Quote:Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has called out the CDC for being “anti-science,” and it looks like there’s one more thing that he could point to today that would support his claim.

There are two things that you look at when you are judging a virus — transmissibility and severity.

While the Wuhan coronavirus is quite transmissible, it’s not as severe in effect as, for instance, Ebola which has a far greater lethality.

But how transmissible is the new Delta variant that the Biden bunch are flipping out over?

The CDC claimed on July 26 in a slide show presentation that it was as contagious as chickenpox — one of the most contagious viruses ever.

Then, of course, the media spread that everywhere. Notice the assistance of Dr. Zeke Emanuel in promoting that claim.

Naturally, that makes people then overreact to the news.

But as NPR reports, this wasn’t true.

Evolutionary biologist and biostatistician Tom Wenseleers at the University of Leuven in Belgium explained the difference between the Delta variant and chickenpox transmissibility. The R0 or “R naught” is the number of people a sick person will infect, on average, when the entire population is vulnerable to the virus. For chickenpox, that number is around 9 or 10 people. For the Delta variant, it is less, he said — somewhere between 6 and 7. Still highly transmissible, and more than the original strain which was between 2 and 3, but not the same as chickenpox.

So how did they get this so wrong, saying it was “just as transmissible?”

For one, the leaked document underestimated the R0 for chickenpox and overestimated the R0 for the delta variant. “The R0 values for delta were preliminary and calculated from data taken from a rather small sample size,” a federal official told NPR. The value for the chickenpox (and other R0s in the slideshow) came from a graphic from The New York Times, which wasn’t completely accurate.

Whoops. Once again making comments and policy based upon something that’s just wrong and would justify more fear. So how are they being held accountable for spreading stuff like this that is just wrong?

Link

One more tidbit added to that long list of 'mis-information'...

All errors always go in the same narrative direction.

Even if this were true...

all of the other diseases are plotted by a point. We can read the axis label and know where it falls.

But covid and delta are plotted by large boxes. Where's the plot point?

Is it as transmissible as chicken pox, more, less?

Is it as deadly as measles and the swine flu, more less?

I can't tell by the graph. But it sure looks scary.

If people were to look at the true numbers, they would see that:

1. Covid is less transmissable than many other diseases, with some strains equal to the flu.

2. Covid is less fatal, and in some age groups, far less fatal than the common flu.

Imagine being dumb enough to think this is the only time theyve lied.

(08-11-2021 02:18 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  

Quote:Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has called out the CDC for being “anti-science,” and it looks like there’s one more thing that he could point to today that would support his claim.

There are two things that you look at when you are judging a virus — transmissibility and severity.

While the Wuhan coronavirus is quite transmissible, it’s not as severe in effect as, for instance, Ebola which has a far greater lethality.

But how transmissible is the new Delta variant that the Biden bunch are flipping out over?

The CDC claimed on July 26 in a slide show presentation that it was as contagious as chickenpox — one of the most contagious viruses ever.

Then, of course, the media spread that everywhere. Notice the assistance of Dr. Zeke Emanuel in promoting that claim.

Naturally, that makes people then overreact to the news.

But as NPR reports, this wasn’t true.

Evolutionary biologist and biostatistician Tom Wenseleers at the University of Leuven in Belgium explained the difference between the Delta variant and chickenpox transmissibility. The R0 or “R naught” is the number of people a sick person will infect, on average, when the entire population is vulnerable to the virus. For chickenpox, that number is around 9 or 10 people. For the Delta variant, it is less, he said — somewhere between 6 and 7. Still highly transmissible, and more than the original strain which was between 2 and 3, but not the same as chickenpox.

So how did they get this so wrong, saying it was “just as transmissible?”

For one, the leaked document underestimated the R0 for chickenpox and overestimated the R0 for the delta variant. “The R0 values for delta were preliminary and calculated from data taken from a rather small sample size,” a federal official told NPR. The value for the chickenpox (and other R0s in the slideshow) came from a graphic from The New York Times, which wasn’t completely accurate.

Whoops. Once again making comments and policy based upon something that’s just wrong and would justify more fear. So how are they being held accountable for spreading stuff like this that is just wrong?

Link

One more tidbit added to that long list of 'mis-information'...

So CDC does their research using the Fake New York Times???

(08-11-2021 03:59 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Even if this were true...

all of the other diseases are plotted by a point. We can read the axis label and know where it falls.

But covid and delta are plotted by large boxes. Where's the plot point?

Is it as transmissible as chicken pox, more, less?

Is it as deadly as measles and the swine flu, more less?

I can't tell by the graph. But it sure looks scary.

Not to defend, by my guess is they simply don’t have enough data to create a definitive point, hence the range box and why the delta box is bigger than the original strain box. The delta box will get smaller as the data piles up.

What would be interesting is to see the early range of the box for the original strain to see which way it has been tightening. My guess is down and to the left.

Also note that they used a log scale on the death “Y” axis. That makes the grouping look much tighter than it actually is and make delta appear more deadly than it really is.

(08-12-2021 08:47 AM)banker Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 03:59 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Even if this were true...

all of the other diseases are plotted by a point. We can read the axis label and know where it falls.

But covid and delta are plotted by large boxes. Where's the plot point?

Is it as transmissible as chicken pox, more, less?

Is it as deadly as measles and the swine flu, more less?

I can't tell by the graph. But it sure looks scary.

Not to defend, by my guess is they simply don’t have enough data to create a definitive point, hence the range box and why the delta box is bigger than the original strain box. The delta box will get smaller as the data piles up.

What would be interesting is to see the early range of the box for the original strain to see which way it has been tightening. My guess is down and to the left.

Also note that they used a log scale on the death “Y” axis. That makes the grouping look much tighter than it actually is and make delta appear more deadly than it really is.

I agree 100%. We haven't had a pandemic in 100 years so mistakes are going t be made.

When Trump said he was going to take America back who knew this is what he meant?

(08-12-2021 10:59 AM)Danforth Wrote:  

(08-12-2021 08:47 AM)banker Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 03:59 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Even if this were true...

all of the other diseases are plotted by a point. We can read the axis label and know where it falls.

But covid and delta are plotted by large boxes. Where's the plot point?

Is it as transmissible as chicken pox, more, less?

Is it as deadly as measles and the swine flu, more less?

I can't tell by the graph. But it sure looks scary.

Not to defend, by my guess is they simply don’t have enough data to create a definitive point, hence the range box and why the delta box is bigger than the original strain box. The delta box will get smaller as the data piles up.

What would be interesting is to see the early range of the box for the original strain to see which way it has been tightening. My guess is down and to the left.

Also note that they used a log scale on the death “Y” axis. That makes the grouping look much tighter than it actually is and make delta appear more deadly than it really is.

I agree 100%. We haven't had a pandemic in 100 years so mistakes are going t be made.

When Trump said he was going to take America back who knew this is what he meant?

you have no idea what you are talking about. you are exihibit "A" as to why I hope the one good thing to come of covid is the destruction of the public education system.

The CDC is a weapon being used against the people.

(08-11-2021 06:29 PM)shere khan Wrote:  Imagine being dumb enough to think this is the only time theyve lied.

Exactly, the CDC has been anything but apolitical and transparent about the entire thing. This is one example, as is their recent incorrect reporting of numbers in Florida. How many times have they mislead the public, and the government wonders why there is a large group of people who don't trust any of their rhetoric.

Their narrative this entire time is IF you are exposed you WILL contract it. IF you are not "vaccinated" then you hospitalized and probably die.

(08-12-2021 11:03 AM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  The CDC is a weapon being used against the people.

name an empire that has not weaponized propagana throughout the history of species…

the end result has always been the same - revolt/repeat

what is different today?! ……. #muhUSDdrivesTTTheBus

@getReadyForImpact

(08-12-2021 10:59 AM)Danforth Wrote:  

(08-12-2021 08:47 AM)banker Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 03:59 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Even if this were true...

all of the other diseases are plotted by a point. We can read the axis label and know where it falls.

But covid and delta are plotted by large boxes. Where's the plot point?

Is it as transmissible as chicken pox, more, less?

Is it as deadly as measles and the swine flu, more less?

I can't tell by the graph. But it sure looks scary.

Not to defend, by my guess is they simply don’t have enough data to create a definitive point, hence the range box and why the delta box is bigger than the original strain box. The delta box will get smaller as the data piles up.

What would be interesting is to see the early range of the box for the original strain to see which way it has been tightening. My guess is down and to the left.

Also note that they used a log scale on the death “Y” axis. That makes the grouping look much tighter than it actually is and make delta appear more deadly than it really is.

I agree 100%. We haven't had a pandemic in 100 years so mistakes are going t be made.

When Trump said he was going to take America back who knew this is what he meant?

Well if that's the case then it's common sense not to put something out there if they have no clue if it's true or not. They do it anyway to spread the fear. It's not that they aren't sure about the data, it's that they put that data out anyway.

The Delta variant is still more contagious than the original Covid virus so people should be more concerned than they were before.

(08-16-2021 12:26 PM)Danforth Wrote:  The Delta variant is still more contagious than the original Covid virus so people should be more concerned than they were before.

that hasnt been proven.

RSV is more contagious, and we know there's an outbreak of that at the moment, and we know some of the tests were giving false positives for covid when a person had rsv.

(08-12-2021 02:45 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(08-12-2021 10:59 AM)Danforth Wrote:  

(08-12-2021 08:47 AM)banker Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 03:59 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Even if this were true...

all of the other diseases are plotted by a point. We can read the axis label and know where it falls.

But covid and delta are plotted by large boxes. Where's the plot point?

Is it as transmissible as chicken pox, more, less?

Is it as deadly as measles and the swine flu, more less?

I can't tell by the graph. But it sure looks scary.

Not to defend, by my guess is they simply don’t have enough data to create a definitive point, hence the range box and why the delta box is bigger than the original strain box. The delta box will get smaller as the data piles up.

What would be interesting is to see the early range of the box for the original strain to see which way it has been tightening. My guess is down and to the left.

Also note that they used a log scale on the death “Y” axis. That makes the grouping look much tighter than it actually is and make delta appear more deadly than it really is.

I agree 100%. We haven't had a pandemic in 100 years so mistakes are going t be made.

When Trump said he was going to take America back who knew this is what he meant?

Well if that's the case then it's common sense not to put something out there if they have no clue if it's true or not. They do it anyway to spread the fear. It's not that they aren't sure about the data, it's that they put that data out anyway.

Do you honestly think that the CDC is spreading wrong information to spread fear?

Why? What exactly does this do for them? Be specific. What is the end game?

Show your work dumbforth, show us the data that says the Delta variant is more contagious than the original Covid. Hard evidence, not CNN spew.

(08-16-2021 02:31 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Show your work dumbforth, show us the data that says the Delta variant is more contagious than the original Covid. Hard evidence, not CNN spew.

Read the OP. It says it there in black and white.

At this point the CDC is less reliable than CNN. Try again.

(08-16-2021 03:08 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  At this point the CDC is less reliable than CNN. Try again.

So you don't think the Delta variant is more contagious? Why?

Why would they lie about that?