(08-12-2014 05:50 PM)IR4CU Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:22 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm far from a pro-ACC person. However, I think we undervalue the desire of the core schools to stick together no matter what. I regard three schools as truly core: UVA, Duke and UNC. Wake is also a player in this group. Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt and Louisville, being newbies who had no guarantee of safety beyond the ACC, will also stick to this group. Notre Dame will hang with them just to avoid The Worst Fate That Could Befall Man (or TWFTCBM, for short ). So that's 9 that I count as likely to hang together. So who do that leaves:

Maryland - already switched to the Big Ten. Was considered an outlier while in the ACC

Clemson - another founding member but also one with a large number of fans only focused on football, which clashes with the interests of admins and other officials who want a more well-rounded AD

Florida State - a relative newcomer with similar issues as Clemson, a proven football power who had been in the shadow of UF until recently

Miami - was known for its baseball until those Hurricane football teams in the 80s. Private school profile make it more likely to stick to UVA-Duke-UNC group

Georgia Tech - former SEC school who would stick to the UVA-Duke-UNC group because of academics

NC State - UNC system bylaws make it difficult for them to move but potential for an A&M-type break is there for them, if they can seize it

Virginia Tech - state politics assured them a seat at the table but would they even move up further?

The way I see it is this: they already share six states with other conferences and, yet, manage to compete. What would sharing two more do to hurt more?

If there is one school that I could defend breaking the AAU seal for it is VT. They have a profile that is similar to several Big Ten school like Purdue. Their research numbers are pretty good for a non-AAU school. If they can stay in the top fifty then I think that they can fit. As well, they help solidify the DMV footprint for markets and recruiting. I think they're AAU-in-waiting.

I know both SEC and Big Ten want those two states but may end up splitting them. The Old North State would be open to you. Unless you somehow pry both UNC/Duke you may end up having to take #16 from elsewhere. There's none better than FSU. It helps with Tier 1 and makes sure that there's no better football league in the South.

How would the ACC look like after? Well, it would still have the core schools (unless the SEC convinced the Heels to jump but let's say it's the Wolfpack): VA,NC,Duke,Cuse,Pitt,Louisville,Miami,GT,Clemson,Wake,BC. That's still a decent league. One add would be UCF, which a fast-growing school in a city with not much pro competition (no NFL, no MLB). That helps address the Florida access. Football program rising, while still young. On campus stadium a big plus. Basketball needs work but that wouldn't be an issue here. 12 would be a good number but if they need more numbers then Cincy is available. I would think ND still sticks with them, as they still want those markets, plus playing in Orlando would be very appealing to them.

Sometimes money isn't everything and the core ACC schools sticking together would prove it.

I agree that Clemson is divided - most fans would rather be in the SEC while most of the faculty/admin would prefer to stay in the ACC. However, if the ACC morphed into the league you have listed above, I doubt that Clemson would willingly stay if they had any other options. The financial divide between them and South Carolina would be too great and the hit they would take from a recruiting standpoint would be substantial. I think admin and athletic dept heads would roll if they willing chose to stay in this reconfigured ACC and the admins and athletic dept folks are savvy enough to know this.

When realignment is over and the "footprint" model has done its job, Networks will likely use saturation statistics to apportion market shares rather than continuing to pay two or more conferences full money for 1 state. When that happens the conferences that have both expanded footprint and consolidated key states will have the leverage.

It is for that reason that the SEC should absolutely take Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson. North Carolina has too many schools to try to saturate their market and the culture of Virginia is too stratified now to call it truly Southern. Taking Virginia Tech and a North Carolina school is all the SEC needs to do there. Splitting those states will be more efficient than trying to saturate them. But in the Southeast where the SECN will be receiving $1.40 per household holding the SECN tier package it will be essential to achieve that saturation. Florida State and Clemson are important for several reasons. They are simply the two most SEC like schools outside of the SEC. So for brand protection they are important. They also have the highest attendance for all ACC schools. Cutting off any desire for the Big 10 to encroach below North Carolina is also essential for the SEC. Georgia Tech, Clemson, and F.S.U. create a barrier that puts Miami on an island and as a small private school on an island I doubt the Big 10 would come calling. Solid SEC states would then be South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri. We would only share markets of any size in Texas, Kentucky, and North Carolina and Virginia. In other words we would only truly share our borders.

Owning the most supportive region of the country to college sports, it's most attentive audience, and its best recruiting grounds would then cement SEC leverage for a long time to come.