(11-25-2023 10:33 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Truth is more appealing than fiction. The conferences set parameters. The networks drive realignment. ESPN stood back as FOX took what it wanted from the PAC 12. They did so because Texas and Oklahoma needed an amicable settlement to leave early and FOX held the key. Whether ESPN incentivized Yormark to offer his own incentive to Colorado to get the finishing off of the PAC 12 underway or not remains in the realm of suspicion. It is fairly clear that the additions Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and B.Y.U. coupled with Texas and Oklahoma's cooperation on that matter was the beginning of the process. This process is now repeated in the ACC with the additions of Cal, Stanford, and S.M.U. I don't think those get added without some promises to North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami.

When this goes down, and it will go down, Clemson and Florida State to the SEC are very likely, Duke and North Carolina to the SEC are also very likely. Would the SEC want Duke? Probably not, but ESPN wants to keep them. Who the Big 10 wants and the SEC wants is irrelevant. Who ESPN wants to keep 100% access to is the only germane factor involved.


Assuming we move to 20 that would be all for the SEC. At that juncture Cal and Stanford who are being kept in the ACC for the Big 10, IMO, make their move. The SEC and Big 10 stand at 20. Now it could stay there amicably until 2036, or for the purposes of inventory and market reach we move to 24 each. At 24 each the ACC goes the way of the PAC 12 and the Big 12 grows.

ESPN is more interested in Virginia Tech, will want to keep all of Florida as that is part of their advertising strategy so Miami, has always loved Kansas, and helped them with a T3 deal in the past, so add them to the SEC. And now it comes down to how important is Atlanta to ESPN and the SEC? Is it as important as another new market? Perhaps, the addition is Georgia Tech, or perhaps the SEC adds for value, Louisville, or for that new market, Colorado. But those are the 3 plus one of the last 3 mentioned.

The Big 10 picks up Virginia and possibly Georgia Tech. If it wants Notre Dame it needs to pick up South Florida too.

But what if Notre Dame wants to remain neutral and independent? 5 games annually with the Big 10 and 5 games annually with the SEC, and 2 with the Big 12 should do it in a closed upper tier of 3 super conferences. Who does the Big 10 land then?

Virginia, N.C. State which is on most lists next 5 into AAU, possibly Georgia Tech, Utah and Colorado or Arizona/Arizona State?

The cost of UNC to the SEC will be Duke. ESPN will insist upon that and Miami. Virginia is culturally more similar to the Big 10, Virginia Tech more similar to Texas A&M, not necessarily the SEC. UGa carries 51% of Atlanta and 85% of the state. I'm not sure if Georgia Tech will be that important to ESPN. I think Georgia Tech will be in play for the Big 10.

The remainder possibly sans Wake Forest head to the Big 12.

SEC adds from the ACC: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech.

Big 10 adds from the ACC: California, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Stanford, Virginia, and Colorado for the market, or Utah for the football ability, but I'm betting Colorado for the market.

Both now stand at 24. Other than N.C. State the criteria of both conferences are met. Why an exception on N.C. State? They'll eventually be AAU and the state has nearly 11 million people.

Ah! But what if the Big 10 says no way to N.C. State? Well compromise would be needed.

Here is where the Magnificent 7 make sense.

The SEC adds Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Then they add Duke for that 8th school. But where's the compromise? Kansas and Missouri join Cal and Stanford in the Big 10 and that opens the door for the SEC to pick up Georgia Tech.

Now the Big 10 finishes out with 2 of Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.

The Big 12 which had grown to 14 with Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, and the the 4 corners to 16 now stands at 13 after losing 2 of the 4 corners and Kansas. They add South Florida, San Diego State, Oregon State, Washington State to get to 18. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville to get to 22. And then add Colorado State (if Colorado is picked up by the Big 10) and if not, Boise State, and Fresno State to move to 24.

ESPN will have protected the Deep South interests, which is what the SEC would prefer. FOX will have entry into Florida through UCF and USF, and into Texas with Baylor, T.C.U., Houston, and Texas Tech. FOX will have the West Coast except for 4 schools in the Big 12 where ESPN can draw a late game. 72 schools will have been included.

ESPN will have what it wants. FOX will have what it wants. The Big 12 will be the tweener owned by by both networks for T2 and T3 material. Notre Dame will remain a part of the upper tier but as an independent of sorts, but tied to all 3 of the other conferences for their 12 games.

SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

B1G:

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers.

Big 24:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

***Notre Dame schedules all 3 remains independent.

I'm not so sure about Cal and Stanford to the B1G, JRsec. The B1G had a chance to get them long before they went to the ACC, but the B1G passed. Considering how hard it was for Cal & Stanford to get in the ACC, I would be shocked if the B1G reversed course on those two at all. Stranger things have happened, but I would think the Arizona schools are a safer bet. I can see Colorado or Utah also.

Wanted to add something else to this: JRsec, what about Duke as an Olympic sports only member?? ESPN gets to keep what they really want (Duke basketball) and Duke gets to nuke its football program.

(11-26-2023 12:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

B1G:

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers.

Big 24:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

***Notre Dame schedules all 3 remains independent.

I think that for the most part, 3 divisions would work better for these conferences than 4:

SEC
East: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, NC State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Central: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
West: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington

Big 24
Atlantic: Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central: Baylor, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
Pacific: Arizona State, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State

I might add Memphis instead of Boise or Fresno and then bump Colorado State over to the Pacific Division.

That certainly has possibilities. The only drawback to a 3 x 8 arrangement within conferences would be that 7 divisional games would alter the rotation of opponents within the conference from the other divisions. If you had 1 OOC game in a 12 game schedule you could rotate through all conference members in 4 years if you did not factor in home and away status within 2 years but reserved it for the next rotation of games at the end of every 4 years.

For travel in most instances the 3 x 8 would be better.

(11-26-2023 02:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-26-2023 12:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

B1G:

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers.

Big 24:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

***Notre Dame schedules all 3 remains independent.

I think that for the most part, 3 divisions would work better for these conferences than 4:

SEC
East: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, NC State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Central: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
West: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington

Big 24
Atlantic: Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central: Baylor, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
Pacific: Arizona State, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State

I might add Memphis instead of Boise or Fresno and then bump Colorado State over to the Pacific Division.

That certainly has possibilities. The only drawback to a 3 x 8 arrangement within conferences would be that 7 divisional games would alter the rotation of opponents within the conference from the other divisions. If you had 1 OOC game in a 12 game schedule you could rotate through all conference members in 4 years if you did not factor in home and away status within 2 years but reserved it for the next rotation of games at the end of every 4 years.

For travel in most instances the 3 x 8 3 X 6 would be better.

FIFY

(09-25-2023 02:53 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(09-02-2023 07:34 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Finally, we have the Big 12. How would I plot their demise? I'm not going to. Why not? Ironically the formula for plotting the ACC's and even the Big 10's and SEC's doesn't and the one that worked for the Pac 12's doesn't work on the Big 12!

Think about it. If the other conferences wanted the Big 12 "dead", they could have done it just like they "killed" the Pac 12. The fact is they didn't want to. Why didn't they? Look at the "Little 8". Take Kansas State. Would any of the Big 10, SEC, ACC, or old Pac 12 want them as a member? Iowa State. The only conference that ISU would add any value to is the Big 10 as a rival with Iowa and it's fairly small. Baylor? Take away the 2021 national championship and they're a slightly better SMU in a worse geographical market. Of the 8 remaining Big 12 schools after Texas and Oklahoma left, there were only 2 schools that were the #1 schools in their state and West Virginia is sub 200 in USN&WR. Even if somehow Kansas and West Virginia had successfully found new conferences, you still had six schools "no one else wanted" and that probably is still enough to attract Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston who were just looking to get up to a "Power" conference as opposed to just Oregon State and Washington State. Meanwhile the Pac 10 (minus UCLA and USC) had California (Berkeley), Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and take your pick as to Arizona or Arizona State as to the #1 in the state of Arizona as schools that other conferences would want to take and all six of them WERE taken by other conferences. The Big 12 took Arizona AND Arizona State. We're not even counting Stanford, one of the most prestigious private schools in the country. If the Big 12 schools were as valuable as Pac 10 schools, they'd be in other conferences right now. There was nothing stopping the Big 10, SEC and ACC from adding Kansas or West Virginia or anyone else from the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma left, they didn't want them. They did want Pac 12 teams. 10 of the 12 Pac 12 teams were wanted by other conferences. Most ACC schools would be snapped up by other conferences (I can name probably four or five ACC schools the SEC and Big Ten would practically fight over). Many Big Ten and SEC schools would become instant targets of each other as well as the Big 12 and ACC. I can't say that about Big 12 schools. Ironically their weakness is their strength, they are the least likely conference to be gutted among the Power 4 foe that reason. If the SEC or Big Ten ever saw blood over the other, I can easily see one taking over the other. We know both want to take over the ACC. Who wants to take over the Big 12? Nobody! The SEC already took the two teams they (and the Big 10 and Pac 12) wanted.

Think of it this way. The MAC doesn't really have to worry too much about being raided either. I wonder why. The day Eastern Michigan or Kent State become valuable enough for even the AAC to want is the day the MAC should then start to worry.

Agree that you can’t kill the B12. There are too many programs that will always be left that will be able to reconstruct a new B12. Nevertheless, a few individual programs in the B12 are attractive to the other three power conferences.

If media companies value conferences with slightly greater content, then Kansas and Colorado are solid additions to the SEC. Kansas provides a second basketball blue blood and a geographic rival to Missouri. Colorado opens a new media time zone and is a long-standing partner to ex-B8/B12 programs. The SEC and ESPN may also prefer to not destabilize the ACC.

If the B12 AAU schools continue to build their football brands, then they’re the essential bridges to reconnect the B1G. The B1G has too much fly-over territory. Colorado, Utah and/or either Arizona school helps integrate the Pacific expansion. Similarly, the ACC can better connect to its Bay Area outpost with a couple of B12 programs.

Probably the most serious (if unlikely) expansion losses that the B12 could incur:

a) SEC (ESPN) expands to 18 with Kansas and Colorado
b) B1G (Fox) responds by building a bridge with Utah and Arizona
c) ACC defensively shores-up its content by expanding with ASU and TCU

The B12 would still rebuild as the 4th strongest conference, but weaker than before.

In the words of Dr. Ian Malcom (& probably hanging on Judy's fridge): "Life finds a way"