Anyone see how things could play out where the Sun Belt and CUSA merge?

The TV money is not great, so why not merge and have an East and West division with a Championship game?

Can't happen. Here's why

1) Too many teams. There are 26 teams between the conferences
2) If any team is unhappy, they'll vote no on the merger. Too many teams vote no, no merger.
3) Too many teams will not be happy with this. La Tech won't play with ULM. USM might have problems playing with USA etc.

Mergers are hard. The Sun Belt did one before. But that was a situation when the numbers were there.

I vote we just pick from a decimated CUSA to get to 12. The Sun Belts future is bright.

(07-29-2016 06:24 PM)Coastal12 Wrote:  I vote we just pick from a decimated CUSA to get to 12. The Sun Belts future is bright.

That is also unlikely. Unless the Big 12 goes to 14 and so does the MWC and the AAC backfills to 12. In that scenario, CUSA would lose 4 or more teams. UTEP, Rice, Marshall, and USM. In that scenario, MTSU and WKU would probably be interested in a return. But that's unlikely.

(07-29-2016 06:24 PM)Coastal12 Wrote:  I vote we just pick from a decimated CUSA to get to 12. The Sun Belts future is bright.

Winner!

Until the Big XII signaled they were expanding I would have said merger isn't the path, shuffling geographically was the answer.

Now I see a different landscape.

1. AAC's TV contract permits cancellation if any two of Houston, Cincinnati, Temple and UConn leave or one of those four plus another. I don't expect ESPN will cancel but will reduce the payment and reduce the guaranteed exposures.
2. MWC's commissioner opening the door to going beyond 12 after the league rejected expansion in the spring signals that he thinks they will be lucky to hold what they have when their deal is up (2020 I believe).

I wouldn't be shocked if the MAC doesn't have the best G5 TV deal from 2021 to 2027 since they are locked in.

The CFP distribution can be changed if they want to, if AAC, Sun Belt, CUSA agreed on a plan that ends the penalty for having more than 10 they can do it (even easier if MWC is on board).

Never going to happen but a mega league that bundles all or nearly all of the G5 or the leagues tossing their rights into one pile and getting paid based on appearances is the only hope for a significant G5 TV deal. As it stands if you say you won't play Tuesday someone else will knock you down to run to ESPN and offer to play then.

Only other sensible option is geographic realignment and that still has the ego issue.

(07-29-2016 07:08 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Until the Big XII signaled they were expanding I would have said merger isn't the path, shuffling geographically was the answer.

Now I see a different landscape.

1. AAC's TV contract permits cancellation if any two of Houston, Cincinnati, Temple and UConn leave or one of those four plus another. I don't expect ESPN will cancel but will reduce the payment and reduce the guaranteed exposures.
2. MWC's commissioner opening the door to going beyond 12 after the league rejected expansion in the spring signals that he thinks they will be lucky to hold what they have when their deal is up (2020 I believe).

I wouldn't be shocked if the MAC doesn't have the best G5 TV deal from 2021 to 2027 since they are locked in.

The CFP distribution can be changed if they want to, if AAC, Sun Belt, CUSA agreed on a plan that ends the penalty for having more than 10 they can do it (even easier if MWC is on board).

Never going to happen but a mega league that bundles all or nearly all of the G5 or the leagues tossing their rights into one pile and getting paid based on appearances is the only hope for a significant G5 TV deal. As it stands if you say you won't play Tuesday someone else will knock you down to run to ESPN and offer to play then.

Only other sensible option is geographic realignment and that still has the ego issue.

There is another option rather than form a mega conference for TV rights and giving up the benefits of multiple autobids. Form a partnership and either hire or create a 3rd party organization to manage the multimedia rights and negotiation for the leagues.

AAC loses 3 and only refills with 1 to remain at 10:
Rice
MWC expands into TX taking UTEP and UTSA
Leaving 21 schools in CUSA and SBC.
I would merge the 2 creating four divisions with an extra game of playoffs. I'd negotiate our champion getting a New Year's Day game or Playoff spot if ranked in the Top 15.
C-USA
Atlantic Division
FIU
FAU
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion
Mountain Division
Appalachian St
Marshall
WKU
MTSU
Arkansas St
Piedmont Division
Charlotte
Georgia St
UAB
Troy
ULM
Gulf Division
USA
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana
Texas St


I left out UNT

A mega conference brings only one thing to the table from a media standpoint. The teams at the top will garner more interest from a greater number of fans from across the league. This may be the catalyst that brings an exponential gain in tv revenue for both. More regional rivalries and little if any impact for the less competitive but they share in the increase in revenue. Sorta reminds of the old adage two people working together get more done than two working alone. This could happen sooner rather than later. I'm not a fan of it but "follow the money".

(07-29-2016 07:30 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  A mega conference brings only one thing to the table from a media standpoint. The teams at the top will garner more interest from a greater number of fans from across the league. This may be the catalyst that brings an exponential gain in tv revenue for both. More regional rivalries and little if any impact for the less competitive but they share in the increase in revenue. Sorta reminds of the old adage two people working together get more done than two working alone. This could happen sooner rather than later. I'm not a fan of it but "follow the money".

No way there is an exponential gain. The top schools aren't caoable of doing that. The mega conference would be lucky to keep the same per school payout. The worst part of that is it would be a short lived deal - if the top school truly did command the revenue then they would break off as soon as they could to keep the money for themselves.

You don't want to merge, that would lose an autobid to the NCAA tournament.

(07-29-2016 07:37 PM)rokamortis Wrote:  

(07-29-2016 07:30 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  A mega conference brings only one thing to the table from a media standpoint. The teams at the top will garner more interest from a greater number of fans from across the league. This may be the catalyst that brings an exponential gain in tv revenue for both. More regional rivalries and little if any impact for the less competitive but they share in the increase in revenue. Sorta reminds of the old adage two people working together get more done than two working alone. This could happen sooner rather than later. I'm not a fan of it but "follow the money".

No way there is an exponential gain. The top schools aren't caoable of doing that. The mega conference would be lucky to keep the same per school payout. The worst part of that is it would be a short lived deal - if the top school truly did command the revenue then they would break off as soon as they could to keep the money for themselves.

Problem with that theory is that it presumes the TV networks don't view the G5 as interchangeable widgets. When MWC ditched ESPN, WAC got more money to take the weeknight games and late starts that MWC had provided.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday (and Thursday on ESPNU) as well as Saturday ESPNNews slots the primary issue is something they can brand as major college football to fill the slot.

If Conference X won't fill it at ESPN's price, they move on to Conference Y, then Conference Z.

Unless the mega agreement whether it is one league or a consortium TV deal results in creating brands that move the needle, a breakaway lowers the price rather than increase it because there are now two leagues competing for that scarce TV window.

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(07-29-2016 07:23 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  AAC loses 3 and only refills with 1 to remain at 10:
Rice
MWC expands into TX taking UTEP and UTSA
Leaving 21 schools in CUSA and SBC.
I would merge the 2 creating four divisions with an extra game of playoffs. I'd negotiate our champion getting a New Year's Day game or Playoff spot if ranked in the Top 15.
C-USA
Atlantic Division
FIU
FAU
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion
Mountain Division
Appalachian St
Marshall
WKU
MTSU
Arkansas St
Piedmont Division
Charlotte
Georgia St
UAB
Troy
ULM
Gulf Division
USA
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana
Texas St


I left out UNT

What about Rice? Are they being considered for another conference? If not I would think they'd fit in perfectly in the gulf. But in general this scenario makes a lot sense.

(07-29-2016 08:39 PM)Shonuff Wrote:  

(07-29-2016 07:23 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  AAC loses 3 and only refills with 1 to remain at 10:
Rice
MWC expands into TX taking UTEP and UTSA
Leaving 21 schools in CUSA and SBC.
I would merge the 2 creating four divisions with an extra game of playoffs. I'd negotiate our champion getting a New Year's Day game or Playoff spot if ranked in the Top 15.
C-USA
Atlantic Division
FIU
FAU
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion
Mountain Division
Appalachian St
Marshall
WKU
MTSU
Arkansas St
Piedmont Division
Charlotte
Georgia St
UAB
Troy
ULM
Gulf Division
USA
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana
Texas St


I left out UNT

What about Rice? Are they being considered for another conference? If not I would think they'd fit in perfectly in the gulf. But in general this scenario makes a lot sense.

Like I said, in this scenario Rice replaces Houston in the AAC. It would make sense in a league with Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU. Of course this is all based on other scenarios. Who knows if the AAC expands to 10, 12, or 14; or if the MWC really does want into the TX market. I was just basing this one scenario off what others have suggested. I could do 3 dozen of these based off of who the BIG12 goes with and they could all be radically different. I'm just like every other fan, I want my school to end up in the best case possible. Whether that's a watered down AAC, revamped CUSA, or a mega-merger, I just want to see more and better opportunities available.

Yea... but what about when the SEC adds NCState and VT?
And makes 16 members the new craze.

Who will the ACC RELOAD with, and will they go-to 16?



Is it football season yet?

(07-29-2016 07:23 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  AAC loses 3 and only refills with 1 to remain at 10:
Rice
MWC expands into TX taking UTEP and UTSA
Leaving 21 schools in CUSA and SBC.
I would merge the 2 creating four divisions with an extra game of playoffs. I'd negotiate our champion getting a New Year's Day game or Playoff spot if ranked in the Top 15.
C-USA
Atlantic Division
FIU
FAU
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion
Mountain Division
Appalachian St
Marshall
WKU
MTSU
Arkansas St
Piedmont Division
Charlotte
Georgia St
UAB
Troy
ULM
Gulf Division
USA
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana
Texas St


I left out UNT

Not gonna happen but it summer so here's another option...your geography is a little off if we are talking about saving travel time for Olympic sports. Try 3 divisions and for football have a 4 team playoff (REALLY not gonna happen) but for fun:

Mountain Division:
Coastal Carolina
ODU
Charlotte
App St
Marshall
WKU
MTSU

Southeast Division:
FIU
FAU
Ga Southern
Ga State
UAB
Troy
USA

Mid South Division:
Ark State
ULM
So Miss
La Tech
Louisiana
Texas St
N Texas

If UTSA and Rice are still around add them to the Mid South & move USM to the SE Division. Two divisions would have 8 teams. If only UTSA is left over just add them to the Mid South.

OO
---

Unless B12, AAC, and MWC inexplicably all go to 14, SBC and CUSA have too many teams to merge.

(07-29-2016 07:23 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  AAC loses 3 and only refills with 1 to remain at 10:
Rice
MWC expands into TX taking UTEP and UTSA
Leaving 21 schools in CUSA and SBC.
I would merge the 2 creating four divisions with an extra game of playoffs. I'd negotiate our champion getting a New Year's Day game or Playoff spot if ranked in the Top 15.
C-USA
Atlantic Division
FIU
FAU
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion
Mountain Division
Appalachian St
Marshall
WKU
MTSU
Arkansas St
Piedmont Division
Charlotte
Georgia St
UAB
Troy
ULM
Gulf Division
USA
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana
Texas St


I left out UNT

I think these divisions are really well laid out geographically. If this were put into play this year, that Mountain Division has all the makings of a MMA cage match... producing some must see Big Boy Football.