperse, the opportunity to do so is right around the corner, has the weaker brand and the logistics are easier for the rest of the P4 to swallow.

I certainly understand your point of view and consider that angle frequently. However if ESPN could lock down a long term T1 agreement with the Big 10 and gain scheduling concessions from the SEC, then those properties held in the ESPN repository of desirable realignment prospects would earn them a lot more money when paired with the two most viewed conferences.

And please don't misconstrue self interest with charity towards either the ACC or Big 12. The Big 12 was rescued by FOX and ESPN because both had a stake in those properties and neither owns any rights to the properties in the PAC. There was no way either of those networks were going to let the PAC acquire worthwhile targets in the Big 12 unless the PAC agreed to sell a % of its rights to one or both of them. It was simply a preemptive protection of property and leverage.

Ditto for the ACC. When did the ACC acquire Pitt and Syracuse? And when did they acquire Miami and Virginia Tech along with B.C.? After the trend of conversations and negotiations with Delany started turning sour and after Aresco thought he could milk more for the Big East. ESPN realized that the only way the BTN would hit big time numbers was with Eastern markets. They also realized that the football products of the Big East were the most profitable properties. So again a preemptive move of gross self interest took place. This time it was disguised as ACC expansion, but the B.C. president spilled the beans on who was really in control, and it wasn't the ACC. Since ESPN owned the ACC lock stock and barrel there was no safer place to park their newly acquired properties than in the ACC where ESPN has kept the payout low.

So over almost about a decade they land the most valuable first Miami, Boston College (which at the time was coming off the Flutie high) and Virginia Tech (which itself was riding a crest of football prominence). When Delany told them he could do a network on his own it was time to lock down Pitt and Syracuse (both at the time of the rift were AAU). So the gears started turning on that deal too.

So here we stand with both the SEC and Big 10 wanting North Carolina and Virginia markets and who holds the deeds in football monopoly? ESPN

The Big 10 wants a presence in New England and the Northeast and who holds the deeds? ESPN

The PAC still wants Texas and Oklahoma, and the Big 10 and SEC would like them as well, and maybe Kansas too and who holds the deeds? ESPN more so on Texas and Kansas and Fox more so on Oklahoma.

The PAC doesn't get any of them unless they sell a % of their network to the Corporate Networks. The Big 10 is over a barrel. They can have UConn, but nobody to go with them unless ESPN is appeased.

The SEC can't just take who they want because ESPN holds the purse strings and concessions on the number of conference games and the number of P5's played won't just happen unless ESPN leverages them with markets and brand names to which they hold the deeds.

It is about the networks and has been since day 1 of this round of realignment. 6 to the Big 10, 6 to the SEC, and 8 to the PAC are all that is needed to dissolve both the Big 12 and ACC and ESPN holds the keys to all but 1 of the major properties. You tell me who is in control?

We wait while we find out if the PAC will sell a %, if the Big 10 renews T1 rights with ESPN, and if the SEC agrees to 9 conference games and only P5 schools for competition, or at least a gradual annual move towards such along with the other conferences. Quid Pro Quo is to enhance the commercial value of every weekend so that the Mouse lives large.

And yes the moves would make them more even if the payouts are larger because the exposure to a higher percentage of the total market and the content will make it so, and in the process 4 duds for television might get trimmed. Which four depends on what gets accomplished and with which conference.

Oh well something to wait and watch and ponder.

And PS there is some added complexity even beyond that as there could be some pieces still moved around within the existing P structure.