(01-05-2017 01:48 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: But the odds of us finishing with additional 3-4 losses rest of the way and a conf finals appearance aren't too bad. I don't understand why anyone would think that's not a possibility. The chances are definitely higher than 1% and would squarely put us on the bubble.
I think the odds are not good is the main point.
Anything under 51% is poor odds to begin with.
If Ole Miss, SMU and Monmouth already jumped up and bit them, it's hard to fathom other teams similar in talent and ability won't be able to also exploit the known weaknesses.
If they don't win out, then to get on the bubble they'd still need a lot of help across the country too in terms of other bubble teams fading.
Is it a long shot? Absolutely. Is there "zero chance"? Absolutely not. The AAC will be a 2-3 bid league. You don't have to win the tourney. You just have to finish with the 2nd-3rd best resume. It can be done.
But that's beside the point in this thread. Where Saluki took us off the rails is by trying to shame a fan about having hope. Saluki doesn't think there's a chance? Fine. But don't tell the rest of us what we can and can't think or post about. That's the whole purpose of the board is to discuss things and possibilities.
And to say "it's possible" doesn't make you a "coach lover". That's about the most simplistic categorization I've seen here - which says a lot. All "possibility" says is you're a fan.
(01-04-2017 11:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote: Good lord. There is close to a zero percent probability Memphis gets an at large. Quit acting like we need to be worrying about opponent's wins and losses.
Every fan acts differently. Not everyone thinks like you Saluki. Thanks for telling the rest of us how to be a fan.
Good lord.
Not telling you, or anyone, HOW to be a fan.
I just wonder what level of basketball (or sports) knowledge some here have.
To think that Memphis is in any reasonable position for an at large is just silly. Memphis' current RPI is 115.
RPI forecast (which has been accurate over the years I have used it) shows that if Memphis finishes the season 16-1 (a .03% chance) they will have an RPI of 36.
Finish the season 14-2 (.28% chance) and Memphis will have an RPI of 45 (already on the bubble)
13-3 (1.52% chance) gets a 51 rpi and 12-4 (5% chance) is a 60 rpi (out).
The highest probability listed is Memphis going 20-11 (24% chance) for a final RPI of 101.
Basically, Memphis would have to go at least 13-3, then probably make it to the AAC final to have a shot at the bubble.
You can apologize now.
For someone who claims to be smarter than everyone else, your post indicates you don't know much about the current selection. Pretty commonly accepted that the committee devalues RPI these days for At Large selection. RPI comes into play for seeding - not making the tournament.
Conference standings, OOC results, and advanced metrics are what's used to get you in. Memphis is much better than 115 right now in advanced metrics. So your starting point is wrong to begin with. Easier to get in the 40's from our current position in the 70's.
And, besides, even if you just want to be simplistic and go by the RPI. There are At Large teams every year with RPI's in the 50's and 60's. You said that puts us "out" - but not so.
(01-04-2017 11:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote: Good lord. There is close to a zero percent probability Memphis gets an at large. Quit acting like we need to be worrying about opponent's wins and losses.
Zero percent? I don't think we'll get an at large, but I'm willing to make a friendly wager if you are willing to lay odds on a virtual guaranteed winner.
What are fair odds on a virtual 0% chance? 50:1?
Sorry, 1.83% chance Memphis finishes the season 14-3 or better.
So do you want to have a friendly wager or not? I'm game if the value is there. 50:1?
(01-04-2017 11:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote: Good lord. There is close to a zero percent probability Memphis gets an at large. Quit acting like we need to be worrying about opponent's wins and losses.
Zero percent? I don't think we'll get an at large, but I'm willing to make a friendly wager if you are willing to lay odds on a virtual guaranteed winner.
What are fair odds on a virtual 0% chance? 50:1?
Sorry, 1.83% chance Memphis finishes the season 14-3 or better.
So do you want to have a friendly wager or not? I'm game if the value is there. 50:1?
So we're talking I put up $100 to win $2? Sounds really tempting to rake in 8 quarters.
(01-04-2017 11:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote: Good lord. There is close to a zero percent probability Memphis gets an at large. Quit acting like we need to be worrying about opponent's wins and losses.
Every fan acts differently. Not everyone thinks like you Saluki. Thanks for telling the rest of us how to be a fan.
Good lord.
Not telling you, or anyone, HOW to be a fan.
I just wonder what level of basketball (or sports) knowledge some here have.
To think that Memphis is in any reasonable position for an at large is just silly. Memphis' current RPI is 115.
RPI forecast (which has been accurate over the years I have used it) shows that if Memphis finishes the season 16-1 (a .03% chance) they will have an RPI of 36.
Finish the season 14-2 (.28% chance) and Memphis will have an RPI of 45 (already on the bubble)
13-3 (1.52% chance) gets a 51 rpi and 12-4 (5% chance) is a 60 rpi (out).
The highest probability listed is Memphis going 20-11 (24% chance) for a final RPI of 101.
Basically, Memphis would have to go at least 13-3, then probably make it to the AAC final to have a shot at the bubble.
You can apologize now.
There you go again demeaning people's basketball knowledge. Until Memphis loses 3-4 more games, there's always a shot. I expect to win every game moving forward. Will it happen - probably not, but as a fan that's what we root for. There isn't a single team on the schedule that's unbeatable.
IMO there's a small shot at being on the bubble. You yourself did the math to prove that's the case even with 3 more losses. The likelihood is low but all I said was there's a chance. But you went ahead and did the unnecessary math which frankly all of us aware of. You start of saying you don't want to tell anyone how to be a FAN but then decide to proceed on demeaning folks' knowledge. Well done indeed. SMDH
LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2017 03:55 PM by tiger1016.)
(01-05-2017 03:54 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
Maybe.
I'd say some are more realistic than optimistic.
If I was forced to guess, I'd wager that there will be another nagging injury on the horizon, just based on the minutes load/disparity between the core 4 and the rest of the roster. Unless Tubby can somehow knock those minutes down.
And even if no injury, at that minutes level, I think they will eventually just run out of gas.
However, if Azab gets cleared and if Chad comes back by mid-February and if the flashes shown by Clergeot/Rivers/Randall become more consistent and if Randall gets back on track, etc...
(01-04-2017 11:34 PM)salukiblue Wrote: Good lord. There is close to a zero percent probability Memphis gets an at large. Quit acting like we need to be worrying about opponent's wins and losses.
Zero percent? I don't think we'll get an at large, but I'm willing to make a friendly wager if you are willing to lay odds on a virtual guaranteed winner.
What are fair odds on a virtual 0% chance? 50:1?
Sorry, 1.83% chance Memphis finishes the season 14-3 or better.
So do you want to have a friendly wager or not? I'm game if the value is there. 50:1?
So we're talking I put up $100 to win $2? Sounds really tempting to rake in 8 quarters.
I'm open to negotiation. You understand how odds work, right? Sure fire winners usually don't pay great odds. You seem to have a sure fire winner on your hands.
(01-05-2017 11:23 AM)3601 Wrote: Zero percent? I don't think we'll get an at large, but I'm willing to make a friendly wager if you are willing to lay odds on a virtual guaranteed winner.
What are fair odds on a virtual 0% chance? 50:1?
Sorry, 1.83% chance Memphis finishes the season 14-3 or better.
So do you want to have a friendly wager or not? I'm game if the value is there. 50:1?
So we're talking I put up $100 to win $2? Sounds really tempting to rake in 8 quarters.
I'm open to negotiation. You understand how odds work, right? Sure fire winners usually don't pay great odds. You seem to have a sure fire winner on your hands.
(01-05-2017 03:54 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
Maybe.
I'd say some are more realistic than optimistic.
If I was forced to guess, I'd wager that there will be another nagging injury on the horizon, just based on the minutes load/disparity between the core 4 and the rest of the roster. Unless Tubby can somehow knock those minutes down.
And even if no injury, at that minutes level, I think they will eventually just run out of gas.
However, if Azab gets cleared and if Chad comes back by mid-February and if the flashes shown by Clergeot/Rivers/Randall become more consistent and if Randall gets back on track, etc...
They could surprise.
But...lot of ifs.
Most of us are realistic IMO
We know the chances are low.
But take things one game at a time and going 14-3 or 13-4 rest of the way is not unfathomable. I'm gonna root for that until it's not a possibility. If and when we get our 4th loss from now, then all we can do is root for them to win the conf tourney. But demeaning others for even thinking that's a possibility as some folks tend to do is baffling to me. It's not like we are saying the team will go unbeaten. We are saying there's a chance to be on the bubble and if players keep improving they way they are, anything is possible, and frankly not totally unrealistic either. All I had said was it's not impossible to be on the bubble and some folks just jumped on that statement. The need to be RIGHT all the time by some posters is baffling.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2017 04:26 PM by tiger1016.)
(01-05-2017 03:54 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
Maybe.
I'd say some are more realistic than optimistic.
If I was forced to guess, I'd wager that there will be another nagging injury on the horizon, just based on the minutes load/disparity between the core 4 and the rest of the roster. Unless Tubby can somehow knock those minutes down.
And even if no injury, at that minutes level, I think they will eventually just run out of gas.
However, if Azab gets cleared and if Chad comes back by mid-February and if the flashes shown by Clergeot/Rivers/Randall become more consistent and if Randall gets back on track, etc...
They could surprise.
But...lot of ifs.
Most of us are realistic IMO
We know the chances are low.
But take things one game at a time and going 14-3 or 13-4 rest of the way is not unfathomable. I'm gonna root for that until it's not a possibility. If and when we get our 4th loss from now, then all we can do is root for them to win the conf tourney. But demeaning others for even thinking that's a possibility as some folks tend to do is baffling to me. It's not like we are saying the team will go unbeaten. We are saying there's a chance to be on the bubble and if players keep improving they way they are, anything is possible, and frankly not totally unrealistic either. All I had said was it's not impossible and some folks just jumped on that statement. The need to be RIGHT all the time by some posters is baffling.
I'd much more prefer I'm wrong and all those IFs break the Tigers way.
March is much more fun when the team gets its name called on Selection Sunday.
(01-05-2017 03:54 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
Maybe.
I'd say some are more realistic than optimistic.
If I was forced to guess, I'd wager that there will be another nagging injury on the horizon, just based on the minutes load/disparity between the core 4 and the rest of the roster. Unless Tubby can somehow knock those minutes down.
And even if no injury, at that minutes level, I think they will eventually just run out of gas.
However, if Azab gets cleared and if Chad comes back by mid-February and if the flashes shown by Clergeot/Rivers/Randall become more consistent and if Randall gets back on track, etc...
They could surprise.
But...lot of ifs.
Most of us are realistic IMO
We know the chances are low.
But take things one game at a time and going 14-3 or 13-4 rest of the way is not unfathomable. I'm gonna root for that until it's not a possibility. If and when we get our 4th loss from now, then all we can do is root for them to win the conf tourney. But demeaning others for even thinking that's a possibility as some folks tend to do is baffling to me. It's not like we are saying the team will go unbeaten. We are saying there's a chance to be on the bubble and if players keep improving they way they are, anything is possible, and frankly not totally unrealistic either. All I had said was it's not impossible and some folks just jumped on that statement. The need to be RIGHT all the time by some posters is baffling.
Well, hell, do you think we can get a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAAt if we run the table?
I'm keeping my eyes on teams ranked 12-18 right now and hoping for them to lose to make the 4 seed attainable. I just don't want to be the 4 in Ky's bracket.
Grow some thicker skin.
Geez, it was more of the worring about how USCe and OU are doing as they would relate to the SOS and "quality wins" stuff as well as how the NCAA factors wins with injured players calculus that what being discussed.
It was just funny that folks were doing the nitty gritty analysis for a situation that is rather remote.
Kinda like planning what you are going to buy after winning the lottery, but in a somewhat serious way.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2017 04:30 PM by salukiblue.)
(01-05-2017 11:48 AM)salukiblue Wrote: Sorry, 1.83% chance Memphis finishes the season 14-3 or better.
So do you want to have a friendly wager or not? I'm game if the value is there. 50:1?
So we're talking I put up $100 to win $2? Sounds really tempting to rake in 8 quarters.
I'm open to negotiation. You understand how odds work, right? Sure fire winners usually don't pay great odds. You seem to have a sure fire winner on your hands.
Haha. It's the $2 payday that is beneath me.
How high does the payday have to be to be worth your time, Daddy Warbucks? I'm willing to bet a lot more than $2.
(01-05-2017 03:18 PM)3601 Wrote: So do you want to have a friendly wager or not? I'm game if the value is there. 50:1?
So we're talking I put up $100 to win $2? Sounds really tempting to rake in 8 quarters.
I'm open to negotiation. You understand how odds work, right? Sure fire winners usually don't pay great odds. You seem to have a sure fire winner on your hands.
Haha. It's the $2 payday that is beneath me.
How high does the payday have to be to be worth your time, Daddy Warbucks? I'm willing to bet a lot more than $2.
I know you would. Hell, if I were you I'd bet $50 with a shot at getting $2,500. Problem is, I'm risk averse. Plus I wouldn't want to be in the spot to be having to decide to root for Memphis to lose giving up that kind of scratch. Charities depend upon my generosity.
(01-05-2017 03:54 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
Maybe.
I'd say some are more realistic than optimistic.
If I was forced to guess, I'd wager that there will be another nagging injury on the horizon, just based on the minutes load/disparity between the core 4 and the rest of the roster. Unless Tubby can somehow knock those minutes down.
And even if no injury, at that minutes level, I think they will eventually just run out of gas.
However, if Azab gets cleared and if Chad comes back by mid-February and if the flashes shown by Clergeot/Rivers/Randall become more consistent and if Randall gets back on track, etc...
They could surprise.
But...lot of ifs.
Most of us are realistic IMO
We know the chances are low.
But take things one game at a time and going 14-3 or 13-4 rest of the way is not unfathomable. I'm gonna root for that until it's not a possibility. If and when we get our 4th loss from now, then all we can do is root for them to win the conf tourney. But demeaning others for even thinking that's a possibility as some folks tend to do is baffling to me. It's not like we are saying the team will go unbeaten. We are saying there's a chance to be on the bubble and if players keep improving they way they are, anything is possible, and frankly not totally unrealistic either. All I had said was it's not impossible and some folks just jumped on that statement. The need to be RIGHT all the time by some posters is baffling.
Well, hell, do you think we can get a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAAt if we run the table?
I'm keeping my eyes on teams ranked 12-18 right now and hoping for them to lose to make the 4 seed attainable. I just don't want to be the 4 in Ky's bracket.
Grow some thicker skin.
Geez, it was more of the worring about how USCe and OU are doing as they would relate to the SOS and "quality wins" stuff as well as how the NCAA factors wins with injured players calculus that what being discussed.
It was just funny that folks were doing the nitty gritty analysis for a situation that is rather remote.
Kinda like planning what you are going to buy after winning the lottery, but in a somewhat serious way.
Umm...pot meet kettle
I made a few statements.
You were the one that threw a fit LOL and was out to prove a point. Take a chill pill saluki.
As for all the analysis....it was primarily you. You started on the wins and losses and took off with some in depth analysis. The rest of us piggy-backed on what you started.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2017 04:54 PM by tiger1016.)
(01-05-2017 03:54 PM)tiger1016 Wrote: LOL
Optimism is not a facet of some of the fans here
Heck, the Tigers have a better chance at the bubble than Carey did in that movie.
Maybe.
I'd say some are more realistic than optimistic.
If I was forced to guess, I'd wager that there will be another nagging injury on the horizon, just based on the minutes load/disparity between the core 4 and the rest of the roster. Unless Tubby can somehow knock those minutes down.
And even if no injury, at that minutes level, I think they will eventually just run out of gas.
However, if Azab gets cleared and if Chad comes back by mid-February and if the flashes shown by Clergeot/Rivers/Randall become more consistent and if Randall gets back on track, etc...
They could surprise.
But...lot of ifs.
Most of us are realistic IMO
We know the chances are low.
But take things one game at a time and going 14-3 or 13-4 rest of the way is not unfathomable. I'm gonna root for that until it's not a possibility. If and when we get our 4th loss from now, then all we can do is root for them to win the conf tourney. But demeaning others for even thinking that's a possibility as some folks tend to do is baffling to me. It's not like we are saying the team will go unbeaten. We are saying there's a chance to be on the bubble and if players keep improving they way they are, anything is possible, and frankly not totally unrealistic either. All I had said was it's not impossible and some folks just jumped on that statement. The need to be RIGHT all the time by some posters is baffling.
I'd much more prefer I'm wrong and all those IFs break the Tigers way.
March is much more fun when the team gets its name called on Selection Sunday.
You are not one of the posters that feel the need to be RIGHT all the time. There are a couple and they know who they are :)
Like you, I hope the breaks do go our way. Either way, it's been fun watching the team play and see the guys improving, some dramatically.
/
FWIW - South Carolina
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu/giphy.gif)
