(06-23-2016 06:18 PM)MUther Wrote: (06-23-2016 02:01 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: I can see how, with nine sacks two seasons ago, fifteen plus in an increased role seems very doable and perhaps it is, but that would pretty much guarantee he'd be top three in the league in sacks this year. I'm not saying it's not possible, but jumping to the top of the league when he's never finished inside the top twenty sounds a bit more daunting than just saying he'll jump from nine to fifteen plus.
Even if he were to get to twelve sacks this year, that would be a great number in the NFL and a good number in fantasy, it's just so much easier to reach on IDP than it is an offensive player, the pool of players to choose from is just so much larger. In 2014 Elvis Dumerville had seventeen sacks, but was only the 33rd highest scoring IDP.
Unless Curry is being talked up by the "experts"(and how often do the major fantasy guys even talk IDP?) I wouldn't be surprised if he goes undrafted in a lot of leagues. I wonder how many teams and defensive roster spots in MUsince96's league.
By his senior year at Marshall he was 1st or 2nd in sacks in the nation for college. Don't see why he couldn't do that in the pros with the right defense and playing time. He obviously has the skill set and instinct for it.
I'm not trying to pick a fight, but you are dramatically over simplifying.
For starters, his senior year he was tied for 6th with 11 sacks he also tied for 6th with 12 his junior year, but if you want reasons he might not replicate that at the NFL I can give you several by just looking at other players to have high sack numbers in college.
2008
1-Jerry Hughes-15(30 career NFL sacks, never more than 10 in a season)
2-Phillip Hunt-14(4 career NFL sacks)
3-Everette Brown-13(7 career NFL sacks)
3-Nick Reed-13(1 career NFL sack)
5-Victor Butler-12(11 career NFL sacks
2009
1-Von Miller-17(60 career NFL sacks, 18.5 in 2012 3rd in the NFL, 14 in 2014 6th in the NFL)
2-Brandon Sharpe-15(0 career NFL sacks)
3-Bruce Miller-13(moved to TE in the NFL)
4-Derrick Morgan-12(26 career NFL sacks)
4-Ndamukong Suh-12(42 career NFL sacks never more than 10 in a season)
2010
1-Da'Quan Bowers-16(7 career sacks in the NFL)
2-Bruce Irvin-14(22 career NFL sacks, no more than 8 in a season)
3-Brandon Jenkins-14(0 NFL sacks)
3-Jonathan Massaquoi-14(6 career NFL sacks)
5-Ryan Kerrigan-13(47.5 career NFL sacks, but only one season with more than 9.5)
2011
1-Whitney Mercilus-16(30 career NFL sacks, 12 in 2015 6th place)
2-Jarvis Jones-14(5 career NFL sacks)
2-Sammy Brown-14(0 career NFL sacks)
3-Brandon Joiner-13(0 career NFL sacks)
3-Trevardo Williams-13(1 career NFL sack)
Of the 20 players that finished in the top 5 in sacks from 2008-2011, only two have been league leaders in the NFL. I'll grant there are some cases like Miller moving to TE and Joiner going to prison, but I believe this is a large enough sample size to show that the correlation you're suggesting exists between NCAA sack leaders and NFL sack leaders simply isn't there.
Again, I'm not suggesting Curry can't do it, just pointing out what a jump it would actually be.