With Cal and Stanford off to the ACC, it looks like the Pac 12 is finally "dead", at least in terms of being a power or major conference. Certainly Oregon State and Washington State can rebuild the Pac-12, Pac-10, Pac-Whatever, but it certainly will be a shell of its former self and not even Bill Walton will call it the you know what anymore (thank God after this season I will never have to hear that phrase again out of his mouth!)

So how did it happen? A bad TV deal (or lack of one), teams of somewhat value to other conferences, and enough conferences willing to add enough teams to make the conference practically empty (in the Pac-12's case, just two remain).

Could it happen again and if so how? I mean of the remaining four Power conferences there's one obvious one I'm sure most people have already been plotting their demise for a year or two so I'll just give you my version. Just for grins and giggles, I'll plot the demise of two of the other conferences even though I know they probably won't ever happen. Finally, I'll tell you which of the four is the least likely to be picked apart and it's not the one you would think.

So of course the one EVERYONE on this board thinks will be picked apart is the ACC. It seems like ACC schools are already counting the days until 2036 and the SEC and Big Ten can't wait to get their hands on current ACC schools (although after the Big Ten settled for Oregon and Washington I'm not so sure because nothing discourages ACC schools to come to your conference more than annual trips to Seattle and Eugene).

But for now let's say it's 2036, the GOR is over, and it's open season on the ACC. Being a Big Ten guy, I'll use the AAU criteria to draft who goes to the Big Ten and who goes to the SEC.

Big Ten gets: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Georgia Tech, Cal, Stanford
SEC gets: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State
Big 12 gets: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College (Beefs up Northeast presence, Louisville is close to Cincinnati and West Virginia)

Left Behind: Wake Forest and SMU - Winston Salem is too small a market, WF too small a school. The Big 12 and SEC have enough Texas schools and SMU isn't AAU or valuable enough for the Big 10.

Maybe the SEC gets 2 of the AAU's from the Big Ten to even things up on ACC members or 4 to even overall membership. The SEC can always add Louisville but there isn't another good fit unless they really want SMU, want a Northeast school, or raid from the Big 12.

Now let's get to the not as obvious...

I've seen at least a few times rumors of the SEC taking over the Big Ten or Ohio State jumping to the SEC so let me entertain that.

The Big Ten's demise of course requires Ohio State to jump ship and the only other conference that makes any sense for it to happen would be the SEC. Now the only planet that would seem reasonable in would be if Michigan joins as well. Ohio State borders Kentucky and can possibly not stretch "Southeast" too much, Michigan would really push it. On the other hand, Ohio State likely doesn't jump without Michigan. So in this scenario, Ohio State and Michigan have to be courted together. I would assume Penn State and Michigan State also have to come along for the ride. Michigan has been said to be very academically elitist and not wanting to be in the SEC. I would never say never. I would say there's always a price. Would I want my Penn State or Illinois to be in the current SEC? No. But if we're getting a boatload of money more than the Big Ten, I'd definitely change my mind. Now of course the Big Ten is getting a very competitive amount of money compared to the SEC and there's no reason for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or even Illinois to switch now. If the market changes in 10-20 years, who knows?

I could see a scenario where Michigan might want to leave Michigan State behind but let's say for political reasons they are tied to the hip. I'll also say that the SEC also gets USC and UCLA to get into Los Angeles (and at least they are the closest to being "Southern" schools in the Big Ten).

Then without these schools, do the remaining schools try to rebuild the Big Ten or jump ship and join the Big 12 or ACC? Just for fun, let's pretend the latter. The Big 12 gets the Western schools (Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa) and the ACC the Eastern (Maryland, Rutgers).

The middle schools are interesting. Wisconsin is a strong football program (although when this split happens who knows?) so I see them winding up somewhere (let's just say ACC for now). Indiana isn't good in football but they are the #1 in a fairly large state and a history in men's basketball and border Kentucky, an ACC state (Louisville). Assuming the ACC is intact and North Carolina/Duke are somewhat calling the shots in the conference, I can see IU fitting in with the ACC.

Now we get to the state of Illinois. Illinois should be the #1, the state university. Northwestern meanwhile is the private school and after the Pat Fitzgerald mess their football team could be down for years to come and their men's basketball team seems to be down as well. But they are in Chicago, the ACC is full of private schools, they just added a worthless small private school just for location, and their AD is, gulp, a former Northwestern AD! I can see the ACC adding Northwestern over Illinois even though we SHOULD be the choice between the two and we would carry Illinois better than Northwestern would. The Big 12 would find the western schools more valuable. I would argue that Illinois is more valuable than Indiana as well but the ACC would see adding Northwestern and Indiana as two states. I can certainly see Illinois being one of the odd teams out of the ACC. The SEC certainly doesn't need us unless they need a companion to Missouri.

Who's in the most trouble? Minnesota is one. Probably a bit too far East for the Big 12 (I say that when they have Cincinnati, UCF, and West Virginia). Maybe Wisconsin gets to bring them to the ACC although most non Big 10 fans hardly know Wisconsin-Minnesota is a rivalry.

But the team in the most trouble isn't Rutgers, the ACC would likely pounce on an ACC team in the New York area. And Maryland is in prime ACC country and they are a former member.

It's Purdue! Most conferences wouldn't need two teams in Indiana, Illinois would have more value for the ACC to accept two schools in the conference or for both the ACC and Big 12 to want teams in the state and Chicago has value for possibly both to want a footing in the city. Indiana isn't big enough for both conferences to care and Purdue is clearly the second class citizens of the state with a name that is a negative unless they win and last year in the NCAA Men's Tournament they humiliated themselves. If the Big Ten collapses, they'd be the last team picked. Their hope is Indiana and Purdue being picked as a pair, their rivalry has some value although not much (more than Illinois-Northwestern and Minnesota-Wisconsin).

SEC: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, USC, and UCLA
Big 12: Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa, maybe 2 more?
ACC: Maryland, Rutgers, 4-6 of the remaining Midwestern teams
Left Behind: Purdue most likely, Minnesota, Illinois, or Northwestern?

Now that I've plotted the Big Ten's demise, let me return the favor. How about the SEC's demise?? I'm personally going to enjoy this one!

We know that most SEC schools are attached to the SEC like Big Ten schools are to the Big Ten. But again it boils down to $$$$$. I'm sure if the gap between the two conferences ever got big enough, SEC schools would want to join. Do I expect it to ever happen? Of course not. But humor me.

Now in the Big Ten's eyes we go for the AAU's again. On the other hand, we have to also consider athletic standards as well so no Vanderbilt. And we can say the Big Ten would never add Alabama because not only are they not AAU but their academics are pretty low (not top 100 USN&WR). But if the Big Ten really wanted to gut the SEC, it doesn't happen without Alabama (or without Georgia and UGa is USN&WR #47).

So the Big Ten's plan to gut the SEC is Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, and Auburn (preserves the Iron Bowl, Georgia-Auburn, and AU is #97 USN&WR).

Then Oklahoma and Missouri find their way back to the Big 12 and rekindle rivalries, Arkansas rekindles rivalries with former SWC teams as well. LSU joins the Big 12 as well.

Meanwhile, South Carolina fits in well with the ACC and Clemson, Kentucky does as well with Louisville and the basketball fit with Duke and North Carolina couldn't be better, and Tennessee and Vanderbilt also are good fits as well (Vandy fits in better in a conference with more private universities than they currently do being the only private in the SEC and football isn't as competitive in the ACC). If the Big Ten overlooks Vanderbilt's athletics and UT's academics, UT and Vandy could be an additional pair for them and adds the Alabama-Tennessee rivalry to the conference as well.

Then who's left behind? Of course Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Academics probably leave them out of both the Big Ten and ACC and the Big 12 have better fits for sure. Maybe the Big 12 adds them on top of OU, Mizzou, Ark, and LSU but they probably wouldn't need them. The good news is they wouldn't be as geographically a misfit like Oregon State and Washington State. Vanderbilt should be on the bottom but as long as there is an ACC that finds some value in private schools in big markets, Vanderbilt (and Northwestern) will have value (and their academics are way better than the SMU they just added).

Big Ten: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, and Auburn
Big 12: Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, (Ole Miss, Mississippi State?)
ACC: South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Finally, we have the Big 12. How would I plot their demise? I'm not going to. Why not? Ironically the formula for plotting the ACC's and even the Big 10's and SEC's doesn't and the one that worked for the Pac 12's doesn't work on the Big 12!

Think about it. If the other conferences wanted the Big 12 "dead", they could have done it just like they "killed" the Pac 12. The fact is they didn't want to. Why didn't they? Look at the "Little 8". Take Kansas State. Would any of the Big 10, SEC, ACC, or old Pac 12 want them as a member? Iowa State. The only conference that ISU would add any value to is the Big 10 as a rival with Iowa and it's fairly small. Baylor? Take away the 2021 national championship and they're a slightly better SMU in a worse geographical market. Of the 8 remaining Big 12 schools after Texas and Oklahoma left, there were only 2 schools that were the #1 schools in their state and West Virginia is sub 200 in USN&WR. Even if somehow Kansas and West Virginia had successfully found new conferences, you still had six schools "no one else wanted" and that probably is still enough to attract Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston who were just looking to get up to a "Power" conference as opposed to just Oregon State and Washington State. Meanwhile the Pac 10 (minus UCLA and USC) had California (Berkeley), Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and take your pick as to Arizona or Arizona State as to the #1 in the state of Arizona as schools that other conferences would want to take and all six of them WERE taken by other conferences. The Big 12 took Arizona AND Arizona State. We're not even counting Stanford, one of the most prestigious private schools in the country. If the Big 12 schools were as valuable as Pac 10 schools, they'd be in other conferences right now. There was nothing stopping the Big 10, SEC and ACC from adding Kansas or West Virginia or anyone else from the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma left, they didn't want them. They did want Pac 12 teams. 10 of the 12 Pac 12 teams were wanted by other conferences. Most ACC schools would be snapped up by other conferences (I can name probably four or five ACC schools the SEC and Big Ten would practically fight over). Many Big Ten and SEC schools would become instant targets of each other as well as the Big 12 and ACC. I can't say that about Big 12 schools. Ironically their weakness is their strength, they are the least likely conference to be gutted among the Power 4 foe that reason. If the SEC or Big Ten ever saw blood over the other, I can easily see one taking over the other. We know both want to take over the ACC. Who wants to take over the Big 12? Nobody! The SEC already took the two teams they (and the Big 10 and Pac 12) wanted.

Think of it this way. The MAC doesn't really have to worry too much about being raided either. I wonder why. The day Eastern Michigan or Kent State become valuable enough for even the AAC to want is the day the MAC should then start to worry.

If they went by tv markets? A lot of schools in the SEC and Big 10 would be left behind. Clemson would be left behind as well because that is a very small market. Smaller than Boise State's. That is why media markets do not matter in college sports like they do in the pros.

If 10 of the 12 Pac 12 teams found homes in other conferences, most of the Big 10/SEC teams would. You're seeing a school like Penn State in a tiny market like State College, PA and forgetting they cover most of the state. Oregon's in Eugene but they cover the whole state too and that's why the Big Ten took them (that and some guy named Phil Knight some company named Nike).

(09-02-2023 07:34 AM)schmolik Wrote:  With Cal and Stanford off to the ACC, it looks like the Pac 12 is finally "dead", at least in terms of being a power or major conference. Certainly Oregon State and Washington State can rebuild the Pac-12, Pac-10, Pac-Whatever, but it certainly will be a shell of its former self and not even Bill Walton will call it the you know what anymore (thank God after this season I will never have to hear that phrase again out of his mouth!)

So how did it happen? A bad TV deal (or lack of one), teams of somewhat value to other conferences, and enough conferences willing to add enough teams to make the conference practically empty (in the Pac-12's case, just two remain).

Could it happen again and if so how? I mean of the remaining four Power conferences there's one obvious one I'm sure most people have already been plotting their demise for a year or two so I'll just give you my version. Just for grins and giggles, I'll plot the demise of two of the other conferences even though I know they probably won't ever happen. Finally, I'll tell you which of the four is the least likely to be picked apart and it's not the one you would think.

So of course the one EVERYONE on this board thinks will be picked apart is the ACC. It seems like ACC schools are already counting the days until 2036 and the SEC and Big Ten can't wait to get their hands on current ACC schools (although after the Big Ten settled for Oregon and Washington I'm not so sure because nothing discourages ACC schools to come to your conference more than annual trips to Seattle and Eugene).

But for now let's say it's 2036, the GOR is over, and it's open season on the ACC. Being a Big Ten guy, I'll use the AAU criteria to draft who goes to the Big Ten and who goes to the SEC.

Big Ten gets: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Georgia Tech, Cal, Stanford
SEC gets: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State
Big 12 gets: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College (Beefs up Northeast presence, Louisville is close to Cincinnati and West Virginia)

Left Behind: Wake Forest and SMU - Winston Salem is too small a market, WF too small a school. The Big 12 and SEC have enough Texas schools and SMU isn't AAU or valuable enough for the Big 10.

Maybe the SEC gets 2 of the AAU's from the Big Ten to even things up on ACC members or 4 to even overall membership. The SEC can always add Louisville but there isn't another good fit unless they really want SMU, want a Northeast school, or raid from the Big 12.
...

Nice post. Big post : )

Going to look at this in pieces : )

First, I don't think it's quite as simple about the ACC.

I think the Big12 AAU schools add a wrinkle to this.

(Unless we think the end game is for the Big10 to just add all fbs AAU schools - not the worst idea in the world, I suppose : )

I think we need to look at this from the SEC perspective.

Unless they change their strategy and brand, they are somewhat restricted in what schools are expansion choices.

And of course they should pick their battles (I don't think any conference wants a bidding war. Conferences are happier when schools are desperate and wanting them, rather than the other way round : )

So, for example, knowing that the Big10 wants into Florida, do they fight for both FSU and Miami? Or just pick one, knowing that if the Big10 picks the other, that's one less ACC school the Big10 is likely getting and one more other ACC school the SEC is getting.

So the SEC's choices should be strategic based upon the above.

FSU first, then any AAU schools that they want, or at least do not want the Big10 to get.

Like North Carolina and Georgia Tech.

The SEC seems less interested in Duke, due to lack of prioritizing football.

And it would seem that VT is more of a "fit" to the SEC, than Virginia.

That's 4 additions right there.

Then add 2 more for 22 - Clemson, and North Carolina State

The Big10, in that scenario adds Miami, VA, and Duke. And has room to add more from the Big12. (And who knows, at that point, Pittsburgh could maybe end up being an option.)

That said, there's really no reason that the SEC couldn't try to add those three as well. But again - bidding war...

There's also Stanford and Cal-Berkeley. But we still don't know why the Big10 turned them both down previously. (Though there are plenty of guesses out there : )

As for the Big12, I still think SMU would be a good addition for them. And if the Big10 raids the Big12, I wouldn't be surprised if the Big12 looks to SMU as a backfill option.

(09-02-2023 07:34 AM)schmolik Wrote:  [...]
Now let's get to the not as obvious...

I've seen at least a few times rumors of the SEC taking over the Big Ten or Ohio State jumping to the SEC so let me entertain that.

The Big Ten's demise of course requires Ohio State to jump ship and the only other conference that makes any sense for it to happen would be the SEC. Now the only planet that would seem reasonable in would be if Michigan joins as well. Ohio State borders Kentucky and can possibly not stretch "Southeast" too much, Michigan would really push it. On the other hand, Ohio State likely doesn't jump without Michigan. So in this scenario, Ohio State and Michigan have to be courted together. I would assume Penn State and Michigan State also have to come along for the ride. Michigan has been said to be very academically elitist and not wanting to be in the SEC. I would never say never. I would say there's always a price. Would I want my Penn State or Illinois to be in the current SEC? No. But if we're getting a boatload of money more than the Big Ten, I'd definitely change my mind. Now of course the Big Ten is getting a very competitive amount of money compared to the SEC and there's no reason for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or even Illinois to switch now. If the market changes in 10-20 years, who knows?

I could see a scenario where Michigan might want to leave Michigan State behind but let's say for political reasons they are tied to the hip. I'll also say that the SEC also gets USC and UCLA to get into Los Angeles (and at least they are the closest to being "Southern" schools in the Big Ten).

Then without these schools, do the remaining schools try to rebuild the Big Ten or jump ship and join the Big 12 or ACC? Just for fun, let's pretend the latter. The Big 12 gets the Western schools (Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa) and the ACC the Eastern (Maryland, Rutgers).

The middle schools are interesting. Wisconsin is a strong football program (although when this split happens who knows?) so I see them winding up somewhere (let's just say ACC for now). Indiana isn't good in football but they are the #1 in a fairly large state and a history in men's basketball and border Kentucky, an ACC state (Louisville). Assuming the ACC is intact and North Carolina/Duke are somewhat calling the shots in the conference, I can see IU fitting in with the ACC.

Now we get to the state of Illinois. Illinois should be the #1, the state university. Northwestern meanwhile is the private school and after the Pat Fitzgerald mess their football team could be down for years to come and their men's basketball team seems to be down as well. But they are in Chicago, the ACC is full of private schools, they just added a worthless small private school just for location, and their AD is, gulp, a former Northwestern AD! I can see the ACC adding Northwestern over Illinois even though we SHOULD be the choice between the two and we would carry Illinois better than Northwestern would. The Big 12 would find the western schools more valuable. I would argue that Illinois is more valuable than Indiana as well but the ACC would see adding Northwestern and Indiana as two states. I can certainly see Illinois being one of the odd teams out of the ACC. The SEC certainly doesn't need us unless they need a companion to Missouri.

Who's in the most trouble? Minnesota is one. Probably a bit too far East for the Big 12 (I say that when they have Cincinnati, UCF, and West Virginia). Maybe Wisconsin gets to bring them to the ACC although most non Big 10 fans hardly know Wisconsin-Minnesota is a rivalry.

But the team in the most trouble isn't Rutgers, the ACC would likely pounce on an ACC team in the New York area. And Maryland is in prime ACC country and they are a former member.

It's Purdue! Most conferences wouldn't need two teams in Indiana, Illinois would have more value for the ACC to accept two schools in the conference or for both the ACC and Big 12 to want teams in the state and Chicago has value for possibly both to want a footing in the city. Indiana isn't big enough for both conferences to care and Purdue is clearly the second class citizens of the state with a name that is a negative unless they win and last year in the NCAA Men's Tournament they humiliated themselves. If the Big Ten collapses, they'd be the last team picked. Their hope is Indiana and Purdue being picked as a pair, their rivalry has some value although not much (more than Illinois-Northwestern and Minnesota-Wisconsin).

SEC: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, USC, and UCLA
Big 12: Washington, Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa, maybe 2 more?
ACC: Maryland, Rutgers, 4-6 of the remaining Midwestern teams
Left Behind: Purdue most likely, Minnesota, Illinois, or Northwestern?
[...]

Part 2.

Reminds me of the quote from Henry V: ''"The poor condemned English..."''

Oh the poor condemned Big10... : )

So first, how shocked the world might be if Ohio State went to the SEC, but Michigan did not...

I don't think they are locked in place, joined at the hip.

I think, if anything, Michigan might start a ''new'' conference, rather than join the SEC.

And if Ohio state comes along, pretty much any conference with Michigan and Ohio State at the core, is likely to make decent money. I could see them focused on AAU schools east of the Mississippi river.

Perhaps just have OSU, MI, MI state, Indiana, Purdue, PSU, Rutgers, and Maryland join the ACC. Though yes, Indiana, and Purdue might get left behind.

And in such a move/merge, leaving out non-AAU schools like Syracuse, Boston College, and Wake Forest, could very well be considered. Same with non-AAU Louisville and SMU.

And if this happened, would FSU and Clemson still want to go to the SEC? If so, with these schools incoming, I think the rest of the ACC might well be willing to let them leave as well.

Of course, if this merger happened, a case could be made for AAU schools Georgia and Florida to join this new ACC, so FSU might not be as interested in leaving. Though they might, and if so, USF is now AAU, so there are always options.

The Big10 east of the Mississippi could grab the 4Cs and Kansas, and look a very much like an expansion of the old Big8.

New ACC - 18+ND
Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Miami, Stanford, Cal

New Big18 - 18
WA, OR, USC, UCLA, AZ, AZ State, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

From SEC - Missouri, Georgia, Florida
To SEC - FSU, Clemson, Louisville
To BigEast - BC, Syracuse. (both indy football)
To AAC - WF
To Big12 - SMU

(09-02-2023 07:34 AM)schmolik Wrote:  [...]
Now that I've plotted the Big Ten's demise, let me return the favor. How about the SEC's demise?? I'm personally going to enjoy this one!

We know that most SEC schools are attached to the SEC like Big Ten schools are to the Big Ten. But again it boils down to $$$$$. I'm sure if the gap between the two conferences ever got big enough, SEC schools would want to join. Do I expect it to ever happen? Of course not. But humor me.

Now in the Big Ten's eyes we go for the AAU's again. On the other hand, we have to also consider athletic standards as well so no Vanderbilt. And we can say the Big Ten would never add Alabama because not only are they not AAU but their academics are pretty low (not top 100 USN&WR). But if the Big Ten really wanted to gut the SEC, it doesn't happen without Alabama (or without Georgia and UGa is USN&WR #47).

So the Big Ten's plan to gut the SEC is Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, and Auburn (preserves the Iron Bowl, Georgia-Auburn, and AU is #97 USN&WR).

Then Oklahoma and Missouri find their way back to the Big 12 and rekindle rivalries, Arkansas rekindles rivalries with former SWC teams as well. LSU joins the Big 12 as well.

Meanwhile, South Carolina fits in well with the ACC and Clemson, Kentucky does as well with Louisville and the basketball fit with Duke and North Carolina couldn't be better, and Tennessee and Vanderbilt also are good fits as well (Vandy fits in better in a conference with more private universities than they currently do being the only private in the SEC and football isn't as competitive in the ACC). If the Big Ten overlooks Vanderbilt's athletics and UT's academics, UT and Vandy could be an additional pair for them and adds the Alabama-Tennessee rivalry to the conference as well.

Then who's left behind? Of course Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Academics probably leave them out of both the Big Ten and ACC and the Big 12 have better fits for sure. Maybe the Big 12 adds them on top of OU, Mizzou, Ark, and LSU but they probably wouldn't need them. The good news is they wouldn't be as geographically a misfit like Oregon State and Washington State. Vanderbilt should be on the bottom but as long as there is an ACC that finds some value in private schools in big markets, Vanderbilt (and Northwestern) will have value (and their academics are way better than the SMU they just added).

Big Ten: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, and Auburn
Big 12: Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, (Ole Miss, Mississippi State?)
ACC: South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
[...]

Part 3

First, I don't think Alabama gets a Big10 invite. They rarely pick a school based upon football success. Same with Auburn. They could, but I doubt it.

Instead, if you want to plot changes to the SEC, look at outliers.

As I've said elsewhere, Georgia and Florida going to the ACC would be a game changer. They could bring South Carolina along (or not) just due to also being on the coast.

As for what's left, The Big10 could go after the AAU schools, though if they're heading to the door, I think Vanderbilt is more likely to join Florida and Georgia in the ACC, than to join the Big10.

After the AAU schools are gone, the rest are likely to merge with (at least some of) the Big12 somehow. Especially if the Big10 raids the 4Cs, Kansas, and Missouri.

I think Texas A&M is likely to want to stay with LSU and Arkansas, and Texas and Oklahoma are likely to want to stay together.

And while Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia are a decent grouping, even if a bit north for the SEC footprint, I think it's likely that Iowa State doesn't make the trip - the AAC or MWC (or even the MAC) are all possibilities.

I don't think the remains of the Big12 would complain about joining a new SEC, though I think the conference would balk at more than 4 Texas schools, so, Houston, and Baylor (or SMU or Rice), might not make the merge.

new SEC - 24

Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, BYU, Kansas State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville, Florida State, USF, South Carolina, Clemson

I think that's quite the football conference...

(09-02-2023 07:34 AM)schmolik Wrote:  [...]
Finally, we have the Big 12. How would I plot their demise? I'm not going to. Why not? Ironically the formula for plotting the ACC's and even the Big 10's and SEC's doesn't and the one that worked for the Pac 12's doesn't work on the Big 12!

Think about it. If the other conferences wanted the Big 12 "dead", they could have done it just like they "killed" the Pac 12. The fact is they didn't want to. Why didn't they? Look at the "Little 8". Take Kansas State. Would any of the Big 10, SEC, ACC, or old Pac 12 want them as a member? Iowa State. The only conference that ISU would add any value to is the Big 10 as a rival with Iowa and it's fairly small. Baylor? Take away the 2021 national championship and they're a slightly better SMU in a worse geographical market. Of the 8 remaining Big 12 schools after Texas and Oklahoma left, there were only 2 schools that were the #1 schools in their state and West Virginia is sub 200 in USN&WR. Even if somehow Kansas and West Virginia had successfully found new conferences, you still had six schools "no one else wanted" and that probably is still enough to attract Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston who were just looking to get up to a "Power" conference as opposed to just Oregon State and Washington State. Meanwhile the Pac 10 (minus UCLA and USC) had California (Berkeley), Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and take your pick as to Arizona or Arizona State as to the #1 in the state of Arizona as schools that other conferences would want to take and all six of them WERE taken by other conferences. The Big 12 took Arizona AND Arizona State. We're not even counting Stanford, one of the most prestigious private schools in the country. If the Big 12 schools were as valuable as Pac 10 schools, they'd be in other conferences right now. There was nothing stopping the Big 10, SEC and ACC from adding Kansas or West Virginia or anyone else from the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma left, they didn't want them. They did want Pac 12 teams. 10 of the 12 Pac 12 teams were wanted by other conferences. Most ACC schools would be snapped up by other conferences (I can name probably four or five ACC schools the SEC and Big Ten would practically fight over). Many Big Ten and SEC schools would become instant targets of each other as well as the Big 12 and ACC. I can't say that about Big 12 schools. Ironically their weakness is their strength, they are the least likely conference to be gutted among the Power 4 foe that reason. If the SEC or Big Ten ever saw blood over the other, I can easily see one taking over the other. We know both want to take over the ACC. Who wants to take over the Big 12? Nobody! The SEC already took the two teams they (and the Big 10 and Pac 12) wanted.

Think of it this way. The MAC doesn't really have to worry too much about being raided either. I wonder why. The day Eastern Michigan or Kent State become valuable enough for even the AAC to want is the day the MAC should then start to worry.

Well, as I noted in the 3 posts above, There's value to be had from the Big12, it just depends on how the 3 conferences are split up.

(09-03-2023 01:22 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  First, I don't think Alabama gets a Big10 invite. They rarely pick a school based upon football success. Same with Auburn. They could, but I doubt it.

If the premise is the Big 10 wanted to "kill" the SEC, they aren't going to do it without taking Alabama. Yes, Florida, Texas, and Texas A&M fit the Big Ten's academic/AAU profile. But take these schools away from the SEC and the SEC likely reloads just fine (assuming the Big Ten is strict on AAU and Florida State's available, the SEC just replaces UF with FSU and doesn't lose much in the Sunshine State, Texas would be a way different story as Tech, Baylor, TCU, etc would be a huge dropoff to UT and A&M).

And they rarely pick a school based on football success? Nebraska says hi. They weren't chosen for their large population, huge cable subscription base or their academics. If the Big Ten won't make a football exception for Alabama, they won't make an exception for anybody. I've said football success is cyclical but in this case so is Alabama football success. It's not like 'Bama just got good when Saban got there, there was this guy named Bear Bryant?

Ohio State, Michigan OR PSU would be enough to destabilize the B1G. Alternatively, any 2 of USC/Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa/Nebraska would also do the trick.

Flipping that around, the SEC is a bit more complicated. Georgia and LSU are the only SEC schools that the B1G could take all by themselves that we'd struggle to replace, though we have so many schools nearby that I think we'd be fine. Fortunately, those 2 probably aren't very high on the B1G wish list due to Academics. Looking at other potential B1G targets, the State of Alabama requires both and they're not desirable Academically, the State of Florida requires FSU/UF and they'd be acceptable to the B1G as a pair I suspect, and ofc Texas and A&M would be at the top of their wishlist. Fortunately for us SEC fans, A&M would rather chew off both of our arms and legs and fight like the Black Knight against King Arthur than leave the SEC.

TLDR: The SEC is VERY unlikely to destabilize the B1G, and the B1G is even less likely to destabilize the SEC. Some sort of merger or breakaway from the NCAA, or Congressional Legislation on Pay for Play, could serve as a catalyst for P2 instability, but it's hard to imagine one of us turning the screws to the other right now and destabilizing them.

(09-03-2023 03:15 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Ohio State, Michigan OR PSU would be enough to destabilize the B1G. Alternatively, any 2 of USC/Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa/Nebraska would also do the trick.

Flipping that around, the SEC is a bit more complicated. Georgia and LSU are the only SEC schools that the B1G could take all by themselves that we'd struggle to replace, though we have so many schools nearby that I think we'd be fine. Fortunately, those 2 probably aren't very high on the B1G wish list due to Academics. Looking at other potential B1G targets, the State of Alabama requires both and they're not desirable Academically, the State of Florida requires FSU/UF and they'd be acceptable to the B1G as a pair I suspect, and ofc Texas and A&M would be at the top of their wishlist. Fortunately for us SEC fans, A&M would rather chew off both of our arms and legs and fight like the Black Knight against King Arthur than leave the SEC.

TLDR: The SEC is VERY unlikely to destabilize the B1G, and the B1G is even less likely to destabilize the SEC. Some sort of merger or breakaway from the NCAA, or Congressional Legislation on Pay for Play, could serve as a catalyst for P2 instability, but it's hard to imagine one of us turning the screws to the other right now and destabilizing them.

As long as the Big Three are in the Big Ten, it will remain a desirable destination. I would say it could survive without Penn State if it doesn't lose any other top members although without PSU the Big Ten is irrelevant in the East Coast (likewise without USC it would be irrelevant in California barring a UCLA resurgence although the Big Ten to this date has survived without a West Coast presence).

Take away Ohio State and Michigan and we're done.

SEC? Alabama is the obvious #1. If the Big Ten is considering a nuclear option (killing the SEC) at all, it has to consider nabbing Alabama. Even if the Big Ten takes Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, and Georgia, the rest of the SEC probably isn't going to abandon ship like the rest of the Pac 12 did as long as Alabama stays.

On the other hand, I think the SEC can survive losing Alabama, especially with Georgia winning back to back national championships, and as long as the SEC has Florida and Texas/Texas A&M they can always count on a large population base not to mention huge recruiting talent bases. I'm not kidding myself, college football is inherently Southern now and the SEC has a huge edge there. The SEC isn't just Alabama. I think Alabama, Georgia, and the states of Florida and Texas are the keys to the SEC. I'm not sold on LSU, they are hot and cold. I do think the Big Ten getting Florida and Texas would be big wins and get them into the region.

To actually "kill" the SEC would require taking many teams. I would say the minimum right now would be Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and even then the SEC still has A&M, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, and can grab FSU for Florida. I think the Big Ten taking both Texas and A&M would leave the SEC without a decent Texas option and Florida State would have less incentive to jump from the ACC. The sixth SEC school, whether that is Auburn or Tennessee, and the ACC all of a sudden is no worse than what's left of the SEC.

(09-03-2023 01:54 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(09-03-2023 01:22 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  First, I don't think Alabama gets a Big10 invite. They rarely pick a school based upon football success. Same with Auburn. They could, but I doubt it.

If the premise is the Big 10 wanted to "kill" the SEC, they aren't going to do it without taking Alabama. Yes, Florida, Texas, and Texas A&M fit the Big Ten's academic/AAU profile. But take these schools away from the SEC and the SEC likely reloads just fine (assuming the Big Ten is strict on AAU and Florida State's available, the SEC just replaces UF with FSU and doesn't lose much in the Sunshine State, Texas would be a way different story as Tech, Baylor, TCU, etc would be a huge dropoff to UT and A&M).

And they rarely pick a school based on football success? Nebraska says hi. They weren't chosen for their large population, huge cable subscription base or their academics. If the Big Ten won't make a football exception for Alabama, they won't make an exception for anybody. I've said football success is cyclical but in this case so is Alabama football success. It's not like 'Bama just got good when Saban got there, there was this guy named Bear Bryant?

Nebraska wasn't added merely due to football prowess.

I would be surprised if anyone suggested that.

https://omaha.com/sports/college/huskers...5719f.html

Quote:The Big Ten contingent went through a PowerPoint presentation detailing the Big Ten, its TV network, projections on future revenues, conference traditions and values and what it was looking for in a new member.

Then it was Nebraska’s turn.

Perlman said he and Osborne were definitely trying to sell Delany on Nebraska. Even though they weren’t sure the Big Ten was right for NU, they felt it was important to keep the option alive.

Perlman said he was upfront on why Nebraska was there, concerned about NU’s vulnerability in the Big 12 and intrigued by the Big Ten.

Osborne and Perlman had decided against PowerPoints or flashy videos playing the school fight song. They talked through what they thought were the “high points” of Nebraska and went through a series of documents outlining information requested by the Big Ten.

They covered the school’s guiding principles, budget, facilities, plans, NCAA compliance, future schedules and media deals. The university has declined to disclose the documents it offered, saying they are exempt from the state’s open records law.

A key message Perlman wanted to convey was that at Nebraska, “we try to do things the right way.” He and Osborne cited the school’s record number of academic All-Americans and sterling compliance record.

Delany was struck by how well Nebraska’s profile fit those of top-tier programs in the Big Ten: Iconic brand. AAU membership. Broad-based athletic program. Strong value on sportsmanship.

“I saw a lot of things familiar to me,” he said.

But the comfort level went beyond the school.

Going in, Delany had been just vaguely acquainted with Osborne and Perlman. But he liked how the two Nebraskans presented themselves.

He was particularly struck by how concerned Perlman and Osborne were about making sure the cultures of the Big Ten and Nebraska meshed — a concern born in the less-than-ideal marriage between the old Big Eight and the Texas schools.

Delany recalls Osborne saying at one point during the culture discussion, “There are some things that are more important than money.”

In this case, Delany saw a great cultural fit. It’s safe to say that Nebraska’s stock had climbed considerably, he said last week.

“It clicked on both of our ends,” he said.

bolded - that isn't about football.

I'm generally not enamored with the idea of "killing" conferences but the reality is USC wanted out of the PAC and if the Big Ten didn't take them then it would be a massive self-own. The Big Ten's problem before wasn't money, alumni or academic acumen, which they have in spades. It's the perceived brand deficit in comparison to the SEC. In a more ideal world all the legacy schools would just work harder at winning and not need to keep adding. Unfortunately, the college sports world no longer care about the "old college try" and too many fans buy into the network-driven narrative designed to weaken associations not under their yoke, *cough E+Spin cough*. I actually knew that this would become a thorn to even the most stubborn Big Ten fan that I even opened up a thread in the Big Ten board about whether there should be a closer association with the PAC or even a semi merger a couple of years ago. Even Delany had to explain to Big Ten presidents that there are times when status quo was a riskier option than expanding.

Today, with the recent problems at Disney, my concerns have been tempered. I now speculate that the pressure to consolidate after this round may rapidly diminish. E-spin may be forced to pull back and even Fox Sports would slow if they perceive no pressure. It's also possible that new media outlets will enter the picture just to help the incumbents hold on to the properties they hold now. Fox sharing content with NBC and CBS for the Big Ten is one prime example of this happening. I could see the CW getting more involved in sharing ACC content with ESPN.

I see this as more of a fantasy thread than anything else, so I'll presume with each of four posts that the conference will be divvied up, although there may be some left behinds in each conference.

Start with the ACC, since that's the most realistic possibility of the four.

Clemson and Florida State go to the SEC. Not that the Big Ten wouldn't have interest in them, but they're a better cultural fit for the SEC. They just look and feel like SEC schools.

Virginia to the Big Ten. The Big Ten has some interest in Virginia, and Virginia's other rival, Maryland, is already in the Big Ten.

That brings us to North Carolina, which will be the first major realignment skirmish between the Big Ten and SEC. I know this is the minority opinion on this board, but I think the Big Ten wins out in the end. North Carolina will see the Big Ten as the better academic, athletic and cultural fit, especially with Virginia already on board. North Carolina is something of a "wine and cheese" school, which fits in better with the Big Ten. Athletically, among others, North Carolina sponsors teams in men's soccer and men's lacrosse, both of which are very good. The Big Ten sponsors both of those sports, the SEC sponsors neither.

The Big Ten then adds Georgia Tech, to get a foothold in the Atlanta market, and Miami, to gain a presence in Florida. I also think the Big Ten's no to Cal and Stanford was more of a "not right now" than a "never." As it is, they're adding four new members on the West Coast, and they probably want some time to gauge the impact of those programs. Assuming that it's successful, I think they add Cal and Stanford later.

With North Carolina gone to the Big Ten, I think the SEC grabs N.C. State. I know some have mentioned that Duke has greater value than N.C. State due to basketball and academics, but I think the consensus of this board overestimates the importance of basketball in realignment. Further, in both areas N.C. State acquits itself well enough (albeit not as well as Duke) for SEC standards. I think the SEC goes with N.C. State because they see N.C. State as the better fit, based on (a) being a public school; and (b) having a far greater long-term ceiling than Duke in football. The SEC then takes either one or all three of Kansas, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech to round out its additions.

At this point the Big XII gets in the mix. Pitt and Louisville fit in perfectly with the eastern wing of that conference, as does Virginia Tech if it is still available. And because Yormark values basketball, they'll also take Duke and Syracuse.

Notre Dame will want to remain independent for football, and likely will view the Big XII as the best available potential partner for basketball and olympic sports. I think they join the Big XII in a similar deal to their current deal with the ACC, and I think the Big XII also, as a result, adds Georgetown, Gonzaga and Villanova as non-football members.

I don't see the Big XII having any interest in BC, Wake Forest or SMU. The possible exception could arise if both N.C. State and Duke get a P2 invite, in which case they may add Wake Forest only to gain a presence in North Carolina. SMU is out because the Big XII already has an inroad to the DFW media market, and I don't think there's much interest in BC. Yes, Boston is a decent sized market, but it's primarily a pro sports market. The Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins all will command more interest there than BC athletics. In fact, if the Big XII decides to add one or more additional members, I believe they will come from the G5, one or more of the following: UConn (northeast presence plus elite basketball), South Florida (ideal travel partner for UCF), Memphis (geographic bridge between the eastern schools and plains schools) and Tulane (outside the current footprint, but a natural addition to the Big XII footprint if they want to expand into "SEC" territory.)

Truth is more appealing than fiction. The conferences set parameters. The networks drive realignment. ESPN stood back as FOX took what it wanted from the PAC 12. They did so because Texas and Oklahoma needed an amicable settlement to leave early and FOX held the key. Whether ESPN incentivized Yormark to offer his own incentive to Colorado to get the finishing off of the PAC 12 underway or not remains in the realm of suspicion. It is fairly clear that the additions Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and B.Y.U. coupled with Texas and Oklahoma's cooperation on that matter was the beginning of the process. This process is now repeated in the ACC with the additions of Cal, Stanford, and S.M.U. I don't think those get added without some promises to North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami.

When this goes down, and it will go down, Clemson and Florida State to the SEC are very likely, Duke and North Carolina to the SEC are also very likely. Would the SEC want Duke? Probably not, but ESPN wants to keep them. Who the Big 10 wants and the SEC wants is irrelevant. Who ESPN wants to keep 100% access to is the only germane factor involved.

Assuming we move to 20 that would be all for the SEC. At that juncture Cal and Stanford who are being kept in the ACC for the Big 10, IMO, make their move. The SEC and Big 10 stand at 20. Now it could stay there amicably until 2036, or for the purposes of inventory and market reach we move to 24 each. At 24 each the ACC goes the way of the PAC 12 and the Big 12 grows.

ESPN is more interested in Virginia Tech, will want to keep all of Florida as that is part of their advertising strategy so Miami, has always loved Kansas, and helped them with a T3 deal in the past, so add them to the SEC. And now it comes down to how important is Atlanta to ESPN and the SEC? Is it as important as another new market? Perhaps, the addition is Georgia Tech, or perhaps the SEC adds for value, Louisville, or for that new market, Colorado. But those are the 3 plus one of the last 3 mentioned.

The Big 10 picks up Virginia and possibly Georgia Tech. If it wants Notre Dame it needs to pick up South Florida too.

But what if Notre Dame wants to remain neutral and independent? 5 games annually with the Big 10 and 5 games annually with the SEC, and 2 with the Big 12 should do it in a closed upper tier of 3 super conferences. Who does the Big 10 land then?

Virginia, N.C. State which is on most lists next 5 into AAU, possibly Georgia Tech, Utah and Colorado or Arizona/Arizona State?

The cost of UNC to the SEC will be Duke. ESPN will insist upon that and Miami. Virginia is culturally more similar to the Big 10, Virginia Tech more similar to Texas A&M, not necessarily the SEC. UGa carries 51% of Atlanta and 85% of the state. I'm not sure if Georgia Tech will be that important to ESPN. I think Georgia Tech will be in play for the Big 10.

The remainder possibly sans Wake Forest head to the Big 12.

SEC adds from the ACC: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech.

Big 10 adds from the ACC: California, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Stanford, Virginia, and Colorado for the market, or Utah for the football ability, but I'm betting Colorado for the market.

Both now stand at 24. Other than N.C. State the criteria of both conferences are met. Why an exception on N.C. State? They'll eventually be AAU and the state has nearly 11 million people.

Ah! But what if the Big 10 says no way to N.C. State? Well compromise would be needed.

Here is where the Magnificent 7 make sense.

The SEC adds Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Then they add Duke for that 8th school. But where's the compromise? Kansas and Missouri join Cal and Stanford in the Big 10 and that opens the door for the SEC to pick up Georgia Tech.

Now the Big 10 finishes out with 2 of Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.

The Big 12 which had grown to 14 with Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, and the the 4 corners to 16 now stands at 13 after losing 2 of the 4 corners and Kansas. They add South Florida, San Diego State, Oregon State, Washington State to get to 18. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville to get to 22. And then add Colorado State (if Colorado is picked up by the Big 10) and if not, Boise State, and Fresno State to move to 24.

ESPN will have protected the Deep South interests, which is what the SEC would prefer. FOX will have entry into Florida through UCF and USF, and into Texas with Baylor, T.C.U., Houston, and Texas Tech. FOX will have the West Coast except for 4 schools in the Big 12 where ESPN can draw a late game. 72 schools will have been included.

ESPN will have what it wants. FOX will have what it wants. The Big 12 will be the tweener owned by by both networks for T2 and T3 material. Notre Dame will remain a part of the upper tier but as an independent of sorts, but tied to all 3 of the other conferences for their 12 games.

SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

B1G:

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers.

Big 24:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

***Notre Dame schedules all 3 remains independent.

(09-02-2023 07:34 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Finally, we have the Big 12. How would I plot their demise? I'm not going to. Why not? Ironically the formula for plotting the ACC's and even the Big 10's and SEC's doesn't and the one that worked for the Pac 12's doesn't work on the Big 12!

Think about it. If the other conferences wanted the Big 12 "dead", they could have done it just like they "killed" the Pac 12. The fact is they didn't want to. Why didn't they? Look at the "Little 8". Take Kansas State. Would any of the Big 10, SEC, ACC, or old Pac 12 want them as a member? Iowa State. The only conference that ISU would add any value to is the Big 10 as a rival with Iowa and it's fairly small. Baylor? Take away the 2021 national championship and they're a slightly better SMU in a worse geographical market. Of the 8 remaining Big 12 schools after Texas and Oklahoma left, there were only 2 schools that were the #1 schools in their state and West Virginia is sub 200 in USN&WR. Even if somehow Kansas and West Virginia had successfully found new conferences, you still had six schools "no one else wanted" and that probably is still enough to attract Cincinnati, UCF, BYU, and Houston who were just looking to get up to a "Power" conference as opposed to just Oregon State and Washington State. Meanwhile the Pac 10 (minus UCLA and USC) had California (Berkeley), Washington, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and take your pick as to Arizona or Arizona State as to the #1 in the state of Arizona as schools that other conferences would want to take and all six of them WERE taken by other conferences. The Big 12 took Arizona AND Arizona State. We're not even counting Stanford, one of the most prestigious private schools in the country. If the Big 12 schools were as valuable as Pac 10 schools, they'd be in other conferences right now. There was nothing stopping the Big 10, SEC and ACC from adding Kansas or West Virginia or anyone else from the Big 12 after Texas and Oklahoma left, they didn't want them. They did want Pac 12 teams. 10 of the 12 Pac 12 teams were wanted by other conferences. Most ACC schools would be snapped up by other conferences (I can name probably four or five ACC schools the SEC and Big Ten would practically fight over). Many Big Ten and SEC schools would become instant targets of each other as well as the Big 12 and ACC. I can't say that about Big 12 schools. Ironically their weakness is their strength, they are the least likely conference to be gutted among the Power 4 foe that reason. If the SEC or Big Ten ever saw blood over the other, I can easily see one taking over the other. We know both want to take over the ACC. Who wants to take over the Big 12? Nobody! The SEC already took the two teams they (and the Big 10 and Pac 12) wanted.

Think of it this way. The MAC doesn't really have to worry too much about being raided either. I wonder why. The day Eastern Michigan or Kent State become valuable enough for even the AAC to want is the day the MAC should then start to worry.

Agree that you can’t kill the B12. There are too many programs that will always be left that will be able to reconstruct a new B12. Nevertheless, a few individual programs in the B12 are attractive to the other three power conferences.

If media companies value conferences with slightly greater content, then Kansas and Colorado are solid additions to the SEC. Kansas provides a second basketball blue blood and a geographic rival to Missouri. Colorado opens a new media time zone and is a long-standing partner to ex-B8/B12 programs. The SEC and ESPN may also prefer to not destabilize the ACC.

If the B12 AAU schools continue to build their football brands, then they’re the essential bridges to reconnect the B1G. The B1G has too much fly-over territory. Colorado, Utah and/or either Arizona school helps integrate the Pacific expansion. Similarly, the ACC can better connect to its Bay Area outpost with a couple of B12 programs.

Probably the most serious (if unlikely) expansion losses that the B12 could incur:

a) SEC (ESPN) expands to 18 with Kansas and Colorado
b) B1G (Fox) responds by building a bridge with Utah and Arizona
c) ACC defensively shores-up its content by expanding with ASU and TCU

The B12 would still rebuild as the 4th strongest conference, but weaker than before.

If the SEC collapses, I think it has to be the result of the B1G leaving the NCAA.

Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri, and Vanderbilt are all AAU and get added to scratch various itches for markets and academics. The B1G adds North Carolina, Virginia, and Miami (FL), Stanford, Florida State, and Notre Dame from the ACC. I think the B1G adds one of Georgia or Georgia Tech as well to get to 30.

Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Clemson, Louisville, LSU, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia/Georgia Tech join the Big 12.

The remains of the ACC and SEC band together.

(11-25-2023 12:01 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the SEC collapses, I think it has to be the result of the B1G leaving the NCAA.

Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri, and Vanderbilt are all AAU and get added to scratch various itches for markets and academics. The B1G adds North Carolina, Virginia, and Miami (FL), Stanford, Florida State, and Notre Dame from the ACC. I think the B1G adds one of Georgia or Georgia Tech as well to get to 30.

Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Clemson, Louisville, LSU, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia/Georgia Tech join the Big 12.

The remains of the ACC and SEC band together.

I want some of what you're smoking.

(11-25-2023 08:11 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-25-2023 12:01 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the SEC collapses, I think it has to be the result of the B1G leaving the NCAA.

Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri, and Vanderbilt are all AAU and get added to scratch various itches for markets and academics. The B1G adds North Carolina, Virginia, and Miami (FL), Stanford, Florida State, and Notre Dame from the ACC. I think the B1G adds one of Georgia or Georgia Tech as well to get to 30.

Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Clemson, Louisville, LSU, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia/Georgia Tech join the Big 12.

The remains of the ACC and SEC band together.

I want some of what you're smoking.

No. No you don't.

(09-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Truth is more appealing than fiction. The conferences set parameters. The networks drive realignment. ESPN stood back as FOX took what it wanted from the PAC 12. They did so because Texas and Oklahoma needed an amicable settlement to leave early and FOX held the key. Whether ESPN incentivized Yormark to offer his own incentive to Colorado to get the finishing off of the PAC 12 underway or not remains in the realm of suspicion. It is fairly clear that the additions Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and B.Y.U. coupled with Texas and Oklahoma's cooperation on that matter was the beginning of the process. This process is now repeated in the ACC with the additions of Cal, Stanford, and S.M.U. I don't think those get added without some promises to North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami.

When this goes down, and it will go down, Clemson and Florida State to the SEC are very likely, Duke and North Carolina to the SEC are also very likely. Would the SEC want Duke? Probably not, but ESPN wants to keep them. Who the Big 10 wants and the SEC wants is irrelevant. Who ESPN wants to keep 100% access to is the only germane factor involved.


Assuming we move to 20 that would be all for the SEC. At that juncture Cal and Stanford who are being kept in the ACC for the Big 10, IMO, make their move. The SEC and Big 10 stand at 20. Now it could stay there amicably until 2036, or for the purposes of inventory and market reach we move to 24 each. At 24 each the ACC goes the way of the PAC 12 and the Big 12 grows.

ESPN is more interested in Virginia Tech, will want to keep all of Florida as that is part of their advertising strategy so Miami, has always loved Kansas, and helped them with a T3 deal in the past, so add them to the SEC. And now it comes down to how important is Atlanta to ESPN and the SEC? Is it as important as another new market? Perhaps, the addition is Georgia Tech, or perhaps the SEC adds for value, Louisville, or for that new market, Colorado. But those are the 3 plus one of the last 3 mentioned.

The Big 10 picks up Virginia and possibly Georgia Tech. If it wants Notre Dame it needs to pick up South Florida too.

But what if Notre Dame wants to remain neutral and independent? 5 games annually with the Big 10 and 5 games annually with the SEC, and 2 with the Big 12 should do it in a closed upper tier of 3 super conferences. Who does the Big 10 land then?

Virginia, N.C. State which is on most lists next 5 into AAU, possibly Georgia Tech, Utah and Colorado or Arizona/Arizona State?

The cost of UNC to the SEC will be Duke. ESPN will insist upon that and Miami. Virginia is culturally more similar to the Big 10, Virginia Tech more similar to Texas A&M, not necessarily the SEC. UGa carries 51% of Atlanta and 85% of the state. I'm not sure if Georgia Tech will be that important to ESPN. I think Georgia Tech will be in play for the Big 10.

The remainder possibly sans Wake Forest head to the Big 12.

SEC adds from the ACC: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech.

Big 10 adds from the ACC: California, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Stanford, Virginia, and Colorado for the market, or Utah for the football ability, but I'm betting Colorado for the market.

Both now stand at 24. Other than N.C. State the criteria of both conferences are met. Why an exception on N.C. State? They'll eventually be AAU and the state has nearly 11 million people.

Ah! But what if the Big 10 says no way to N.C. State? Well compromise would be needed.

Here is where the Magnificent 7 make sense.

The SEC adds Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Then they add Duke for that 8th school. But where's the compromise? Kansas and Missouri join Cal and Stanford in the Big 10 and that opens the door for the SEC to pick up Georgia Tech.

Now the Big 10 finishes out with 2 of Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.

The Big 12 which had grown to 14 with Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, and the the 4 corners to 16 now stands at 13 after losing 2 of the 4 corners and Kansas. They add South Florida, San Diego State, Oregon State, Washington State to get to 18. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville to get to 22. And then add Colorado State (if Colorado is picked up by the Big 10) and if not, Boise State, and Fresno State to move to 24.

ESPN will have protected the Deep South interests, which is what the SEC would prefer. FOX will have entry into Florida through UCF and USF, and into Texas with Baylor, T.C.U., Houston, and Texas Tech. FOX will have the West Coast except for 4 schools in the Big 12 where ESPN can draw a late game. 72 schools will have been included.

ESPN will have what it wants. FOX will have what it wants. The Big 12 will be the tweener owned by by both networks for T2 and T3 material. Notre Dame will remain a part of the upper tier but as an independent of sorts, but tied to all 3 of the other conferences for their 12 games.

SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

B1G:

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers.

Big 24:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

***Notre Dame schedules all 3 remains independent.

I'm not so sure about Cal and Stanford to the B1G, JRsec. The B1G had a chance to get them long before they went to the ACC, but the B1G passed. Considering how hard it was for Cal & Stanford to get in the ACC, I would be shocked if the B1G reversed course on those two at all. Stranger things have happened, but I would think the Arizona schools are a safer bet. I can see Colorado or Utah also.

(09-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina

Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

B1G:

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers.

Big 24:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

***Notre Dame schedules all 3 remains independent.

I think that for the most part, 3 divisions would work better for these conferences than 4:

SEC
East: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, NC State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Central: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
West: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington

Big 24
Atlantic: Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central: Baylor, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
Pacific: Arizona State, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State

I might add Memphis instead of Boise or Fresno and then bump Colorado State over to the Pacific Division.