(04-23-2020 09:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 04:03 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Whether we have college football this Autumn isn't up to ADs or football coaches. It's up to the Board of Trustees of the schools. They'll make decisions on whether to allow students back on campus in September. If they do, we can have college football. If they don't, we don't have college football. Our desire to watch college sports is irrelevant. The issue is whether it's safe for students, faculty and staff to re-open.

My opinion is that no matter how much progress we seem to make in tamping down Covid-19 this Spring and Summer, it won't be nearly enough to safely re-open the universities. Even if it looks like Covid-19 has been backed into a corner it may well rebound once the weather cools off. For that matter, it's not at all clear that warm weather will make much difference. There's plenty of Covid-19 now in very warm places like Singapore, India, Egypt and Brazil.

You best hope that there’s football in the fall because if there isn’t there’s a good chance you’ll never see college athletics at the same level again.

Very possible I'm afraid.

While college football is seemingly controlled by well heeled boosters who are themselves higher risk takers and Republicans, the actual universities are controlled by low risk taking Democrats. Most of you here are old enough to have been treated as an adult in college - that's not been the case in more than decade. Colleges and Universities are also baby sitters and this is built into their governance models. You don't have to like it, but you do have to deal with it. Whereas adulthood used to be reached at about 18, it's now been pushed off into the 20's.

The college administrator can only deal with so many mad a hell parents and only so many bad media exposes. The result is an increasingly less risk averse society. The News ARM of Fox does not present a bad slice of the news, but their entertainment talking heads pander to conspiracy theory, pyramid scheme joining, under educated people. Their entertainment heads do not attempt to appeal to real, main line Republicans.

The effort today to understand the news requires you to scan the three networks, listen to Chris Wallace and one morning news segment on Fox, Anderson Cooper and the early morning Allison Camerota, MSNBC's Finance Woman, Rachel Maddow, and then Brian Williams. Then periodically you have to check out Bloomberg, Newsy, PBS, Drudge, and the occasional foreign source. That's a lot of work to get some semblance of the unvarnished truth.

Peppered around these folks are people who just entertain, and some who bald face lie. How many Americans have the time to wade through this?

There is nothing great about the Swedish model.

The problem in the United States is that inequality is so great, regional differences are so great, and cultural morals and folk ways are so different that not only can one size not fit all, some areas are negatively impacted by what works well in other areas.

It will take confidence to restart the economy and football. Trump has shot his wad on this with too many lies and these stupid daily press briefings are a horror. In an attempt to keep the Presidency, Trump will destroy anything and anyone he has to so that come November of this year, we are likely to remain trapped in a world devoid of someone who can fully rebuild confidence.

(04-24-2020 10:42 AM)nole Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 10:21 AM)Indytarheel Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 07:07 PM)nole Wrote:  It is all the rage to group think and demand nothing opens. But don't forget.

*No students on campus, hundrends of universities will lose ungodly amounts of money. Some universities will close permenately. College towns will be in depression states, business will close down.

*No football this fall equals hundreds of athletic non revenue teams being cut. Thousands of scholarship students will loser their scholarship.


The scale isn't just the 47K that have died in the US....how many will die from economic depression? Suicides, alchololism, etc. This problem is MUCH MUCH more complicated than "everyone stay home until there are 0 deaths"

So, money is more important than death. By the way, lose the false equivalencies you are trying to make with suicides, alchololism, etc. Aside from a drunk getting behind the wheel and driving or a dope fiend killing for money, all of those things are self inflicted and does not pose a threat to anyone else. Opposed to COVID which is a extremely infectious disease that can spread asymptomatically. Your argument is right on cue with injecting/ ingesting disinfectant and/or exposing your body to UV radiation.

So Sweden is choosing death?

Or, if people calm down some from the non stop panic driven narrative, you might realize there are more options than just "you are choosing death".

I hate the lack of nuance in debate in today's day.

In essence yes. Sweden decided to keep its borders open unlike America and the rational is sound. The virus is already there; it serves no purpose now since the country never established a baseline as to how many are infected. Sweden has double the amount of cases compared to Denmark and Finland, its neighbors. And yes, I understand that Sweden have a larger population. Sweden have not reach herd immunity yet and there is no guarantee that it will in the coming weeks as projected. In fact, there is pressure for strict social distancing guidelines, now. 17567 confirmed cases with 2152 deaths and all around their largest city. Sweden left it up to its citizens to do the right thing when social distancing. When you have idiots protesting because you can't get a haircut.... yeah, I see what you are saying, Swedes seem a lot more discipline than Americans.

By the way, what are the options?

It’s still too early to predict what will happen in the fall of 2020. Currently, there is very limited data (deaths, seriously ill patients and easily transmitted nature of the virus). During the next several months, there will be much more important insights...for example, how many folks actually got the virus and established antibodies; how the virus spreads differently among age or gender or race or ethnicity; whether or not testing and monitoring becomes so prevalent that it can be used to manage public health; etc.

(04-24-2020 11:08 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 09:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 04:03 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Whether we have college football this Autumn isn't up to ADs or football coaches. It's up to the Board of Trustees of the schools. They'll make decisions on whether to allow students back on campus in September. If they do, we can have college football. If they don't, we don't have college football. Our desire to watch college sports is irrelevant. The issue is whether it's safe for students, faculty and staff to re-open.

My opinion is that no matter how much progress we seem to make in tamping down Covid-19 this Spring and Summer, it won't be nearly enough to safely re-open the universities. Even if it looks like Covid-19 has been backed into a corner it may well rebound once the weather cools off. For that matter, it's not at all clear that warm weather will make much difference. There's plenty of Covid-19 now in very warm places like Singapore, India, Egypt and Brazil.

You best hope that there’s football in the fall because if there isn’t there’s a good chance you’ll never see college athletics at the same level again.

Very possible I'm afraid.

What does that even mean? No more excessive television timeouts? No more 84 different uniform combinations for every single team? No more million dollar investments into campus sports facilities?

The bubble was going to burst eventually.

(04-24-2020 12:26 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 11:08 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 09:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 04:03 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Whether we have college football this Autumn isn't up to ADs or football coaches. It's up to the Board of Trustees of the schools. They'll make decisions on whether to allow students back on campus in September. If they do, we can have college football. If they don't, we don't have college football. Our desire to watch college sports is irrelevant. The issue is whether it's safe for students, faculty and staff to re-open.

My opinion is that no matter how much progress we seem to make in tamping down Covid-19 this Spring and Summer, it won't be nearly enough to safely re-open the universities. Even if it looks like Covid-19 has been backed into a corner it may well rebound once the weather cools off. For that matter, it's not at all clear that warm weather will make much difference. There's plenty of Covid-19 now in very warm places like Singapore, India, Egypt and Brazil.

You best hope that there’s football in the fall because if there isn’t there’s a good chance you’ll never see college athletics at the same level again.

Very possible I'm afraid.

What does that even mean? No more excessive television timeouts? No more 84 different uniform combinations for every single team? No more million dollar investments into campus sports facilities?

The bubble was going to burst eventually.

As others have mentioned the is social and demographic shift that is reducing the value of the first two years of college. The "Animal House" version of college is gone. The need to duck the Vietnam War is gone. Try getting a legitimate professor teaching a freshman or sophmore class at State or Carolina for instance. What you get is an angry graduate students. I have cussed out several for producing students that made a B but could not in fact master the problems. If you got a B at State College in the late 70's in differential equations, by God you were a math master. If you got a B in Micro Biology at Carolina you were ready for the Medical School Today's kids have to pick that up either at the Community College or the Prep School. Them that don't get a degree in History or Psychology.

There are too many schools attempting to compete at the highest level in football, and there are too many schools with business schools, centers that study xy and z, and the attempts to make the liberal arts fully relevant has led to Professors that focus on issues so narrow as to mean nothing to society at large.

It's not sustainable in this manner.

Harvard, Yale, Duke, UNC, State, WF, Clemson, etc., will all survive and thrive, but 20% of the university capacity in this country needs to go away.

(04-24-2020 11:27 AM)Statefan Wrote:  higher risk takers and Republicans, the actual universities are controlled by low risk taking Democrats

Both of those are the opposite of the normative traits within the parties.

(04-24-2020 07:08 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 01:11 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I don't think we'll see football until March-May of 2021. Don't foresee many universities hosting classes on campus this fall when the 2nd wave hits at the same time as the season flu this fall. And would it really be worth to get 2-3 games in September to prove some point? The 2nd wave will be much worse than this first wave. And unfortunately, it's going to take years-decades for our economy to recover, if it ever does.

You think top players are going to want to play right before the NFL draft?

Of course they're not going to want to play. But we live in extraordinary times.

(04-24-2020 01:13 PM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 12:26 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 11:08 AM)Statefan Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 09:46 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 04:03 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  Whether we have college football this Autumn isn't up to ADs or football coaches. It's up to the Board of Trustees of the schools. They'll make decisions on whether to allow students back on campus in September. If they do, we can have college football. If they don't, we don't have college football. Our desire to watch college sports is irrelevant. The issue is whether it's safe for students, faculty and staff to re-open.

My opinion is that no matter how much progress we seem to make in tamping down Covid-19 this Spring and Summer, it won't be nearly enough to safely re-open the universities. Even if it looks like Covid-19 has been backed into a corner it may well rebound once the weather cools off. For that matter, it's not at all clear that warm weather will make much difference. There's plenty of Covid-19 now in very warm places like Singapore, India, Egypt and Brazil.

You best hope that there’s football in the fall because if there isn’t there’s a good chance you’ll never see college athletics at the same level again.

Very possible I'm afraid.

What does that even mean? No more excessive television timeouts? No more 84 different uniform combinations for every single team? No more million dollar investments into campus sports facilities?

The bubble was going to burst eventually.

As others have mentioned the is social and demographic shift that is reducing the value of the first two years of college. The "Animal House" version of college is gone. The need to duck the Vietnam War is gone. Try getting a legitimate professor teaching a freshman or sophmore class at State or Carolina for instance. What you get is an angry graduate students. I have cussed out several for producing students that made a B but could not in fact master the problems. If you got a B at State College in the late 70's in differential equations, by God you were a math master. If you got a B in Micro Biology at Carolina you were ready for the Medical School Today's kids have to pick that up either at the Community College or the Prep School. Them that don't get a degree in History or Psychology.

There are too many schools attempting to compete at the highest level in football, and there are too many schools with business schools, centers that study xy and z, and the attempts to make the liberal arts fully relevant has led to Professors that focus on issues so narrow as to mean nothing to society at large.

It's not sustainable in this manner.

Harvard, Yale, Duke, UNC, State, WF, Clemson, etc., will all survive and thrive, but 20% of the university capacity in this country needs to go away.

I am lucky in that I can teach as an adjunct in the traditional sense (as in I don't do it for my income), and I can attest to the issues with higher education in this country. Attending college has become a cultural rite of passage rather than a practical pathway to a career. Professors don't retire, and if they do (with full benefits), some still come back and teach classes essentially taking jobs away from their own students.

Nowadays, a recent PhD grad has the bright career outlook of being a full-time adjunct.

The Duke President has appointed a committee to study reopening. It's supposed to issue a preliminary report by June 1.
https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/20...-recession

That time frame isn't favorable for a recommendation to reopen this fall. There will no way to say on June 1 that Duke or any school can safely reopen in the fall. Covid-19 isn't going away over the next 36 days. Of course, the report may recommend waiting longer to make a decision on re-opening but the time frame given suggests Duke won't reopen in the fall, at least not generally. I can imagine re-opening just for students who have Covid-19 antibodies.

In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

(04-24-2020 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

The death toll is over-reported to the point where we're recording near zero pneumonia deaths nationally right now. The infection rate is under-reported based on actual rigorous sampling done in NYC and LA.

Not all decisions are as clean as they sound. Every 1% increase in unemployment leads to an increase in deaths somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000+ due to various reasons (suicide, heart attack, homicide, etc). The total unemployment claims right now are at over 20%. That's 1930's Great Depression era stuff. This cannot continue. The timeline on a vaccine is 18 months if they get it right the first time. We going to pack in the economy until Summer 2021? Something has gotta give. If we're just going to shut it all down again in Fall through Winter through Spring or with every wave or flare up then in the end Sweden will come through in flying colors by comparison.

(04-24-2020 06:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

The death toll is over-reported to the point where we're recording near zero pneumonia deaths nationally right now. The infection rate is under-reported based on actual rigorous sampling done in NYC and LA.

Not all decisions are as clean as they sound. Every 1% increase in unemployment leads to an increase in deaths somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000+ due to various reasons (suicide, heart attack, homicide, etc). The total unemployment claims right now are at over 20%. That's 1930's Great Depression era stuff. This cannot continue. The timeline on a vaccine is 18 months if they get it right the first time. We going to pack in the economy until Summer 2021? Something has gotta give. If we're just going to shut it all down again in Fall through Winter through Spring or with every wave or flare up then in the end Sweden will come through in flying colors by comparison.

As a former CQE, it's obvious from the degree of variability country to country that there are some flaws in how it's being collected. That said, it's pretty clear that the mortality rate is quite high.

As for your assertion that 1% unemployment results in 30,000 deaths - that doesn't seem to correlate with recent recession. But I do agree that 20% unemployed is Great Depression stuff. This is society-altering either way.

(04-24-2020 07:01 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 06:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

The death toll is over-reported to the point where we're recording near zero pneumonia deaths nationally right now. The infection rate is under-reported based on actual rigorous sampling done in NYC and LA.

Not all decisions are as clean as they sound. Every 1% increase in unemployment leads to an increase in deaths somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000+ due to various reasons (suicide, heart attack, homicide, etc). The total unemployment claims right now are at over 20%. That's 1930's Great Depression era stuff. This cannot continue. The timeline on a vaccine is 18 months if they get it right the first time. We going to pack in the economy until Summer 2021? Something has gotta give. If we're just going to shut it all down again in Fall through Winter through Spring or with every wave or flare up then in the end Sweden will come through in flying colors by comparison.

As a former CQE, it's obvious from the degree of variability country to country that there are some flaws in how it's being collected. That said, it's pretty clear that the mortality rate is quite high.

As for your assertion that 1% unemployment results in 30,000 deaths - that doesn't seem to correlate with recent recession. But I do agree that 20% unemployed is Great Depression stuff. This is society-altering either way.

Random sampling for antibodies in LA suggests the actual mortality rate is around 0.1-0.3% ... just a touch above seasonal flu. This is because the random antibody testing found ENORMOUSLY more people with the antibodies than we claim active or recovered cases. Many multiples times more. That drags the mortality rate way way down.

(04-24-2020 06:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

The death toll is over-reported to the point where we're recording near zero pneumonia deaths nationally right now. The infection rate is under-reported based on actual rigorous sampling done in NYC and LA.

Not all decisions are as clean as they sound. Every 1% increase in unemployment leads to an increase in deaths somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000+ due to various reasons (suicide, heart attack, homicide, etc). The total unemployment claims right now are at over 20%. That's 1930's Great Depression era stuff. This cannot continue. The timeline on a vaccine is 18 months if they get it right the first time. We going to pack in the economy until Summer 2021? Something has gotta give. If we're just going to shut it all down again in Fall through Winter through Spring or with every wave or flare up then in the end Sweden will come through in flying colors by comparison.

Great analysis. Thank you for full picture.

OT--The Cape Cod League just cancelled their season for this coming summer.

(04-25-2020 12:37 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 07:01 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 06:15 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-24-2020 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  In case anyone cares, here are the critical numbers for COVID-19 in Sweden:
#Deaths: 2,152
Recovered: 550
Nearly 4X as many have died as recovered there.


Also, just to put things into perspective:
Kenan Stadium seating capacity: 50,500
USA death toll from Coronavirus: 51,692

The death toll is over-reported to the point where we're recording near zero pneumonia deaths nationally right now. The infection rate is under-reported based on actual rigorous sampling done in NYC and LA.

Not all decisions are as clean as they sound. Every 1% increase in unemployment leads to an increase in deaths somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000+ due to various reasons (suicide, heart attack, homicide, etc). The total unemployment claims right now are at over 20%. That's 1930's Great Depression era stuff. This cannot continue. The timeline on a vaccine is 18 months if they get it right the first time. We going to pack in the economy until Summer 2021? Something has gotta give. If we're just going to shut it all down again in Fall through Winter through Spring or with every wave or flare up then in the end Sweden will come through in flying colors by comparison.

As a former CQE, it's obvious from the degree of variability country to country that there are some flaws in how it's being collected. That said, it's pretty clear that the mortality rate is quite high.

As for your assertion that 1% unemployment results in 30,000 deaths - that doesn't seem to correlate with recent recession. But I do agree that 20% unemployed is Great Depression stuff. This is society-altering either way.

Random sampling for antibodies in LA suggests the actual mortality rate is around 0.1-0.3% ... just a touch above seasonal flu. This is because the random antibody testing found ENORMOUSLY more people with the antibodies than we claim active or recovered cases. Many multiples times more. That drags the mortality rate way way down.

I guess that’s why the Covid-19 death rate in NYC resembles that of the seasonal flu. Right?

Denial isn’t a river in Africa.

(04-25-2020 10:14 AM)Hallcity Wrote:  I guess that’s why the Covid-19 death rate in NYC resembles that of the seasonal flu. Right?

Denial isn’t a river in Africa.

If you'd bother to test the entire population for antibodies that's entirely probable. Trying to calculate a mortality rate when you don't have enough tests to go around and you aren't sampling the stay at home population is a fool's errand. Your numbers may be more credible than China but they're still statistically dubious at best. The only hard data we have from an actual sampling and testing of the population is out of SoCal. And it suggests the infection rate is radically higher than reported and thus the mortality rate is radically lower than reported. And that's before we get to the whole "anybody coughing who dies gets put down as a COVID-19 death with or without a test for it" malarky going on nationally.

(04-23-2020 07:25 PM)Hallcity Wrote:  

(04-23-2020 07:07 PM)nole Wrote:  It is all the rage to group think and demand nothing opens. But don't forget.

*No students on campus, hundrends of universities will lose ungodly amounts of money. Some universities will close permenately. College towns will be in depression states, business will close down.

*No football this fall equals hundreds of athletic non revenue teams being cut. Thousands of scholarship students will loser their scholarship.


The scale isn't just the 47K that have died in the US....how many will die from economic depression? Suicides, alchololism, etc. This problem is MUCH MUCH more complicated than "everyone stay home until there are 0 deaths"

The idea of a couple of million Americans dead from Covid-19 doesn’t phase you or you just can’t imagine that you or anyone you know could die from Covid-19?

The reality is that by the time this is over we’ll all be touched by Covid-19.

Would you want to be a university dean explaining to the family of a student or faculty member who died from Covid-19 why your school was opened to students in the midst of a pandemic?

You need to lay off the fear porn. No where but the now discredited original models from a British University has anyone projected millions of deaths.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

(04-25-2020 11:18 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  You need to lay off the fear porn. No where but the now discredited original models from a British University has anyone projected millions of deaths.