looking... Nats have a shot to get off to a GREAT start....

2 @ Braves
3 Marlins
4 Braves
3 @ Phillies
4 @ Marlins
3 Twins
3 Phillies

so that's 22 games where only the Twins were better than 71 wins. Of course that stretch is followed by 10 game road trip. 3 @ St Louis, 3 @ Kansas City, and 4 @ Cubs. Yikes!

Mets start is pretty normal. have in the same stretch 6 with Phils, 3 Marlins, 3 Braves- but then also 3 Indians, 3 Reds, and 2 with the Royals(including opening night).

looking at your Giants- they see Arizona a TON before the break. 4 In Mid April, 4 more in Mid May, and then 6 right before the All Star break. Dodgers split more- 10 before break. 9 after- including 6 in the last 2 weeks.

don't see any brutal stretches like they had last year.

(01-08-2016 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking at your Giants- they see Arizona a TON before the break. 4 In Mid April, 4 more in Mid May, and then 6 right before the All Star break. Dodgers split more- 10 before break. 9 after- including 6 in the last 2 weeks.

don't see any brutal stretches like they had last year.

that's good. Haven't really sat down to go over the schedule yet, but man that stretch last year was straight up criminal. It seemed like every series was against a WS contender.

One thing that should benefit the Giants pen is the addition of Cueto and Samardzjia. Adding two guys who are almost guaranteed to go 200+ innings will be a big help to a pen that had to start a lot of games in the 5th inning. Between Bumgarner and those two, I'm expecting something around 645 innings. If Cain and Peavy could combine for 320 it would be a miracle.

(01-08-2016 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking... Nats have a shot to get off to a GREAT start....

2 @ Braves
3 Marlins
4 Braves
3 @ Phillies
4 @ Marlins
3 Twins
3 Phillies

so that's 22 games where only the Twins were better than 71 wins. Of course that stretch is followed by 10 game road trip. 3 @ St Louis, 3 @ Kansas City, and 4 @ Cubs. Yikes!

Mets start is pretty normal. have in the same stretch 6 with Phils, 3 Marlins, 3 Braves- but then also 3 Indians, 3 Reds, and 2 with the Royals(including opening night).

aren't you worried about facing the Braves rotation? Oh wait

(01-08-2016 11:45 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking at your Giants- they see Arizona a TON before the break. 4 In Mid April, 4 more in Mid May, and then 6 right before the All Star break. Dodgers split more- 10 before break. 9 after- including 6 in the last 2 weeks.

don't see any brutal stretches like they had last year.

that's good. Haven't really sat down to go over the schedule yet, but man that stretch last year was straight up criminal. It seemed like every series was against a WS contender.

One thing that should benefit the Giants pen is the addition of Cueto and Samardzjia. Adding two guys who are almost guaranteed to go 200+ innings will be a big help to a pen that had to start a lot of games in the 5th inning. Between Bumgarner and those two, I'm expecting something around 645 innings. If Cain and Peavy could combine for 320 it would be a miracle.

it'll be interesting to see how Heston does this year as well. Gave the Giants 177.2 innings. Only 28 guys had more innings in the NL than Heston did. amazing how guys like that now are just worth their weight in gold.

(01-08-2016 12:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 11:45 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking at your Giants- they see Arizona a TON before the break. 4 In Mid April, 4 more in Mid May, and then 6 right before the All Star break. Dodgers split more- 10 before break. 9 after- including 6 in the last 2 weeks.

don't see any brutal stretches like they had last year.

that's good. Haven't really sat down to go over the schedule yet, but man that stretch last year was straight up criminal. It seemed like every series was against a WS contender.

One thing that should benefit the Giants pen is the addition of Cueto and Samardzjia. Adding two guys who are almost guaranteed to go 200+ innings will be a big help to a pen that had to start a lot of games in the 5th inning. Between Bumgarner and those two, I'm expecting something around 645 innings. If Cain and Peavy could combine for 320 it would be a miracle.

it'll be interesting to see how Heston does this year as well. Gave the Giants 177.2 innings. Only 28 guys had more innings in the NL than Heston did. amazing how guys like that now are just worth their weight in gold.

He'll start the season as the long man, but I'm sure he'll get plenty of starts. I can't say I have much faith in him though. After the break his K's stayed the same, but his BB and HR shot up to insane levels, making for a 5.26 FIP. If his K's stay around 7 per 9 IP and he can get his walks back to 2.7/9 and his HR rate to around 1 per 9, he'll be solid enough. But those are big Ifs

(01-08-2016 10:11 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  I think overall the Giants are in a solid position and should be able to compete with the Dodgers for the division.

Giants and Dodgers share a challenge: Too much aging, less reliable talent. It sounds like the Dodgers may have slightly better depth than SF but not a ton more. I'm hopeful that at least one of the SPs in the Dodger minor league system is ready to move up with the big boys this year. Kershaw + "depth" might get them a division title or wild card but it's not going to go deep in the playoffs.

(01-08-2016 11:45 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking... Nats have a shot to get off to a GREAT start....

2 @ Braves
3 Marlins
4 Braves
3 @ Phillies
4 @ Marlins
3 Twins
3 Phillies

so that's 22 games where only the Twins were better than 71 wins. Of course that stretch is followed by 10 game road trip. 3 @ St Louis, 3 @ Kansas City, and 4 @ Cubs. Yikes!

Mets start is pretty normal. have in the same stretch 6 with Phils, 3 Marlins, 3 Braves- but then also 3 Indians, 3 Reds, and 2 with the Royals(including opening night).

aren't you worried about facing the Braves rotation? Oh wait

Heeeeyyy! Easy now, kimosabe.

(01-08-2016 05:13 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 11:45 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking... Nats have a shot to get off to a GREAT start....

2 @ Braves
3 Marlins
4 Braves
3 @ Phillies
4 @ Marlins
3 Twins
3 Phillies

so that's 22 games where only the Twins were better than 71 wins. Of course that stretch is followed by 10 game road trip. 3 @ St Louis, 3 @ Kansas City, and 4 @ Cubs. Yikes!

Mets start is pretty normal. have in the same stretch 6 with Phils, 3 Marlins, 3 Braves- but then also 3 Indians, 3 Reds, and 2 with the Royals(including opening night).

aren't you worried about facing the Braves rotation? Oh wait

Heeeeyyy! Easy now, kimosabe.

Um, you are right. It is easy now!!!!!!

(01-08-2016 05:13 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 11:45 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking... Nats have a shot to get off to a GREAT start....

2 @ Braves
3 Marlins
4 Braves
3 @ Phillies
4 @ Marlins
3 Twins
3 Phillies

so that's 22 games where only the Twins were better than 71 wins. Of course that stretch is followed by 10 game road trip. 3 @ St Louis, 3 @ Kansas City, and 4 @ Cubs. Yikes!

Mets start is pretty normal. have in the same stretch 6 with Phils, 3 Marlins, 3 Braves- but then also 3 Indians, 3 Reds, and 2 with the Royals(including opening night).

aren't you worried about facing the Braves rotation? Oh wait

Heeeeyyy! Easy now, kimosabe.

Fine..who's the ace?

Looks like Storen going to the Jays for Revere

(01-08-2016 10:26 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Looks like Storen going to the Jays for Revere

GREAT trade for the Nats. gets rid of Storen finally(he couldn't return), and gets a pretty solid outfielder- with an extra year of team control. Also another lefty bat. Which is huge considering all the Mets pitchers are righty.

(01-08-2016 10:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:26 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Looks like Storen going to the Jays for Revere

GREAT trade for the Nats. gets rid of Storen finally(he couldn't return), and gets a pretty solid outfielder- with an extra year of team control. Also another lefty bat. Which is huge considering all the Mets pitchers are righty.

yea it seems like a good move. He's averaged 2 WAR each of the past 2 seasons. Funny thing is, 2 WAR is a league average player, and his hitting and defense are both just about league average. Doesn't BB, but also doesn't K. Not really sure why the Jays did this

(01-08-2016 08:39 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 05:13 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 11:45 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(01-08-2016 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  looking... Nats have a shot to get off to a GREAT start....

2 @ Braves
3 Marlins
4 Braves
3 @ Phillies
4 @ Marlins
3 Twins
3 Phillies

so that's 22 games where only the Twins were better than 71 wins. Of course that stretch is followed by 10 game road trip. 3 @ St Louis, 3 @ Kansas City, and 4 @ Cubs. Yikes!

Mets start is pretty normal. have in the same stretch 6 with Phils, 3 Marlins, 3 Braves- but then also 3 Indians, 3 Reds, and 2 with the Royals(including opening night).

aren't you worried about facing the Braves rotation? Oh wait

Heeeeyyy! Easy now, kimosabe.

Fine..who's the ace?

saw the Nats kicking the tires maybe on Bronson Arroyo. Would be a terrific type of deal with little/no risk.

(01-25-2016 06:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  saw the Nats kicking the tires maybe on Bronson Arroyo. Would be a terrific type of deal with little/no risk.

would be a shock, as no one seems to want to sign with them.

OMG they got Arroyo. Nats finally got another player to come on board

Nats have had a decent off season. Gotten a few relief arms. Revere deal was a good one. plus, and I regret not finding it at the time- heard of something on fangraphs where the nats are projected to have the biggest bump from returning players of any team in the bigs I think it was.

Arroyo a great move- just a minor league deal with a ML Invite. If he's back to being where he was pre-Tommy John- it's a steal. If he's done, no real cost at all whatsoever.

found the article...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-forgo...offseason/

Nationals:
Despite a projected three-win regression from Bryce Harper, because even Bryce Harper shouldn’t be expected to repeat a 10-win season, the Nationals top the list. Which is fitting, because the Nationals were last season’s biggest disappointment, and yet the Nationals are again projected as the best team in the NL East, by a five-game margin. This is the big reason why.

Rendon shouldn’t be expected to miss half the season due to injuries, and assuming full health, he should also be better when he plays. Before the Nationals even made a move this offseason, they could factor in an extra ~3 WAR, just due to a clean slate from Rendon, who looked like an emerging superstar at 25 just a year ago. Strasburg pitched like Clayton Kershaw in the second half, and shouldn’t be expected to have an ERA over five through May again. Extra two wins there. A healthier season from Werth, a better BABIP and more normalized strikeout rate from Ramos and fewer expected home runs from Roark could mix in up to four more wins from the Nats returning regulars.

and on the other side:
Giants:
Steamer still thinks the Giants have a great infield, just maybe not the best infield in baseball again. Even if you think this looks a bit overly pessimistic, it’s easy to at least see where it’s coming from. Duffy came out of nowhere — an 18th-round draft pick who skipped Triple-A and didn’t do anything in his brief 2014 debut — and turned in a star performance last year. That Duffy is even projected as an above-average starter (+3 WAR) is remarkable, given where he was a year ago, but he isn’t seen as a star just yet. Panik was seen as a low-ceiling player who had never hit in the minors, and turned in a star performance last year. That he’s even projected as an above-average starter (+3 WAR) is remarkable, given where he was a year ago, but he isn’t seen as a star just yet.

As for Crawford, his projection seems particularly bearish. While last year’s power spike was unprecedented and likely unsustainable, he’s significantly outhit his projected wRC+ each of the last two seasons, and the defensive metrics never matched the eye test until this season, which are perhaps unfairly muting his defensive projection. Like Duffy and Panik, Crawford probably isn’t the star-level player he was last season, so you probably wouldn’t be wrong to confidently take the over on 2.2 WAR, but some regression should be expected.

(01-26-2016 11:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  found the article...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-forgo...offseason/

Nationals:
Despite a projected three-win regression from Bryce Harper, because even Bryce Harper shouldn’t be expected to repeat a 10-win season, the Nationals top the list. Which is fitting, because the Nationals were last season’s biggest disappointment, and yet the Nationals are again projected as the best team in the NL East, by a five-game margin. This is the big reason why.

Rendon shouldn’t be expected to miss half the season due to injuries, and assuming full health, he should also be better when he plays. Before the Nationals even made a move this offseason, they could factor in an extra ~3 WAR, just due to a clean slate from Rendon, who looked like an emerging superstar at 25 just a year ago. Strasburg pitched like Clayton Kershaw in the second half, and shouldn’t be expected to have an ERA over five through May again. Extra two wins there. A healthier season from Werth, a better BABIP and more normalized strikeout rate from Ramos and fewer expected home runs from Roark could mix in up to four more wins from the Nats returning regulars.

and on the other side:
Giants:
Steamer still thinks the Giants have a great infield, just maybe not the best infield in baseball again. Even if you think this looks a bit overly pessimistic, it’s easy to at least see where it’s coming from. Duffy came out of nowhere — an 18th-round draft pick who skipped Triple-A and didn’t do anything in his brief 2014 debut — and turned in a star performance last year. That Duffy is even projected as an above-average starter (+3 WAR) is remarkable, given where he was a year ago, but he isn’t seen as a star just yet. Panik was seen as a low-ceiling player who had never hit in the minors, and turned in a star performance last year. That he’s even projected as an above-average starter (+3 WAR) is remarkable, given where he was a year ago, but he isn’t seen as a star just yet.

As for Crawford, his projection seems particularly bearish. While last year’s power spike was unprecedented and likely unsustainable, he’s significantly outhit his projected wRC+ each of the last two seasons, and the defensive metrics never matched the eye test until this season, which are perhaps unfairly muting his defensive projection. Like Duffy and Panik, Crawford probably isn’t the star-level player he was last season, so you probably wouldn’t be wrong to confidently take the over on 2.2 WAR, but some regression should be expected.

yea I read that. It's whatever. Sometimes hard to put stock in stuff like that. Like I think Belt is a sure bet to be a 4 WAR player, but Steamer doesn't see that because it takes into account his injury wracked season a couple years ago. I mean getting hit in the head twice in one season and having 2 concussions is not his fault