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MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #41
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
The top three prospects involved in trades this offseason were all acquired by the Braves, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair sit atop Cooper’s ranking of the top 25 prospects who were dealt this winter. Swanson and Blair came to Atlanta as part of the Shelby Miller trade with Arizona while Newcomb was part of the package that came to the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons deal with the Angels.

Well, hopefully we can make hay sometime in late 2016 or 2017.
01-04-2016 11:46 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #42
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-04-2016 11:46 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  The top three prospects involved in trades this offseason were all acquired by the Braves, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair sit atop Cooper’s ranking of the top 25 prospects who were dealt this winter. Swanson and Blair came to Atlanta as part of the Shelby Miller trade with Arizona while Newcomb was part of the package that came to the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons deal with the Angels.

Well, hopefully we can make hay sometime in late 2016 or 2017.

A good farm system was lacking that top end talent. Seems like they found it
01-05-2016 01:23 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #43
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
Giants with another good signing, giving Span 3 years. Not enamored with the length of the deal, but Steamer projects him to contribute 2.2 WAR, which is nearly 3 more than what Pagan put up last year. So I'll take it
01-07-2016 05:56 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #44
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-07-2016 05:56 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Giants with another good signing, giving Span 3 years. Not enamored with the length of the deal, but Steamer projects him to contribute 2.2 WAR, which is nearly 3 more than what Pagan put up last year. So I'll take it

How do ya'll think the Nats are going to do this season? The Mets will undoubtedly be better. Braves still re-tooling. Marlins? You never know.
01-07-2016 07:51 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
Question for Span is how much he's going to be able to play. Last year- just 61 games. in 3 of the last 5 years he's missed at least 34 games- with 2 years of 70 and 61 games.

I don't know that you can say the Mets will undoubtedly be better. They had no pitching injuries last year at all. Their top 5 starters made 143 starts. Will their pen be as good late as it was this year? Also, where will the offense come from? They have a ton of questions....

Nats will be interesting. The rotation with Scherzer, Gonzalez, Strasburg, Ross leading it will be really good. Guessing Roark as 5th starter until Giolito is ready. Pen overall should be improved. Offense will be good I think.
01-07-2016 10:04 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #46
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-07-2016 10:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Question for Span is how much he's going to be able to play. Last year- just 61 games. in 3 of the last 5 years he's missed at least 34 games- with 2 years of 70 and 61 games.

I don't know that you can say the Mets will undoubtedly be better. They had no pitching injuries last year at all. Their top 5 starters made 143 starts. Will their pen be as good late as it was this year? Also, where will the offense come from? They have a ton of questions....

Nats will be interesting. The rotation with Scherzer, Gonzalez, Strasburg, Ross leading it will be really good. Guessing Roark as 5th starter until Giolito is ready. Pen overall should be improved. Offense will be good I think.

i like how everyone is screwed, but the Nats will be interesting. They gained Murphy and lost Zimmermann and Escobar, which is a net negative. Once again, if Rendon doesn't have a great year and Zimmerman has any kind of injury, the offense will be the same as last year: Harper dominating without much help. Zimmerman is 31 and has missed a combined 160+ games in the last 2 seasons, so the chances of him getting hurt are similar to Span's. Can the Nats go all the way? Of course. The Cubs are the best team in the league, but there's no reason the Nats can't win the division and knock off any team in the postseason. And as for the Mets, their lineup is a bit of a question mark and their pen is as well. Of course having the best rotation in baseball is a major plus. That division is clearly a 2 horse race. But the Mets have the edge in pitching and I think their hitting is as least as good, if not better. Granderson, Duda, D'arnaud, Conforto and Walker is a solid top 5. And Wright and Cabrera are probably solid enough pieces to complement those 5
01-07-2016 11:19 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
J Zimmermann wasn't anywhere near as good last year as he was in the past. His ERA/FIP was both down a full run from the year before.

The Nats pitching will be better this year. for one, the pen isn't going to be the dumpster fire it was. They've gotten a number of arms. Hopefully get a full season from Strasburg and Ross. And then Giolito maybe later in the season. So losing Zimmermann really isn't the HUGE loss you think. Murphy/Escobar a wash. Keys will be Rendon coming back, and then Zimmerman staying healthy. And I don't think the Nats are done yet necessarily either.

The Mets pitching- lets see how Harvey comes back after throwing 216 innings last year. That's a huge x factor. If something happens with him, they're counting on Niese and Colon again. Really don't think you can say for sure that the Mets have the edge in pitching. And offense has a lot of question marks for the mets.
01-08-2016 12:56 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
the thing folks need to remember. Last year by runs- the Nats and Mets should have been exactly the same record. Mets were +70 and Nats were +68. Mets had a decent manager. Nats had a bumbling idiot.
01-08-2016 01:16 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #49
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 12:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  J Zimmermann wasn't anywhere near as good last year as he was in the past. His ERA/FIP was both down a full run from the year before.

The Nats pitching will be better this year. for one, the pen isn't going to be the dumpster fire it was. They've gotten a number of arms. Hopefully get a full season from Strasburg and Ross. And then Giolito maybe later in the season. So losing Zimmermann really isn't the HUGE loss you think. Murphy/Escobar a wash. Keys will be Rendon coming back, and then Zimmerman staying healthy. And I don't think the Nats are done yet necessarily either.

The Mets pitching- lets see how Harvey comes back after throwing 216 innings last year. That's a huge x factor. If something happens with him, they're counting on Niese and Colon again. Really don't think you can say for sure that the Mets have the edge in pitching. And offense has a lot of question marks for the mets.

Niese isn't even on the team anymore and Colon is the 6th starter. Zimmermann's bWAR was 3.5, so he wasn't exactly a mediocre pitcher. He was quite clearly their 2nd best SP.

What relief arms did the Nats pick up?
01-08-2016 09:33 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #50
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 01:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing folks need to remember. Last year by runs- the Nats and Mets should have been exactly the same record. Mets were +70 and Nats were +68. Mets had a decent manager. Nats had a bumbling idiot.

i definitely think the Nats and Mets are pretty equal. Remember, picking one team to have a better record by like 2 games is a meaningless difference. Assuming the normal amount of injuries, I think the division will come down to September.
01-08-2016 09:38 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
Z was a good pitcher last year. But it's not the HUGE loss. Gio(with a 2.8 WAR last year), Strasburg(2.1 in only 23 starts), and Ross(1.4 in 14 starts) will be ok.

and look at this. last year Zimmerman had a 3.66 ERA. The Nats starters as a whole had a 3.70 ERA.
and 2nd half of the season- post all star break- he had a 4.20 ERA, while the Nats starters as a whole had a 3.71 ERA. 4th best starter behind Scherzer, Gio, and Strasburg.

Trevor Gott- Escobar trade
Oliver Perez
Yusmeiro Petit
Nick Masset
Aaron Laffey

Gott, Perez, Petit the big 3. plus some of the other guys around for the Nats have another year of experience...

Another thing to remember...
Nats last year had a 176 million dollar payroll. Right now, Nats projected at 147 million.
Mets last year had a 99 million dollar payroll. Right now, Mets projected at 106 million

so while the Mets are probably done, the Nats could easily still get another piece or two.
01-08-2016 09:56 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 09:38 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 01:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing folks need to remember. Last year by runs- the Nats and Mets should have been exactly the same record. Mets were +70 and Nats were +68. Mets had a decent manager. Nats had a bumbling idiot.

i definitely think the Nats and Mets are pretty equal. Remember, picking one team to have a better record by like 2 games is a meaningless difference. Assuming the normal amount of injuries, I think the division will come down to September.

yep. I definitely think you're right. I just think the guy who said that the Mets would be undoubtedly better is wrong. It's very easy to see regression from them this year. like I've said, Harvey is a HUGE X factor for them. There really is not much there to say good or bad how he's going to be.
01-08-2016 09:58 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #53
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 09:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 09:38 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 01:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing folks need to remember. Last year by runs- the Nats and Mets should have been exactly the same record. Mets were +70 and Nats were +68. Mets had a decent manager. Nats had a bumbling idiot.

i definitely think the Nats and Mets are pretty equal. Remember, picking one team to have a better record by like 2 games is a meaningless difference. Assuming the normal amount of injuries, I think the division will come down to September.

yep. I definitely think you're right. I just think the guy who said that the Mets would be undoubtedly better is wrong. It's very easy to see regression from them this year. like I've said, Harvey is a HUGE X factor for them. There really is not much there to say good or bad how he's going to be.

no doubt. I think both teams have pretty high floors. One of the big problems for the Mets is that they're one D'arnaud injury away from having absolutely no RHH. And let's be real, a D'arnaud injury is as likely as a Span or Zimmerman injury. Another question is, can Granderson repeat last year's excellent performance?
01-08-2016 10:02 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #54
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
To me, the Giants 3 biggest questions are:

#1- the outfield: Signing Span was smart, because if healthy he's guaranteed to put up around 2.5 - 3.5 WAR, which is a vast improvement over what we had in CF last season. Of course, the likelihood of him having a healthy season is slim and anyone who thinks otherwise is more than a tad naive. The other 3 OF are Pagan, Blanco and Pence. The former is old and not even a good player and the other two are over 30 as well, with Pence coming off a season with a couple major injuries. So there is talent in the OF, but there's also a ton of age. It's very likely this group will have a few DL trips to their name by the end of the year.

#2- the bullpen: I think Osich and Strickland will improve upon their inconsistent 2015's and be major contributors to a solid pen, but that's not a guarantee and nor is the performance of guys like Romo, Casilla, Lopez and Kontos. They have a lot of innings on their arms and it's likely they'll be facing DL trips as well. Luckily the strength of the weak farm system is its relief arms, so help should be on the way.

#3- Starting rotation: Adding Cueto and Samardzjia was a good idea for a team that needs to go for it while it's stars are in their primes, but those guys + Peavy and Cain, come with question marks. How is Cueto's elbow and was his time with the Royals an outlier or the new normal? I'm actually not that worried about Samardzjia, as I believe a horrible confluence of factors made for his terrible season. But if last year's K rate wasn't an outlier, the Giants will be staring down the barrel of a slightly better Mike Leake, which as we all know, would not be ideal. As for Peavy and Cain, I actually think the former is a solid pitcher, but there's little chance of him being able to throw more than 170 innings. Cain is the biggest question mark. At this point I can't say I have much hope left for any kind of return to form. I'd take 175 innings with a 4.00 ERA.

I think overall the Giants are in a solid position and should be able to compete with the Dodgers for the division. I doubt there are any more moves coming, which leaves the 5th OF spot as the only question. I hope Mac Williamson gets it and platoons with Blanco, but the idea of Pagan not playing is naive bordering on insanity.
01-08-2016 10:11 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 10:02 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 09:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 09:38 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 01:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing folks need to remember. Last year by runs- the Nats and Mets should have been exactly the same record. Mets were +70 and Nats were +68. Mets had a decent manager. Nats had a bumbling idiot.

i definitely think the Nats and Mets are pretty equal. Remember, picking one team to have a better record by like 2 games is a meaningless difference. Assuming the normal amount of injuries, I think the division will come down to September.

yep. I definitely think you're right. I just think the guy who said that the Mets would be undoubtedly better is wrong. It's very easy to see regression from them this year. like I've said, Harvey is a HUGE X factor for them. There really is not much there to say good or bad how he's going to be.

no doubt. I think both teams have pretty high floors. One of the big problems for the Mets is that they're one D'arnaud injury away from having absolutely no RHH. And let's be real, a D'arnaud injury is as likely as a Span or Zimmerman injury. Another question is, can Granderson repeat last year's excellent performance?
that's another thing the Nats did- they got Murphy and Stephen Drew even- both lefty bats. Last year, the Nats had not even 30% of their at bats taken by lefty batters 29.7%. The MLB average was 41.4%.

And of the 1612 nats lh at bats- Harper took 521 of them. So I think that helps the Nats out some this year....

And speaking to your point with the Mets- 53% of their at bats were taken by lefties last year.
01-08-2016 10:14 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 10:11 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  To me, the Giants 3 biggest questions are:

#1- the outfield: Signing Span was smart, because if healthy he's guaranteed to put up around 2.5 - 3.5 WAR, which is a vast improvement over what we had in CF last season. Of course, the likelihood of him having a healthy season is slim and anyone who thinks otherwise is more than a tad naive. The other 3 OF are Pagan, Blanco and Pence. The former is old and not even a good player and the other two are over 30 as well, with Pence coming off a season with a couple major injuries. So there is talent in the OF, but there's also a ton of age. It's very likely this group will have a few DL trips to their name by the end of the year.

#2- the bullpen: I think Osich and Strickland will improve upon their inconsistent 2015's and be major contributors to a solid pen, but that's not a guarantee and nor is the performance of guys like Romo, Casilla, Lopez and Kontos. They have a lot of innings on their arms and it's likely they'll be facing DL trips as well. Luckily the strength of the weak farm system is its relief arms, so help should be on the way.

#3- Starting rotation: Adding Cueto and Samardzjia was a good idea for a team that needs to go for it while it's stars are in their primes, but those guys + Peavy and Cain, come with question marks. How is Cueto's elbow and was his time with the Royals an outlier or the new normal? I'm actually not that worried about Samardzjia, as I believe a horrible confluence of factors made for his terrible season. But if last year's K rate wasn't an outlier, the Giants will be staring down the barrel of a slightly better Mike Leake, which as we all know, would not be ideal. As for Peavy and Cain, I actually think the former is a solid pitcher, but there's little chance of him being able to throw more than 170 innings. Cain is the biggest question mark. At this point I can't say I have much hope left for any kind of return to form. I'd take 175 innings with a 4.00 ERA.

I think overall the Giants are in a solid position and should be able to compete with the Dodgers for the division. I doubt there are any more moves coming, which leaves the 5th OF spot as the only question. I hope Mac Williamson gets it and platoons with Blanco, but the idea of Pagan not playing is naive bordering on insanity.

It's interesting. I was looking at Cain's stats yesterday. It's remarkable how he just went off a cliff. If he can give you just what Lincecum gave you last year 75 innings with a low 4 ERA, I think you take that to the bank....

The thing that'll be interesting for the Giants is the division is so much tougher this year.

Also, have to play the AL East this year interleague- means 8 more east coast games this year. Tampa, Boston, and Yankees.
01-08-2016 10:26 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #57
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 10:26 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-08-2016 10:11 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  To me, the Giants 3 biggest questions are:

#1- the outfield: Signing Span was smart, because if healthy he's guaranteed to put up around 2.5 - 3.5 WAR, which is a vast improvement over what we had in CF last season. Of course, the likelihood of him having a healthy season is slim and anyone who thinks otherwise is more than a tad naive. The other 3 OF are Pagan, Blanco and Pence. The former is old and not even a good player and the other two are over 30 as well, with Pence coming off a season with a couple major injuries. So there is talent in the OF, but there's also a ton of age. It's very likely this group will have a few DL trips to their name by the end of the year.

#2- the bullpen: I think Osich and Strickland will improve upon their inconsistent 2015's and be major contributors to a solid pen, but that's not a guarantee and nor is the performance of guys like Romo, Casilla, Lopez and Kontos. They have a lot of innings on their arms and it's likely they'll be facing DL trips as well. Luckily the strength of the weak farm system is its relief arms, so help should be on the way.

#3- Starting rotation: Adding Cueto and Samardzjia was a good idea for a team that needs to go for it while it's stars are in their primes, but those guys + Peavy and Cain, come with question marks. How is Cueto's elbow and was his time with the Royals an outlier or the new normal? I'm actually not that worried about Samardzjia, as I believe a horrible confluence of factors made for his terrible season. But if last year's K rate wasn't an outlier, the Giants will be staring down the barrel of a slightly better Mike Leake, which as we all know, would not be ideal. As for Peavy and Cain, I actually think the former is a solid pitcher, but there's little chance of him being able to throw more than 170 innings. Cain is the biggest question mark. At this point I can't say I have much hope left for any kind of return to form. I'd take 175 innings with a 4.00 ERA.

I think overall the Giants are in a solid position and should be able to compete with the Dodgers for the division. I doubt there are any more moves coming, which leaves the 5th OF spot as the only question. I hope Mac Williamson gets it and platoons with Blanco, but the idea of Pagan not playing is naive bordering on insanity.

It's interesting. I was looking at Cain's stats yesterday. It's remarkable how he just went off a cliff. If he can give you just what Lincecum gave you last year 75 innings with a low 4 ERA, I think you take that to the bank....

The thing that'll be interesting for the Giants is the division is so much tougher this year.

Also, have to play the AL East this year interleague- means 8 more east coast games this year. Tampa, Boston, and Yankees.

Yeah man those east coast games are brutal. The Marlins and Nats series were killers. Of course the Rangers series also sunk us, so there's that.

And yes the division will be tougher. The dodgers haven't really improved, but obviously the Dbags are better. Losing Inciarte is not going to do their OF defense any favors, but they're obviously an improved team that should compete for the postseason.
01-08-2016 10:29 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
one great thing. Only 12 weeks from Sunday until opening day!!!! 1st spring training games 7 weeks from Tuesday!
01-08-2016 10:31 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #59
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
Luckily the Red Sox series is just 2 games and has an off day on each side
01-08-2016 10:33 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #60
RE: MLB 2015/16 Hot Stove Thread
(01-08-2016 10:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  one great thing. Only 12 weeks from Sunday until opening day!!!! 1st spring training games 7 weeks from Tuesday!

Thank god. Football was such a sh*t show and the NBA is just gonna come down to the Cavs and Warriors again, so what's the point?
01-08-2016 10:34 AM
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