(02-10-2020 04:43 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote: Consider this scenario: Both UT and OU agree that the Big 12 can no longer be viable long term. So at the end of the grant of Rights they agree to split up "assets" from the conference. Both agree that OU can not take the second school from their state with them to their conference of choice. So UT agree to take that school in. Same happens in the state of Kansas. Therefore, KU and OU join together and join the SEC. UT and "friends" head to the Pac12.
1. Does the Big 10 still hold out for ND and agree to pair them with, say, Iowa State?
2. Would the Pac12 still take UT with the "detritus" from the Big 12?
If Oklahoma and Kansas join the SEC the SEC would feel like they were done. They would however have gained a leg up on content over the Big 10. I don't see how the Big 10 can stand by in that regard.
So yes I think they make overtures to Notre Dame. But I don't see them pairing Iowa State with them. Colorado would be free to move if they haven't signed a new GOR. With the Denver market available and the media revenue twice as much in the Big 10 I would think that a play for Colorado and Notre Dame would trump a play for Iowa State paired with the same.
That makes things interesting for Texas to the PAC. Theoretically that means 5 Big 12 schools could make the move, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech make the move to the PAC which moves to 16 schools.
West Virginia and T.C.U. move to the ACC.
The PAC picks up 2 AAU schools with goliath Texas and Iowa State. Texas Tech is not a bad add. Kansas State's academics aren't bad. Only Oklahoma State would draw a raised brow.
Tech slips into Colorado's slot and Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State become part of a quad.
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Utah
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas
They play the 3 in their division and 2 each from the other 3 divisions for a total of 9 conference games. They rotate through the conference every 2 years.
That solves the 2nd school issue for the Big 10 should Colorado go for the stability and money. It satisfies the SEC And it builds up the PAC. If the ACC adds T.C.U. and West Virginia to 16 should either B.C. or Wake opt out with pay for play Baylor is waiting in the wings.
But if Colorado isn't interested then the Big 10 will likely go after Virginia with Notre Dame. If Va Tech stays in the ACC at that point maybe that stabilizes things. If North Carolina wants out too for enhanced revenue then we are off to races as the SEC would start thinking of adding schools to defend its footprint. I think that's where the danger of moving to 2 leagues comes into play.
BTW: If the PAC was able to secure a major brand and 2 schools from a state of 28 million to help their sagging market penetration, and add 3 more states also in a different time zone in which to market their games, I think they would take other schools and really Iowa State and KState aren't detritus. They stand to gain a lot by taking OSU.