The RPI forecast that he's using is actually very accurate. And each day we go along, it gets more and more accurate. It's a very educated guess.

(11-29-2017 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The RPI forecast that he's using is actually very accurate. And each day we go along, it gets more and more accurate. It's a very educated guess.

for those that don't know about the site-
http://rpiforecast.com/

one great thing about it is you can see your team and what RPI would equate with each record your team could possibly have...

for instance for Houston for them to get a RPI of 51, they're going to need to finish at 21-9.

I think I know the problem. All these football fans don't know squat about basketball and how all of this works.

Makes sense now.

(11-29-2017 01:11 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 01:02 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 12:54 PM)Rocky Mountain Shock Wrote:  I like how one or maybe two Shocker fans make a few hyperbolic claims (and are even called out by other Shocker fans) and suddenly ALL Shocker fans are "cocky" or "delusional" or whatever.

It's a good thing we don't judge every Cincy or Tulsa or Husky fan by one or two posters here.

It’s because thinking we’re going to win the AAC means we’re “delusional” to a lot of them because we’ve “never been tested.”

When we do win the AAC suddenly no one will care about how all the Wichita State fans were right and the goalposts will move to “let us know when you win the national championship” or “you weren’t as good as us in the 1970s” or “you will suck when Marshall leaves.”

no one cares that you think that you are going to win..its the win by 30 comments, our backups would beat you comments, the this league is trash comments after ever loss, the extreme overhyping comments...

...again, that one or two guys say.

Stop. Generalizing.

For. God's. Sake.

(11-29-2017 01:27 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 01:22 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 12:54 PM)Rocky Mountain Shock Wrote:  I like how one or maybe two Shocker fans make a few hyperbolic claims (and are even called out by other Shocker fans) and suddenly ALL Shocker fans are "cocky" or "delusional" or whatever.

It's a good thing we don't judge every Cincy or Tulsa or Husky fan by one or two posters here.

You forgot Houston fan. Don’t forget Houston fan. He knows basketball.

Feeling like Rocky was throwing some shade my way. It wasn't "Cincy or Tusla or UCONN fan."

So to him I say:

Hahaha. I see how you thought that, but it ain't you.

We good bro.

(11-29-2017 01:22 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(11-29-2017 12:54 PM)Rocky Mountain Shock Wrote:  I like how one or maybe two Shocker fans make a few hyperbolic claims (and are even called out by other Shocker fans) and suddenly ALL Shocker fans are "cocky" or "delusional" or whatever.

It's a good thing we don't judge every Cincy or Tulsa or Husky fan by one or two posters here.

You forgot Houston fan. Don’t forget Houston fan. He knows basketball.

Ah yes, thanks for the reminder.

(11-28-2017 02:45 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:37 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Is 250 considered the cutoff for acceptable SOS?

I don't think there is a line for 'acceptable.' For example, it doesn't make sense for Tulane to play a Top 30 OOC SOS. Tulane is trying to get up off the mat and get the program going with some wins. Getting blitzed by a bunch of Top 50 teams doesn't help them, or the league.

That's a good point, and it's why it is hard to do anything at the conference level with regards to scheduling. Different programs are in different places and have different needs.

Can't expect rebuilding school X to commit seasonal suicide so that contending school Y has a better RPI come tournament selection time.

UCONN 13
Temple 15
Wichita State 77
SMU 109
UCF 143
Tulsa 184
Memphis 202
Houston 223
Tulane 242
Cincinnati 289
South Florida 346
East Carolina 349

Largest change: Memphis improved 63 spots
Average change: 26 spots

(11-28-2017 03:30 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  Doing the math, I'm not sure your numbers are accurate. UC is at 284 now playing already the worst of their schedule, with 4 straight Top 50 opponents to come. Hard to see how that only jumps them up 14 spots in SoS.

Wrong.

(11-28-2017 11:15 PM)CornellCoog Wrote:  It's way too early to be looking at RPIs much less a predictor. Some teams haven't played a road game yet and some have only played trash.

There's no way our SOS will be that weak. We've got Arkansas, LSU, Providence, Wake Forest, and St. Louis on the schedule and we only play one SWAC/MEAC type team (rpi killer).

Wrong.

(11-29-2017 12:11 AM)pesik Wrote:  and so we dont rely to much on this. literally 2 games ago houston had one of the better projected rpi ooc schedule....fairfield, st louis and lsu were all projected top 100 rpi by the projector....to show you how drastic this changes on a daily basis...there is no where near enough of sample size to project rpi at this point in the season

Wrong.

(11-29-2017 12:24 AM)CornellCoog Wrote:  Also, you clearly do not know how the rpi works and why it's way too earlier to use it to measure anything. As of right now, Prairie View A&M is predicted to be our third toughest out of conference game. Tougher than Wake. Tougher than LSU. Tougher than St Louis.

Wrong.

(11-29-2017 02:24 AM)CornellCoog Wrote:  Hey Einstein, the simple point is we are not even in December yet. Using the rpi right now is meaningless. Using the predictor is stupid.

Wrong.

(11-29-2017 07:32 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  lol at getting panties in a wad over RPI and SOS in November.


WSU fans is so stupid....

Wrong.




RPIForecast.com does have a PayPal donation link on his website to help support the wonderful (and free) service he provides. I don't know who he is but he provides a great service to college basketball fans that can even be used as early as November!

Quote:and so we dont rely to much on this. literally 2 games ago houston had one of the better projected rpi ooc schedule....fairfield, st louis and lsu were all projected top 100 rpi by the projector....to show you how drastic this changes on a daily basis...there is no where near enough of sample size to project rpi at this point in the season

pleease explain how this wrng..

since this thread, our expected OOC SoS Forecasts jumped 40 spots


My point of it being too early seems actually backed with the forecast now.

(12-24-2017 02:00 PM)pesik Wrote:  

Quote:and so we dont rely to much on this. literally 2 games ago houston had one of the better projected rpi ooc schedule....fairfield, st louis and lsu were all projected top 100 rpi by the projector....to show you how drastic this changes on a daily basis...there is no where near enough of sample size to project rpi at this point in the season

pleease explain how this wrng..

since this thread, our expected OOC SoS Forecasts jumped 40 spots


My point of it being too early seems actually backed with the forecast now.

Should've focused on this portion:

Quote: .there is no where near enough of sample size to project rpi at this point in the season

Quote:And before you say projections can be wrong, I understand that. But KU isn't losing every game the rest of the season. East Carolina isn't going undefeated. Houston is finishing with a bad OoC SoS. Wichita State is finishing with a good OoC SoS. That is my freaking point. We have enough data to make reasonable assumptions about where teams and numbers are going to end up. Your projected SoS is not going to change 200+ spots throughout the course of the season.

(11-28-2017 02:37 PM)STL_Wave Wrote:  Is 250 considered the cutoff for acceptable SOS?

150 IMO - epecially if a team wants a good seed & wants to compete in the post-season.

(11-28-2017 02:34 PM)AndShock Wrote:  I put this on ShockerNet, figured I'd post here to generate some discussion. Excuse the crappy formatting.

OoC SoS Forecasts
UCONN 11
Temple 27
Wichita State 35
Memphis 139
SMU 153
UCF 164
Tulsa 236
Tulane 255
Houston 261
Cincinnati 270
South Florida 346
East Carolina 347

East Carolina -
South Florida - I'm going to hope that schedule was put together by the previous coaching staff. 346 is even in a complete rebuild.
Cincinnati - Are you guys too poor to afford good buy games like Wichita State?
Houston - I thought you were supposed to compete for an at-large this year? Not with that schedule!

Everyone else is fine with gold stars for Temple and UCONN (even though UCONN sucks).

ECU has a long history of this. No help to the conference.

It’s easy to critize Cincy for scheduling buy games but on the flip side many teams won’t play UC home and home or play UC at all do the risk they lose. Example UK Indiana, Notre Dame, WVU, Illinois, Tennessee, Vandy which are all regional schools refuse to schedule. Add all Big 12 Schools, have been asked but won’t play UC in Cincinnati or at all. So if any of you can get Kansas or Syracuse to play home and home I sure Mick will do it.

(12-25-2017 02:42 PM)kyucat Wrote:  It’s easy to critize Cincy for scheduling buy games but on the flip side many teams won’t play UC home and home or play UC at all do the risk they lose. Example UK Indiana, Notre Dame, WVU, Illinois, Tennessee, Vandy which are all regional schools refuse to schedule. Add all Big 12 Schools, have been asked but won’t play UC in Cincinnati or at all. So if any of you can get Kansas or Syracuse to play home and home I sure Mick will do it.

You don't have to schedule the ChicKUns or the Oranges to keep your SOS above 150. Usually when a coach puts together a Cupcake Parade, it's for the purpose of inflating his W/L and protecting his job. There is never a good reason for a program at Cincy's level to carry a SOS of 270. In fact, it's actually harmful to the program in the near, medium, and long-term. It is far better to be 8-4 with a SOS of 40 than 12-0 with a SOS of 270. The boys will be MUCH better for it.


T


...

(12-25-2017 03:26 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-25-2017 02:42 PM)kyucat Wrote:  It’s easy to critize Cincy for scheduling buy games but on the flip side many teams won’t play UC home and home or play UC at all do the risk they lose. Example UK Indiana, Notre Dame, WVU, Illinois, Tennessee, Vandy which are all regional schools refuse to schedule. Add all Big 12 Schools, have been asked but won’t play UC in Cincinnati or at all. So if any of you can get Kansas or Syracuse to play home and home I sure Mick will do it.

You don't have to schedule the ChicKUns or the Oranges to keep your SOS above 150. Usually when a coach puts together a Cupcake Parade, it's for the purpose of inflating his W/L and protecting his job. There is never a good reason for a program at Cincy's level to carry a SOS of 270. In fact, it's actually harmful to the program in the near, medium, and long-term. It is far better to be 8-4 with a SOS of 40 than 12-0 with a SOS of 270. The boys will be MUCH better for it.


Again. You don’t know the effort Mick goes though to get teams to,play UC home or away. So don’t make accusation about things you know nothing about. UC wants regional opponents which includes Big Ten, SEC, ACC. UC has a home date with Ohio State (first time in Cincinnati since 1921) lined up for next year. Plus UCLA at home for the first time ever.


...

(12-25-2017 05:43 PM)kyucat Wrote:  

(12-25-2017 03:26 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-25-2017 02:42 PM)kyucat Wrote:  It’s easy to critize Cincy for scheduling buy games but on the flip side many teams won’t play UC home and home or play UC at all do the risk they lose. Example UK Indiana, Notre Dame, WVU, Illinois, Tennessee, Vandy which are all regional schools refuse to schedule. Add all Big 12 Schools, have been asked but won’t play UC in Cincinnati or at all. So if any of you can get Kansas or Syracuse to play home and home I sure Mick will do it.

You don't have to schedule the ChicKUns or the Oranges to keep your SOS above 150. Usually when a coach puts together a Cupcake Parade, it's for the purpose of inflating his W/L and protecting his job. There is never a good reason for a program at Cincy's level to carry a SOS of 270. In fact, it's actually harmful to the program in the near, medium, and long-term. It is far better to be 8-4 with a SOS of 40 than 12-0 with a SOS of 270. The boys will be MUCH better for it.


Again. You don’t know the effort Mick goes though to get teams to,play UC home or away. So don’t make accusation about things you know nothing about. UC wants regional opponents which includes Big Ten, SEC, ACC. UC has a home date with Ohio State (first time in Cincinnati since 1921) lined up for next year. Plus UCLA at home for the first time ever.

...

[/quote]

Hey, I know you can read. You don't have to schedule h/h with Power 7 schools in order not to have a dog **** OOC schedule.

There are dozens of top mid-majors who would line up for a H/H with Cincy. I don’t know if that would damage future scheduling opportunities but let’s not act like the only option is to have a horrible schedule. The only option with Mick’s philosophy is to have a horrible schedule, that might mean it’s time to change the philosophy.

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