La. Tech has a high chance of getting the #2 spot as they have the fewest number of difficult games out of the teams who will most likely get first round byes. However, they do/did have to play @UAB, @MTSU, and @ODU (W) with no counter games. Only perk is Marshall at home.
UAB and MTSU also have favorable schedules. UAB gets LT and ODU at home with no return road trips. Marshall looks to be the most screwed (due to their schedule) overall with a lower overall chance of getting in unless they really turn the corner. Rice is probably out as they've already dropped head to heads to UAB, MTSU, and ODU, though they had a pretty favorable schedule against top teams with 5 of their 7 main games being at home.
At this point you're looking at the 4 byes being likely MTSU, La. Tech, UAB, and one of either ODU, Marshall, or Rice. Of course, anyone can drop random games against 300 RPI teams and then it's all up in the air
. UAB seems to like losing this Florida road trip most years. Hopefully this year we don't. And I really just don't see UTSA hanging on and somehow managing a top 4 spot, but who knows.
LT:
@ODU
Rice
@UAB
@MTSU
Marshall
@Rice
WKU
@Charlotte
UAB:
@MTSU
@Rice
Marshall
LT
ODU
@Marshall
MTSU
Charlotte
WKU
@WKU
ODU:
Rice
@Marshall
LT
@Rice
@MTSU
@UAB
Marshall
@WKU
WKU
@Charlotte
Charlotte
Marshall:
ODU
@MTSU
@UAB
@LT
UAB
MTSU
@ODU
Rice
Charlotte
WKU
@WKU
@Charlotte
MTSU:
UAB
@Rice
Marshall
LT
ODU
@Marshall
@UAB
WKU
@WKU
Charlotte
Rice:
@ODU
MTSU
UAB
@LT
ODU
LT
Marshall
Charlotte
@Charlotte
@WKU