(10-18-2017 03:36 PM)Gamecock Wrote: (10-16-2017 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote: (10-16-2017 03:35 PM)Gamecock Wrote: (10-16-2017 10:09 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: I may be an optimist but I count TN as a "safe bet." We should beat Southern Miss, and that means we only have to beat two of Vandy, Missou, LSU, and KY.
You're likely correct. I just put everyone with 2-3 wins in that category and everyone with 4-5 in the Safe Bets category. Tennessee probably makes it barring an epic collapse.
Until the coaching issue isn't front burner at UT I wouldn't consider any of those to be likely wins. Mizzou is playing better. Kentucky is sneaky good and should be unbeaten. L.S.U. is hot & cold and if you hit them when they are hot you are in trouble. And Vandy hates your guts! Quite frankly I wouldn't even consider Southern Miss to be a slam dunk. Tennessee should win, but So. Miss isn't incapable of pulling an upset.
The best I can say is that Tennessee has a shot at all of them, but certainly there are no guaranteed wins there.
Personally I'd love to see them keep losing. We recruit against Tennessee a ton and it could only help South Carolina.
In general, Tennessee has been hurt the last 20 years by the rise of Va Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, and occasionally UNC. Those schools have been closing the borders to the Carolinas and Virginia and it's really robbed Tennessee of it's traditional recruiting turf.
I'd offer a different take. Because Tennessee has hired a succession of people who have never recruited South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia as head coaches, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, and Clemson have improved. Add to that when Richt became Georgia's coach he emphasized in State and Florida and ignored the states North of South Carolina and suddenly two groups were leaving more on the table. But that didn't matter while Spurrier was serious because he had recruited those areas while at Duke, and he picked up the slack. I would say that the recent success of Clemson and the Carolina schools is a direct result of Fulmer being gone, Dooley and the Goff being gone, and Spurrier leaving.
Why is Tennessee weak now? Butch never recruited those areas. If Tennessee wants a great new hire then they need to pony up for Fuente. He recruits those areas and already knows Tennessee.
Why did Saban do well at Alabama? Because he first coaches at L.S.U.. That put his recovery plan at Alabama two years ahead of schedule because he didn't have to learn the area and make connections with high school coaches.
These A.D.'s that go for a hot name from outside the region had better give those folks 5 solid years before firing them. A great coach cant succeed in 3 years at an SEC school that recruits from areas unfamiliar to him.
Tubby did well at Auburn because he recruited for Miami and Ole Miss and knew the terrain of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama already. Chiz didn't know the area that well. He spent two years as a D.C. at Auburn before he was off to Texas and then Iowa State. Gus has the same deficit and his high number of kids that transfer out have killed any cred he may have built. If Auburn fires him we need a guy who knows the area.
Anytime a division suffers fruit basket turnover in coaching you wind up with the mess we have now in the East. It's the second time in my life it has been that way, but it wasn't as pronounced in the 70's because we weren't in divisions. McIlwain doesn't know the area! Muschamp knows Georgia and parts of Florida and parts of Alabama.
So the advice of an old man to the dipshit boosters and the butt covering A.D.'s is you don't go with the name of the day unless he knows your area intimately because it's going to take him 3 years before he can even know how to get the recruits otherwise.