Good lord. X has lost 6 in a row. How are they still in? What happened to looking at the final 10 games?

(03-02-2017 11:35 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Good lord. X has lost 6 in a row. How are they still in? What happened to looking at the final 10 games?

7th best schedule in the country

(03-02-2017 11:56 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-02-2017 11:35 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Good lord. X has lost 6 in a row. How are they still in? What happened to looking at the final 10 games?

7th best schedule in the country

Gotta beat somebody, they haven't with the team they'd be taking to the tournament. If they don't beat anyone besides DePaul without Sumner they should be out regardless of how weak the bubble is.

FYI I believe last 10 is no longer considered as part of the selection criteria

Correct, last 10 is not one of the metrics the committee is supposed to consider.

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(03-03-2017 12:11 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(03-02-2017 11:56 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-02-2017 11:35 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Good lord. X has lost 6 in a row. How are they still in? What happened to looking at the final 10 games?

7th best schedule in the country

Gotta beat somebody, they haven't with the team they'd be taking to the tournament. If they don't beat anyone besides DePaul without Sumner they should be out regardless of how weak the bubble is.

FYI I believe last 10 is no longer considered as part of the selection criteria

They did beat Creighton and I believe Seton Hall, but both were right after he went down. If they lose to DePaul, they are out.

You're right. That changes my perception slightly but Creighton was without their best player also. Still think they should need a win other than DePaul. If they were to lose to DePaul I think they'd need to get a notable win in NY

(03-03-2017 08:07 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  You're right. That changes my perception slightly but Creighton was without their best player also. Still think they should need a win other than DePaul. If they were to lose to DePaul I think they'd need to get a notable win in NY

If they lose to depaul they will have an rpi around 45 and they will finish 8th in the BE with a losing record (8-10).

They have a great strength of schedule. But SOS means nothing when it comes to how you do in your league. The BE should be a 5 or 6 bid league, there is no way they should get 8.

It might come down to choosing between X and Marquette who is ranked 7th. Considering Marquette spanked X twice, I think that would be a pretty easy decision.

At this moment, X isn't deserving of a bid. Crazy things happen in the conference tournaments and even this depleted squad has been in competitive games with some of the new BE competitors. So maybe a sweep of DePaul and a win in NYC and they climb to the top of the bubble. It's not a good place to be though. I look at the B10 this year and believe that Iowa or Ohio State could sneak into a championship game and steal a bid. That is not an uncommon scenario in the P5 and if it happens in 2 or 3 of those leagues watch out.

One fact is certain: it's great as UC fans not to be watching "the bubble" this year.

CBS bracketology updated today 3/3

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Has us as a 4 seed playing Monmouth. Next up would be winner of #5 Virginia versus #12 Nevada.

Next game would be vs. #1 seed Kansas

That would be a tough road. Kenpom has Virginia ranked #6 nationally, ironically ahead of Kansas which is #9.

UC vs Virginia. Talk about a 30-30 rock fight.

(03-03-2017 09:07 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  UC vs Virginia. Talk about a 30-30 rock fight.

The pre-game announcers would say this game is about to set basketball back 100 years.

I'm not sure how I would feel about that match-up. We have a great defense too and plenty of weapons, but I think I'd prefer to face teams that don't play very good defense as I think our defense can slow down a good offense and if they don't play defense very well, we can score in bunches.

(03-03-2017 08:56 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  At this moment, X isn't deserving of a bid. Crazy things happen in the conference tournaments and even this depleted squad has been in competitive games with some of the new BE competitors. So maybe a sweep of DePaul and a win in NYC and they climb to the top of the bubble. It's not a good place to be though. I look at the B10 this year and believe that Iowa or Ohio State could sneak into a championship game and steal a bid. That is not an uncommon scenario in the P5 and if it happens in 2 or 3 of those leagues watch out.

One fact is certain: it's great as UC fans not to be watching "the bubble" this year.

X's next three games are @ DePaul, DePaul ( 1st round ), then Butler.

Given that we will be in the 4-6 seed area and we take care of business in the first game; from a group of maybe 8-10 good basketball teams is our probable next opponent. Minnesota is a team in that group that I wouldn't mind seeing on our line; they don't have much NCAA experience. I hope they don't get cute and put West Virginia in our line of fire. Whoever lets just win. I have a real feeling that if we make it to the second weekend we are going to be very dangerous and someone teams will hate to face.

Looks like the odds on location are Buffalo, Milwaukee or Orlando. Orlando being most probable with two groups of 4 and 5 seeds located there; not the most desirable because of probably facing Florida or Florida State in our 2nd game.

(03-03-2017 09:06 AM)Eastside_J Wrote:  CBS bracketology updated today 3/3

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Has us as a 4 seed playing Monmouth. Next up would be winner of #5 Virginia versus #12 Nevada.

Next game would be vs. #1 seed Kansas

That would be a tough road. Kenpom has Virginia ranked #6 nationally, ironically ahead of Kansas which is #9.

I want no part of Virginia in a 4/5 type matchup. That's a team that takes away what we do best offensively (score inside the arc) like few other teams. That said I never worry about matchups until selection sunday. too many variables.

(03-03-2017 10:14 AM)cincybb51 Wrote:  Given that we will be in the 4-6 seed area and we take care of business in the first game; from a group of maybe 8-10 good basketball teams is our probable next opponent. Minnesota is a team in that group that I wouldn't mind seeing on our line; they don't have much NCAA experience. I hope they don't get cute and put West Virginia in our line of fire. Whoever lets just win. I have a real feeling that if we make it to the second weekend we are going to be very dangerous and someone teams will hate to face.

Looks like the odds on location are Buffalo, Milwaukee or Orlando. Orlando being most probable with two groups of 4 and 5 seeds located there; not the most desirable because of probably facing Florida or Florida State in our 2nd game.

Not sure West Virginia would be a bad draw given Huggins' teams often running out of gas in March. That's not meant as a shot at him as a coach either because he's been to two Final Fours.

(03-03-2017 11:36 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 10:14 AM)cincybb51 Wrote:  Given that we will be in the 4-6 seed area and we take care of business in the first game; from a group of maybe 8-10 good basketball teams is our probable next opponent. Minnesota is a team in that group that I wouldn't mind seeing on our line; they don't have much NCAA experience. I hope they don't get cute and put West Virginia in our line of fire. Whoever lets just win. I have a real feeling that if we make it to the second weekend we are going to be very dangerous and someone teams will hate to face.

Looks like the odds on location are Buffalo, Milwaukee or Orlando. Orlando being most probable with two groups of 4 and 5 seeds located there; not the most desirable because of probably facing Florida or Florida State in our 2nd game.

Not sure West Virginia would be a bad draw given Huggins' teams often running out of gas in March. That's not meant as a shot at him as a coach either because he's been to two Final Fours.

I'm mixed on WVU as a draw for UC. The advanced metrics loves them, I think they are likely going to be underseeded based on how good they really are. The counter to that is UC really protects the ball well. I think Caupain and Evans are ideal guys to go against that press and Clark is smart against pressure as well. You can make it difficult for WVU if you really protect the ball (hard to do against them). The counter to that is the couple times I remember teams trying put all out pressure on UC they struggled a bit, WVU would be that all game long.

I like how he has Iowa St. a seed ahead of us. Does he realized we beat them on their court?

(03-03-2017 12:25 PM)dsquare Wrote:  I like how he has Iowa St. a seed ahead of us. Does he realized we beat them on their court?

Who? Palm has Iowa State as a 7 and Lunardi as a 6.

(03-03-2017 12:25 PM)dsquare Wrote:  I like how he has Iowa St. a seed ahead of us. Does he realized we beat them on their court?

The committee does not care much about head to head results. It's always total body of work. Not going to argue the merits of us v. ISU specifically right now, but people overrate head to head stuff.

WVU is always going to be a little overrated on the advanced metrics as long as they play their current style (and have at least a good team). In the non-conf they are simply going to lay waste to lesser foes with their press, so where a normal very good team might win by 15-30, they are often going to win by 30-50 by virtue of the constant TOs and wearing the lesser opponents out. All of that gives extra juice to their metrics that really doesn't translate quite as well against better competition.

vs. Mount St. Mary's - 21 TOs (28.4%) - 87-59 Final
vs. Miss Valley St. - 26 TOs (30.6%) - 107-66 Final
vs. New Hampshire - 34 TOs (43.6%) - 100-41 Final
vs. Manhattan - 40 TOs (46%) - 108-61 Final
vs. Western Carolina - 34 TOs (45.3%) - 90-37 Final
vs. VMI - 22 TOs (31.4%) - 90-55 Final
vs. UMKC - 27 TOs (34.6%) - 112-67 Final
vs. Radford - 29 TOs (40.3%) - 84-57 Final
vs. Northern Kentucky - 25 TOs (32.9%) - 92-61 Final

So that's over a quarter of their schedule against teams that are going to be overcome by the relentless press (ranging from mediocre teams to very bad) - all won by at least 27 points. That is going to skew things favorably for them, but these games don't tell you much about how they it's going to go against evenly matched teams.