(04-25-2020 11:28 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-25-2020 11:18 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  You need to lay off the fear porn. No where but the now discredited original models from a British University has anyone projected millions of deaths.

One day future history books will mark 2020 as the end of the Age of Reason.

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I don't defend bad models. But have had to make models with my own ass on the line for the outcome:

1. Any public model built by people who may get their ass fired have to err on the side of human life
2. I don't remember anyone building hospital avoidance into their models. Duke and UNC are freaking ghost towns and I have had business at both places recently. I don't think that people took into account that people would avoid the emergency room and avoid the stupid things they do on ladders, mowers, and in automobiles. Even the usual suspects selling drugs in Durham have been on their best behavior. My wife heard one guy say something to the effect of "I need to pop a cap in Rollo, but I'm going to wait until I can do it without getting the Covid".
3. Most of the deaths are were in the secondary and tertiary parts of the model - like in a nuclear exchange. Maybe a third get vaporized, but a secondary group dies of secondary diseases and injuries, then a tertiary group dies to the break down of the supply chain.
4. Did you think people would stay home? I did not.
5. The real pistol is that version that seems to have come from Italy will indeed kill some young people and it seem inexplicable now even though the numbers are low. Are they vappers? Do they sniff glue? Do they get a lot of particulates in their lungs duing past activities? Do they have rarer form of HIV or one of the Hepatitis's? Are they one of the numerous kids who used to die in early childhood that sciences now keeps alive? It could be one or all of these factors but you may not even know these factors about yourself. Do you live in a apartment with heavy metal gassing, do you have certain allergy comorbidity in the spring?
6. It will take 2-3 to tease all that out if ever. When I lived in western NC we knew people who lived near an old abandoned copper/gold mine. Every family in that valley had something a little weird about them only a handful were full blown cancer cases
7. I think you need to look back a sex before birth control for an indication of the risk people will take - Do I engage in pokey and risk preganancy? If I get pregnant what will mommy and daddy say? etc., etc. Right now the defined risk is just not well known even thow we know the odds are in our favor not to die, just like one episdode of intercourse was not likely to produce pregnancy.

The reason we can't effectively deal with this is that we shy away from pricing the value of human life.

The Department of Transportation does it every day with highway design but no one slams them. We don't want to look like ass holes for looking at the cost of life. We don't want to look un-Christian for saying someone has used all they should use.

Let's set aside for the moment the question of Jesus' divinity. Remember he told you to get your ox out the ditch on the sabbath and he never told you to put religious dogma over loving your neighbor. What would Jesus recommend if he was not going to heal all the sick and make N-95 masks appear out of thing air. How would he describe honoring your parents in view of a pandemic?

Jesus never said go forth and be stupid. Jesus recommends frugality and thrift and good investments. Would Jesus consider spending tens of thousands of dollars on the elderly to be honoring them? Or would he consider ministering and treating their progeny as the true honor of the old? Jesus accepts his fate on the cross to help his "children".

I really think if you dispense with Paul's dogmatic weirdness, and the Old Testaments apologies for bad Jewish behavior what you are left with is a Jesus centric philosophy akin to the Jefferson Bible where Jesus recommends good common sense with an open heart and that common sense is key to navigating the storm.

Usually I can only get Methodist, Unitarians, Presbyterians, and left wing Baptists to hear my ideas.

(04-25-2020 12:37 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 07:01 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 06:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

The death toll is over-reported to the point where we're recording near zero pneumonia deaths nationally right now. The infection rate is under-reported based on actual rigorous sampling done in NYC and LA.

Not all decisions are as clean as they sound. Every 1% increase in unemployment leads to an increase in deaths somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000+ due to various reasons (suicide, heart attack, homicide, etc). The total unemployment claims right now are at over 20%. That's 1930's Great Depression era stuff. This cannot continue. The timeline on a vaccine is 18 months if they get it right the first time. We going to pack in the economy until Summer 2021? Something has gotta give. If we're just going to shut it all down again in Fall through Winter through Spring or with every wave or flare up then in the end Sweden will come through in flying colors by comparison.

As a former CQE, it's obvious from the degree of variability country to country that there are some flaws in how it's being collected. That said, it's pretty clear that the mortality rate is quite high.

As for your assertion that 1% unemployment results in 30,000 deaths - that doesn't seem to correlate with recent recession. But I do agree that 20% unemployed is Great Depression stuff. This is society-altering either way.

Random sampling for antibodies in LA suggests the actual mortality rate is around 0.1-0.3% ... just a touch above seasonal flu. This is because the random antibody testing found ENORMOUSLY more people with the antibodies than we claim active or recovered cases. Many multiples times more. That drags the mortality rate way way down.

That 0.1-0.3% mortality rate implies that more than 90% of the people who catch the Coronavirus never even go to the hospital... it makes me think either the test is giving lots of false positives, or there were a lot of COVID-19 deaths which were blamed on something else -- it's too much of an outlier.

I'm going on record now that I think the true/final mortality rate of this disease is around 4%. That may not scare some people, but it's a lot worse than influenza.

However, I'll also admit that the data collection leaves a lot to be desired - which could be skewing the number by an order of magnitude -- in either direction, tbh.

https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2020/04/br...ps-to.html

This is definitely a positive sign that we're ready to get back to normal. But hockey in July doesn't seem right lol.

Cuse planning on having students on campus this Fall with a cavaet...if allowed

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/202...eport.html

https://watchstadium.com/ncaas-football-...4-27-2020/

Quote:The NCAA’s Football Oversight Committee has suggested a six-week period before returning to play, sources told Stadium.

The six-week period will not be officially recommended until the committee receives the necessary approval of the NCAA COVID-19 Advisory Panel. That approval could come later this week, sources said. The six-week time frame, if formally approved, is significant because it would give universities a better indication of when exactly the college football season could start, a time frame that’s dependent on allowing students to return to campus this fall in the first place.

The season is scheduled to start Aug. 29 with seven games involving 12 FBS teams, meaning student-athletes would need to report around July 20 to get the necessary six weeks in. The remaining 118 FBS schools do not play their opener until the following week between Thursday, Sept. 3 and Monday, Sept. 7. Those schools would need to report around July 27.

If student-athletes are not able to return to campus by late July or early August, it’s likely that the season would not begin on time as scheduled.

Since the six-week guideline has not been formally approved, it’s unknown if the six-week period would be mandatory or whether football programs could receive exemptions to play with only four or five weeks to prepare since universities could be opening up fall classes on different dates.

“Right now, we’re progressing as if we can be playing football [as scheduled],” a source said. “But it’s like trying to predict the weather — you never know.”

Quote:On Monday, Florida coach Dan Mullen said SEC coaches would prefer to have eight weeks to prepare for a season, but he added that six weeks would work. Four weeks, he said, and “you’re pressing it.” Other coaches have recommended anywhere between four and 10 weeks to get players ready for games.

Once the timeframe is approved, then the Oversight Committee will work on determining what those six weeks would look like regarding strength and conditioning timeframes before returning to the field, number of practices allowed, the possibility of two-a-day practices and a multitude of other factors that may require tweaking/rewriting of some current NCAA rules.

“You don’t want to overreact, but we have to be prepared,” an industry source said. “You prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Five months [until the scheduled start of the season] is still a long time away.”

6 weeks could mean more early upsets... those ACC non-conference games will be CRUCIAL to success of the league.

Next year if played will be a weird year...I expect several ACC teams surprise both up and down.

(04-29-2020 11:44 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  Next year if played will be a weird year...I expect several ACC teams surprise both up and down.

Here's hoping the Pennsylvania doesn't allow Penn State to practice until the week before the season begins...

My friend runs the lunch program for Jefferson County Public Schools here in Louisville. She was in a meeting today with Ky Education Commissioner. Unless something positive happens soon, Kentucky public schools will be delayed starting this fall. Projected start in October.

High school football practice starts in July. Schools usually start in mid August here. Neither will happen this summer without a miracle.

I don’t know how this translates to universities in Kentucky but I cannot see post secondary starting classes if primary and secondary are delayed.

(04-29-2020 05:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  My friend runs the lunch program for Jefferson County Public Schools here in Louisville. She was in a meeting today with Ky Education Commissioner. Unless something positive happens soon, Kentucky public schools will be delayed starting this fall. Projected start in October.

High school football practice starts in July. Schools usually start in mid August here. Neither will happen this summer without a miracle.

I don’t know how this translates to universities in Kentucky but I cannot see post secondary starting classes if primary and secondary are delayed.

That's the thing also... Just because an area hasn't been hit hard, doesn't mean students that attend such universities aren't coming from an area that was hit hard IE California students attending Oregon and Washington or NY/NJ students attending Pitt or Louisville.

Dubious source, so take it FWIW

https://247sports.com/college/south-caro...slZl837W70

Quote:With a number of scenarios having been thrown around about how to safely proceed with the season, South Carolina athletic director Ray Tanner mentioned on Friday that the conferences “might not be aligned” if the sport were to be played this year. In an interview with CBS Sports, Tanner clarified his comments about the potential of a 2020 college football season.

"My point in answering the question was [that] I think everything is on the table," Tanner said. "I can't imagine that -- if there are certain parts of the country that are open and they're safe and the numbers are suitable they're back to outdoor activities and congregating -- they're not going to not play. I didn't think my comment was newsworthy.”

In essence, Tanner was referring to the conferences playing a schedule composed of only league games, instead of including the typical three to four non-conference games for each team. If conferences have a different set of policies in dealing with the pandemic this fall, then it may just be easier for each conference to play out its own season.

If you live in California, the chances of dying from Covid19 are 00.03%.

(04-30-2020 05:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  If you live in California, the chances of dying from Covid19 are 00.03%.

I'd say play the games

Everyone going assumes the risk

Don't go if you have a compromised system. School X should be able to resell your seats if you turn them in. However, you should get right of first refusal the next season again as long as make the required donations.

(04-30-2020 05:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  If you live in California, the chances of dying from Covid19 are 00.03%.

If you are saying that 0.03% of the California population has already died of Covid-19, you may be accurate but the vast majority of the population of California hasn't already had Covid-19 which makes that percentage meaningless. The best information we have suggests a lethality rate of 0.5% to 0.8%. If the entire U.S. population gets Covid-19 that would mean 1.6 to 2.6 million deaths. You cool with that?

(04-30-2020 07:59 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 05:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  If you live in California, the chances of dying from Covid19 are 00.03%.

If you are saying that 0.03% of the California population has already died of Covid-19, you may be accurate but the vast majority of the population of California hasn't already had Covid-19 which makes that percentage meaningless. The best information we have suggests a lethality rate of 0.5% to 0.8%. If the entire U.S. population gets Covid-19 that would mean 1.6 to 2.6 million deaths. You cool with that?

Since economics seems to always be weighted so heavily, consider this: most of the biggest donors at every school are in the high-risk age group.

(04-30-2020 07:31 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 05:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  If you live in California, the chances of dying from Covid19 are 00.03%.

I'd say play the games

Everyone going assumes the risk

Don't go if you have a compromised system. School X should be able to resell your seats if you turn them in. However, you should get right of first refusal the next season again as long as make the required donations.

The problem with the "assume the risk" theory is that people who "assume the risk" aren't just endangering themselves. They endanger everyone they come in contact with and those other people weren't trying to assume any risk. If you allow people to attend athletic events there is the potential for rapidly spreading a disease which kills many. Saying you "assume the risk" of attending an athletic event is like saying you "assume the risk" of driving with very poor eyesight. You're at risk for driving with very poor eyesight but so is everyone else on the road and they didn't assume the risk of you driving with very poor eyesight. You have no right to inflict that risk on others.

with freedom, we all get the option to choose. That is how it should be.

(04-30-2020 08:12 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:31 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 05:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  If you live in California, the chances of dying from Covid19 are 00.03%.

I'd say play the games

Everyone going assumes the risk

Don't go if you have a compromised system. School X should be able to resell your seats if you turn them in. However, you should get right of first refusal the next season again as long as make the required donations.

The problem with the "assume the risk" theory is that people who "assume the risk" aren't just endangering themselves. They endanger everyone they come in contact with and those other people weren't trying to assume any risk. If you allow people to attend athletic events there is the potential for rapidly spreading a disease which kills many. Saying you "assume the risk" of attending an athletic event is like saying you "assume the risk" of driving with very poor eyesight. You're at risk for driving with very poor eyesight but so is everyone else on the road and they didn't assume the risk of you driving with very poor eyesight. You have no right to inflict that risk on others.

Nobody is going to force you to leave your home for the big scary world. You can stay curled up in the fetal position in your blanket fort trying to suck your thumb through your useless homemade mask while the rest of the world gets on with their lives.