(12-28-2019 12:09 AM)JRsec Wrote: Well apparently ABC is going to win the bid on the SEC's T1 revenue and CCG. The reported amount will be no less than 350 million with 2 sources thinking it may in the final form approach 400 million. At 350 million. At 350 million it will increase the SEC's per team payout by 19.7 million. For 2018 that total was 43.7 million. 46 million is a good estimate of this year's possible payout. So roughly by 2024 the SEC would be making more than 66 million per school in payouts.
That's a significant raise and the addition of Texas and Oklahoma could put that total just north of 70 million by 2026. The question is will this be the amount it takes to make Oklahoma say yes, and force Texas to consider coming with them?
What if Oklahoma still insists on Oklahoma State and Texas shows interest? Do we dare go to 18 and pick up Kansas as well? At one time the Texa-homa concept included Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. At that level of pay would, or even could we, take an Oklahoma State?
If creating a conference with an enhanced academic profile is a strong consideration would it not be best to take Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma and add 3 AAU schools to the SEC bringing our total to 7 and eclipsing the ACC's total of AAU members in the process?
Is expanding by 4 worth losing that extra 5 million payout for say a more modest increase of 2 million with the additions if they met other needs?
Obviously we should make a play for just 2 schools. But if both Texas and Oklahoma had interest but only if OSU, or even OSU and Tech were involved should we do it?
I look at it this way. With Texas and Oklahoma our economic impact valuation goes from 7.5 billion to 9..5 billion. The best the Big 10 could hope for would be to move from 5.5 billion to 6.8 billion if they added Notre Dame and either North Carolina or Virginia. So the move would lock the SEC in the top slot without any chance of being eclipsed.
It would take us close enough to 70 million that with escalators we should stay a few million ahead of the Big 10 from there on out.
Oklahoma and Texas have solid followings and SEC sized crowds in attendance. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech do not.
Personally I think the move, even with tag-alongs would be prudent because it essentially ends any chance that another conference can surpass our economic strength and since we have the hammer on recruiting territory it pretty well cinches our positions.
That said if we can't just add two, I would prefer to see us go for the academic enhancement.
If Texas insists on Texas Tech do you think we would be better off with simply Oklahoma and Kansas provided OU doesn't have to stay tethered to OSU?
I keep coming back to what Mike Slive said when asked how big can the SEC be? And he said our size was only limited by profit.
What are your thoughts? Jahawkmvp seems to think that 4 might be a winning offer. Some of you have favored going larger. So keeping this discussion just to the Big 12 possibilities what do you think and why?
And whether your preference is 16 or 18 (no 20's at this time as it would be impractical at the monetary levels) and assuming that we do not yet have division less formats to utilize, what would be your preferred configuration? 2x9, or 3x 6 if we could get a waiver?
With the data from this site on football and basketball evaluation, Kansas St would bring more to the table than OK St, which surprised me. Texas Tech's numbers were alot lower than both, however, the data was from 2016 before their final four run. I doubt however that even several years of final four runs would be worth enough to bring it up to match Kansas St/OK St. I had also been wondering about TCU as an alternative to Tech, but they do not bring enough either. WVU is clearly out as is Baylor (though Baylor vs. TN women's basketball could be fun).
If we had to take four from the Big 12 Texas, OK, Kansas and KS St. would be the top four based on sheer valuation. But I don't hear many proposals of KSU to the SEC.
I do think ISU would be a cultural fit even if a geographical oddity. Texas, OK, Kansas and Iowa St would bring 3 new states (total population: approximately $10 million), and whatever Texas brings. It would bring 3 new AAU programs (as mentioned above) and would also create some solid intra and extraconference matchups.
Texas, OK, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Arkansas
Texas A&M, LSU, Miss. St., Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn
Florida, Georgia, TN, KY, Vandy, South Carolina
I'll suggest a 5-3-1 model based on the NFL (which the SEC will hate, but hey its my formula)
5 division games
3 against half of another division on a rotating basis
1 either protected rivalry (UT-Bama, Auburn-Georgia, Texas-A&M if they can play nice OR play team ranked in the same spot as you were in the previous year from 3rd division; everyone gets bumped down one spot if the protected rivals are division winners).
I'm living in Missouri right now, so I really would love to see Kansas in the SEC - their basketball alone is worth more than some football programs (also, if we are moving toward more brand based realignment, I wonder if a school like Duke would have more value, but thats ACC, and a much later shift).
I also hear only good things about the ISU fanbase - travel's well, supports the program, etc.
That being said, I doubt these four get taken. I actually think that the Big 10 takes Texas and Iowa St. - ISU is doubles a market but is AAU and draws firms up the border between Big 10 and SEC, and would be middle of the pack in the Big 10 in terms of valuation, right between Minnesota and Indiana. That leaves OK and Kansas for the SEC.
OK, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St.
Alabama, Auburn, TN, Georgia, Vandy, Florida, USC, KY
7-2 format, play your division, with no need for protected rivalries, and play 2 others. could also do 4-4 and do 3-4-2 (your division, one other division, and 2 from the other division that finished in same place in standings, as above with protected rivalries).
Yes, this splits OK from OK St AND from Texas. That would mean 11 P5 games if the Big 12 backfilled.